Comments on: What to Watch For on Election Night in NY-23

By: Swamp_Yankee

Swamp_Yankee — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 23:28:19 +0000

50-50 sucks as far as I’m concerned. Tak Minn corruption – multiply it by twenty – you got NJ. Union goons are probably shaking people down right now. I wanted a bigger margin.

Does anyone know if they count city votes first? Maybe this is a Newark/Cosmo heavy number.

By: Ausonius

Ausonius — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 23:27:11 +0000

Corzine is up to 52%: do the traders think the fix is in?

I am not sure when they cut off the trading, but I think it is around 7:30.

By: Ausonius

Ausonius — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 22:38:10 +0000

As I predicted, but that there is no great surge for Corzine is good news…so far!

It could simply mean that with late voting there is no sense yet among the traders of which way the election is heading.

By: jimc1969

jimc1969 — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 21:37:08 +0000

To answer SWAMIs question, the Club for growth has a twitter page to keep us updated on NY-23
Great organization, I encourage all to join…………….

By: Ausonius

Ausonius — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 21:28:05 +0000

Corzine is up 8 points in 2 hours: this no doubt reflects more people voting after getting off work. (4:30 P.M. EST)

And could be the traders sensing that, as I wrote earlier, the fix will be working.

By: Next93

Next93 — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 20:16:52 +0000

There are four colleges in St. Lawrence, including one ivy-leage wannabe liberal-arts college in Canton and a huge SUNY teachers college in Potsdam. Add in the large union contingent at the Alcoa plant in Messina, and if I recall correctly, there’s also a Mohawk reservation in the county.

Hard to see that going ‘R’.

By the way, does anyone know if Hoffman is related to the Hoffman meat company?

By: Rod_Patrick

Rod_Patrick — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 19:24:27 +0000

By: Rod_Patrick

Rod_Patrick — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 19:23:29 +0000

jimgeraghty: FWIW, as of noon, trusted source says total turnout in GOP & swing districts in NJ is significantly outpacing turnout in Democrat districts.
24 minutes ago

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/twitter/

By: Ausonius

Ausonius — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 19:19:36 +0000

As of 2:20 P.M.

The volatility of the New Jersey race is obvious.

Hoffman’s steady rise is a good sign.

By: mikefisk

mikefisk — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 18:58:20 +0000

Like seeing this sort of stuff… fantastic summary of the nuts and bolts of the district.

Fingers crossed on the returns tonight.

By: Ausonius

Ausonius — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 18:18:33 +0000

If in the late afternoon Corzine starts to plummet, then you will really know that Christie has a shot.

If, however, it seems to the market that the fix is in, you will see that reflected as well!

Insiders can manipulate the market temporarily of course, but in the end they all want to win, and the idea that somebody might bet a large amount on a sure loser just to give the appearance for a few hours of success is highly unlikely, and irrational.

By: ColdWarrior

ColdWarrior — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 18:08:58 +0000

Sure hope Christie pulls it out.

We should all pray. More.

Thank you.
ColdWarrior
www.theprecinctproject.wordpress.com

By: swami7774

swami7774 — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 17:59:53 +0000

Anyone got one? Or do we need to follow each town’s website?
Also, Intrade has Corzine back up to 50, fwiw.

By: Ausonius

Ausonius — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 17:56:01 +0000

The market is only 8 years old but has become famous for accuracy:

See:

http://www.pollingreport.com/lvw_bet.htm

An excerpt:

“The betting markets saw their best triumph of 2004 in Florida. Even though a number of polls put Kerry ahead in that state, or said the race was too close to call, the betting markets consistently showed Bush would win Florida comfortably.

Indeed, if the Democrats had paid as much attention to the markets as the polls, I am convinced that the election result would have been different. They could have downsized their effort in Florida and focused their efforts more on other swing states where betting sites showed the race was much closer.

Intrade followed up in 2006 when the market favorite won each and every Senate seat up for election. Moreover, in large part the stronger the favorite, the bigger was the margin of victory.”

By: ColdWarrior

ColdWarrior — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 17:52:26 +0000

Thank you.
ColdWarrior
www.theprecinctproject.wordpress.com

By: Ausonius

Ausonius — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 17:47:20 +0000

See:

http://www.intrade.com/

Corzine is at 47% as of 12:30 P.M. EST.

Virginia is a cinch to send Deeds off to bagging groceries at the Piggly Wiggly.

By: peg_c

peg_c — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 17:41:17 +0000

is nothing short of brilliant.

By: peg_c

peg_c — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 17:40:12 +0000

He named you as one of the main factors in Hoffman’s candidacy and success so far.

Obama thought the fix was in with Owens, knowing Scuzzyfuzzy would lose. Then Hoffman became the fly in Obama’s ointment, and we all came out in huge support of Hoffman. Rush says conservatives all across the country are starting to rise up against RINO incumbants and it’s all due to Hoffman and us. This could end up being one of the most damaging things Obama’s done yet to his party. (Oh, there are soooo many.)

Huzzah!

By: jen2001

jen2001 — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 17:38:25 +0000

for NY-23. Great job!