Last week I sat down with Doug Holtz-Eakin, John McCain’s top economics advisor and talked about the state of the campaign, McCain’s plan for homeowners, etc. We’ve been so busy on the front page, I wanted to hold back on posting this until there was some time so it wouldn’t get buried.
So, in bullet point form, as we went through a number of topics, here’s what Doug has to say:
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On the economy, John McCain understands the need to live within the nation’s and individuals’ means. “He is the only guy promising to balance the budget by controlling spending,” Doug pointed out, contrasted with Obama who wants to raise taxes.
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Somewhat out of order from the way the conversation happened, I asked Doug about Obama’s tax cut and his claim to cut taxes for 95% of working families. He agreed with me that Obama is just trying to undo the 1996 welfare reform law through a backdoor. “How can you give a tax cut to people who don’t pay taxes?” he asked rhetorically. He pointed out that Obama would make a lot of his proposals refundable tax credits, i.e. paying them to everyone, even those who don’t pay taxes. That’d get us back to welfare, but increase the welfare rolls.
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On the homeowner mortgage plan that Senator McCain talked about in the second debate, Doug said the $300 billion price tax is “a heroic estimate.” He admits they aren’t sure of the number, but suspect it might be less than that. He emphasized that the government has a role to play in stopping the decline of property values, which is what the plan would do. in effect, it’d be a re-finance for homeowners, with a credit check and an appraisal. This will no be a plan to stop foreclosing properties.
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Doug was surprisingly blunt on the current economic situation. “Unless we can either get the thing turned around or give people hope that the economy will turn around, we are in a really horrific political environment.” He’s got that right. Again, Doug emphasized, McCain wants to tackle spending as an issue. He doest not want to raise taxes during an economic downturn, something Obama is willing to do.
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Lastly, we talked about ACORN. Doug thinks ACORN needs to be prosecuted. He said he is troubled by all the stories about ACORN engaging in voter fraud. Likewise, we’ve all noticed Obama paying an ACORN front group $800,000.00 to do voter registration. It’s troubling.
Steve Maley
Neil Stevens
Daniel Horowitz
So what are they going to do to
TheAdmiral (Diary) Monday, October 20th at 10:36AM EST (link)get the message out? Obama ads easily outnumbed McCain/RNC ads this weekend in Richmond while watching football. I thought the RNC and the McCain camp were planning this $160M ad blitz for the last two weeks of the campaign? I suppose technically the last two weeks don’t start until tomorrow but frankly I’m not holding much hope. At this point there’s almost too much material on Obama to really get the public to notice.
I honestly think McCain’s whole approach to attacking Obama has been weak….even the way the substantive (meaning non-Ayers, ACORN, Odinga, CAC, etc..) issues have been addressed. It’s obvious McCain is not comfortable going after Obama on his radical associations and contrasting the economic and tax differences has been muddled at best. And now that Obama has illegally raised $150M in September, McCain should be playing ads repeating Obama’s broken promise to only take public financing.
Also, the fact that Obama has no public associations with people who love and want to defend this country is troubling if not frightening. His entire past is littered with associations with communists, marxists, socialists and other radicals bent on the destruction of traditional America. These are serious and troubling issues and McCain has failed to make the case.
His campaign is becoming more Dole-esque as each day passes.
Hit hard. Hit fast. Hit often.
Housing
Jay_Cee Monday, October 20th at 10:40AM EST (link)My beef w/ Mcain and his economic team is that they seem to think that falling house prices are the disease when in fact they are the cure. Listening to the last debate made it sound like he wants to return to the “use-your-house-as-an-ATM” days…The fact is that housing is still overpriced in many parts of the country and the sooner its allowed to correct to normal levels, the better. But yea, the correction is going to be a bit painful.
As far as I know,
ColoKid Monday, October 20th at 10:44AM EST (link)Obama has done nothing more than pay lip service to the idea of balancing the budget. Cut and eliminate wasteful programs, he says. Tax the rich. But His spending plans are so outrageous that any talk of balancing the budget is truly laughable. So, on the balanced budget issue, advantage McCain.
But, as Holtz-Eakin implies, McCain can’t get elected without some plan to “help” people in this economy. Not with Obama promising them the sun and moon. I don’t like the homeowner mortgage plan for several reasons, not the least of which is that it’s a budget buster. But it may be McCain’s best alternative in a bad situation.
Falling house prices
ColoKid Monday, October 20th at 10:51AM EST (link)are both the disease AND the cure. Such are the paradoxes in a free market. As a believer in free markets, I groan every time I hear of McCain’s homeowner mortgage plan. But he has to get elected, and he can’t do it by saying that we have to let housing prices fall to the level acceptable to a free market. Obama will eat his lunch for saying that.
Thank you!
Puritan (Diary) Monday, October 20th at 10:54AM EST (link)That is exactly right. Why would we want to stop the falling housing prices? They are not affordable by most Americans.
But how does he balance it in 4 years
BullwinkleForVP Monday, October 20th at 11:16AM EST (link)As a fiscal conservative, I was disappointed by McCain’s claim in the last debate that he could balance the budget in 4 years while cutting taxes and spending roughly $1Trillion on economic bailout.
Does anybody have a link to a position paper or other indication as to how he’s even going to get close to this? I understand that this is politics and there is a tendency to overstate things, but this seems too far beyond the pale for me.
Standing by you prior post?
blknjconservative (Diary) Monday, October 20th at 11:17AM EST (link)tErick – a couple of weeks ago your “October Surprise” post intrigued me and gave me some hope. Given that a typical campaign narrative from now til election day will only seal an Obama landslide, are you still standing by that post?
not happening
Pentagon16 (Diary) Monday, October 20th at 12:23PM EST (link)I wouldn’t take anything too seriously from the Directors of the same site that displayed a red siren proclaiming “VP Nominee will be Tim Pawlenty” about 10 hours before Palin was named.
Unfortunately there is no magic bullet, no massive GOP ad buy, and no October surprise other than Powell backing Obamessiah. It is just up to the voters at this point.
“Small town folks get bitter after which they cling to guns or religion, or antipathy to people who aren’t like them, or anti-immigrant sentiment”- Barack Carter Obama
I tend to agree
TheAdmiral (Diary) Monday, October 20th at 12:40PM EST (link)Pentagon16. Sure seems late in the game to start with any sort of radical campaign or message change, assuming one even exists. I saw something over at the AoSHQ about a rumored story about the Ayers’ babysitting Michelle’s kids. I guess that helped them, I dunno. Anyway, assuming this is even true and it gets out through Drudge or FNC or talk radio, who’s going to hear it? Just the people whose are going to vote for McCain anyway.
It just doesn’t matter to the average idiot hypnotized by Dear Leader. The MSM will cover for Obama, and Obama will throw Michelle under the bus saying that she hired the babysitters while he was out organizing and agitating. It simply won’t matter and it will have to be something substantially bigger to have any sort of meaningful impact at this point. The race will tighten of course but in my gut I’m preparing for some serious Marxism come January 20. We are witnessing the complete hijacking of this country by the Dems and leftists and Marxists and socialists and there’s seemingly nothing we can do to stop it.
Hit hard. Hit fast. Hit often.
Confused about welfare connection
Fermi Monday, October 20th at 7:53PM EST (link)I am a little confused about this statement. I am a college student who is working to put himself through school. I make less than $20,000/yr yet I still pay 20% in taxes. Every year I get a refund of ~$1000 due to tuition credits, which still leaves me at 17.5% tax rate. I am living just above the poverty line (~$15,000/yrs where I live), but I am more than willing to pay my fair share to keep my community/country strong.
So how can you say “working families” will be getting welfare. Anyone who works even at minimum wage and files at W2 pays at least 15% tax rate. So I am not sure how a tax refund to these people is considered welfare. Who are these theoretical people who don’t pay taxes? I work with many people with kids who make what I make every year and they still pay taxes.
I am a Republican because I believe in a small government which stays out of citizens lives, keeps taxes low and maintains a common sense approach to governance.
Apparently today Repub means fighting against lower taxes. Rail against the tax hikes against small business owners all you want. You DO NOT raise taxes on anyone during a resession, ask Hoover about this kind of plan.
But a tax cut is not the same as welfare. I didn’t hear anyone calling the Bush stimulus tax cuts welfare (they were also tax credits, not refunds). Let’s stay focused on the real issue, the tax hikes.
Looking at my 2007 1040 form
GregInFla (Diary) Monday, October 20th at 10:46PM EST (link)In 2007, your first $5,350 would the standard deduction. Next $3,400 is your exemption as a single person. So your first $8,750 is tax-free. So your income tax, with no other deductions, could be $11,250. Now you should try to put something, even a few hundred, in an IRA now (compounding over time will be very nice long-term). So let’s say your taxable income is around $11,000. There is no way you are in the 20% bracket at $11,000 for income tax. You might want to try turbotax online for free this next year. The tax forms are in the bedroom and wife is asleep, so I won’t look up the tax tables now. My guess is 15% at most on the $11,000.
– A true evolutionist would let endangered species die off. Think about it.
– The sign outside the courthouse said no signs allowed. So I took it down.
– Atlas Shrugged is now on the non-fiction aisle at Amazon.
And yes, those stimulus payments were welfare.
GregInFla (Diary) Monday, October 20th at 10:49PM EST (link)They went to those who paid no taxes. Some seniors who had paid no income taxes had to file a tax form so they could get their “payment”. And another one might be coming, from the news I heard today. Ugh. More funny money in the mail soon.
– A true evolutionist would let endangered species die off. Think about it.
– The sign outside the courthouse said no signs allowed. So I took it down.
– Atlas Shrugged is now on the non-fiction aisle at Amazon.
You need a tax adviser
Bill S (Diary) Monday, October 20th at 11:13PM EST (link)If you look at the tax brackets for both 2007 and 2008, at most your Federal tax rate should be 15% – and that is if all the $20K was taxed at the bracketed rate. You should be entitled to the standard deduction (projected at $5,450 for 2008 tax year) and the personal exemption (projected at $3,500 for 2008), which means the most you will be taxed on is around $11K. Now you WILL have to pay Social Security and Medicare tax on the entire $20K, which is 7.5%….so you’re paying $1500 in SS/Med tax. Take off the deductions & exemptions, then you’ll pay 10% on your first ~$8K and 15% on the amount between $8K and $32,500. If your taxable income is $11K, then you pay 10% of $8K = $800 plus 15% of the rest, which is 15% of $3,000 = $450. So your total tax is $1500 SS + $800 + $450 = $2750, which means your marginal rate is around 13.7% – quite a bit less than 20%…and that’s with no IRA or other credits, etc.
At least that’s how I compute it…
“It’s such a fine line between stupid, and clever.” – David St. Hubbins