Both are within 40 points! If Obama starts funneling money there, McCain will have to spend money to defend them!
But more seriously, the Nevada and New Mexico news is very good. Even the Colorado news isn’t that bad. The only state here that worries me is Arizona, since that’s McCain’s state, not that I think it’ll flip.
are not great compared to other recent polls. Ditto AZ. OTOH, NM and NV are great news. On balance, I’m happy to see these numbers. But really CO is the swing state right now. It’s the tipping state that determines the outcome if the election were today. Hopefully, it moves a little more toward McCain.
Mason-Dixon is a better poll than Quinnipiac, so I will go with the former, and not the latter. That is good news for NM and NV, but not for AZ and CO.
AZ really worries me – we have three potentially competitive House races there, and McCain coattails would be very important. In 1996, in a race he lost by almost ten points, Bob Dole still brought us some coattails in Kansas; I would hate for McCain to do worse in a year in which he is guaranteed to be a stronger candidate than Dole was in 1996.
And I know Mason-Dixon is a decent polling outfit.
But many of these numbers strike me as “off” – I don’t believe McCain is actually ahead in NM, nor do I think he’s up that much in NV, nor do I think he’s down 3 in CO (for once, Quinnipiac looks right on that one!), and I certainly don’t think McCain is up only 6 (and under 50%!!) in AZ (that result is laughable).
I do, however, believe the WY & UT numbers (it wouldn’t surprise me if Obama failed to get over 30% in either state), so at least they got that right!
But the NM, NV & CO results, and esp. the AZ “result”! don’t pass the “smell” test with me.
P.S. dld – you need to work on table formatting for data like this. I’m sure someone has a FAQ diary on how to do those at Redstate…
Folks are missing one small thing about CO – There may be a lot more DNC pre-convention bump there than elsewhere. Yet it’s still margin of error, and Republicans have outperformed polls in the past.
Being ahead in NV and NM is really key. If Obama is locked out there and/or has to put a lot of effort there, the map will look good for McCain.
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Uh oh! Wyoming and Utah are close!
ThreeNineNine Sunday, August 24th at 3:55PM EST (link)Both are within 40 points! If Obama starts funneling money there, McCain will have to spend money to defend them!
But more seriously, the Nevada and New Mexico news is very good. Even the Colorado news isn’t that bad. The only state here that worries me is Arizona, since that’s McCain’s state, not that I think it’ll flip.
CO poll
Brandon (Diary) Sunday, August 24th at 4:32PM EST (link)Quinnipiac has one out today also…
McCain +1 in Colorado, so I think they are fairly tied there.
I think if Romney was the VP, they would win Utah with at least 90% of the vote.
- Brandon
McCain 08
These are good news indeed.
Rod_Patrick (Diary) Sunday, August 24th at 5:00PM EST (link)Brandon’s Quinnipac makes CO a better news. It seems contrary to the general belief.
Something is wrong, then.
CO numbers
Adam C (Diary) Sunday, August 24th at 5:13PM EST (link)are not great compared to other recent polls. Ditto AZ. OTOH, NM and NV are great news. On balance, I’m happy to see these numbers. But really CO is the swing state right now. It’s the tipping state that determines the outcome if the election were today. Hopefully, it moves a little more toward McCain.
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mixed news is right
dingo (Diary) Sunday, August 24th at 5:17PM EST (link)Mason-Dixon is a better poll than Quinnipiac, so I will go with the former, and not the latter. That is good news for NM and NV, but not for AZ and CO.
AZ really worries me – we have three potentially competitive House races there, and McCain coattails would be very important. In 1996, in a race he lost by almost ten points, Bob Dole still brought us some coattails in Kansas; I would hate for McCain to do worse in a year in which he is guaranteed to be a stronger candidate than Dole was in 1996.
Dingo
Mason's Numbers Just Look "Off" To Me
IJB Sunday, August 24th at 5:45PM EST (link)And I know Mason-Dixon is a decent polling outfit.
But many of these numbers strike me as “off” – I don’t believe McCain is actually ahead in NM, nor do I think he’s up that much in NV, nor do I think he’s down 3 in CO (for once, Quinnipiac looks right on that one!), and I certainly don’t think McCain is up only 6 (and under 50%!!) in AZ (that result is laughable).
I do, however, believe the WY & UT numbers (it wouldn’t surprise me if Obama failed to get over 30% in either state), so at least they got that right!
But the NM, NV & CO results, and esp. the AZ “result”! don’t pass the “smell” test with me.
P.S. dld – you need to work on table formatting for data like this. I’m sure someone has a FAQ diary on how to do those at Redstate…
Good poll news overall
Freedoms Truth (Diary) Sunday, August 24th at 6:00PM EST (link)Folks are missing one small thing about CO – There may be a lot more DNC pre-convention bump there than elsewhere. Yet it’s still margin of error, and Republicans have outperformed polls in the past.
Being ahead in NV and NM is really key. If Obama is locked out there and/or has to put a lot of effort there, the map will look good for McCain.
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