Hoffman Now First


Yesterday in the Politico, the NRCC said Doug Hoffman had “no path to victory” in New York’s 23rd Congressional District.

Well, guess what. According to a new poll commissioned by the Club for Growth Doug Hoffman is in first place.

Here’s the thing: it is only 300 people surveyed with a 5% margin of error. What the poll tells us for certain and very reliably is that this is a two man race between Owens, the Democrat, and Hoffman, the Conservative. Dede Scozzafava is in third place with no base of support to get her up.

Now imagine the possibilities for Hoffman if the GOP ditched Scozzafava and got behind Hoffman. The goal, after all, is to get someone who will be part of the Republican caucus in the House of Representatives. Hoffman would.


Category: , , ,

RSS feed

40 Comments Leave a comment

Yes Indeed

M.R. Newman (Diary) Monday, October 26th at 2:14PM EST (link)

I was waiting for this to get front page attention. This is important to note that yes, the race is now between two people and Dede Scozzafava is not one of them.

M.R. Newman
Conservative Engineer

 

It is upsetting

Sundayjack (Diary) Monday, October 26th at 2:22PM EST (link)

. . . that the NRCC doubles-down on stupid so boldly. This is great news, and hopefully an overdue lesson heading into 2010.

“Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies.”

There's only one proper response to the NRCC...

mikedaire Monday, October 26th at 2:28PM EST (link)

Send money directly to Hoffman. I was going to write him a check for $10… but with the NRCC’s interference, I’ll send $25 instead.

I just donated some

earlgrey (Diary) Monday, October 26th at 2:37PM EST (link)

This is fun, and is making us feel empowered a bit. We are making a point. Will be very important to maintain and grow momentum from here. I have never been active before, and now I will never quit being active on these issues. It is too important.

 
 
 

Is Gov. Palin coming in to help campaign?

jen2001 Monday, October 26th at 2:26PM EST (link)

Was wondering if she might make a surprise visit to seal the deal. It would be yummy to watch.

That would really be "going rogue."

ColdWarrior (Diary) Monday, October 26th at 2:38PM EST (link)

I hope she does it.

Thank you.

ColdWarrior
www.theprecinctproject.wordpress.com

In 2012, will YOU become a “voting member” of the Republican Party in your precinct?

Where it all started. Twitter @kaltkrieger
Learn how to GOTV at The Concord Project and at Procinct and Unified Patriots.

I believe everyone who endorsed Doug Hoffman should

DavidS1787 (Diary) Monday, October 26th at 7:12PM EST (link)

show up and campaign for him……. He needs their help…….

 
 
 

Good all around...

provis2 Monday, October 26th at 2:27PM EST (link)

I am sort of new here, but everyone is here is very enthusiastic—finally!

provis

i agree

yokono Monday, October 26th at 5:43PM EST (link)

iam new 2 n iam finally excited bout a election!!!!!!!1

 
 

It would be nice if they ditched Scozzafava,

Steph C (Diary) Monday, October 26th at 2:30PM EST (link)

but don’t expect it to happen. Newt was on Fox early yesterday morning and basically slammed everybody out of state for interfering and endorsing Hoffman. And he argued S’s conservative bonafides with words like ‘relatively’ and what the people of NY want and so on and on and on. I don’t remember him using the word ‘electability’ but it was essentially what he was saying in the same manner that McCain was the only one who could win against the Democrat in the presidential election.

I don’t know what people Newt claims want Scozzafava but that polls indicates otherwise, doesn’t it? Even if it is only 300 people.

“[I]f the public are bound to yield obedience to laws to which they cannot give their approbation, they are slaves to those who make such laws and enforce them.” –Candidus in the Boston Gazette, 1772
Hillbilly Politics

Newt...

libertymt Monday, October 26th at 3:33PM EST (link)

Probably has a firmer grasp on the dynamics of third party candidacies than some here do.

You’ve got nearly a quarter of the people in this poll undecided, with just a week to go. Undecideds, especially a week out, are generally low information voters, people who aren’t paying attention, who mostly go on gut feel and party ID and name recognition. They never go with 3rd party candidates. And people never vote 3rd party at the rates they say they will when polled.

Never?

Steph C (Diary) Monday, October 26th at 3:58PM EST (link)

There are at least 2 in the Senate. They caucus with the Democrats to be sure, but they don’t call themselves Democrats.

Never say never. Perhaps it’s unlikely but sometimes the odds are just plain wrong, except when you’re playing the lottery. Methinks this is one of those times.

“[I]f the public are bound to yield obedience to laws to which they cannot give their approbation, they are slaves to those who make such laws and enforce them.” –Candidus in the Boston Gazette, 1772
Hillbilly Politics

Almost Never.

libertymt Monday, October 26th at 4:13PM EST (link)

Sanders is a open and avowed socialist, representing a similarly far left leaning area. He’s never even had a decent candidate run against him from the right OR left.

And Lieberman was a democrat, served as one for like, 20 years before being tossed out in a primary by a far left candidate and the party base. He then ran and won as an independent. He got support because of his name recognition and the fact that he was seen as a moderate.

We’ll know soon enough though I guess. But if I had to bet though, I’d bet Hoffman ends up lower than he is in this poll once people step into the booth, and both the R and D candidates get virtually all of the undecided voters and a share of Hoffman’s.

It’s (almost) always what happens with third party candidates.

I would give him better odds.

Steph C (Diary) Monday, October 26th at 4:19PM EST (link)

Traditionally, you’d be right on the money. However, there’s a sea change going on in the country that is unprecedented, like the Tea Party protests. I believe people have decided that the only way to send a message to the same old, same old beltway is to vote where they’re least expected to vote.

“[I]f the public are bound to yield obedience to laws to which they cannot give their approbation, they are slaves to those who make such laws and enforce them.” –Candidus in the Boston Gazette, 1772
Hillbilly Politics

I Think...

libertymt Monday, October 26th at 4:44PM EST (link)

This is one of the first real tests of your ‘sea change’ theory. The sea change is going to need to be pretty overwhelming to overcome the advantages the two parties have in our system. And personally, I’m with Newt on this one- it’s not going to be overwhelming enough to usher in a true conservative 3rd party, or even a substantial number of 3rd party elected officials.

Like I said though, we’ll know soon enough. Right now, all eyes are on this election.

We'll know in a little over a week.

Steph C (Diary) Monday, October 26th at 4:51PM EST (link)

I don’t believe it will have to be overwhelming in the sense you mean. It has already been overwhelming but the establishment isn’t listening.

“[I]f the public are bound to yield obedience to laws to which they cannot give their approbation, they are slaves to those who make such laws and enforce them.” –Candidus in the Boston Gazette, 1772
Hillbilly Politics

I mean Overwhelming...

libertymt Monday, October 26th at 5:19PM EST (link)

In terms of it’s magnitude. For a conservative 3rd party candidacy or movement to succeed, it has to not only overwhelm the Republican candidate, but also pull some of the Democrats into it. Otherwise you’re just splitting the vote and putting a democrat in power like Newt’s warning against.

The thing is, as Ace stated below,

Steph C (Diary) Monday, October 26th at 5:57PM EST (link)

is this is a special circumstance and Hoffman would most likely be running as an R if it weren’t for the likes of people like Scozzafava and the establishment deciding she is the party standard. He has said so in his own words.

That is the sea change and people are rejecting the ‘party line’ of supporting the R no matter what.

However, he is officially third party because he’s running as a C for conservative party instead.

Conservatism is on the march. When it’s represented fairly it always wins.

“[I]f the public are bound to yield obedience to laws to which they cannot give their approbation, they are slaves to those who make such laws and enforce them.” –Candidus in the Boston Gazette, 1772
Hillbilly Politics

Special Circumstances Or Not..

libertymt Monday, October 26th at 6:40PM EST (link)

My point still stands. For this to succeed in these circumstance, he’s going to need to pull in more than just the conservatives. He needs to need to pull in the moderate Republicans (it’s NY, there are a lot) and/or Democrats. Otherwise he’s just splitting this vote and quite likely putting a Democrat into office.

Even if he doesn’t get elected how many out there are going to see the fundraising he pulled off here, and try to emulate it next fall all over the country? That’s what Newt’s worried about, and I share that same worry.

Why?

Steph C (Diary) Monday, October 26th at 8:06PM EST (link)

Hoffman should have been the Republican candidate. He was rejected for an ACORN endorsed candidate because of so-called electability.

People have already stopped giving to the national party orgs and are opting for individual candidates. If they’re worried about that, perhaps some soul searching is in order.

I know that poll is a small sample size but if it’s anywhere close to accurate, he’s not splitting the vote. Scozzafava is, since she’s the one trailing.

Conventional wisdom says you’re right because that is typical of what happens because 3rd parties are a dime a dozen, none of which seem to have much of a message as a party. However, we are living in unconventional times.

What has come into play with NY23 is what the sea change is all about. The people are refusing to settle for milquetoast when they can have a taste of red meat.

“[I]f the public are bound to yield obedience to laws to which they cannot give their approbation, they are slaves to those who make such laws and enforce them.” –Candidus in the Boston Gazette, 1772
Hillbilly Politics

No more money to the RNC, NRCC or NRSC from us

Bill Wednesday, October 28th at 11:06PM EST (link)

and we have told them to take us off the mailing lists, call lists and e-mail lists. However, they keep wasting their time and money sending us mail that just gets shredded and dumped; e-mails get deleted and don’t answer the calls if it shows up on caller id. A number not available is a clue to not answer the call!
Individuals who I have found information on and heard speak would only get my money and time, if I have it to give. We have to start somewhere and that somewhere is to only support candidates who can convince us they share our conservative values.

Thank God! November 3, 2010. U.S. House, GOP 290, DEM 145; U.S. Senate, GOP 70, DEM 28, IND 2. Keep on praying!

 
 

It's a "teachable moment"...

sccrenny (Diary) Wednesday, October 28th at 10:59PM EST (link)

for the NRC, NRCC, etc. A perfect opportunity since there would be virtually no difference between the Republican and the Democratic representation. The whole point is to “worry” Newt and the national organization. The only ones who will find any success at emulating the fundraising here are those who are more “Republican” than whoever the establishment hangs an “R” behind.

As to the third party aspect, the Conservative party and the Libertarian party and the Consitution party could find room under a properly run Republican party.

When I look at Barack Obama I don’t see black. I don’t see white. I do, however see RED! It’s the same color I see when I look at Pelosi, Reid, ACORN, SEIU…

Precinct Delegate since 2010

 
 
 
 
 

Nobody is calliung for a Third Party...and you need to drop it forth with...

AceInTX (Diary) Monday, October 26th at 5:29PM EST (link)

This is a special circumstance and nothing more…

What we need is the party that “SAYS” it is the party of conservatives to actually start acting like it…

The “Big Tent” analogy isn’t the correct one…the correct one is a MAGNET…we need to be a MAGNET that draws these independents in who are sick and tired of what’s going on in WashingtonFred Thompson

Ace, I'm not calling for a third party, either.

Steph C (Diary) Monday, October 26th at 6:03PM EST (link)

I’m calling for conservatism. Sometimes you find it in the most unlikely of places and Hoffman is, officially, a third party candidate.

However, IIRC, part of one of his stump speeches was about returning Republicans to conservative principles. So, yes, it is a special circumstance but I have a feeling there are going to be even more of those special circumstances coming up if the establishment Republicans don’t start getting the message.

Oh, certainly not enough to change the national political party makeup but certainly enough to make sure the message is heard, loud and clear.

“[I]f the public are bound to yield obedience to laws to which they cannot give their approbation, they are slaves to those who make such laws and enforce them.” –Candidus in the Boston Gazette, 1772
Hillbilly Politics

We agree on the goal...it's a revitalized Conservative Party...The Republican Party!

AceInTX (Diary) Monday, October 26th at 7:03PM EST (link)

I understand what’s at stake…and the subtleties surrounding the Hoffman candidacy….it’s the perfect storm where sending a message is concerned…

I wasn’t aiming at you with that…but any talk of a third party is wrong right now because I think the message is getting through to the bosses….and we have to exhaust all possibilities of dragging the Republican Party back to conservatism before a third party in considered…and if the decision is made to go that route after all other hope is abandoned of bringing the party back…then that step will have to bew taken with the full knowledge that the Democrats will become the majority party for a decade at least because even in the unlikely scenerio where a third party is successfully started it would require the eventual dissolution of one of the other two parties for it to succeed…and it wouldn’t happen over night.

regardless…it’s to early to even discuss it especially since we are making ourselves heard here…our power is being felt in Washington…and if Hoffman wins…or beats Scazoffava…the bed wetting will begin in the halls of power…and we’ll start hearing about Reagan all over again…

The “Big Tent” analogy isn’t the correct one…the correct one is a MAGNET…we need to be a MAGNET that draws these independents in who are sick and tired of what’s going on in WashingtonFred Thompson
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Not Necessarily

gemimail Tuesday, October 27th at 12:12PM EST (link)

As we learned in 2008 when McCain should have one handily, it is all about voter turnout. Ordinarily black Americans and the under 30 group do not turn out worth beans. When they suddenly did, all bets were off. This is a special election and ordinarily there would be a low voter turnout. Somehow I just don’t think these two groups will turn out this time.

This is a Republican district (since 1870) that voted 65% Republican in a terrible year for them. Basewood Research has done three polls. A poll on 9/17 gave Hoffman 17%. On 10/13 he was up to 23%. On 10/25 he was up to 31%. That is called momentum, folks. Yesterday’s poll by Neighborhood Research gives him 34%, Owens 29% and Dede only 14%. With 23% undecided, there is no way Dede can win. So a district that has been that solid a Republican district will elect a Democrat for the first time in 138 years? I don’t think so.

 
 

Oh hoiw the mighty have fallen...Newt is only a shadow of his former self...

AceInTX (Diary) Monday, October 26th at 5:23PM EST (link)

he should have ridden off into irrelevance with Alvin and Hiedi years ago…

The “Big Tent” analogy isn’t the correct one…the correct one is a MAGNET…we need to be a MAGNET that draws these independents in who are sick and tired of what’s going on in WashingtonFred Thompson

And he should not have sought relevance

redneck_hippie (Diary) Monday, October 26th at 5:36PM EST (link)

with the ladies of The View. Book pimping is no excuse.

I won’t link it because it’s too close to dinnertime.


Activists Taking Action: Unified Patriots

LOL...Pimp is the word for him...he always loved his own press too much

AceInTX (Diary) Monday, October 26th at 5:48PM EST (link)

I used to love the guy…but the last 5 years make me sick…the last two in particular

The “Big Tent” analogy isn’t the correct one…the correct one is a MAGNET…we need to be a MAGNET that draws these independents in who are sick and tired of what’s going on in WashingtonFred Thompson
 

OMG, he's really off my radar now

Cheryl (Diary) Monday, October 26th at 6:11PM EST (link)

that’s sinking pretty low.

“A general dissolution of principles and manners will more surely overthrow the liberties of America, than the whole force of the common enemy.” –Samuel Adams

“The administrative state has inserted its big paws into our houses, from the toilet bowl to the light socket. Now if it would just stretch those paws from the one to the other at the same time, we might begin to recapture the spirit of ’76.” –Scott Johnson, Powerlineblog.com

Saw Newt on Greta the other night

treeofliberty Tuesday, October 27th at 6:52AM EST (link)

and when asked about NY-23 and the endorsements of Palin and co he said, “Well, I believe that Gov. Palin is fully involved with the conservative movement and has emerged as one if its main leaders”

Huh? Weren’t YOU considered a “leader” in the conservative movement? Why is he saying “conservative movement” as if its some kind of foreign entity?

And to think this man was once considered a rebel conservative in 94 bucking the establishment.

 
 
 
 
 

Please stay bold!

marymom Monday, October 26th at 2:55PM EST (link)

and encourage folks to donate to the Hoffman campaign, and to ongoing Independent Expenditure ad campaigns against BOTH the liberals, Scozzafava and Owens…

www.LifeandLibertyPAC.com

www.MinutemanPAC.com

IEs are important strategy to effectively go negative on the bad guys without the good candidate’s campaign having to do all the heavy lifting of getting “bad” records publicized.

This is fun, but it is vitally more than that, it is truly the first shots of the new Battles of Lexington and Concord — a Republic, only if we can keep it.

You can hear the ads that are running in NY23 on the two websites. Ad time is affordable in the North Country, and Minuteman PAC has been doing its own polling that shows that Hoffman CAN win, if Owens’ negatives continue to go up, and Hoffman gets his vote turned out. Scozzafava has imploded.

Come on, people. This isn’t won yet. Even small donations will help keep the hammer coming down on the opposition.

Fight hard, never stop, never surrender. And no getting cocky until we see herds of RINOs in full retreat!

 

Doug will be on Glenn Beck’s TV show tonight at 5:30 on FoxNews.

snopercod Monday, October 26th at 4:35PM EST (link)

Tune in, ya’ll!

 

That would require them to admit they're wrong...and that the flyover heathen are right...

AceInTX (Diary) Monday, October 26th at 5:15PM EST (link)

Now imagine the possibilities for Hoffman if the GOP ditched Scozzafava and got behind Hoffman

Thus de-legitimizing their Ivy League educations…

Funny thing about arrogance…it will make a man go to his grave believing he was right no matter what happens to prove him a fool!

The “Big Tent” analogy isn’t the correct one…the correct one is a MAGNET…we need to be a MAGNET that draws these independents in who are sick and tired of what’s going on in WashingtonFred Thompson
 

Doug Hoffman Appeared on Glenn Beck Today

DavidS1787 (Diary) Monday, October 26th at 6:52PM EST (link)

For those of my brethren who believe a third

throwback59 Monday, October 26th at 11:38PM EST (link)

party Conservative can’t win in NY I have only two words (no, not those): James Buckley.

 

Sorry, but get real.

Adjoran (Diary) Tuesday, October 27th at 1:57AM EST (link)

I hope Hoffman wins, and I support those who are taking risks to support him. The next NRCC fundraising letter I receive will be returned with a picture of Scozzafava or Scuzzywuzzy or whatever that reject from a Belug Abzug Charm School is called, across which I will scrawl in big red letters: “Not. One. Freaking. Dime.”

Lather, rinse, and repeat . . .

BUT, it is plain that there is little more than wishful thinking in the thought: “. . . it is only 300 people surveyed with a 5% margin of error. What the poll tells us for certain and very reliably is . . . ”

A poll that small tells you NOTHING for certain and with darned little reliability.

“You have the right to your own opinion, but you don’t have the right to your own facts.” ~ Donald Rumsfeld.

I Agree with adjoran

fayers (Diary) Tuesday, October 27th at 9:32AM EST (link)

Cut the money off and let the so called leaders of the Republican’s know that we need ew leadership. what we have now is dems in repubs costumes.
Fred,
Nashville. N.C.

 
 

Newts inconsistency

john_barry Tuesday, October 27th at 1:01PM EST (link)

How can Newt Gingrich justify his support for Dede Scozzafava a pro abortion extremist? As a Catholic he is now going against the Catholic church position on abortion. It is a grave sin for Catholics to vote for or urge support for a pro abortion candidate. How can Newt justify his support for a candidate who has voted 190 times for tax increases? How can he justify his support for an extreme liberal supported by Acorn and the DailyKos? Doug Hoffman is the only conservative candidate in the field. What is the point in having a Republican Party if its candidates are” taxaholics” and “spendaholics”? Vote for Doug Hoffman.

john barry

 

Sea change in the making?

soljerblue Tuesday, October 27th at 5:08PM EST (link)

I’m originally from upstate NY, and am somewhat familiar with the conservative politics of that region. The Conservative Party usually is reliably Republican during election campaigns except when extenuating circumstances exist — which they do in NY-23. This is one of the most conservative districts in the country. Hasn’t elected a Democrat to Congress since 1872. Yet the New York Republican organization foisted Dede-baby off on a district where her stands were bound to strike off sparks. Hoffman wanted to run as a Republican, and was denied. Had there been a primary in the 23rd, he’d have gone head-to-head with Dede, probably beaten here, and been the candidate. Special election. No primary. Hoffman is in the race, but — if he wins — my money says he votes with Congressional Republicans a majority of the time.

Ordinarily, I’d say NY-23 is just another local Congressional special election. But circumstances across the country are making it much more than that, and — if you follow the blogs and conservative web sites — you can feel the excitement building for Hoffman. I think that’s got to have an emotional impact on voters in the 23rd. Don’t expect the media to give Hoffman or voters much credit if he wins. But, hey — that’s OK. The more they ignore us, the better the shock when we scak ‘em on their own 10. TWENTY-10, that is. :-)