There are storm clouds on the horizon. A day after Mitt Romney’s massive win in Florida he opened his mouth and promptly told conservatives he was incapable of articulating conservatism.

Then Newt Gingrich found a bright line rule in the Republican rules that clearly and precisely states that all delegates awarded before April 1, 2012, must be proportional. There goes giving Romney all fifty delegates from Florida despite what Florida’s GOP Chairman says.

Then National Review and other Romney supporters , taking a bit of comfort in his secure win in Florida, decided they could finally express some buyers remorse, or at least now stop zealously defending him and criticize him some.

Then people really examined the exit polls in Florida. What they found was that turnout fell from 2008. But in counties where turn out was up, Newt Gingrich won. Where turnout from 2008 was down, Romney won. This pattern followed South Carolina. The base remains unexcited about Romney and his comments yesterday about the poor and the social safety net keep the base from getting excited.

What should have been Mitt Romney heading into February securing his nomination now becomes an effort to stave off a rear guard action to pick him off. Gingrich and Santorum now have the ammunition they need to keep the Great Coalescing from happening.

What should have been a clear path to the nomination is suddenly in jeopardy.

We’ll get into it all in the Horserace.

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This is it. The final debate before Florida will be tonight from Jacksonville, FL on CNN. It may be the final debate of the primary season. If it becomes just Mitt, Newt, and Ron, there is no way that MItt Romney will want to share the stage with them after tonight.

I’ll be on CNN for post debate coverage, though I’ll be in Atlanta tonight. All you need to know is that the latest CNN poll has something like a 22 point swing toward Newt Gingrich, but a lot of post South Carolina polling settled back down from irrational exuberance to Romney still ahead.

Tonight, expect a concerted Romney effort to bring out the really angry Newt. Expect Gingrich to try to throw off Romney. In fact, we may not hear from Santorum and Paul unless they get called on. This is all the Mitt and Newt show. They don’t like each other and both have a lot on the line.

One wild card factor — does Rick Santorum stay in? There are rumors circulating he may drop out before Florida because he is out of money. His campaign says no. But we’ll see. If he leaves, polls show most of his voters go to Gingrich, but I’m not sure that’s actually right.

We’ll get into it all below the fold.

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It changed so suddenly. Huntsman out Monday. Today, Rick Perry is out.

Huntsman, barely a factor in South Carolina, threw his support to Mitt Romney. Rick Perry, more of a factor, threw his support to Gingrich. The Monday debate in South Carolina is a critical detail. Polling before it showed a Romney lead. Polling after it showed a Gingrich surge.

Then Sarah Palin endorsed Newt Gingrich.

Then news broke that Rick Santorum, not Mitt Romney, really won Iowa.

Then Rick Perry dropped out and endorsed Newt Gingrich.

Tonight, at 8pm ET, there is a CNN debate.

Then Saturday, the voters vote.

And behind scenes there is a quiet operation — an operation designed to get Ron Paul the nomination in a fractured field. All the week’s events play right into Dr. Paul’s plan that few even see coming.

We’ll get into it all in the Horserace.

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It’s a different horserace of sorts this week and from here on out. Gone are the individual prospects of each candidate. We have the real front runner now — Mitt Romney. The question remaining is which candidate, if any, can cause Mitt to stumble.

No non-incumbent has ever swept Iowa and New Hampshire within a Republican Primary until Mitt Romney. He did it while getting less votes in 2012 in Iowa than he got in 2008, but with substantially more votes in New Hampshire, including among independents.

With 1.80% of delegates selected for the Republican nomination, Willard Mitt Romney looks like he is going to sweep the field. It is striking how these things get wrapped up so quickly. By March 6th, which is this year’s Super Tuesday, 40% of the delegates will be selected. The other 60% won’t be selected until after after Super Tuesday. But we may have the nominee by then.

There is, however, still time for someone else to make a come back. A poll released just today by Insider Advantage as Newt Gingrich within two points of Mitt Romney in South Carolina. Gingrich’s affiliated Super PAC has decided to throw everything possible at MItt Romney in an effort to stop him.

Since the advent of the modern elections calendar, the nomination for President typically does end by Florida. The delegates are winner take all and both momentum and money flow to the person who wins South Carolina. Since 1980, no Republican has gotten the nomination for President without winning South Carolina. Conventional wisdom suggests it is Mitt Romney’s race. It is.

But conventional wisdom is overlooking one thing.

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Nobody knows the winner of Iowa but Jesus. That’s the dirty little secret.

Matt Lewis hits the nail on the head on this. Nobody knows. Why? Well, the caucuses are a big event. You don’t just go into a voting booth, check a box, and leave. You’re there for a while. You hear speeches. You get persuaded. Then you vote.

It is slow going.

And we don’t know who will turn out. Even the best pollsters have a hard time getting the caucuses right.

We can guess that Ron Paul and Mitt Romney will be in the top three. But as for the third who may finish in second place or may finish in third place? It could be Gingrich. It could be Perry. It could be a late surging Rick Santorum.

It’s anybody’s game, but one thing is certain. If Perry or Gingrich are in the top three, we have a real race headed into South Carolina. If it is Santorum, we might as well sit back and declare Mitt Romney the nominee.

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We’re headed into Christmas and people are starting to tune out. Before they tune out, the last images they are seeing before setting their eyes on a Christmas tree, are Newt Gingrich under attack from Team Romney, Ron Paul under attack from everyone, Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry on a bus tour in Iowa, and Rick Santorum getting help from evangelicals.

The clock ticks down to the actual start of the race in just over a week. Iowa voters will go to the caucuses and start us down the road to the White House.

Even though people are checking out and tuning out, there is still time for a shake up and there are two trends in Iowa that all the polls are showing. Rick Perry is going up. Newt Gingrich is going down.

We’ll get into it all in the Horserace today.

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We are less than a month from the Iowa Caucuses. As we wind the clock down I think it is important to note that the 2012 campaign season might present the most damning indictment yet of the ineptness of political reporting about the Republican campaign season.

Since November of 2010, political reporters in this nation have been telling us Mitt Romney would be the nominee. And while I completely agree and have said I expect it, the political reporters in this nation have routinely, and I am beginning to think intentionally, failed to report on what I think is and remains the biggest story this campaign season.

The man who should be the front runner and who should be walking away with the nomination has had since March of 2008 to lock down his lead as the Republican nominee and less than one month from the start of Campaign 2012, 80% of Republican voters want nothing to do with him and a third would rather go to the fight with a retread from the Clinton era than Mitt Romney.

For months and months the media establishment in Washington and New York has avoided this story even though since August of 2012 Mitt Romney has never been the front runner for more than a few days between the implosions and rises of the various alternatives to him.

Only now the media is beginning to tell the story and even now the media focus is more on what Mitt Romney needs to do than what Mitt Romney did wrong. Even more humorously, when the media does go for “what went wrong,” they cannot help themselves but fixate on Mormonism when poll after poll shows Mitt Romney’s faith will be more a weight on him with independent voters than Republican primary voters.

There is another story too as we get to the Horserace this week. It is on the failure of the professional political class in Washington, D.C. The professional political class has failed Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Rick Perry, Jon Huntsman, and the list goes on. Sure, when God serves up a lemon of a candidate, there is only so much a consultant can do. But very few have successfully made lemonade with any of the candidates. Even with Gingrich, his rise has more to do with his debate performances than his consultants.

These two stories — the failure of the political press to get the stories right and the failure of the political consultant class to get the candidates right — are not written about enough. And both impact the horserace for 2012. And the muddied stories of both these problems may interweave directly to a brokered convention. I think it is time to move beyond wishful thinking and take seriously the idea of having a brokered convention with someone other than the current crop of candidates becoming the nominee. And that, for the first time, adds a new candidate to this week’s horserace, Mr. None of the Above.

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We are a month away from the actual horserace, but it has been going on a while. I have said repeatedly that the race is Mitt Romney’s to lose. It looks like he just might lose it.

The race is Romney’s to lose because the race has settled against his favor. The race has settled in “Not Romney’s” favor. The problem, though, is “Not Romney” is not on the ballot. Because the 75% of Republican voters who do not want Mitt Romney cannot settle on an alternative, Mitt holding steady at second place benefits him. The 75% will divide up around him while his 25% holds steady.

But few of us, including me, could see Newt’s resurgence. Brought on in an unusually debate heavy campaign season, the money has started pouring in and Newt has risen to replace Romney. Not only that, but Newt’s rise has seen Romney’s numbers start to fall. There is panic in the Romney camp.

Herman Cain’s implosion has prompted more consolidation away from Romney toward Gingrich.

The question now is can Gingrich overcome his Sisyphean legacy? Gingrich historically has reached the top of the political pile only to spectacularly roll back down it. Conservatives in the 90′s came to loath him as an obstruction to conservative dominance. During the George W. Bush years, Gingrich charted a third way that is now starting to come back on him.

If Gingrich can weather the storm for the next three weeks, it becomes Newt Gingrich’s race to lose. History is against him. The voters, so far, are for him. Waiting off stage for his second close up should the voters break out the hook for Gingrich is a governor from Texas — the man who inherited Gingrich’s original campaign team.

We’ll get into it all in today’s Horserace.

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There is a difference between being dead and being on life support. Rick Perry is not dead. He has $15 million. He is the Governor of Texas. Donors cannot just ignore him.

But he is on life support after last night. It is entirely recoverable. He’s still got something like 2.72 million more debates to suffer through. But wow. How he responds and recovers will tell us more about the man and his potential than his debate performances.

The Jon Huntsman boomlet is over before it starts. His performance last night at the CNBC debate suggests he has no interest in reaching out to conservatives. Herman Cain did not act like and was not treated as the front runner.

Mitt Romney ran as the nominee, which he will probably be. But there is a potential new frontrunner for the anti-Romney faction and one that could give Romney a run for his money in the debating game, if not the actual money game. His name? “Mr. Speaker.”

We’ll get into it all in the Horserace.

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I had several talks with a number of highly regarded political analysts, pollsters, and others this past week. There was a common thread in all the conversations that surprised me. They said this was not a race between Romney vs. Perry or Romney vs. Cain. They said this is a race between Rick Perry and Herman Cain, with Newt Gingrich as a wild card.

Now, all this was before the Cain story really got going. That certainly changes things a bit. I think some more settling is going to happen in Mitt Romney’s favor and he may finally break through the 25% ceiling in national polls.

Herman Cain’s attack on Rick Perry is going to turn off people toward Perry. Cain’s campaign seems to have decided that if Cain goes down, he’s going to take out everybody not named Romney as well.

This is an ugly, sordid mess. I’ll get into the implications and who could benefit in today’s horserace.

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Is Rick Perry wasting our time? He came out with a great energy plan. He came out with an amazing economic plan. But I get the sense the campaign is in denial. Word is leaking that he may start skipping debates.

I don’t blame anyone for skipping some of the debates. There are far too many and they do little more than provoke fights without substantive conversations on the issues. I’m cool with any of the candidates skipping debates. But the Heritage/AEI debate on Foreign Policy must be non-negotiable for all the candidates. They need to be there and answer these questions. Foreign policy is the one area in the constitution the President largely has unrestricted power. We need to know what they would do.

I don’t think the Perry campaign really understands just how uninspired Rick Perry has left his own base of supporters, let alone the existing undecideds. To his credit though, he gave an entire speech this week and did not mention Texas. He’s learning. I don’t think he is wasting our time. But he needs to shore up his base of support quickly — probably more quickly than his campaign realizes.

In the meantime, the Romney camp is still targeting the Perry camp, largely because they don’t see the Cain camp as viable. The Cain camp continues building steam. Ron Paul is encountering his own version of Romney’s problem, and sneaking up from the rear is a guy most of us had written off.

We’ll get into all in the Horserace.

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It’s a turning point on the campaign trail. No one has knocked Herman Cain from his perch yet, but there is a growing consensus among both Democrat and Republican consultants that this is still a race between Mitt Romney and Rick Perry.

Why aren’t they taking Herman Cain seriously? Why is this a Romney v. Perry race? And what about Michele Bachman? Intentional or not, she seems ready to embrace the role of spoiler for Mitt Romney.

Conservatives are starting to get antsy. Consolidation of the field is not happening. And things are starting to get ugly. Will Newt be the next guy to try to consolidate the field? We’ll get into it all in this week’s Horserace.

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It was the one question in the Bloomberg-Washington Post debate that gave away the game. A source close to, but not in, the Bachmann campaign told me it was that question when he realized the game was over for Michele Bachmann. It was that one question that, according to a source close to the Perry camp and a source close to the Cain camp, raised a red flag for the Romney campaign and shows just how worried the Romney camp is about the race consolidating.

It was that one question that also shows why the Romney campaign is, behind the scenes, furiously pushing states to move up their caucuses and primaries.

That one question spoke louder to more people than all the other questions asked Tuesday night. And in that question lies Michele Bachmann’s ultimate defeat and Mitt Romney’s Achilles heel.

Yes, one question did all that. Find out what that question was in this week’s horserace.

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Earlier this week, I focused on what I personally don’t like about each of the candidates.

Today, with the race rapidly consolidating into a three man race, it is time to have a very frank conversation about each of the candidate’s objective problems. The calendar is collapsing in on them. The fundraising period before the start of the actual race is shrinking. There is limited time, limited talent, and limited treasure left on the road to the White House.

With Herman Cain battling it out for second place, trying to push to the lead, Perry has some thinking to do, Romney some planning, and Herman Cain is in for the biggest public examination of his life. The rest of the field is struggling to stay relevant, but coming up from behind Newt Gingrich has some momentum.

We’ll get into it all in this week’s horserace.

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Herman Cain has finally found that path to victory while Michele Bachmann appears to have stumbled right off it. This past week, the horserace really went through a shakeup. Even Jon Huntsman has a pulse, at least in one state.

Rick Perry fell over. Mitt Romney is holding steady, and the primary calendar is reshuffling throwing in some greater complications for candidates. And everyone and everything from this week is about to be overshadowed by one event happening Saturday.

Florida has decided to move up to January 31, 2012, which will force Iowa and New Hampshire to move up to the first of the month. This complicates things for most of the candidates because it will cut off one full month of campaign contributions before the elections start. Not only that, but it puts the heat of campaign giving season into the holiday season without a recovery month before elections.

Consequently, some people are going to be forced between buying Christmas presents and giving campaign dollars. The average voter will get shut out because of Florida, which helps Huntsman, Perry, and Romney, the three candidates who have never really had to worry about relying on low dollar donations.

Speaking of money, keep this in mind about this week’s horserace. Everyone and everything will be overshadowed by Saturday. The whole race could be shaken up between Saturday and two weeks after Saturday. What am I talking about?

Quarter 3 fundraising numbers for the FEC. The books on the quarter close out on September 30, 2011, at 11:59 p.m. The candidates who raised major coin will start leaking out their numbers to change the media narrative (look to Perry) and all numbers must be available for public inspect no later than October 15th.

This is going to be interesting. To help you out and your respective candidate, this week and from here on out the names of the candidates will link directly to their campaign websites so you can given them what you can and maybe help them change the story by this Saturday night.

Oh, stay tuned at the bottom of the horserace for a very special announcement.

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Rick Perry has locked in his front runner lead and in a novel twist of things, some Democrats are starting to panic. Why? Because the way Perry talks about immigration works to his advantage with hispanic immigrants and hispanic immigrants want someone other than Obama.

At the same time, Michele Bachmann seems to have hit the self-destruct button on her campaign. Even Ed Rollins is less than “all in” for her it seems.

Mitt Romney has a problem and it is bigger than Rick Perry’s problem — he’s boxing himself in on entitlement reform in a way that hurts him both with tea party activists and non-tea party activists.

Then there’s Cain, Gingrich, Huntsman, Paul, and Santorum. They continue to struggle. A brouhaha has hit the Herman Cain campaign. Huntsman has no sense of humor. Santorum continues to be this year’s Admiral Stockdale, and Gingrich’s posturing at Monday’s debate suggests a man reconciled to his fate.

We’ll get into it all in today’s horserace.

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Mitt Romney won the NBC-Politico debate on points and Newt Gingrich won on rhetoric. But Rick Perry held his own and, consequently, locks in front runner status for now. If, however, Perry can’t improve his debate performances, he may be a short-lived front runner.

Michele Bachmann is fading from view. Newt Gingrich reminds us he is a good debater. Even the folks on MSNBC say Jon Huntsman sounded like a man in a primary with Obama. Today, we take the candidates who appeared on stage at last night’s debate and make the horse race about them.

In all seriousness, after that MSNBC debate last night, I think I need to get all the candidates to come down to Atlanta and let RedState readers ask questions — questions from real conservatives. In any event, on with the horserace.

As we get into this, it is worth noting that at this point in their first terms, George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George H. W. Bush, and Ronald Reagan all polled higher than Barack Obama. Only Carter polled worse.

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It’s time to step back a bit and expand the horserace out. Why? There are five debates coming up in rapid succession. A lot of people think if someone unexpected has a knockout performance the person could be revitalized and get back in the game.

I actually think the more likely scenario is to take people out via debates, not put people back in. But Newt Gingrich did get a bump in some places after his last polling. It won’t help, but he got to call himself the come back kid. Michele Bachmann is trending down right now. Rick Perry looks to be the front runner, but I don’t think he is.

Let’s go through all the candidates today. All of them. No man out or listed as “former.” Where do I see them all? Here we go.

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Polls suggest it is “put up or shut up” time for Sarah Palin on whether she’ll run for President or, if not, assume the role of Kingmaker — and her endorsement will have power.

Rick Perry has vaulted into the lead nationally, but I still have qualms with really calling him the front runner.

Michele Bachmann is fading.

Jon Huntsman is beclowning himself.

And then there are the hangers on. We’ll get into it all in this week’s horserace.

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Tim Pawlenty is out of the race. Rick Perry is in the race. Not only is Perry in, he is surging to first place in the Rasmussen polling. But it is still Mitt Romney’s race to lose right now.

The race is beginning to find some momentum of its own. Rick Perry’s entry was not a Fred Thompson entry as some expected. He is dominating the conversation and forcing both Democrats and Republicans to respond to him. Whether he can keep it up and whether it blows back on him will be interesting to see moving forward.

Today, we have to spend time weeding out candidates, which will make some of you mad. Also, we’ll deal with Paul Ryan and Chris Christie.

Below the fold, the horse race gallops ahead.

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