and it certainly is a happy note on which to go to sleep. Instead, I’ll probably just keep browsing the net for more rumors and information for a while . . . but I might just come back and read this again before drifting off.

that there’s the slightest chance these people are going to fall off the cliff assures that I will be sleeping like a baby tonight.

Absolutely climb off the ledge. Getting irrational doesn’t help anyone, and the Right can’t afford to start losing people to strokes and cardiac problems.

If they push this garbage through, the lawsuits start immediately, holding it up until the elections in November.

I am thinking, though, that Nancy doesn’t know which way this is going to go, so .. she’s playing bifurcated kabuki…

Mew

First, (Betsy) Markey is D-CO, not D-OH.

And Marcy Kaptur’s OH-09 district is a D+10, not an R+6, district.

But the rest of your analysis is sound.

will vote “no”. Especially if a possible “yes” vote happens to be the deciding one.

I attended a meeting in 1999 when he was presented an award by Lloyd Daugherty of the Tennessee Conservative Union. He is a throwback to the old Southern Democrats-a Dixiecrat-and will not forget his roots.

I faxed a letter to the undecideds today that included the picture below and the following sentiment:

[blockquote]Why would the Senate put themselves through a grueling, time consuming process just to ease your concerns about a bill they were satisfied with?

If you pass the Senate bill in the House, it will go to the President and be signed into law.

The President will declare victory and the Senate will move on to other pressing matters.

You will forever be tied to the Senate bill and you will have no cover.

[b]The Senate does not have to take up your bill. They only need you to believe that they will.[/b]

Why do you have such confidence in the Senate? Do you really trust the Senate that much? How many times do they have to leave you hanging before you recognize when you’re being set up?
[/blockquote]

[img]http://i40.tinypic.com/qnv4fa.jpg[/img]

//

This is a cultural reference that’s easily identifiable to pretty much everyone. People recognize Charlie Brown the dupe and Lucy who suckers him with false promises and empty commitments.

Sound familiar?

–Baird
–Berry
–Kanjorski

Exclusive of those 3, I peg the vote at 213 in favor and 215 against. Pelosi needs all 3. Of those 3, only Kanjorski is running for re-election.

I took Code Red’s list, which shows it at 212-212-7. I read every one of the seven wikipedia bios showing how they fared in their past elections versus the presidential vote, whether they are prolife, and also checked latest news twitters on each of them.

That gave me courage to put 3 of the undecideds in the “against” camp (Dahlkemper, Davis, and McMahon). I was surprised to see McMahon as an undecided, because multiple sources said he already declared “no.” Dahlkemper is very active in Catholic causes, is prolife and progun rights, and her original yes vote was along the lines of Stupak’s original yes vote. Lincoln Davis’s district went for Obama by 29 points, and it appears he is running for re-election, so if he wants to win in November he would have to vote no. If he is willing to commit political suicide, then this obviously is not the case. Pomeroy: there was nothing in what I read that gave me any pause to think that he would vote no. He has no difficulty in getting elected and re-elected every 2 years. There is the whole Bank of ND deal. I think that one is a yes. Although who knows, he could say no and Davis say yes.

So as for the 3 who are truly, imho, “undecided”:
–Baird–every indicator is he is voting no; he already voted no, he told the president he wants to do a “broad rewrite.” Yet he is not running for re-election. So what would it hurt for him to give Nancy his vote if she is one shy right before the gavel? Truly toss-up.
–Berry–already voted YES, and he’s not running for re-election. But he was critical of Obama and is a true blue dog. If only one of these 3 undecideds go with Pelosi, you can bet it’s Berry. Toss up.
–Kanjorski–I’m not sure if he voted yes in November for similar reasons and with similar concerns as Stupak, or if he liked it for other reasons. I didn’t take the time to research that. He is 72 years old; he won in 2008 by only 4 points even though Obama carried his district easily. He has to know the Obama base surge won’t save him in 2010, and that it would be an extremely hard re-election slog for him if he votes for this again. However, he has a history of speaking out loudly against sweetheart deals for other districts and states, so that combined with he doesnt want to kill his re-election chances puts it from “yes” to “truly undecided.”

He’s listed as a potential “Yes to No” flipper and there has been speculation that he is a closet Stupak – bloc member.

Goes without saying how wonderful it would be if we could get just one more “Yes to No” flip, I cautiously submit that might just about seal any hope the Queen B has of getting to 216

But I’ll gladly ensure the 3 stooges have a front row position and would even more gladly give them a push.