Having said the other day that I though Ken Blackwell was unfortunately not picking up traction, I’ve talked to several people who disagree and make a very persuasive case for Blackwell.
At the same time, the colossal mud slinging going on is getting funnier by the day and nastier.
Here’s the scenario laid out right now.
If Duncan cannot win on the first ballot and does not get close enough to get it on the second ballot, he’ll shift his support to Steele.
If Duncan looks to have victory within grasp, Steele will shift support to Duncan.
That makes Duncan the front runner.
But, there are a number of Duncan supporters who won’t switch to Steele. If Duncan does not get close on the first ballot, part of his supporters will go to Dawson, some to Anuzis, and some to Blackwell — not just to Steele.
On the fourth ballot, if Dawson hasn’t picked up support and Anuzis has not picked up support, conservatives will want someone to rally to.
A key for Blackwell is that he has commitments through six ballots, which means he is not getting out. Likewise, sources close to his camp and individual members I’ve talked to who previously committed publicly are privately saying they’re taking a second look as the meeting begins and are starting to lean toward Blackwell.
Anuzis is in an interesting spot. Most, if not all, of Blackwell’s supporters, will stick will Blackwell. There are interpersonal dynamics between Anuzis and John Yob of Michigan that contribute to that. If Steele flounders, Anuzis could pick up a number of those votes, except Jim Bopp possibly, unintentionally sabotaged that effort today by sending out an anti-Steele oppo dump that included an email from Anuzis pointing out Steele’s work with the Log Cabin Republicans.
Still, as people are falling back away from Duncan, if Steele does not seem viable, those who don’t want a Southern Chair are going to take a second look at Anuzis.
Back to Blackwell, his camp makes a good comparison to Jim Nicholson who came in third in 1997, but after the fifth ballot won. If Blackwell’s supporters actually do hold on through six ballots and the people I’ve talked to really do waiver, which is a good possibility, he could be the next chairman. We should not count him out.
Daniel Horowitz
Neil Stevens
Moe Lane
Steve Maley
Jake Walker
Mike Duncan? Really?
TxCon (Diary) Wednesday, January 28th at 12:32PM EST (link)Why does the GOP never see a need for change in leadership after the poundings they have taken.It’s truly astonishing.
Procedural question
E Pluribus Unum (Diary) Wednesday, January 28th at 12:48PM EST (link)I ask in ignorance. There are 6 candidates, and by my very crude estimate I have their support among the 168 in this order:
1 = Duncan
2, 3 = Dawson-Steele (about equal)
4, 5 = Blackwell-Anuzis (about equal)
6 = Saltsman
But that’s not the question. Here is the procedural question: After ballot 1, do they drop the last-placer from the ballot, and then after ballot 2, the 5th-placer, and so on?
Probably not, because then there could only be 5 ballots possible. So how does this actually work?
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They probably just keep voting
Neil Stevens (Diary) Wednesday, January 28th at 1:06PM EST (link)Ever read about the old Presidential nomination processes? These things just drag out, to allow deal making to go on.
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I hope whoever wins
kowalski (Diary) Wednesday, January 28th at 1:10PM EST (link)I hope whoever wins will understand that the past four years have not just been a losing period because of external events, that there’s a lot to be done within the party also.
I could do the [bang] [bang] [bang]ing my head against the wall post here, but I’ll leave it at that.
The Jim Bopp thing is kinda sick, really. You have to be twisted to not like Michael Steele because of that oppo. release. He should be working for Brilliant Corners. Maybe he does.
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Trying to log into GOP.com... to no avail.
scottbomb (Diary) Wednesday, January 28th at 1:17PM EST (link)Sorry if this is a little off-topic but I don’t know where else to go with this.
Am I the only one that can’t log into gop.com? I tried last night from home and I’m trying right now from work. I enter my email and passoword, click “Go” and nothing happens. Last night I thought maybe it didn’t like my password so I went through the routine to reset it but never got the email the site told me to watch for.
More Republican party internet/tech incompetence?
www.HowObamaGotElected.com
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1/6 RNC committee cancelled vote on conservative creds
Scope (Diary) Wednesday, January 28th at 1:39PM EST (link)Here is an interesting article from 1/6/09 that points out that Steeles supporters cancelled a vote on who had the proper conservative credentials to lead the RNC. They felt it would be a disadvantage to Steele as he is viewed as the most moderate- (no surprise there).
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/01/06/rnc-committee-opts-against-vote-on-candidates-conservative-cred/#more-34456
I did not know that there is a Conservative Committee of 94 members out of the 168. That gives me greater hope for Blackwell, as I believe he is supposed to be the most conservative of the candidates.
I pray that Blackwell will prevail.
I've got my sledge hammer out...
Lamplighter331 (Diary) Wednesday, January 28th at 2:49PM EST (link)I’ve decided to slam my forehead with it because it would make the headache I have from this whole mess feel a lot better.
Come on!!! Why are we even talking about Duncan?????
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