Here was the question to S&P exec John Chambers, and his reply:
Q: “There’s been a figure of $4 trillion dollars circulating as an example of the scope of fiscal consolidation measures that could work to stabilize the U.S. debt-gdp ratios. Could you explain how that figure was arrived at since it was mentioned in S&P’s reports and where it figures in S&P analysis?”
A: “First of all, that figure comes initially from the Bowles-Simpson fiscal commission, and it was embraced by President Obama in his April 13 speech and Paul Ryan in his counter-budget proposal. And so you had policy makers converging around the amount. Now actually the $4 trillion, depending on whether it is front-loaded or back-loaded, is not going to do the trick in terms of stabilizing U.S. government debt-to GDP ratios. But it takes you pretty far along. And I think a grand bargain of that nature would signal, you know, the seriousness of policy makers to address the fiscal issues of the United States, to actually stabilize the debt-to-GDP. The IMF says it takes 7.5% of GDP consolidation. I think we have more than that.”
The U.S. annual budget deficit is now around 9% of GDP.
Chambers adds: “But $4 trillion would be a good down payment. We thought that..if policy makers could deliver the goods on that, then that would be a strong sign on our political scores and eventually on our projections on the fiscal side.”
S&P has already said it may slash the Triple-A rating if a debt ceiling deal is not accompanied by what it deems is a credible plan to cut the $14.3 trillion federal [debt] by $4 trillion. The plan has “to have bipartisan support,” Chambers said. “If you have a plan that is only backed by one side or the other, even if you got it through, you would be faced with the prospect of it being unwound.”
So, S&P’s Chambers is saying the ratings agency wants to see at least a $4 trillion deal, one that would come with bipartisan support, too, because the ratings agency fears without that support, Congress will upend any debt-cutting plan.
There was only ever one plan that did what S&P said was required — $4 trillion in cuts with bipartisan support. That’d be Cut, Cap, and Balance — a plan that cut $4 trillion and got bipartisan support in the House of Representatives.
As Democrats tonight, and some Republicans, lash out and blame the Tea Party for causing the United States to lose its credit rating, it is worth pointing out that only the Tea Party offered up a plan to avoid what happened.
This is precisely why the GOP should have held the line.
Victoria Coates
Daniel Horowitz
But...Erick!
jayp (Diary) Friday, August 5th at 11:01PM EST (link)The Republicans got the best deal possible…
Head honcho at www.rampartmedia.weebly.com
But not good enough
Old lady Monday, August 8th at 3:38PM EST (link)The only people at the negotiating table were republicans who were negotiating with their selves and still lost the debate. They are lousy at it and should never do it again
Good grief
carolina Friday, August 5th at 11:19PM EST (link)“S&P has already said it may slash the Triple-A rating if a debt ceiling deal is not accompanied by what it deems is a credible plan to cut the $14.3 trillion federal deficit by $4 trillion”
(copied from above)
These S&P guys don’t know the difference between the debt and the deficit? The DEBT of $14.3 trilllion was never going to be cut. It was going to grow at a slower pace by reducing the annual deficits (by $4 tril) over 10 years. No wonder the public stays confused.
Good grief
carolina Friday, August 5th at 11:19PM EST (link)“S&P has already said it may slash the Triple-A rating if a debt ceiling deal is not accompanied by what it deems is a credible plan to cut the $14.3 trillion federal deficit by $4 trillion”
(copied from above)
These S&P guys don’t know the difference between the debt and the deficit? The DEBT of $14.3 trilllion was never going to be cut. It was going to grow at a slower pace by reducing the annual deficits (by $4 tril) over 10 years. No wonder the public stays confused.
Bring back CCB!
jaykali (Diary) Friday, August 5th at 11:25PM EST (link)Ha, now you have some leverage..Dude what in the world is Obama going to do?
Wait..late breaking Jay Carney statement
jaykali (Diary) Friday, August 5th at 11:30PM EST (link)Japanese Tsunami…ummm Arab Spring!!?…uhhh European uncertainty!?!?! AHHHHHH
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs . . . uuuuhhhhhh . . .
rickbull Saturday, August 6th at 1:10PM EST (link)NT
WE ARE THE 53% (who actually pay taxes).
Oh okay, they've mashed the blame button instead
jaykali (Diary) Monday, August 8th at 7:23PM EST (link)I guess that should be predictable. The boogeymen Tea Partiers who’s main agenda is cutting spending is somehow responsible for a downgrade. That makes sense! Anywho this is one of those things the WH + MSM cannot spin, bc normal ppl understand the downgrade is a result of too much govt.
Don't you know? Nothing is ever a liberal's fault . . .
rickbull Tuesday, August 9th at 8:07PM EST (link)-nt-
WE ARE THE 53% (who actually pay taxes).
The Bush tax cuts and fuzzy math...
californiagold Friday, August 5th at 11:32PM EST (link)Ever since the debt deal was passed, I’ve been saying something doesn’t add up.
Republicans repeated the mantra that there were no tax increases included in the deal, while democrats stated the deal included the expiration of the Bush tax cuts as part of the math.
My question to anyone who cared to answer is why did Boehner automatically assume the Bush tax cuts would expire ? Obama has already extended the tax cuts once, and in 2013 there might be a new republican president anyway.
Using the Bush tax cuts as included revenue in the debt deal was fuzzy math at best. Apparently S&P agrees.
The Bush tax cuts and fuzzy math...
californiagold Friday, August 5th at 11:35PM EST (link)Ever since the debt deal was passed, I’ve been saying something doesn’t add up.
Republicans repeated the mantra that there were no tax increases included in the deal, while democrats stated the deal included the expiration of the Bush tax cuts as part of the math.
My question to anyone who cared to answer is why did Boehner automatically assume the Bush tax cuts would expire ? Obama has already extended the tax cuts once, and in 2013 there might be a new republican president anyway.
Using the expiration Bush tax cuts as included revenue in the debt deal was fuzzy math at best. Apparently S&P agrees.
It is dispicable to watch the Dems blame the Tea Party
runner12 (Diary) Friday, August 5th at 11:42PM EST (link)when it was they themselves that blocked the deal that would have prevented a downgrade (CCB).. It seems they are also blaming us for the drop in in the stock market.
Ridiculous.
The economy, the stock market tank, all of it is due to Obama and his neo-socialist policies. The only thing Obama and the Dems know how to do is spend other people’s money and blame the Republicans for everything under the sun, including the messes the Dems made themselves.
Tea party congressman flips Biden’s ‘terrorist’ label back on Democrats
izoneguy (Diary) Saturday, August 6th at 1:20PM EST (link)Tea party congressman flips Biden’s ‘terrorist’ label back on Democrats
The point cannot be made often enough: Modern liberalism, as embodied in the Obama presidency, is the defender of the status quo. And the status quo is a road to economic ruin. Political forces cannot redistribute the wealth that the economic system does not produce.
Erick...I scanned S&P's report, and they seem to indicate....
Mr_Ed (Diary) Friday, August 5th at 11:54PM EST (link)…that revenue increases (tax increases) need to be part of the future deficit reductions. It’s disappointing there appears to be no acknowledging the positive economic impact to extending the Bush tax cuts.
Mr. Ed
Straight from the Horse’s Mouth
Putting people back to work increases revenue
dajeeps (Diary) Saturday, August 6th at 1:53AM EST (link)More taxpayers = more revenue.
So one could take it as implying a demand for tax increases or improving economic conditions so there are more tax payers at the same rates. I don’t think S&P is interested in which way that goes, as long as more money is coming in to lessen default risk over time.
…”I would quarrel with both parties and with every individual of each, before I would subjugate my understanding, or prostitute my tongue or pen to either.”
–John Adams
That's why I consider the downgrade pure grandstanding for politics
Neil Stevens (Diary) Saturday, August 6th at 2:41AM EST (link)They’re not being objective. They have an agenda of pushing tax hikes.
That’s the only reason to do it *now*, after two years of Obama spending. That’s the only reason to do it *now*, after the debt ceiling hike was already achieved.
RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules
Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.
“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder
Good point Neil
bs61 Saturday, August 6th at 3:26AM EST (link)So forget my post below, now it makes sense!
That supposes playing both sides
buddha1556 Saturday, August 6th at 6:42AM EST (link)The quotes from the Treasury argue against that theory I think. The Treasury is offering lame quotes disputing the estimates that S&P used, claiming they are off by a ‘meager’ $2T
Now you may be right, but I tend to think the Treasury is more likely to be picking a political side than S&P. I think a better argument would be that S&P did it out of bitterness, as opposed to politics.
S&P took its lumps during the CDS/CDO fiasco, as well they should have, but I think they took it personally when Frank and company came after them while getting the new financial regulations passed.
I thought that I read...
bs61 Saturday, August 6th at 3:24AM EST (link)that the how we get there didn’t matter to them. And that they said they are not going to delve into politics, just numbers. But I can’t remember where!
2nd & long
drfredc Saturday, August 6th at 1:20AM EST (link)Come on folks — time for a reality check. The debt ceiling issue was barely more than a 1st down gain of a couple yards. CutCap and Balance was sent deep, but the RINO pass protection broke down, and the QB had to scramble around for a while to grab a short gain.
It’s a long game — it’s 2nd and long. Strap on your chin strap and get back into the huddle. There’s lots more work to do to get this ‘game’ under control. The goal is achievable, it’s more than laudable — it’s necessary for our future. How to get there hasn’t been written, other than it’s not going to happen in one play, nor is it likely to succeed with one simple repeated strategy pounded over and over. Most likely it will require a concerted and loud effort on multiple fronts to properly frame the debate to all the various factions that are willing to listen and think about what they are being told and to convince them to get involved…
Always, Fred C
"uncle"
smitch61 Saturday, August 6th at 1:52AM EST (link)I quit…. We might as well just go ahead and raise our own debt ceiling. I am going out tomorrow to purchase about 25K in home improvement supplies and perhaps a brand new set of living room furniture. I mean seriously…. this is some crazy stuff.
Fight for the grandkids!!!
I saw Cut Cap & Balance scored @ $2.7 trillion
Adjoran (Diary) Saturday, August 6th at 2:35AM EST (link)which would not have been sufficient. The Ryan budget would have been, though, with $5.5 trillion + in cuts over the ten year window.
Coming out of left field - but relevant
dajeeps (Diary) Saturday, August 6th at 2:54AM EST (link)I think part of the problem here is a focus on spending/debt levels as if they have meaning in and of themselves, and I beg to differ. Part of the reason for the downgrade is not just debt and where the numbers end up being crunched. It encompasses much more of the political economic picture given that we appear to have an unstable, incoherent, and economically destructive public policy apparatus. It is, to put it politely, central planning gone wild and has no purpose other than to serve the immediate wants of radicals and cannot provide the kind of financial stability we once had when abused. It is not deserving of a AAA rating because of all the economic implications that come with with gangster government.
None of the policy choices that accompanied the debt ceiling debate addressed that, or even put out the possibility that the power Obama and his thugs wield would be abridged. And it isn’t just Obama either. It is the possibility of another Obama; the potential for abuse of power that goes unchecked that is a big problem to safety and security of capital. Capital is what makes us grow and if we can’t get that because of this fundamental transformation into Zimbabwe, we are up a creek and won’t be able to pay any of the bills in very short order.
I think it’s sad that CCB has been and still is being quite oversold as the holy grail, as if we could just pass this and our problems disappear. It isn’t that, and not even close.
…”I would quarrel with both parties and with every individual of each, before I would subjugate my understanding, or prostitute my tongue or pen to either.”
–John Adams
I must have missed...
sccrenny (Diary) Monday, August 8th at 10:40PM EST (link)the solution to the problem in your post. Did you have a better set of handcuffs to the “economically destructive public policy apparatus” than a cap of percentage of GDP the government can spend and a Constitutional amendment to balance the budget? Sure the Cut part could have been higher, but which of the other solutions would you have preferred or what is your proposed solution?
When I look at Barack Obama I don’t see black. I don’t see white. I do, however see RED! It’s the same color I see when I look at Pelosi, Reid, ACORN, SEIU…
Precinct Delegate since 2010
Its a knife at the democrats throats and it should be used as such
Joliphant (Diary) Saturday, August 6th at 3:50AM EST (link)Erick has the right of it (No pun intended), The democrats have always been the party of deficit spending, let them try to lay this at others doors they will only make themselves look like weasels in the attempt.
For those of us that believe in a smaller government now is the time to press the message and its a simple message, “Live within your means”. Everyone gets it, When you toss in the extravagant programs that have been little more than theft, people not only get it, they get up on their hind legs about it
“Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it.”
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
Chaff from the wheat begins...
Hammer2008 (Diary) Saturday, August 6th at 5:40AM EST (link)RSG03 is going to be (let me date myself) “off the hook”. So in deference to Sen. Jim DeMint’s inspired Senate Conservative’s Fund (senateconservatives.com), is there a now and if so where is the House version?
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Too much noise! “Noise! You’ll have noise enough before long. The Regulars are coming out.” ~ Paul Revere (April 18th, 1775′s eve…)
CCB wasn't passed with bi-partisan support
dhoerster (Diary) Saturday, August 6th at 9:56AM EST (link)Unless you consider 5 Dems defecting bi-partisan support. By that logic, even if 1 Dem defected, it would have had bi-partisan support. From The Hill:
“The so-called “cut, cap and balance” measure passed on a party-line vote, 234-190, as nine Republicans — including presidential candidates Michele Bachmann (Minn.) and Ron Paul (Texas) — and five Democrats defected.”
CCB wouldn’t have passed in the Senate unless it was seriously ammended. Obama wouldn’t have signed CCB if the Senate decided to sign it. As much as I like CCB, it would not have passed as it was passed by the House.
Once we win the Senate in 2012 and the presidency, then we can pass CCB. If we had won the Senate in 2010, we may have had a better chance since we would have had so-called leadership; but we didn’t and we don’t.
And, since 9 Republicans opposed CCB...
dhoerster (Diary) Saturday, August 6th at 9:57AM EST (link)…you could say it had bi-partisan opposition (which included Bachmann).
Oh shut up!!
Aaron Gardner (Diary) Saturday, August 6th at 10:01AM EST (link)You will just fold at the slightest pressure whether it is today or 2012.
Any credibility you may have had was wasted on the “best we could get”.
conform and celebrate diversity….or else!!!
“We’d be much better off if We The People had desired small government enough to keep it.” acat
Follow @Aaron_RS
Oh how civil!
dhoerster (Diary) Saturday, August 6th at 10:26AM EST (link)Wow – apparently you have thin skin or something.
I tried to be civil for months, I got called a hobbit and a terrorist for it.
Aaron Gardner (Diary) Saturday, August 6th at 10:32AM EST (link)nt
conform and celebrate diversity….or else!!!
“We’d be much better off if We The People had desired small government enough to keep it.” acat
Follow @Aaron_RS
Well...
dhoerster (Diary) Saturday, August 6th at 10:42AM EST (link)…if the shoe fits….oh wait, hobbits don’t wear shoes.
I thought the hobbit bit was a ton of crap; the terrorist line from the Dems – now that’s civility in action.
I’m not sure when having an honest and open debate about issues made you a terrorist. I’m shocked that there wasn’t more outrage from the MSM about it. Ha!
My favorite line, though, is from Mike Doyle (D-Pittsburgh) where he said that the Tea Party was making it impossible to spend any money. Damn straight!
And regarding my credibility...
dhoerster (Diary) Saturday, August 6th at 10:27AM EST (link)…I doubt I had any since I don’t follow in lock-step here.
So you vote "do nothing"
Neil Stevens (Diary) Saturday, August 6th at 10:10AM EST (link)Noted.
Well, get out of the way then. Some of us want to try to do right by the nation instead of twiddling our thumbs.
RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules
Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.
“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder
I'm not voting 'do nothing'
dhoerster (Diary) Saturday, August 6th at 10:25AM EST (link)I’m trying to be realistic. I don’t think there was a realistic way for CCB as passed by the House to become law.
I’m all for doing the right thing, and you have no basis to imply that I’m sitting by twiddling my thumbs.
But until we have control of the House, Senate and White House, CCB won’t be a reality. That’s all I’m saying.
Honestly, what would happen if CCB was the only item passed by the House? There would either have been a lot of thumb twiddling while both sides stared each down, or the Senate would have amended it and forced the House to vote on it again – daring them to vote against it. The media is so anti-Tea Party, that no matter what they did, they would have gotten the blame for it.
Why Wait?
bigredone Saturday, August 6th at 11:27AM EST (link)If we wait for all that to happen, what’s the use, and what will we wait to happen next to actually do something?
We can get the job done now. Obama will agree to anything right now to save his chances at re-election. Reid has zero credibility after the FAA fold. Now is the time to push and push hard to get we need.
Balanced Budget Amendment passed to the States or nothing moves.
Cuts of 10% across the board right now, or nothing moves.
Caps on spending at 20% of GDP right now, or nothing moves.
Now is the time to be bold.
So please leave until 2012. You're just taking up valuable air. -nt-
Bill S (Diary) Saturday, August 6th at 11:44AM EST (link).
“It’s such a fine line between stupid, and clever.” – David St. Hubbins
so much
geah Monday, August 8th at 8:51AM EST (link)for polite speech I thought we were all welcome, I won’t bother anymore because I agree with bigredone, goodby
Yes, there WAS a way.
rcastonjr Monday, August 8th at 11:24AM EST (link)Once CCB was passed by the House, Boehner should have then coupled it to a rise in the debt ceiling and sent it to the Senate with the statement that THIS is our FINAL OFFER. Then calmly walked away. Period. He should have stayed away and waited. If the dems and Obama raised cain, so be it. As Eric said, hold the line on CCB. Either it passes the Senate and the President signs it or there would be no raising the debt ceiling. Then the blame could be laid squarely at the dems and the President’s feet if the deadline wasn’t met.
1 vote = Bi-partisan Support...
dilligas Saturday, August 6th at 11:55AM EST (link)That 1 vote bar was set by the democrats… when they paraded out that bi-partisan support passed Obamacare….
when they paraded out that bi-partisan support passed Obamacare….
gunslingr45 Monday, August 8th at 9:49AM EST (link)LOL
If the Dems...
sccrenny (Diary) Monday, August 8th at 10:49PM EST (link)can count the “ME” sisters as bipartisan support why can’t we count 5 Democrats as such? The fact that 80% of the government opposes an idea is no reason not to push the idea. Ideas matter.
“It does not require a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority keen to set brush fires in people’s minds.”- Samuel Adams
As I searched that quote I found another from Sam Adams that should be trotted out by Republicans at every apt opportunity- “How strangely will the Tools of a Tyrant pervert the plain Meaning of Words!”
I particularly like the “tools” part.
When I look at Barack Obama I don’t see black. I don’t see white. I do, however see RED! It’s the same color I see when I look at Pelosi, Reid, ACORN, SEIU…
Precinct Delegate since 2010
Stop Digging a Bigger Hole!
travis690 (Diary) Monday, August 8th at 10:36AM EST (link)The first thing you need to do is see the problem.
Just because you WANT to raise income, doesn’t mean it will happen. Every revenue projection that anyone in Washington comes up with is always too optimistic. You cannot automatically cause revenue increases to happen. But you can cause spending to be reduced. THIS is where the discussion needs to start.
After you members of the DC political class are able to reduce spending (actual dollars, not imaginary baseline dollars), then you start selling assets…like the buildings occupied by the useless alphabet-soup agencies that you just eliminated. Then you will find that you are able to balance your books for the year!