I suspect that if Hoffman and Scozzafava split almost equally that Owens will win, and that may well be what the Dems are verifying with their polls – that they can win an even split.

What remains to be seen is whether the voters will shift in the next week as a) Hoffman gains more attention (positive and negative) and prehaps key endorsements; 2) whether Hoggman’s new contributions are effectively used; and 3) whether the Republican establishment goes scorched earth.

But conservatives are committed to seeing this through.

As far as your analogies, incumbancy does carry advantages and it’s not always even to regain seats, but this is an unusual case: a) no primary, b) special election – which affects voter demographics, c) one year term, which means less entrenchment, and d) the variables of redistricting which may significantly change this district in 2010( if it doesn’t get eliminated), which means that there will be a whole new ballgame in that election anyway.

So the downside risk is less than usual, whereas the upside benefit is greater than usual.

I don’t have an interest in playing the troll/moby detective game with you. This post at least seems to raise some valid points that are at least worth considering.

Going forward, what will make things clearer is 1) how responsive your are to critique, and 2) whether you continue to have a pattern of undercutting or whether you are aiding the goal of RedState – to promote conservative and Republican values and candidates.

Blind cheerleading doesn’t benefit us, but concern trolling is worse because it represents an attempt to demoralize. We’ll see where you fall.

As regards Hooah_ Mac’s call of troll on you, well we’re thinking alike, you’re pulling off moby so far.

They might be terrified of NJ.

This isn’t a referendum for Obama, this is a referendum for principles, this IS when conservatives say enough is enough. For too long, conservatives have accepted ANY candidate that had an R behind their names without regard to the principles of conservatism and bravo to Mr. Hoffman for stepping up to the plate to challenge that worn out theory.

Do I want a third party? No. But I want faux Republicans even less – they provide no service to us and make the jobs of real conservatives that much harder.

Please stop using the guilt trip of we’re going to lose unless we get behind (insert favorite RINO’s name here) and get them elected. To what end?

It is time to stand for principle instead of one letter of the alphabet and if the party leadership can’t figure that out, then it is truly time to change that leadership.

I salute Mr. Hoffman, Erick and the RS crew, the conservative voices in the media, the bloggers, the TEA party activists and those people like Cold Warrior who are galvanized to not only stand on their beliefs but go down swinging if necessary. They are the ones that will help bring us back.

I have no clue who is going to win but certainly the momentum is in Hoffman’s favor regardless of what your democrat sources say. They are speculating until all the votes are counted.

And one last thing before I jump off my soapbox, everyone get out and vote on Tuesday. Not only that, get your neighbors out, work the polls, make calls to get people out and do everything you can to get conservatives to the voting booth.

I am a New Yorker there is no NY Republican Party; we have zero statewide office holders are down to 2 Republican Congressman are in the minority in state legislature and there are zero faces on the horizon. Heck, you’d think someone with a lot money would make run but we can’t even get that. There is no one in the state that can inspire Republicans anymore minus Rudy and he is hated now more then ever by the left in this state. Pataki has vanished since his term ended and he has not done anything for party either.

Worse, I doubt Rudy makes run for Governor and even if he does he is running from behind in this state now. Rudy worked hard for the other special election and it didn’t pay off for us

Pataki or Guiliani would have to lean even more to left to win NY at this time. Since 2000, NY has lost over 1.5 million people but only 120,000 in NYC so it shows just how much the demographics have hampered Republicans in this state.

Sounds to me like the NY GOP has been screwing things up for the rest of us for a long time.

Tom Downey was elected because of Watergate and the GOP dividing over a true conservative and and a true Republican. Downey held his seat for 9 terms (18 years).

Louise Slaughter was elected to the House 24 years ago to represent Rochester when the GOP got into an internal dustup. Same words were spoken then she would be defeated next election. Now this transplant from Kentucky, who was ridiculed for her thick “hillbilly” twang accent, wins with over 60% of the vote.

If Owens wins this seat because we are fighting between each other it will give the Democrats a great PR victory. The White House and the DCCC are already saying this election is the actual referendum on the Obama administration.

My sources from the Democrat party say that Owens is sitting on a slight but comfortable lead. They also have identified their votes and have as good a ground game in place as they have ever put together. They would not say such things unless they were very confident that they are correct.

These are all facts if you want Hoffman to win you had better have identified your vote and have a very intense get out the vote mechanism. This will be about turnout and the Democrats are ready are we?