For all the complaining about Perry, he has been a good governor. He fumbled the HPV EO and the TTC. But on balance, you probably couldn’t have asked for better.

I am betting that Perry and KBH will duke it out during the primary and Perry will win.

If I were a betting man, I would put everything I own into the pot betting on a Republican winning the Blaine House in 2010, and it won’t be either Snowe or Collins – sorry.

Rick Bennett is the guy who I think will end up emerging from the primary. Young, attractive, articulate, great campaigner, has a national apparatus to raise money, good conservative but just moderate enough to be acceptable to a lot of the centrists who say voted for Obama but voted for Collins too, for example. Dude has a national future if you ask me.

But, even if he doesn’t win, there are other (IMHO, less desirable but still good) choices that could take down the Democrat nominee… Peter Mills is running again, no doubt about it, and he has that same kind of “Snowe” appeal to the moderates of the state…

There’s a bunch of choices, and I honest to god think Maine goes red in the governor’s mansion this time around. Not only because republicans have been out for 14 years (16 by then) and voters are willing to give them a shot… but because unemployment is expected to rise to 8.7% in the state by 2010, and right now Maine has nothing but Democrats everywhere. Two years of that and there will be a huge opportunity to pick up not only the Governor’s mansion, but perhaps retake the state Senate (they only need to swing three seats there to grab it).

The people who just write off Maine and the other New England states as just wishy washy moderate territory where Republicans go to die aren’t very politically astute. Republicans have owned Maine for nearly its entire history – the problems since say 1990 on have been that there is basically no party infrastructure up there. No investment, and its just been written off.

Its ripe for the taking, and I think Bennett will take it.

Rather keep Senate Seat then Gov Mansion in Maine

Texas: Perry will either not run for re-election, or he will lose to K.B. Hutchison in the primary. Either way, I don’t see a scenario where she isn’t the Republican nominee.

Last I heard, Dan Patrick plans to run.

Maine: It would be great if we could get Susan Collins or Olympia Snowe to run home and try for this seat. Because of their immense popularity there, I think they are our only legitimate chances at picking up Maine

Vermont: Barring a screw-up, Douglas holds on.

New Hampshire: I think Lynch will run for re-election. That my be Gregg’s saving grace.

Connecticut: Rell will easily win re-election.

Rhode Island: A liberal Republican like Avedisian is the best we can hope for. For the Democrats, they have several option; Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts, AG Lynch to name a couple.

Massachusetts: Don’t know about Deval Patrick’s popularity, but the best person I see to challenge him is Jane Swift. She’s become very popular in recent years, and I think she could beat him.

Middle Atlantic:

NY: I’ll be stunned if it’s not Patterson vs. Giuliani. Rudy’s the only one, other than Pataki, that could win in a blue state such as New York.

PA: I like former Governor Mark Schweiker for the Republicans. As for the Democrats, I see them picking someone young. But it won’t be an easy fight.

MD: Maybe former Rep. Connie Marella?

South

South Carolina: I like Cong. J. Gresham Barrett for the Republicans, and I can see the Dem. nomination going to a mayor or something.

Georgia: I think it comes down to Cagel (R) and Baker (D)

Florida: Crist will easily win re-election.

Alabama: I think it would be neat to see Richard Shelby run for this seat. The Dem’s will likely pick Folsom.

Texas: Perry will either not run for re-election, or he will lose to K.B. Hutchison in the primary. Either way, I don’t see a scenario where she isn’t the Republican nominee. I bet Chet Edwards runs for the Dem’s.

Tenn: Blackburn, Frist, Thompson. The number of all-star Republicans is huge. I don’t think it even matters who the Dem is; Republians will win regardless.

Kay Barely Republican may opt to run in the primary, and if so, I will be highly motivated to see her defeated!

I’m hoping she (and/or Perry) can be challenged by current state senator (and radio talk show host) Dan Patrick. He won a large margin of victory in a primary in his state senate district, and he has been outspoken in opposing the establishment Republicans that make up most of the legislature.

Patrick is a new Republican who, unlike the others, can fit the “three-legged stool” of conservatism. I believe would be the perfect person to re-energize the party and reach out to people who feel abandoned by it.