Why is it that when the economy tanks, politicians forget all about basic economics?


Let’s review: As prices on a product go up, demand for a product decreases. As prices for a product go down, demand for a product increases. It’s basic economics.

Florida is just the latest place where that’s happening. To close a gap in the state budget, the legislature is considering raising the cigarette tax. Being no fan of smoking, I’ve got zero problem with that. The problem, though, is that they want to raise the tax to balance the budget.

Governor Crist, who had been totally against the idea, is changing his tune. Though purported dead as of this writing, the proposal lingers in the hallways of the legislature like the stench a smoker typically leaves behind in an elevator.

Efforts to increase the tax by a dollar are gaining support as the budget continues to fall. Even Governor Charlie Crist is changing his tune from a definite No to “not as yet.”

Of course, the data suggests what economics tells us. If they raise the price, less people will smoke.

While the tax may not be popular among smokers, studies show that for every 10 percent increase in the price of a pack teen smoking drops seven percent and four percent fewer adults pick up the habit.

Note the spin: less people will smoke if they raise the tax. Precisely. Which is good. Except it is not good when trying to balance a budget because it will come up short.

Florida is in a bind with its budget. But resorting to bad economics to patch the budget hole is just going to cause new holes later. In tough economic times, it’s an even dumber idea to tax products as a means of revenue generation. People already inclined to slow purchases will do it even more.


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Simple Erick...Because Conservatism is hard....

Attack Mode (Diary) Wednesday, January 21st at 1:36PM EST (link)

It takes nothing to slap a band-aid on a growing problem and hope to be promoted before the effects can be seen.

On the other hand, being Conservative in your daily life and being Conservative in your governance is much more difficult. Sometime you have to say “No”. Some times you have to be the adult in the argument. It sucks, but we do it because it is the right thing. It builds our character and our fortitude.

But being a squish sure is easy. If we would just stop rewarding it we may just have a chance.

“Land of the Free and Home of da Whopper” Peter Griffin…Family Guy

conform and celebrate diversity….or else!!!

Steel-Belted Radial Right Winger

“I’ll create 5 million jobs from out of unicorn farts and pixie dust” Justatron paraphrasing Obamessiah…yes I love it that much.

 

I have an idea for Florida...and Republicans

kowalski (Diary) Wednesday, January 21st at 1:38PM EST (link)

I have an idea for Florida and all the other states that are facing budget deficits because of their relentless and heedless policy of expansion:

Cut The Services.

and if you won’t do that, find the inefficiencies in the services, and cut those. I simply cannot and will not believe that the governments of our 50 states are not wasting a significant portion of the money they spend.

One of the things Republicans should be doing during these next four years is really getting involved in investigating the costs of government programs and services in terms of their expenditures, and publicizing them. I’m sure we’ll find a lot of waste, certainly on the order of 10%-30% of the budget, that could be eliminated without drastic service cuts.

 

If a boat is sinking, you try to seal the leak and throw water out

Cheetah772 (Diary) Wednesday, January 21st at 1:42PM EST (link)

The point is, if our economy has just taken a massive hit, in the other words, a sinking boat, if you will. So, our economy is filled with excessive water and a big hole. Thus, it is up to us to seal the hole and throw out excessive water, correct? The hole is credit crunch, and excessive water is a ton of bad programs and unwise spending that’s not needed in the first place.

Therefore, we have to pump up credit somehow, prehaps by buying out all “bad” assets that one day will mature and give us a good ROI. Actually, I really have no idea what’s the best solution, as I’m no economic expert. In addition, federal government will have to cut some programs and reduce some spending in some places in order to throw “excessive water” out of economy.

I only took one course on basic economics as part of general course requirements for graduation. It was only for a semester, and truthfully, I didn’t understand it much until I read Thomas Sowell’s excellent book on explaining basic economics stuff. I do highly recommend buying that for your library….

Daniel 2:20 And he [God] changeth the times and seasons: he removeth kings, and setteth up kings: he giveth wisdom unto the wise, and knowledge to them that know understanding.

 

Who's forgetting basic economics?

Gkyluig Wednesday, January 21st at 2:02PM EST (link)

You’re making a basic mistake, Erick. When prices change, it’s not demand that changes but the QUANTITY demanded. The demand curve is the relationship between prices and quantity, and thus price changes are movements along the curve rather than movement of the demand curve itself. Demand changes, and the demand curve shifts, when the relationship between prices and quantity changes, such as changes in income or in the prices of related goods.

—-
I was born in a welfare state
Ruled by bureaucracy
Controlled by civil servants
And people dressed in grey
Got no privacy, got no liberty
Cos the twentieth century people
Took it all away from me
— The Kinks, “20th Century Man”

 

MD raised cigarette taxes

beaming Wednesday, January 21st at 2:03PM EST (link)

$ 1.00 per pack among a host of other taxes. Tax revenue a year later from cigarette sales was 50% lower.

The MD budget deficit continues to grow. I see waste every day, but complaints fall on deaf ears. The legislature is so happy to see Obama as president.

I have a lot of doubts about the future right now.

Maine is doing the same thing!

From ME to You (Diary) Wednesday, January 21st at 2:29PM EST (link)

The cigarette tax is used to fund various health initiatives. Well the cost of the initiatives has been rising (people love free stuff) and tobacco product sales have been declining with a concurrent drop in tax revenue.

Tobacco sales in Maine have gone down because of 2 reasons!
1) People quit smoking/chewing tobacco
2) They go to neighboring New Hampshire where the taxes are lower and there is no sales tax and buy there.

So to solve the funding shortfall our solons (or should that be morons) are going to raise the excise tax on tobacco products! The result should be….

Photobucket

They are lucky that they can go to a neighboring state and buy tobacco.

janis (Diary) Wednesday, January 21st at 6:26PM EST (link)

In Tennessee last over a year ago, they raised the tobacco tax by another $.60 or more. In order to guarantee that the state got paid, they started making sure you didn’t go to Kentucky and buy more than two packs at a time. They’ve searched cars and confiscated them if they found more than that and you couldn’t prove with a receipt that you bought them in state.

The Maine law allows two cartons...

From ME to You (Diary) Wednesday, January 21st at 6:42PM EST (link)

per person for their own consumption.

The State would have difficulty checking every vehicle because of the manyback roads between Maine and New Hampshire.

It would be even more fun watching them try and check the 20,000 vehicles that enter the state on a summer weekend!

Even non-smokers go to “tax-free” New Hampshire to shop! No sales tax and comparable prices make everything 5% cheaper!

Photobucket
 
 
 
 

You're core assumption is patently wrong...

Lamplighter331 (Diary) Wednesday, January 21st at 2:08PM EST (link)

Saying that politicians “forget” all about basic economics assumes that they understood basic economics in the first place.

“I hope we once again have reminded people that man is not free unless government is limited.”
–Ronald Reagan, Farewell Address–

“People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.”

—George Orwell—

Bullseye!

mikefisk (Diary) Wednesday, January 21st at 2:32PM EST (link)

Spot on. Finishing up my first year of an M.A. in Applied Economics, and it never ceases to boggle the mind just how dense politicians are about basic economic principles.

…or, for that matter, law, which is kinda funny considering most of them used to be lawyers…

“Once within the maw of Leviathan, degree of digestion is irrelevant.” – Michael Fisk

9.25, -4.77

You don't understand the purpose of "the law".

mbecker908 (Diary) Wednesday, January 21st at 5:39PM EST (link)

If you are an elected official or a regulator, “the law” is nothing more than an instrument to give YOU the power to control people’s actions and to guarantee full employment for lawyers who will litigate based on the fuzzy crap you pass.

 
 

Ding ding ding ding ! Give the Lamplighter a good cigar !

Kenny Solomon (Diary) Wednesday, January 21st at 9:19PM EST (link)

Best post ever. ;)

 
 

Using your logic, Erick, levying any tax would defy "basic economics."

CrabCakes (Diary) Wednesday, January 21st at 2:31PM EST (link)

Any time the government imposes a tax, it either decreases the demand for something (labor for income taxes, products for sales taxes) or decreases the supply of something (capital for capital gains taxes). Deadweight loss is an unavoidable feature of taxation and, since taxation is an unavoidable feature of civilization, unavoidable in general.

Given that deadweight loss is unavoidable, however, a government must decide which products will have their demand artificially reduced by taxation. It only makes sense to choose a product that causes harm to both the physical body and the body politic (in increased healthcare costs among others) rather than something like, oh say…baby formula.

In addition, just because demand is reduced as the result of taxation does not mean that demand is reduced by the same percentage as the tax is levied. The numbers you cite in your second block quote clearly demonstrate this. If your numbers are right, the state will take in more revenue with the higher tax on cigarettes than without it, more smokers will stop smoking, and fewer people will begin smoking. Whether the new revenue is enough to close the budget gap depends on the size of the gap and the current percentage population that smoke, but new revenue will be generated nonetheless.

The idea that deadweight loss is an argument against any particular mode of taxation, though, reveals the lack of a grasp of basic economics.

 

Why do they have to stay with good economics

Darin_H (Diary) Wednesday, January 21st at 2:31PM EST (link)

when they can demagogue with 1/4 the effort and maintain “good politics”?

A visionary coward says that anger can be power, as long as there’s a victim on TV – Flat Top, Goo Goo Dolls

 

NJ tried the same thing and collected less taxes.

Old_Crow (Diary) Wednesday, January 21st at 2:44PM EST (link)

So much for the wisdom of Wall Street wizzes as Gov. Corzine found out the hard way.
The key issue is where you stand on the yield curve when increasing taxes. In NJ’s case, taxes were already painfully high, so any increase would result in modified behavior (buying cigs over the internet, driving to DE, or buying unstamped cartons from the back of a van, and perhaps even quitting). The danger when you start playing in the high end of the yield curve is that you can get a huge behavior swing with a only a modest tax increase and end up netting far far less taxes.

“Enlightened statesmen will not always be at the helm.” — James Madison

 

Zero problem?

momac Wednesday, January 21st at 3:56PM EST (link)

“Being no fan of smoking, I’ve got zero problem with that.”

So being a fan is some kind of criteria for taxation? There are plenty of people that are not ‘fans’ of the car I drive or the gas I purchase, maybe I need to reevaluate my hostility toward higher gas taxes. Maybe everything I do that becomes popular should just have ever-increasing taxes on it unless we can find more fans.

Let’s get this pesky Constitution gone and do everything by popularity contest.

 

California has you beat

Thomas_Hauber Wednesday, January 21st at 5:30PM EST (link)

This year is especially worse. With the dems in charge of both houses they would like to raise the sales tax 1.75% which would make California the highest in the nation. Along with a hike in income taxes. God only knows what else they would like to increase. And then in a year or two they wonder themselves why people and businesses are leaving the state.

The only thing holding them back is the fact that budget and tax matters require a 2/3 majority and the dems fall just a bit short of that. Thank goodness we have at least a few Republicans in this state. And I am not counting our RINO governator.

 

A tax increase does not necessarily increase the price equally

baseketball (Diary) Wednesday, January 21st at 8:30PM EST (link)

“While the tax may not be popular among smokers, studies show that for every 10 percent increase in the price of a pack teen smoking drops seven percent and four percent fewer adults pick up the habit. ”

While the price necessarily rises when a $1.00 tax is imposed, it doesn’t necessarily rise by $1.00. Because of the way the (somewhat) free market functions, retailers will compete to increase their price by the smallest amount, a rough estimate is that a $1.00 tax increase will lead to a price increase of about $0.50. My understanding is that a pack of cigarettes costs about $25.00 in Florida, which means the price will only increase by 2%.

While I understand the advantages of arguing the practical effects of conservative economics, I think it’s more important to emphasize the ideological underpinning, which is a respect for personal freedom and a desire to keep the government as far from the peoples’ money as possible. This has the double effect of helping us reclaim the title of the party of personal freedom in the public eye, as well as providing a rock-solid foundation for other arguments about personal freedom we want to make.

The exception

zuiko (Diary) Wednesday, January 21st at 8:56PM EST (link)

This is only because some states have minimum pricing on cigarettes for some bizarre reason… in that kind of scenario there would be some room to absorb the tax before it gets to the consumer on low end smokes. If the market price was already over the minimum (such as on name-brand cigarettes), the entire increase will be passed along to the end consumer.

Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. – Milton Friedman

 
 

how about individual rights? how about

Doc Holliday (Diary) Wednesday, January 21st at 9:03PM EST (link)

opposing forced societal change? If raises taxes on cig is a good thing, why not raise taxes on donuts and pie? Maybe the government could give tax credits to everyone who eats two vegetables a day or calls their mom once a week?

Molon Labe!

 

Taxing on individual rights

JChesney (Diary) Thursday, January 22nd at 1:02AM EST (link)

Amen Doc! Isn’t New York getting ready to institute a tax on sodas because they help cause obesity?

By the way, as a resident of Florida, I have become increasingly disappointed with our weak Governor. And, I am very disappointed that there is talk of him running for Mel Martinez’s senate seat. There was talk that Jeb would run and all of a sudden he says he is not running. Very disappointing, as Jeb was the best governor this state EVER had.

Are there no decent republicans out there anymore?