The GOP has Don Hooper, Dan Benishek, and Linda Goldthorpe running. Benishek is probably the best shot of those three. Tom Casperson and Kevin Elsenheimer are rumored to be thinking about it. I think Casperson is the best shot to win. It’ll probably take a yooper to win since small town politics dominate up there.

The dems have a large bench up there, since the UP is strongly democrat (although social conservative) on the local level. It’s a bit like the Iron Range of Minnesota, Southern Indiana, or Western Pennsylvania. It’s treading more Republican, but slightly.

Connie Saltonstall is running and was primarying Stupak. She has a slim to none chance of winning, either the primary or general. She’s from Charlevoix, a big money tourist town South of the bridge. State Rep Mike Lahti I expect to run, and he’ll be a very strong candidate, although not nearly as strong as Stupak, who I think would have actually won re-election if he ran again.

It is a traditionally conservative Democratic area which is one of the reasons it has a large Dem bench. I wonder, however, with Stupak spitting on their traditional values and principles, how many voters are going to trust another Dem politician who claims to be conservative.