Talking to Andy Roth at Club For Growth, I’ve gotten a few tips on things to look out for in New York tonight. By the way, if you are looking for a place to send some money, consider that the Club got in early for Doug Hoffman and did great work. We’re going to need their coffers replenished for 2010. Go join now and give.
The eastern part of the district is where Owens is strongest. He was leading there before Dede got out of the race, and her exit should not change much there. Do not be worried if Owens comes out ahead in Clinton, Essex, and Franklin Counties.
The western part of the district is the most conservative. This should be strong territory for Hoffman. The counties are Madison, Oneida, and Oswego. Oswego is the largest county in the district.
The northern part of the district is Dede’s home area, where she was strongest. She will likely still retain more votes here than anywhere else. Hoffman should win here, but if we see Owens doing well in this area, we will know that Dede’s supporters are moving in the wrong direction. St. Lawrence and Jefferson Counties are the big ones here, and there is also Lewis.
Finally, there are two small counties, Hamilton and Fulton, which are in the Albany media market. Because of superior resource allocation here by the Dems, we suspect that Owens wins here.
Moe Lane
Steve Maley
KnightsofMalta
Dan Spencer
Dan McLaughlin
Rush just gave kudos to Erick and Redstate...
jen2001 Tuesday, November 3rd at 12:38PM EST (link)for NY-23. Great job!
Erick kudos on the credit to you by Rush just now
peg_c (Diary) Tuesday, November 3rd at 12:40PM EST (link)He named you as one of the main factors in Hoffman’s candidacy and success so far.
Obama thought the fix was in with Owens, knowing Scuzzyfuzzy would lose. Then Hoffman became the fly in Obama’s ointment, and we all came out in huge support of Hoffman. Rush says conservatives all across the country are starting to rise up against RINO incumbants and it’s all due to Hoffman and us. This could end up being one of the most damaging things Obama’s done yet to his party. (Oh, there are soooo many.)
Huzzah!
Government cannot be the solution when government is the problem.
Rush's analysis today of the 3 races
peg_c (Diary) Tuesday, November 3rd at 12:41PM EST (link)is nothing short of brilliant.
Government cannot be the solution when government is the problem.
InTrade Has Hoffman Up To 80% Odds: Corzine Dropping
Ausonius (Diary) Tuesday, November 3rd at 12:47PM EST (link)See:
http://www.intrade.com/
Corzine is at 47% as of 12:30 P.M. EST.
Virginia is a cinch to send Deeds off to bagging groceries at the Piggly Wiggly.
Ausonius: 310-395 A.D. Teacher, Poet, Consul, General, Farmer.
Personal Tutor to the future St. Paulinus of Nola and to young Gratian, heir to the throne during the turbulent final years of the Western Roman Empire. When his former student Gratian was assassinated, Ausonius threw up his hands and retired to his farm in Gaul. Rome was captured by barbarians 14 years after his death.
Cato@rock.com
Link for NY-23 results?
swami7774 (Diary) Tuesday, November 3rd at 12:59PM EST (link)Anyone got one? Or do we need to follow each town’s website?
Also, Intrade has Corzine back up to 50, fwiw.
Today, there is a name for the political doctrine that rejoices in scarcity of everything except government. The name is environmentalism.
Ausonius: Now Corzine is at 45; what's the track record of these predictions?
ColdWarrior (Diary) Tuesday, November 3rd at 12:52PM EST (link)Thank you.
ColdWarrior
www.theprecinctproject.wordpress.com
In 2012, will YOU become a “voting member” of the Republican Party in your precinct?
Where it all started. Twitter @kaltkrieger
Unified Patriots.
Learn how to GOTV at The Concord Project and at Procinct and
InTrade Is Famous For Being Accurate
Ausonius (Diary) Tuesday, November 3rd at 12:56PM EST (link)The market is only 8 years old but has become famous for accuracy:
See:
http://www.pollingreport.com/lvw_bet.htm
An excerpt:
“The betting markets saw their best triumph of 2004 in Florida. Even though a number of polls put Kerry ahead in that state, or said the race was too close to call, the betting markets consistently showed Bush would win Florida comfortably.
Indeed, if the Democrats had paid as much attention to the markets as the polls, I am convinced that the election result would have been different. They could have downsized their effort in Florida and focused their efforts more on other swing states where betting sites showed the race was much closer.
Intrade followed up in 2006 when the market favorite won each and every Senate seat up for election. Moreover, in large part the stronger the favorite, the bigger was the margin of victory.”
Ausonius: 310-395 A.D. Teacher, Poet, Consul, General, Farmer.
Personal Tutor to the future St. Paulinus of Nola and to young Gratian, heir to the throne during the turbulent final years of the Western Roman Empire. When his former student Gratian was assassinated, Ausonius threw up his hands and retired to his farm in Gaul. Rome was captured by barbarians 14 years after his death.
Cato@rock.com
Thanks! Drats, Corzine back to 50 per cent.
ColdWarrior (Diary) Tuesday, November 3rd at 1:08PM EST (link)Sure hope Christie pulls it out.
We should all pray. More.
Thank you.
ColdWarrior
www.theprecinctproject.wordpress.com
In 2012, will YOU become a “voting member” of the Republican Party in your precinct?
Where it all started. Twitter @kaltkrieger
Unified Patriots.
Learn how to GOTV at The Concord Project and at Procinct and
Expect Great Volatility All Day In Prediction Markets
Ausonius (Diary) Tuesday, November 3rd at 1:18PM EST (link)If in the late afternoon Corzine starts to plummet, then you will really know that Christie has a shot.
If, however, it seems to the market that the fix is in, you will see that reflected as well!
Insiders can manipulate the market temporarily of course, but in the end they all want to win, and the idea that somebody might bet a large amount on a sure loser just to give the appearance for a few hours of success is highly unlikely, and irrational.
Ausonius: 310-395 A.D. Teacher, Poet, Consul, General, Farmer.
Personal Tutor to the future St. Paulinus of Nola and to young Gratian, heir to the throne during the turbulent final years of the Western Roman Empire. When his former student Gratian was assassinated, Ausonius threw up his hands and retired to his farm in Gaul. Rome was captured by barbarians 14 years after his death.
Cato@rock.com
Late Afternoon Volatility in NJ Gov Race: InTrade
Ausonius (Diary) Tuesday, November 3rd at 4:28PM EST (link)Corzine is up 8 points in 2 hours: this no doubt reflects more people voting after getting off work. (4:30 P.M. EST)
And could be the traders sensing that, as I wrote earlier, the fix will be working.
Ausonius: 310-395 A.D. Teacher, Poet, Consul, General, Farmer.
Personal Tutor to the future St. Paulinus of Nola and to young Gratian, heir to the throne during the turbulent final years of the Western Roman Empire. When his former student Gratian was assassinated, Ausonius threw up his hands and retired to his farm in Gaul. Rome was captured by barbarians 14 years after his death.
Cato@rock.com
5:35 P.M. - Back To 50-50 In N.J. Governor's Race
Ausonius (Diary) Tuesday, November 3rd at 5:38PM EST (link)As I predicted, but that there is no great surge for Corzine is good news…so far!
It could simply mean that with late voting there is no sense yet among the traders of which way the election is heading.
Ausonius: 310-395 A.D. Teacher, Poet, Consul, General, Farmer.
Personal Tutor to the future St. Paulinus of Nola and to young Gratian, heir to the throne during the turbulent final years of the Western Roman Empire. When his former student Gratian was assassinated, Ausonius threw up his hands and retired to his farm in Gaul. Rome was captured by barbarians 14 years after his death.
Cato@rock.com
6:20 P.M. Christie Crashing 12 Points on InTrade
Ausonius (Diary) Tuesday, November 3rd at 6:27PM EST (link)Corzine is up to 52%: do the traders think the fix is in?
I am not sure when they cut off the trading, but I think it is around 7:30.
Ausonius: 310-395 A.D. Teacher, Poet, Consul, General, Farmer.
Personal Tutor to the future St. Paulinus of Nola and to young Gratian, heir to the throne during the turbulent final years of the Western Roman Empire. When his former student Gratian was assassinated, Ausonius threw up his hands and retired to his farm in Gaul. Rome was captured by barbarians 14 years after his death.
Cato@rock.com
Is That Good???
Swamp_Yankee (Diary) Tuesday, November 3rd at 6:28PM EST (link)50-50 sucks as far as I’m concerned. Tak Minn corruption – multiply it by twenty – you got NJ. Union goons are probably shaking people down right now. I wanted a bigger margin.
Does anyone know if they count city votes first? Maybe this is a Newark/Cosmo heavy number.
InTrade: Hoffman Holding at 85% Corzine Down to 45%
Ausonius (Diary) Tuesday, November 3rd at 2:19PM EST (link)As of 2:20 P.M.
The volatility of the New Jersey race is obvious.
Hoffman’s steady rise is a good sign.
Ausonius: 310-395 A.D. Teacher, Poet, Consul, General, Farmer.
Personal Tutor to the future St. Paulinus of Nola and to young Gratian, heir to the throne during the turbulent final years of the Western Roman Empire. When his former student Gratian was assassinated, Ausonius threw up his hands and retired to his farm in Gaul. Rome was captured by barbarians 14 years after his death.
Cato@rock.com
It's a good sign. Yesterday NJ race was 50/50 at Intrade. nt
Rod_Patrick (Diary) Tuesday, November 3rd at 2:24PM EST (link)Great analysis, Erick
mikefisk (Diary) Tuesday, November 3rd at 1:58PM EST (link)Like seeing this sort of stuff… fantastic summary of the nuts and bolts of the district.
Fingers crossed on the returns tonight.
“Once within the maw of Leviathan, degree of digestion is irrelevant.” – Michael Fisk
9.25, -4.77
Geraghty twitted that R turnouts in NJ is outpacing Ds. I'm hopeful for Christie. God please! nt
Rod_Patrick (Diary) Tuesday, November 3rd at 2:23PM EST (link)jimgeraghty: FWIW, as of noon, trusted source says total turnout in GOP & swing districts in NJ is significantly outpacing turnout in Democrat districts.
24 minutes ago
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/twitter/
St. Lawrence County for Hoffman?
Next93 (Diary) Tuesday, November 3rd at 3:16PM EST (link)There are four colleges in St. Lawrence, including one ivy-leage wannabe liberal-arts college in Canton and a huge SUNY teachers college in Potsdam. Add in the large union contingent at the Alcoa plant in Messina, and if I recall correctly, there’s also a Mohawk reservation in the county.
Hard to see that going ‘R’.
By the way, does anyone know if Hoffman is related to the Hoffman meat company?
Obama was The One in 2008.
He’ll be a BIGGER one in 2012.
NY-23 results
jimc1969 Tuesday, November 3rd at 4:37PM EST (link)To answer SWAMIs question, the Club for growth has a twitter page to keep us updated on NY-23
Great organization, I encourage all to join…………….