Why the NRSC and PAGOP Should Not Waste Time With Gerlach


Rumors abound that the Pennsylvania GOP and/or the NRSC are flirting with both Jim Gerlach and Tom Ridge.

We know Tom Ridge cannot win in Pennsylvania again in a Republican Primary because of the changed dynamics and demographics from the last time he ran. But what of Jim Gerlach?

The PAGOP and NRSC are flirting with him because Gerlach regularly wins re-election as a Republican in D +2 districts. They forget, however, that Pat Toomey did the same — and with larger margins.

In fact, in 2002, the year Toomey and Gerlach were both on the ballot in D +2, Toomey got 57.4% of the vote and Gerlach got 51% of the vote. Toomey did so without selling out his conservative values. Not so with Gerlach.

In fact, and this is key, Gerlach actually has a more liberal voting record on issues Pennsylanians care about than Arlen Specter. If Specter cannot get out of a Republican primary, how on earth could Gerlach? The answer is he can’t.

Consider these issues:

  • Gerlach voted for the Medicare Prescription Drug Act.
  • He voted for the Bridge to Nowhere.
  • He voted to allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to continue borrowing money from the Treasury.
  • He voted for the mortgage bailout program.
  • He voted for TARP
  • He voted against the right of workers to cast a secret ballot for unionization.
  • He voted against drilling in ANWR.
  • He voted against the same-sex marriage ban.
  • He voted against lifting the moratorium on natural gas production.
  • He voted for outrageous pork projects like California’s Mule and packers, Missouri’s Jazz Mueseum, Maine’s Lobster Institute, and Houston’s zoo.

While these issues may not matter in a general election in Pennsylvania, they matter greatly in a Republican Primary in Pennsylvania and each of these votes works in Pat Toomey’s favor.

So the question is this: do the NRSC and PAGOP want to spend resources trying to beat Pat Toomey in the primary or do they want to focus on beating Arlen Specter? Because if they rough up Toomey now, they can’t beat him, but they make him very vulnerable.

In the meantime, there are more than 400 days before the 2010 general election. The situation is not static. The historic trends will most likely work in Toomey’s favor.


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89 Comments Leave a comment

Why can't the GOP support Toomey?

Kayla Sunday, May 3rd at 8:56PM EST (link)

Did this guy kill a baby or something? Why can’t they stand behind a solid conservative? I thought they were on some kind of listening tour. Well people are tired of them Dem lite. We want the real thing.

I think it's a reaction to Santorum's loss

scarlos (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 10:45PM EST (link)

Which they say is because he was “Too Conservative” for Pennsylvania.

Which is an argument that I don’t buy in the slightest, given that “Moderate” Mike DeWine won only 3 more percent in significantly more Republican (about 2-3 points more to be precise) Ohio.

Socialism is Oligarchy in disguise

Santorum was accused of being dirty

Beaglescout (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 1:33AM EST (link)

I don’t think I believe he was corrupt, but he got beaten in the year in which Dems cared about corruption. Well, they always care about Republican “corruption,” including anything that can be painted that way, but not so much in their own party.

“A nation which can prefer disgrace to danger is prepared for a master, and deserves one.”

–Alexander Hamilton
 
 
 

Why can't the GOP support Toomey?

Kayla Sunday, May 3rd at 8:56PM EST (link)

Did this guy kill a baby or something? Why can’t they stand behind a solid conservative? I thought they were on some kind of listening tour. Well people are tired of them Dem lite. We want the real thing.

I don't understand this either...

clement Sunday, May 3rd at 9:53PM EST (link)

The amount of spending it would take to beat Toomey would leave the winner, no matter who it was, cash starved. The constant back and forth negative ads will alienate some group of people that would have otherwise voted for that person. Just back Toomey, save the cash and go into the general relatively fresh (I don’t think the other (R) challenger is going anywhere). Let the dems (Specter vs. ??) bloody each other up and limp into the general.

This whole ‘Toomey can’t win’ seems like it will be nothing but a self fulfilling prophecy should the GOP continue to push it. How about let the electorate decide instead of trying to push a candidate on them. Maybe that is why almost 70% of GOP think republicans in congress are out of touch.

 
 

The bigger issue is why either Ridge or Gerlach would bother

red_oakster (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 9:15PM EST (link)

I think Ridge could win a primary, but any primary against Toomey would be expensive and divisive. For ANY Republican nominee to win a general election in PA, they need to attract conservqtives and moderates. If Ridge or Gerlach get in now and manage to win a primary, they’ll leave a lot of alienated Republicans. Ridge has a legacy and Gerlach has a future, and running for this seat could ruin either.

Look for all these guys to take a pass.

 

Local support for Pat Toomey

mecat212 Sunday, May 3rd at 9:43PM EST (link)

I have had the most profound dislike for Arlen Spector since he defected the Democratic party in Philadelphia over 35 years ago to run for city District Attorney. If there was an alternate candidate on the Republican primary ballot, I voted for him or her. In the general election, I wrote in another representative. I voted for,campaigned and financially supported Pat Toomey when he ran against Benedict Arlen. Both Jim Gerlach and Tom Ridge are light weights. We are clammering at the doors of the Montgomery county Pennsylvania Republican committee and also our local people to support Pat Toomey’s candidacy. He came so close the last time. While president and founder of the Club For Growth he exposed the profound waste that our government spent and he is a conservative capitalist’s dream.
Pennsylvania as gradually turned blue due to the considerable influx of Philadelphia Democrats exiting the high tax burden and poor public school system of the city and their voting record shows it. Why can’t they understand that when digging up their liberal roots it is necessary to put down more conservative ones in the suburbs or else they will get the same thing they desired to leave behind.

Now if we can only get rid of Fast Eddie Rendell in Harrisburg, maybe Pennsylvania can get back their rosy blush of prosperity lost so many years ago,

 

As a PA resident

kat (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 9:49PM EST (link)

I don’t get the “We know Tom Ridge cannot win in Pennsylvania again in a Republican Primary” meme. I know many, many Republicans and Democrats alike in this state that long for the good days of Ridge as Governor. He was well respected and still is. In my experience, the GOP in PA tends more to fiscal conservatism than social conservatism. I have lived through Repub and Dem governors alike and Ridge was one of the best we have had in PA. I would take him any day over pro-life Governor Casey.

I look forward to a good debate, no matter who runs. Not dirty, just a good debate. If Toomey represents our side better, certainly I would vote for him. To shut down any competition before it even starts goes against my beliefs.

And I second mecat212′s opinion on Fast Eddie. Thank goodness for term limits – next fall we elect Eddie’s replacement.

“Democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not.” Thomas Jefferson

Well said---let's let the Pennsylvanians sort this out

smagar (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 10:43PM EST (link)

It IS their state, and their Senator, after all.

I do think that the NRSC shouldn’t be picking winners and losers, at least just yet. By all means, have them do their polling and determine which candidates have strengths and weaknesses. But, let’s not have the political establishment in DC preemptively kneecap anyone.

“Who will stand/On either hand/And guard this bridge with me?” (Macaulay)

Bingo

dld1717 (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 10:45PM EST (link)

I don’t get why some scream and throw tantrums at the prospective of having an open and free election

Any Republican should run for Senate Race and PA voters decide and no one will force anyone to vote for anyone with a gun held up to their head

Well dld NO ONE here said that someone shouldn't run in PA...

JadedByPolitics (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:00PM EST (link)

against Toomey HOWEVER don’t you think that person should DECIDE for themselves and NOT have the National idiots who think they know better FORCE them to? There has already BEEN a competitor to Specter and it was Toomey and guess what HE WON! Specter saw he was going to get his BUTT WIPED OUT and LEFT!

The only difference in this race now is that Toomey having shown Specter the door is now having the National Republicans denigrate him by BEGGING someone, anyone to run against him in the primary which will take LOADS of money and bitterness that will be used against whichever one won by the Democrat in the general.

Why is it so hard for YOU to understand that Toomey in a technical knockout WON THE RIGHT TO CARRY THE REPUBLICAN BANNER INTO THE GENERAL!

I don't know why that double posted but oh well it was RIGHT twice....nt

JadedByPolitics (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:01PM EST (link)

5! It was worth saying twice - nt

David123 (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:18PM EST (link)

David123

 
 

Those capital letters made all the difference

smagar (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:04PM EST (link)

I could literally see you standing on top of the soapbox, waving hands clenched in fists of rage.

Yep, that closed the deal for me…

“Who will stand/On either hand/And guard this bridge with me?” (Macaulay)

WOW shocker smager coming in to help his buddy dld...

JadedByPolitics (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:26PM EST (link)

you guys sure are freindly with each other that way……whats up smager you think dld cannot win an argument all by his lonesome.

OBTW I don’t care to deal with you at all so you had nothing to close. I am on a soapbox and I am getting my message out and yes I am passionate and yes my fists of rage are waving in the air how do you get your message out other than you know whining.

that should be "friendly" that way with each other..heh...

JadedByPolitics (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:28PM EST (link)

when up on one’s soapbox one can let their typing get away from them YEP that is my story and I am sticking to it!

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Toomey CANNOT Win

dld1717 (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 10:36PM EST (link)

I am so tired of the mantra from some here.

Fact: PA is blue state now
Fact: Ridge is still very popular
Fact: Toomey has been branded right of Rick and we all know how first impressions are hard to overcome

Gerlach: He has been tested more times, is the last remaining Republicans in PA suburbs and a district that went for Obama with 58% no less

Can this site please stop the war on Republicans attacking other Republicans and start focusing on electing Republicans

Probably about as soon as the NRSC and the RNC

mbecker908 (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 10:40PM EST (link)

stop making war on on Republicans.

As far as Toomey goes, we’ll see.

 

Toomey's old district voted 56% for Obama

scarlos (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 10:58PM EST (link)

and Toomey posted generally good results, winning by 10 points in the anti-republican 1998 house elections.

Also, the reason teh Suburbs are turning blue is not really because the voters there are shifting party loyalty–it’s because the Downtown Liberals are moving in. Philadelphia proper has lost a few Congressional districts in the 1990 and 2000 sensus, and teh suburbs are gaining them.

Naturally, this doesn’t really affect the state-wide voting patterns

Socialism is Oligarchy in disguise

Toomey won squat

dld1717 (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:03PM EST (link)

Toomey has not won the right to carry the Republican banner in general election at all

I’d like to see poll of all voters Arlen vs Toomey and I am willing to bet Arlen would have 15 point lead

Doubtful

Kayla Sunday, May 3rd at 11:10PM EST (link)

If Specter had a 15 point lead over Toomey, he never would have left the party.

 

Doubtful

Kayla Sunday, May 3rd at 11:10PM EST (link)

If Specter had a 15 point lead over Toomey, he never would have left the party.

actually Kayla Specter was down 51 to 30 in the poll that made him...

JadedByPolitics (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:21PM EST (link)

weenie out and go D to save his Senate seat….heck there was a poll in December that had Chrissie Matthews beating Specter by 8 points by Rasmussen so he is not like by D’s in PA either!

 

Poll

dld1717 (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:28PM EST (link)

was only of registered Republicans

Did not include Indep and Dems which Arlen was bound to do better with then a Toomey

which Arlen was "bound" to do better against....and

JadedByPolitics (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:31PM EST (link)

you came up with that supposition from where? the lucky charms cereal box?

Duh Moderate

dld1717 (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:38PM EST (link)

why would a Indep voter who is inclined to be a moderate be more inclined to vote for Conservative?

Did u get your political reasoning in a church pew?

Mind the religious jabs

Neil Stevens (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:40PM EST (link)

This is a Republican site. We’re not reflexively anti-religion.

I think you’te getting your scripts crossed up.

RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
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“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder

 

Well no I didn't get my political reasoning in a church pew...

JadedByPolitics (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:44PM EST (link)

I am not religious but nice way to throw the religious amongst us here at Redstate under the bus because you disagree with me (your true colors are showing). Your straw man of Independents is easily blown apart because an I is already a moderate by the very definition of Independent they are neither left nor right. I question where you get your political reasoning from as I personally think it is the McCain, Specter school of to hell with everyone but yourself!

 
 
 
 
 
 

Disagree

dld1717 (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:06PM EST (link)

Suburb voters work in the city and are socially liberal. They support abortion, gay rights, the arts, and more then likely hated the Iraq War and have been alienated by Republicans on some religious fronts as well.

I want to know who holds Toomey old house seat?

 
 

I am so tired of you not seemingly understanding

eburke (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:37PM EST (link)

that the anger and ire on this site isn’t at Gerlach or Ridge running, it’s at the NRSC for *again* sticking their nose into a primary, and once again for the ‘moderate he can win’ candidate. This is the same crap they pulled in RI where they weren’t just content to support Linc, they actively attacked and destroyed his conservative opponent.

What don’t you get about conservatives being sick and tired of being asked for their time and money only to see it spent supporting candidates who don’t support thier views? What part don’t you get about conservatives being beyond tired of having a moderate or liberal ‘annointed’ by the ‘political class’ and then being told to sit down, shut up, and vote for the ‘Party’ and if they don’t they’re accused of being disloyal by people like you.

What part of being repeatedly used and abused are you not getting?

“All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.”

Unified Patriots

I was RI voter

dld1717 (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:45PM EST (link)

who voted for Linc over Laffey cause I knew Laffey had zero chance of winning

Granted we still lost but the NRSC was wise to do what they did in that race

I am a Republican first it seems some are Conservatives first and that is where the clash is on these fronts and I suspect it will only continue to hurt party unity

Why am I not surprised?

eburke (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:51PM EST (link)

So, you have no problem spending millions of dollars propping up a guy who didn’t even vote for the presidential nominee of his party? I think you may have just lost whatever credibility you still had.

So, question for you. Since winning elections for people with an R next to their name (even when they don’t return the favor, cf. Linc Chafee) seems to be the only criteria you have for voting for a candidate, if Barack Obama switches to the Republican part in 2012, will you vote for him? I mean, after all, he’d be a Republican.

“All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.”

Unified Patriots

:smack: yep that is going to leave a mark...

JadedByPolitics (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:53PM EST (link)

I believe you have called that RIGHT he would vote for Obama if he changed party id’s in a NY or RI minute :-)

 

No

dld1717 (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:56PM EST (link)

You don’t get it. Linc was only Republican who could win in RI and now the state has 2 Dem Senators for whenever they choose and neither will face a contested general again. Holding that seat was only a win in my eyes as it should of been a Dem seat and he then at least he voted for GOP Majority Leader

I would not vote for Obama in Primary because I would have better candidates to choose and more who I feel could win

Question: Is it better to lose an election with holding your principles held firmly intact without budging or allowing some wiggle room and winning and enlarging the base?

I choose later by way

I would not vote for Obama in Primary because

eburke (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 12:05AM EST (link)

….blah, blah, blah.

So…..you *would* vote for him if he won the nomination?

“All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.”

Unified Patriots

YES

dld1717 (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 12:14AM EST (link)

I always vote straight ticket Republican

This, folks, says it all. And WE'RE the mind-

eburke (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 12:16AM EST (link)

numbed robots.

All I can say is “Wow”

“All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.”

Unified Patriots

 

Winning elections does not grow the base, winning with principles does

Beaglescout (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 1:44AM EST (link)

If your political party is a jellyfish that takes the shape of the container its in then you don’t actually have a party. You have the container. And if the Republican jellyfish is shaped by a Democrat container then it might as well be Democrat for all the good it does. Republicans need to promote principled Republican candidates, not Republican jellyfish like Chaffee, McCain, and Gerlach.

Democrats will vote for a fighting, principled Republican. They haven’t seen any such thing for so long they haven’t had a chance to vote for him or her.

“A nation which can prefer disgrace to danger is prepared for a master, and deserves one.”

–Alexander Hamilton

GREAT analogy, Beaglescout, especially this line:

eburke (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 10:25AM EST (link)

“And if the Republican jellyfish is shaped by a Democrat container then it might as well be Democrat for all the good it does.”

Nail…that was Mr. Hammer

“All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.”

Unified Patriots

 
 
 
 
 
 

And again, that shows how lousy a judge of candidates you are

Neil Stevens (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:53PM EST (link)

Linc still lost, and on top of that, Linc also has switched parties and is running against the Republican for Governor.

Funny how the guys you like never seem to stay Republican.

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Your point

dld1717 (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 12:01AM EST (link)

So I should of voted for Steve even though he would of lost by 20 points or more in general?

You don’t get it cause I am wiling to bet u reside in a really red state

Lifelong California resident here

Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 12:05AM EST (link)

You lose. Again.

RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
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Wow, not only a loser but doesn't read your posts either.

The_Gadfly (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 1:16PM EST (link)

I had you pegged for a purple or red trending purple state myself, but of all the directors and other IPs on this board, you’re one of the top contenders for the ‘run somebody who can win’ strategy. Amazing!

But maybe I remember that more than others because I’m a strong advocate for the ‘stand on principles even if you occasionally lose’ strategy and we’ve gotten into it once or twice on that issue.

California's a special case

Neil Stevens (Diary) Wednesday, May 6th at 7:06AM EST (link)

If I were in Connecticut or Maine I might feel differently, but California’s more like a Pennsylvania: huge and hugely diverse.

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And to further burst your stereotype, (and before

eburke (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 12:12AM EST (link)

you get the chance to ask) I’m from MN which just elected Al Freaking Franken to the Senate and I …..wait for it….not only voted for Norm Coleman but gave money to him and put his sign up in my yard (and FTR…Norm’s ACU rating was in the mid-60s)

But hey, I’m just a knuckle-dragging Neandrethal conservative who would rather cling to my principles than vote for someone who’s ever, ever, ever, voted in a way I don’t like.

“All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.”

Unified Patriots

 
 
 

Party unity isn't helped by a stop-Toomey movement

David123 (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 12:07AM EST (link)

If Gerlach wins by beating Toomey and Republicans outside PA stay neutral, fine.

If Ridge wins by beating Toomey and Republicans outside PA stay neutral, fine.

But NRSC should either stay neutral or back Toomey since he’s the current front runner among the Republicans. Also, I suspect that Toomey is pretty popular with grass-roots Republicans nationwide by forcing Specter to fish or cut bait.

Well, at least Specter isn’t a RINO anymore.

David123

 
 
 

Toomey CANNOT win!! Wow, I'm impressed

eburke (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 12:03AM EST (link)

with your prognosticating skills. Didn’t realize that someone died and appointed you as the omniscient one.

Is that anything like Rudy was the only person who could beat Hillary for president? I’ve kinda been out of the loop so is it President Clinton or President Guiliani right now?

“All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.”

Unified Patriots

The Americans at Valley Forge and Bastogne couldn't win either

David123 (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 12:11AM EST (link)

:-)

David123

It was over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor (nt)

Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 12:12AM EST (link)

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The Government Lied about Pearl Harbor!

David123 (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 12:18AM EST (link)

but I liked John Belushi better than Rev Wright

David123

12/7 was an inside job (nt)

Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 12:20AM EST (link)

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depends on your definition of "inside"

JLenardDetroit (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 12:23AM EST (link)

Regards from NoMoTown (the MOTORlessCITY)
“Liberals, looking to do for? America what they’ve done for? Detroit! which is DESTROY IT!”
“I think, therefore I am Conservative”
“Conservative by choice, Republican by necessity”
“You can lead a Liberal to the Truth/Facts, but you cannot make them THINK!”
“Romney [No, not my first choice] does NOT have a MORMON problem. He has a, far too many Americans; these days; are MORONS problem!”


(RS:Help) (JLD) (Hollyweird) (Brain-deads) (SPIN-cycle) (Obamaocare) (Party of kNOw) (Conservatism) (TEApeats) (respectful) (message) (Warning: Children Will Die!!)
Heil “O” Hell No Obamao is NOT MY PRESIDENT! “No U won’t”
I want “O” to FAIL (here, here, & whole Diary (Ofail) here, is why)
The first Liberal was Satan” – a Rush caller (other Quotes)

 
 
 
 

David, you simply *must* stop interjecting facts

eburke (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 12:13AM EST (link)

into these discussions. It’s so *rude* and ….well…intolerant of you.

“All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.”

Unified Patriots

 
 
 

You first.

The_Gadfly (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 1:05PM EST (link)

And I’m deadly serious. You rant against Toomey on this site as though he were Specter. You do the same for every other conservative running in every other race anywhere in the country while claiming the rest of us just don’t get it.

Well guess what, if Toomey runs against Specter in the general, it will be a landslide for Toomey. Specter is joined at the hip to the corruption in DC and that is something PA residents won’t forget, regardless of party, and as long as the machines in Philly and Pittsburgh don’t corrupt the general election. I know. I grew up in PA and that’s where my heart still lives. In some ways, it’s sort of like being from Texas, no matter where you live, you still know where home is.

 
 

NRSC and NRCC

dld1717 (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 10:44PM EST (link)

had better start endorsing candidates like the Dems do in primaries

We need to win elections

There you go again

Neil Stevens (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:10PM EST (link)

All you do is badmouth Republicans. You’re a joke.

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Smile

dld1717 (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:27PM EST (link)

Smile

No one likes a meanie

And nobody likes the dead horse you're beating

Neil Stevens (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:29PM EST (link)

After all, weren’t you and the NRSC on Specter’s side just a little bit ago?

Are you guys even going to acknowledge how wrong you were before continuing your vendetta against Toomey?

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If u mean

dld1717 (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:35PM EST (link)

wanting to win elections instead of throwing a hussie fit if u don’t get your way

I am wrong lol

Will you admit that Toomey has already been portrayed as far right of center and that first impressions like these are hard to overcome? Will you admit that PA is a blue state now and we can’t run a candidate who could win in SC?

Portrayed by you? Sure

Neil Stevens (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:39PM EST (link)

But you don’t get to use your own words to further your own cause.

RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
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Endorsing candidates like the Dems do...

mbecker908 (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:32PM EST (link)

I would have no problem with that.

When the Dems endorse, and provide money for, a candidate they demand and GET discipline in the ranks. I’ll take that every day.

 
 

Why isn't Toomey running for Governor?

smagar (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:07PM EST (link)

Isn’t PA having the same kinds of budget problems and deficit problems other states are having? Well then, wouldn’t Toomey’s fiscal discipline bona fides serve him well statewide?

At the risk of tripping the “Threadjack Alert” switch, I offer this as food for thought.

“Who will stand/On either hand/And guard this bridge with me?” (Macaulay)

 

Arlen Specter has certain advantages in the general election

David123 (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:13PM EST (link)

1. Incumbency
2. name recognition
3. attractive to Democrats, especially now that he is registered as such
4. attractive to independents

He will have these advantages over ANY Republican challenger. He will win if Barrack Obama is perceived as having saved America or been good for America in 2010.

Toomey will have the advantage of a fired up Republican base. If most people believe the country is on the WRONG track in 2010, and an anti-democrat, anti-incumbent wave sweeps over the country, Specter will be vulnerable, and Toomey will be the Republican best able to exploit the vulnerability. Ridge and Gerlach will not be able to attack Specter for being an incumbent Washington-insider nearly as well as Toomey will.

The Republicans may have only a slim chance of winning the Senate seat with Toomey, but with Ridge or Gerlach, their chance is microscopic or none. For Republicans outside Pennsylvania to try to foist someone other than Toomey on the people is not a winning idea.

David123

Specter, "Attractive" To Democrats?!

IJB Monday, May 4th at 12:45AM EST (link)

Hardly.

As several of us around here are pointing out, the odds are pretty good that ol’ Arlen won’t even make it to the General.

Either way, I’d still put money on Toomey to win it all, based on how fast Obama’s ship is sinking.

 
 

Disagree

dld1717 (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:27PM EST (link)

How does Toomey win over suburb voters who are socially liberal?

If its a Ridge vs Arlen race; Ridge can’t be portrayed as product of right wing seeing PA voters know he isn’t and I am sure Arlen’s age and health with be in back of voters minds

Tom Ridge is very popular in the state and would be favorite over Arlen even the liberal sites where all saying it today

Such confidence you have in the Republican party

Neil Stevens (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:37PM EST (link)

If we have to win on age, conceding the issues, then why bother?

RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules

Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.

“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder

 

If socially liberal voters are going to carry the day in PA,

David123 (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:37PM EST (link)

why did the Democrats pick a pro-life guy to run against Santorum?

David123

I am so glad u mentioned this

dld1717 (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:42PM EST (link)

Do u honestly think that liberal feminist voters stayed home in that Casey-Rick race? No and Casey has been no pro life Senator

They voted for Casey just like in the end conservatives would vote for Ridge

They should

JLenardDetroit (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 12:08AM EST (link)

though they many may indeed NOT vote….

Those principles work so well when the other side, worse than our softest candidates, win — NOT!!!

on your other point — Democrat PLINOs.

Regards from NoMoTown (the MOTORlessCITY)
“Liberals, looking to do for? America what they’ve done for? Detroit! which is DESTROY IT!”
“I think, therefore I am Conservative”
“Conservative by choice, Republican by necessity”
“You can lead a Liberal to the Truth/Facts, but you cannot make them THINK!”
“Romney [No, not my first choice] does NOT have a MORMON problem. He has a, far too many Americans; these days; are MORONS problem!”


(RS:Help) (JLD) (Hollyweird) (Brain-deads) (SPIN-cycle) (Obamaocare) (Party of kNOw) (Conservatism) (TEApeats) (respectful) (message) (Warning: Children Will Die!!)
Heil “O” Hell No Obamao is NOT MY PRESIDENT! “No U won’t”
I want “O” to FAIL (here, here, & whole Diary (Ofail) here, is why)
The first Liberal was Satan” – a Rush caller (other Quotes)

For the Record (needing to be clear before someone trys to put words in my mouth)

JLenardDetroit (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 12:19AM EST (link)

I prefer/support Toomey and that Ridge stay out (at least this time, let him step up and run next time the Senate slot against a Dem is available in PA)

I’m busy stuffing my face with food, I don’t need anyone trying to cram some words in there too right now ;-)

Regards from NoMoTown (the MOTORlessCITY)
“Liberals, looking to do for? America what they’ve done for? Detroit! which is DESTROY IT!”
“I think, therefore I am Conservative”
“Conservative by choice, Republican by necessity”
“You can lead a Liberal to the Truth/Facts, but you cannot make them THINK!”
“Romney [No, not my first choice] does NOT have a MORMON problem. He has a, far too many Americans; these days; are MORONS problem!”


(RS:Help) (JLD) (Hollyweird) (Brain-deads) (SPIN-cycle) (Obamaocare) (Party of kNOw) (Conservatism) (TEApeats) (respectful) (message) (Warning: Children Will Die!!)
Heil “O” Hell No Obamao is NOT MY PRESIDENT! “No U won’t”
I want “O” to FAIL (here, here, & whole Diary (Ofail) here, is why)
The first Liberal was Satan” – a Rush caller (other Quotes)

 
 
 

Aw David, there ya go again confusing the

eburke (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:43PM EST (link)

whole situation with facts. That just ruins the whole SoCons are ruining the party meme. Ya gotta stop bringing up details like that, ‘k?

“All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.”

Unified Patriots

 
 

Oh yeah, and the liberal sites certainly have

eburke (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:41PM EST (link)

our best interests at heart.

The Dem’s would hang GWB and the Iraq war around Ridge’s neck so fast it’ll make your head swim.

“All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.”

Unified Patriots

 

I am inclined to agree with you DLD

McKinley (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 1:53AM EST (link)

at least on principle in giving some leeway to moderates in the Northeast on conservative principles, but I can’t imagine Ridge would be a stronger candidate.

Spector should not win this election, even with Obama support. Liberal democrats will not show up to vote for him and conservatives will likely stay home if Ridge beats Toomey in a nasty primary. If PA social conservatives have to choose between two squishes like Ridge/Specter, many might stay home.

 
 

U mean

dld1717 (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:47PM EST (link)

same war Arlen voted for? The same man Arlen voted to make HomeLand Security Chief?

Two things

Neil Stevens (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:50PM EST (link)

Every time you write U instead of YOU you beclown yourself

Every time you fail to hit Reply To This you fail the RS IQ test.

RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules

Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.

“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder

Neil

dld1717 (Diary) Sunday, May 3rd at 11:58PM EST (link)

I refuse to resort to your level of being a daily kos angry boy poster

Disagree with me but don’t resort to name calling it only shows u are on losing side of an adult argument

So Neil is a daily kos angry boy poster? REALLY?...

JadedByPolitics (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 12:06AM EST (link)

and you find yourself to be mentally secure in your debate style? I would suggest that you STOP with the hating on Toomey and people will not have to call you out on it. You have provided NOTHING substantial that shows that Toomey cannot win other than your own thought process. The man was told he couldn’t win his Congressiional seat by the same “talking heads” who say he cannot win now.

Hey, his debate style is fine

Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 12:14AM EST (link)

Stomping his foot and saying TOOMEY CAN’T WIN BECAUSE TOOMEY CAN’T WIN BECAUSE I SAY SO is unassailable logic. :-)

RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules

Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.

“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder

 
 

:grabbing dld1717's ear, twisting: Liars don't get to insult their hosts.

Moe Lane (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 12:16AM EST (link)

You really should keep your story straight.

http://www.redstate.com/vladimir/2008/10/04/la-primaries-including-the-reelection-bid-of/#comment-156

Mobying is a definite no-no. But I’m a nice person, so this is what we’ll do: you’re going to add the following to your signature.

I have spent the last few months pretending to be a conservative and a Republican on this site; this was a lie, and a stupid lie.

…and you’re going to do that before you post here again. Do that, and you may live.

Grok?

not quite sure how you get there from that

JLenardDetroit (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 2:10AM EST (link)

looked like a handicapping of a race and little more, but hey – you guys have seen his behavior far more than I have. I expected much stonger evidence. — Now ragging on him about his confrontational attitude and holding grudges is another thing ;-)

It really makes me ill to sound like Rodney King “Can’t we all get along?” ;-) lol

If he is indeed a bad influence, just ban him out-right. Take care friends.

Regards from NoMoTown (the MOTORlessCITY)
“Liberals, looking to do for? America what they’ve done for? Detroit! which is DESTROY IT!”
“I think, therefore I am Conservative”
“Conservative by choice, Republican by necessity”
“You can lead a Liberal to the Truth/Facts, but you cannot make them THINK!”
“Romney [No, not my first choice] does NOT have a MORMON problem. He has a, far too many Americans; these days; are MORONS problem!”


(RS:Help) (JLD) (Hollyweird) (Brain-deads) (SPIN-cycle) (Obamaocare) (Party of kNOw) (Conservatism) (TEApeats) (respectful) (message) (Warning: Children Will Die!!)
Heil “O” Hell No Obamao is NOT MY PRESIDENT! “No U won’t”
I want “O” to FAIL (here, here, & whole Diary (Ofail) here, is why)
The first Liberal was Satan” – a Rush caller (other Quotes)

 
 
 
 
 

What did u say

dld1717 (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 12:12AM EST (link)

reading your posts is like wanting to take a red pen to all your grammar errors

So you are disrespecting Neil and now Erick's writing....

JadedByPolitics (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 12:15AM EST (link)

what is wrong with you? perhaps if you are allowed to stay you should just stick with the election polling and STOP trying to talk politics because you are absolutely an unintelligent small minded person.

 
 

cause I disagree with u

dld1717 (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 12:20AM EST (link)

so if every poster on this site does not stay 100% in conservative ideology then they are unintelligent and get attacked?

I have made no bones about being what many here identify as a moderate but make no mistake I have worked, gave money, and done everything possible to elect Republicans. If Toomey wins primary he’ll get check from me and I am sure you would do same if Ridge won?

I always vote for my parties nominee in each and every race

That would be a 'did not grok.'

Moe Lane (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 12:24AM EST (link)

http://www.redstate.com/erick/2009/05/03/why-the-nrsc-and-pagop-should-not-waste-time-with-gerlach/#comment-22759

On the off chance that this is mere drunkenness – the theory has been at least offered, based mostly on the odd spelling and grammatical conventions – email us when you sober up.

 

Rep Cannibalism, Respect, etc.. - neutral party commenting ;-)

JLenardDetroit (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 12:38AM EST (link)

Not looking to condemn NOR defend here….

People have good and bad days, and it seems that there are several people having a bad-day that need to calm down and let us be respectful….

As for his (dld) comment about him being “Moderate” and “always voting Republican” – by his comments (and I DO NOT know him well enough, so I’ll take him on his word in relation to this), that would make him a Red-Dog and I have no problem with that…..

We do tend, sometimes, to have people deciding to over-react, IMO, and be a bit too harsh when we needn’t be. Goes back to long ago conversations about Cannibalising our own!

Regards from NoMoTown (the MOTORlessCITY)
“Liberals, looking to do for? America what they’ve done for? Detroit! which is DESTROY IT!”
“I think, therefore I am Conservative”
“Conservative by choice, Republican by necessity”
“You can lead a Liberal to the Truth/Facts, but you cannot make them THINK!”
“Romney [No, not my first choice] does NOT have a MORMON problem. He has a, far too many Americans; these days; are MORONS problem!”


(RS:Help) (JLD) (Hollyweird) (Brain-deads) (SPIN-cycle) (Obamaocare) (Party of kNOw) (Conservatism) (TEApeats) (respectful) (message) (Warning: Children Will Die!!)
Heil “O” Hell No Obamao is NOT MY PRESIDENT! “No U won’t”
I want “O” to FAIL (here, here, & whole Diary (Ofail) here, is why)
The first Liberal was Satan” – a Rush caller (other Quotes)

 

Heck we'd be happy with 60% agreement, at least on the important issues. The people you defend barely crack 40%.

Martin Knight (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 7:43AM EST (link)

It’s thinking like yours that has brought the GOP down to its current low status. To be even more blunt; people like you are slow-acting poison.

 
 

To claim to be a moderate is one thing

Scope (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 4:49AM EST (link)

as dld has done. It seems that whenever he posts, he ignites the passions of the Conservatives. He keeps repeating the same thing over and over and over again. To ignore warnings from the moderators, more than once, is bannable in my opinion. It crosses the line. Many of us have been warned, and we have taken that warning to heart.

 

To claim to be a moderate is one thing

Scope (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 4:49AM EST (link)

as dld has done. It seems that whenever he posts, he ignites the passions of the Conservatives. He keeps repeating the same thing over and over and over again. To ignore warnings from the moderators, more than once, is bannable in my opinion. It crosses the line. Many of us have been warned, and we have taken that warning to heart.

dld is not a moderate. Jim DeMint is a moderate. Tom Coburn is a moderate. Snowe and Collins are ...

Martin Knight (Diary) Monday, May 4th at 7:47AM EST (link)

… only moderates if you agree with the New York Times definition of it.