Noises on the Ground


In Georgia: Saxby Chambliss may be able to get out without a runoff. That’s still not the odds on favorite scenario this afternoon, but he looks to be in a better position. Even if he goes into a runoff, if he is ahead by 7% or more, he is going to win the runoff. If he is 5% of less going into the runoff, Martin will win.

In Minnesota: It looks like Norm Coleman will win re-election today, as will Michelle Bachmann.

In Kentucky: I’m hearing McConnell is probably okay now.

Because of the trends, look for a leadership challenge to Harry Reid beginning tomorrow. Already, Democratic Senators are privately whispering that Harry Reid won’t be able to carry the left-wing’s water and run for re-election at the same time without compromising both.

Nationally: I’m hearing that voter trends across the battleground states are reflected pretty well in the battleground poll. There are shifts toward McCain, but we won’t know if it is enough to put him in the White House until later tonight. Keep your eyes on Pennsylvania. If he wins it, he is President. If he loses it, he probably is not.

In the States: Keep your eye on the state legislative races today for how partisan breakdowns go. Right now there are 15 GOP controlled states, 10 that are split between the parties, and 24 that are controlled by Democrats. Nebraska is a non-partisan legislature. The races today are going to set the stage for the redistricting battles in 2011. The 2010 legislative races, whose incumbents will be set today, will determine if the GOP has a reasonable shot at taking back the U.S. House of Representatives.


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Well Nate(GEEK LOSER)Silver

PaRep (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 3:22PM EST (link)

was just on Fox Report with Sheppy Smith & he looked like he watched his dog get run over by a Bulldozer

 

Interesting about Coleman

Southpaw75 (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 3:26PM EST (link)

While I hope and pray he beats idiot Franken, why is Franken trading at 56+ on Intrade currently?

Now, let's be nice about Silver.

Moe Lane (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 3:26PM EST (link)

He’s got a lot riding on this election; he’s either going to look like a guru or a goat tomorrow.

 
 

PaRep, seriously what is your problem with Silver?

Reaper0Bot0 (formerly Han_Pritcher) (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 3:28PM EST (link)

You’ve mangled him every time I’ve seen you mention the guy.

He’s open about his bias but he’s incredibly transparent with his methodology. He’s got an incredible record in Major League Baseball and he did very well in the primaries.

What’s the problem, exactly?

 

What About The Dog That's Not Barking?

Skanderbeg (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 3:30PM EST (link)

It’s after 3:30pm EST, and still no “leaked exit polls.”

What gives? Leakers not liking what they’re seeing?

 

Uh oh - if Coleman wins...

Bill S (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 3:34PM EST (link)

…Thomas will be back in retirement.

“It’s such a fine line between stupid, and clever.” – David St. Hubbins

 

Take a look at this

LeaOK Tuesday, November 4th at 3:35PM EST (link)

It’s a long article but I would love to hear what people think about it.

http://seanmalstrom.wordpress.com/2008/11/03/toast/

Someone left the link on the Stolen Thunder site.

Leaker's don't like it

Kudzu (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 3:35PM EST (link)

And they don’t want to get it wrong this time around.

It always did take two of you to take down one of me. – Jo Bob Priddy, North Dallas Forty.

Now on at http://kudzu630.wordpress.com/

For the same reason Obama is trading at 90+

Finrod (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 3:35PM EST (link)

intrade is based in Ireland so it’s heavily influenced by the Euroweenie vote.

I was going to buy as many shares of McCain winning the election last night as I could afford, but since they don’t take US credit cards, that nixed that idea. Shame, too, because I was figuring I could have bought 200 shares for less than $200 which would be worth $2000 if McCain wins.

Let’s get down to brass tacks here. How much for the ape?

Very Good Point

DavidSage (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 3:37PM EST (link)

It seems like around this time in 2004 we were hearing that John Kerry was winning in a landslide.

Sorry if you don't think he looks like a geek

PaRep (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 3:37PM EST (link)

Sorry but he does & more to the point it he looked like he just watched a Bulldozer run over his Dog

 
 
 
 
 

Mitch McConnell

Whacker77 Tuesday, November 4th at 3:38PM EST (link)

What does probably ok mean for Mitch McConnell?

 

Well, that would be welcome news.

LibertarianHawk (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 3:46PM EST (link)

My fear of an Obama presidency would be markedly reduced if I could take some solace in knowing there weren’t 60 libs in Congress (since 3 or 4 of them are Republicans).

It’ll still be close, I guess. But I’d breathe easier knowing the Dems couldn’t ram through anything they wanted.

Maybe this is the Reason

PaRep (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 3:47PM EST (link)
 

Well, that would be welcome news.

LibertarianHawk (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 3:48PM EST (link)

My fear of an Obama presidency would be markedly reduced if I could take some solace in knowing there weren’t 60 libs in Congress (since 3 or 4 of them are Republicans).

It’ll still be close, I guess. But I’d breathe easier knowing the Dems couldn’t ram through anything they wanted.

 

NH Vote Is Not Big - Good for McCain

Swamp_Yankee (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 4:19PM EST (link)

No blowout up here. Confirmed. I called NH Republicans all day and we definately got most of our vote out. Everybody that I talked to live had already voted. No idea on PUMAs, moderates or unknowns. But no hisotoric blowout.

  • I think the people of NH had enough of Barry

  • Maybe polls too high. Repubs seem to be working harder. Dems coasting???

  • Black and young voters came out early and enthusiatically, but that pool runs out, whose left.

 

Well, well, well...Colorado may be very tight.

spainishirish (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 4:23PM EST (link)

http://vodkapundit.com/?p=10567 (H/T Stephen Green).

If the exit polls show McCain ahead or close in the western battleground states, look for the MSM to call anything they can in the east as quickly as possible for Obama.

Excellent point.

spainishirish (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 4:27PM EST (link)

Not to SPAM, but I found this interesting (and posted it below): http://vodkapundit.com/?p=10567. If I were near a television and could watch the faces of the MSNBC Obama public relations organization, I would have more of a feel for what they are seeing.

Its a good article

wennejunk (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 4:28PM EST (link)

Moe posted it on the front page earlier

There are only two kinds of people in the end: those who say to God, ‘Thy will be done,’ and those to whom God says, in the end, ‘Thy will be done.’ -C. S. Lewis

 
 
 

McCain is Still Working; Polls Still Open; Call, Drive, Call, Drive

Swamp_Yankee (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 4:33PM EST (link)

McCain on Hannity right now,

He’s still working , so can you. McCain has definately outworked Obama over the last week. My sense in NH is that our base is outworking theirs. McCain has been up here twice recently. MAde a crapload of NH calls today from Massachusetts.

Keep working

 

About NH

Southpaw75 (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 4:49PM EST (link)

Remember how far off the polls were in the Dem primary? Plus, NH loves Mac. I think he takes it!

Wait, The Massive (tm) Obama GOTV

jimmuy8 (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 4:56PM EST (link)

didn’t mobilize all of their minions?

Eisenhower: Uh, yeah, I know I have to win this D-Day thing but, uh, I’m only gonna send half of them to invade–the rest, I’m gonna leave on the ship for if I need them.

What do you mean they got killed before they even got half-way up the beach? Send in the rest!

Couple this with the article Moe posted about just how sad and pathetic the 0 ground game really is and, I like what I’m seeing.

 
 

Minnesota; GO GOPHERS

Swamp_Yankee (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 4:57PM EST (link)

I saw a report somewhere today saying it was close, but thought it was propaganda. The Obama urgency is real. They are organizing a last minute GOTV effort because they are afraid.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/11/minnesota.php

Thanks, Great Article

DavidSage (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 5:01PM EST (link)

I’m not quite as optimistic as the author is about the state of this race, but I do think the polls during this race were absurd, and they were nearly all biased towards Obama because of the party weighting.

Most polls have a +6 to +8 Democrat Party advantage. I think it will much more likely be +2 or worse for Democrats.

I think the vote totals will look more like 2004 than 2006.

E-Mail from Team McCain

jimmuy8 (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 5:09PM EST (link)

Wants me to call ten people in NH.

Hmm. If I send an urgent e-mail on the day of election, why calls to people in a state that all the polls say are going to the other guy.

Doesn’t NH = NM?

60 Libs

reldim (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 5:25PM EST (link)

While there are a few squishies in the GOP caucus, I will note that not one of them voted for cloture on card-check. Mitch could probably hold them together on any effort to pass the Freedom of Choice Act (hopefully helped out by a pro-life push for voters in red states to call their “moderate” Democratic Senators and encourage them to vote no as well).

The folks in question will allow the Democrats to get a lot of things through, but in looking at votes from the 110th Congress, it looks like they will be with us for the very worst of the liberal agenda items. We may not love Norm Coleman or Susan Collins all the time, but we’ve got a better shot with them than without.

 
 
 
 

ACORN factor?

Doug_n_TX Tuesday, November 4th at 5:31PM EST (link)

Let’s not forget all the dead people and ACORN multi-voters. BHO doesn’t need to get that many people to the polls if each of them gets 12 votes each……..

Lost in Texas…………

They aren't going to need 60.

NightTwister (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 5:38PM EST (link)

51 will do. The filibuster rule will not last six months if Obama wins.

The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter. – Winston Churchill

 
 

I care about ACTUAL VOTE TOTALS AFTER ALL ARE COUNTED, not noises

Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 5:43PM EST (link)

Hannity today told people not to pay attention to exit polls that he was going to read.

Elections are decided by actual votes, not talk, and what time we find out is irrelevant.

must we play this childish game?

hell no
not me

Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson

Lunsford loses by 8- 10%

Dukeboy01 (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 5:50PM EST (link)

The last Survey USA poll had McConnell up by 10%. After Lunsford’s “recordergate” foolishness, he’s been dropping like a stone.

I predict Mitch by at least 5%. Probably more.

Government is evil.

It’s a necessary evil, but it is an evil. Any application of government should be done in a somber fashion, as it is a failure of our humanity that we couldn’t handle it as individual citizens. Deciding whether to apply government to solve a problem should be considered on the same level as burning down an orphanage full of children to solve a problem. Deciding to tax should be thought of like deciding to stab an innocent man for our own gain. Anyone who celebrates government is a ghoulish wretch who must be ostracized from polite society.

-Frank J.

Clinging to my religion; CLEANING my guns.

Outstanding Article...Let's hope he's right!

AceInTX (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 6:27PM EST (link)

I’m oddly at peace and I agree with the poster above…the dog that isn’t barking is starting to become deafening!

The “Big Tent” analogy isn’t the correct one…the correct one is a MAGNET…we need to be a MAGNET that draws these independents in who are sick and tired of what’s going on in WashingtonFred Thompson

I can see that...

AceInTX (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 6:32PM EST (link)

The Dems won’t hesitate to pull the trigger on the nuclear option…and there won’t be a gang of 16 to stop it this time!

The “Big Tent” analogy isn’t the correct one…the correct one is a MAGNET…we need to be a MAGNET that draws these independents in who are sick and tired of what’s going on in WashingtonFred Thompson
 
 
 
 

The ULTIMATE American for President, Afro or Otherwise!

Strelnikov (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 6:37PM EST (link)

Let’s just come right out and admit that Republicans blew it by not nominating this man!

http://lighthousepatriotjournal.files.wordpress.com/2007/07/alankeyes-wethepeople.jpg

http://www.2008-presidential-election.net/cn/images/Keyes.jpg

ALAN KEYES!!!!!!!

As of November 4, 2008, the Code Words will be: “Klaatu – Borada – Nikto!”

We'll play without yah and let ya know how things turn out...LOL

AceInTX (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 6:38PM EST (link)

Just kidding!

you’re right….however…the work is going on and we need to keep the troops fired up…I haven’t heard anything negative in this thread and am encouraged by it…

The “Big Tent” analogy isn’t the correct one…the correct one is a MAGNET…we need to be a MAGNET that draws these independents in who are sick and tired of what’s going on in WashingtonFred Thompson

PaRep,

pwest (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 6:39PM EST (link)

Thanks for all the good words, and your steadfastness.

No blowout for Obama; I mean what happened? Oh, nevermind, I forgot about the Space Alien’s endorcement. The polls have surging for McCain since the Alien laid hands on McCain.

Pam

Mike...

Putter (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 7:02PM EST (link)

Cockstradamus promised me a GOP victory. I’m holding you to it. Don’t make me put on the metal spurs…

Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies…

McConnell appears to be safe.

Peacekeeper (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 8:06PM EST (link)

Fox News has already called it for McConnell (thank goodness). Not sure about other places.

Parep, AOL News has just declared PA for Obama.

Rod_Patrick (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 9:02PM EST (link)

I am not believing it.

Is there really a hope, Gandalf? – Pipen of LOTR.

 
 
 
 
 
 

This election doesn't affect reapportionment

R.E. Finch Tuesday, November 4th at 9:48PM EST (link)

Reapportionment is done by the states after each decentennial census is completed, which means that the next re-drawing of district lines will begin in the states in 2011 and will be completed prior to the 2012 elections. It is then that the balance of power in the states will be set for ten years.

The key for conservatism is what happens in the 2010 elections, which depends on how these leftists manage the next two years. That’s why I don’t expect to see anything too radically leftist from the Dems until after the next cycle.

Here’s why we should have hope: If Obama’s administration isn’t nearly flawless, considering the state of things in the nation and the world coupled with the absurdly high expectations The One has set, this pretender messiah may be unable to avoid a mid-term ballot crucifixion in two years.

“This is my case: there ought to be inequality of condition in the world. For without inequality, there is no class; without class, no manners and no beauty; and then a people sink into public and private ugliness.” – Russell Kirk

Everyone is so sloppy with language

Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Tuesday, November 4th at 10:54PM EST (link)

Cockstradamus always put in lawyer-like wiggle words. I may make him a partner in the firm.

Plus, just last week I wrote this

Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson