During last week’s foreign policy debate, Ron Paul won accolades from the crowd when he professed that there are no real pending cuts to the military, just reductions in baseline spending. Here is the full quote:
“Believe me. They’re cutting — they’re nibbling away at baseline budgeting, and its automatic increases. There’s nothing cut against the military. And the people on the Hill are nearly hysterical because they’re not going — the budget isn’t going up as rapidly as they want it to. It’s a road to disaster. We had better wake up.”
This statement is absolutely false. Sequestration will indeed reduce military spending from ‘actual dollar amounts’ of FY 2011 spending levels over the next seven years.
In order to understand defense appropriations, we need to distinguish between the two categories of spending; base budget (ships, planes, weapons, troops) and Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO). Using CBO’s numbers, roughly $703 billion (the DOD Comptroller’s office puts that number at $688 billion) was spent on total defense spending, with $552 billion allocated for base budget (true national defense) and the rest going toward the wars (OCO). When preparing a 10-year budget for defense spending, OCO appropriations are hard to predict because our war spending vacillates with our foreign policy decisions. Only the base budget figures are truly fixed into the budget, just like most domestic non-security expenditures. Consequently, whenever we mention the estimated $1 trillion in defense cuts, remember that they are exclusively incurred by the base budget, aka the military, not the war budget.
So what will the ten-year budget projection of our base defense budget look like after sequestration? Here are the results from the latest CBO report (CBO Testimony, October 26, pages 18-19):
The top line of the chart (highlighted yellow) shows the 10-year extrapolation of FY 2011 base defense appropriations in inflation-adjusted dollars. Note that these numbers do not factor in baseline spending; they factor in merely inflation. Now, scroll down to the fifth row of data (highlighted in red), “if no savings result from Joint Select Committee.” These numbers reflect the projected annual base budget appropriations under sequestration. It is glaringly obvious that defense will incur real dollar cuts, not even accounting for inflation. As we noted last week, under the proposed sequestration, defense spending as far in advance as FY 2018 will be lower than that of FY 2011. If we factor in inflation, defense spending will not reach current levels again until sometime outside of the 10-year budget frame. This is a veritable gutting of our military.
Overall, there will be $882 billion in inflation-adjusted non-baseline cuts to core military spending over ten-years (highlighted green). Even if we fail to account for any inflation – a reckless proposition when budgeting for our primary constitutional responsibility – we will still cut $228 billion over the next seven years. No, Congressman Paul, these are not merely baseline cuts.
So where do Ron Paul and some good conservative/libertarian commentators obtain their data to suggest that defense spending will still rise over the next ten years, albeit at a slower rate (baseline reductions)?
The answer is they are including the war spending (OCO) in their calculation. The CBO is forced to score current policy, irrespective of the likelihood of its implementation. Therefore, they not only assume the continuation of the war over the next ten years, they anticipate increased spending on OCO:
If you include those phantom numbers into the equation, then you can arrive at the conclusion that overall defense spending will not decrease over the next ten years, even after sequestration. However, this baseline is bogus because that money will never be spent. In fact, such projected war spending is so universally disregarded that conservatives (rightfully so) will not count “the war savings” as real cuts. The reality is that we will never spend that money, and as such, the baseline is irrelevant.
Moreover, as we explained earlier, 100% of the cuts will be incurred by the base budget, which supports our entire military infrastructure and weaponry. It is intellectually dishonest to include OCO spending, which will never be spent (and even if it is spent, it won’t be affected by sequestration), into the equation, in an effort to obfuscate the unprecedented cuts to the ‘nuts and bolts’ of the military. After sequestration, our base military spending will decrease to less than 3% of GDP, well below the historical post-WWII average.
Conservatives of all different stripes might disagree over the prudence of some of our military engagements throughout the world. Nevertheless, any conservative who subscribes to Reagan’s three-legged stool model must support the preservation of the military itself. It is the military itself that will suffer real spending reductions, not just baseline reductions.
As we fight to get the budget under control, it is heartwarming to see the public expose the big spenders for their duplicity on phony baseline spending cuts. Nonetheless, it is disingenuous of Ron Paul to abuse this vital distinction by throwing the proposed defense cuts into the mix. Don’t fall for the demagoguery.


Victoria Coates
Daniel Horowitz
I disagree
renl57 Monday, November 28th at 6:51AM EST (link)If this is a consequence of the Supercommittee’s failure, then so be it.
The GOP agreed to that deal. With their affirmative votes, they gave their word they would support it. They shouldn’t welch on it now just because it didn’t turn out the way they wanted.
We didn’t like it when Obama welched on his own deficit reduction panel (Simpson-Bowles) and then acted like it never happened. We don’t like it when Dems pretend to agree to budget cuts and then get those cuts rescinded later.
Let’s not play that game. Sometimes when you give your word on something it still doesn’t turn out as you hoped. But your word was not contingent on an optimal result. You still have to keep your word.
Let’s take our case to the people in 2012 and let them judge what they want to do about defense spending, wars, military posture and all the rest of it.
Maybe Yes - Maybe No
royatblov8 Monday, November 28th at 7:30AM EST (link)A collective majority gave their word which means the congress of the United States as a body. This body has proven over and over again that their WORD means very little!
Republicans over the past couple of decades have been like very attentive understudies to the Democrats, the party that has perfected giving their useless WORD.
However, point taken, the election in 2012 will be the deciding factor which was the case all along possibly by both parties.
It is a sad time, politics has been taken to an extreme level while patriotism and true statesmanship are at an all time low.
It appears that common sense has become politically incorrect!
Visit my site … http://www.blov8.com
The article is all semantics, in any event
sailingaway Monday, November 28th at 11:06AM EST (link)What Ron Paul said was that the cuts just come from future increases. Horowitz blasts him for this, then describes what the cuts come from in his own terms: future increases…..for inflation.
It is in fact future increases and ‘inflation’ is pure projection until it happens and is just automatic increases in all programs, across the board.
So what Ron Paul said was absolutely true under Horowitz’s own analysis, he is just saying ‘that kind of ‘increase’ shouldn’t be looked at as an ‘increase’ in the way he sees things’. However, I see no logic for the specific rate of increase for ‘inflation’.
This is not a meaningless issue, both because he ascribes inaccuracy to someone who was accurate, but merely disagrees with him on assumptions, and because inflation is a product of an unbalanced budget, as the FED prints more money to cover payments, diluting the value of the money. That is what inflation IS. So this automatic raise, even if accurately projected, assumes continuing an unbalanced budget. Why would we want to do that?
Ron Paul’s budget plan cuts a trillion in the first year, and, due to preserving Social Security and Medicare, veterans benefits and indigent accounts (the latter in block grants to the states) doesn’t balance the budget until 3 years out. He would have liked to balance it in one, but understands about dislocation and he views senior entitlements as a contract issue, and, accordingly, a top priority.
But three years out, the budget would be fully balanced and even in year one it would be much closer to balanced than it is now. So with THAT scenario there is no justification for presuming an increase for inflation, at all.
Paul's budget plan
Daniel Horowitz (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 11:20AM EST (link)on entitlements and closing government departments is great. But regarding defense spending, much of the cuts are not just baseline cuts, they are real dollar cuts. Is the CBO graph not visible?
I'm talking about the super committee fallback
sailingaway Monday, November 28th at 5:38PM EST (link)regarding baseline, and’inflation adjustment’ is an increase.
I've been around a long time and never have I experinced congress giving their word on anything.
ihateliberals Tuesday, November 29th at 7:22AM EST (link)Just saying they will do something is giving their word. Politicians don’t make promises they make statements. They say things you want to hear but then do thngs the way they want to.
Oh I disagree!
rcastonjr Tuesday, November 29th at 10:20AM EST (link)Congress is great at “giving their word”. However, they never ‘KEEP their word.”
Cutting defense is not the problem
dapala Monday, November 28th at 7:26AM EST (link)The problem is that the cuts are not across the board. What should happen is a 25-30% spending cut to ALL programs and then a freeze on that amont for a few years. If we did this and also dealt with entitlements, the budget problem and deficit would be largely solved.
When you consider that govt spending has increased by20-30% just since Obama took office, going back to a 2008 spending level doesn’t sound like armageddon to me.
As for defense, having been in the service for 24 years now, I can tell you that DOD wastes an incredible amount of money. The reason for this is simple. The Pentagon has really not had to live within its means since 2001. With supplemental funding and the war budgets they always claim that if you cut their budget- the Joe in Afghanistan will not have any food or bullets so they always get at least 2 rounds of funidng per year- the regular budget and a supplemental for the wars.
No sacred cows- 30% across the board cut and then a freeze for 5 years, then no increase beyond inflation. Problem solved!
Cut first, talk later.
quad4x4 Tuesday, November 29th at 7:15PM EST (link)First a liberal will lie, cheat and steal to get anything they want.
So Just be first to cut the Defense Department Staffing budget now by closing overseas bases in Korea, Germany, Japan, Philipines, and 80 to 100 out of 150 bases of operational other places we operate outside the USA or at least reduce staffing to minimum safe level or else take them all out. If some country wants us to stay, pay us at cost plus overhead in cash or gold. The only exception would be for embasy protection and support. And don’t forget all those sacred cow military bases inside the USA, that congressmen and senators have kept open by hook or crook. scrap ww2 supply ships in harbors in mothball status, never will be used. Sell off surplus land to highest bidders, funds to debt reduction. The need is for a strong red pencil to all budget items, defense is just one…
Look hard at Nevada bases that were made for WW2… Ports we don’t use for military, and on and on…Then discuss the remainder of all funds for Defense.
We need a viable team with the best weapons made in secret and kept secret. Staffed by a strong volunteer force.
Cutting defense is not the problem
dapala Monday, November 28th at 7:28AM EST (link)The problem is that the cuts are not across the board. What should happen is a 25-30% spending cut to ALL programs and then a freeze on that amont for a few years. If we did this and also dealt with entitlements, the budget problem and deficit would be largely solved.
When you consider that govt spending has increased by20-30% just since Obama took office, going back to a 2008 spending level doesn’t sound like armageddon to me.
As for defense, having been in the service for 24 years now, I can tell you that DOD wastes an incredible amount of money. The reason for this is simple. The Pentagon has really not had to live within its means since 2001. With supplemental funding and the war budgets they always claim that if you cut their budget- the Joe in Afghanistan will not have any food or bullets so they always get at least 2 rounds of funding per year- the regular budget and a supplemental for the wars.
No sacred cows- 30% across the board cut and then a freeze for 5 years, then no increase beyond inflation. Problem solved!
Planning on Giving Back?
edintexas Monday, November 28th at 12:26PM EST (link)If you have 24 years in, you are obviously eligible for retirement, which comes out of that DoD budget. Are you planning on cutting your retired pay by 25 to 30%? If you are still active (the sentence construction makes it appear that way), would you be willing to be shot at for 25 to 30% less salary than you now receive?
You and I both know that the days of young troops laying it all on the line for less than a pittance are gone. The troops today aren’t getting rich, but today’s young troops will not volunteer for the sort of financial treatment I had as a young troop (RVN 1 to 8/66, E4 over 2, $204.90 per month plus $10.00 “combat pay”, small pay increase in July.)
Draftees
gogogodzilla Monday, November 28th at 4:39PM EST (link)Maybe you’ve never noticed, but draftees worldwide tend to be paid very poorly, as they *cannot* refuse to serve.
Today, we have a volunteer military, which means they don’t have to serve if the pay isn’t enough for them.
Do you want to go back to a draftee military?
Live free or die!
I Think
edintexas Tuesday, November 29th at 7:41AM EST (link)I think you have misread what I wrote. Apparently this didn’t make the point for you:
“You and I both know that the days of young troops laying it all on the line for less than a pittance are gone. The troops today aren’t getting rich, but today’s young troops will not volunteer for the sort of financial treatment I had as a young troop…”.
So how else could I have made the point that the draft Army is long gone and the volunteers will not enlist without a decent wage?
Paul is basically correct
economics102 Monday, November 28th at 7:37AM EST (link)From reading a little bit about the BCA:
Sequestration would result in $445 billion in defense cuts over 10 years.
The current defense base budget is $552 billion. If we were to freeze the budget, that would mean $5.52 trillion over 10 years.
The baseline projection, which as you noted is supposed to be to account for inflation, is $6.256 trillion over 10 years.
So, we’re talking about cutting $445 billion from a $736 billion baseline increase. That’s still a net increase of $291 billion over 10 years.
While it’s true that the 2012 -2014 budgets would drop by a few billion below the 2011 budget and that is technically a “cut” to those years, the line of negative numbers in the chart is misleading. If you were to show the net difference between each year’s proportional-cut adjusted budget and a budget frozen at 2011 levels, it would look like this:
2012 -24
2013 -14
2014 -2
2015 +8
2016 +19
2017 +32
2018 +45
2019 +58
2020 +71
2021 +85
As you can see, the cuts are smaller than the OP’s Horowitz’s chart shows, and in 2014 it reaches equilibrium and 2021 reverts to increasingly larger budget INCREASES.
So yes, 2012-2014 the defense budget would be cut somewhat. But, say it’s for inflation or whatever else you want, but measured in $$$ the budget is still increasing by at least $291 billion, no real cuts in sight.
Also I don’t know where Perry and others get off talking about $1 trillion in defense cuts. With sequestration the cuts would be $442 billion is my understanding.
Slight correction
economics102 Monday, November 28th at 7:40AM EST (link)I meant to say the budget reverts to budget increases starting in 2015, not 2021.
882 billion in inflation adjusted cuts...
nathanalbright (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 7:51AM EST (link)…is pretty close to 1 trillion. Try again.
Obviously
Daniel Horowitz (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 8:05AM EST (link)you have not read the article or you have gotten your data from a a source other than the CBO.
One more time: under sequestration will not reach equilibrium with FY 2011levels until 2019. Even then, when adjusted for inflation, we will not reach those levels. And again, these cuts are coming out of the military, not out of war spending. If this were some other expenditure, such as a welfare program, I’d support such a measure (even more). However, for our military, which has already incurred cuts in 2011, this is way too steep.
The total $1.1 trillion number does include some baseline cuts. Buts as noted above, $882 billion of those cuts are real cuts accounting for inflation, $228 billion no accounting for inflation. With our military infrastructure aging, I don’t understand how any national defense conservative can defend that.
The row of numbers in red specifically includes the phrase "adjusted for inflation"
JSobieski (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 8:11AM EST (link)The fact that it is damn hard to just get non-adjusted numbers is a big part of the problem
My rules of the road for primary season.
Rule #1: Vote for YOUR first choice in the primaries
Rule #2: Vote for the R in the general.
Rule #3: Don’t let anyone convince you to violate Rule #1 or Rule #2
Rule #4: When in a center-right argument, reaffirm Rules #1-#3–it will help us all to get along better.
Rule #5: If you are using the language of the left, you probably aren’t furthering conservativism
Rule #6: The priority is issues first, candidates second, and supporters third. Nobody is bigger than the issues. Conversely, if you spend your time focusing on supporters, you are wasting everyone’s time.
STOP THE MADNESS!
A reduction in the rate of spending increases is NOT a cut!
In-state tuition for illegals is NOT amnesty!
Requiring someone to pay their medical bills is NOT an individual mandate!
Reducing tax rates is NOT a tax increase!
I take it back---there are real and even extreme cuts in 2013 and 2014
JSobieski (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 8:17AM EST (link)and then steady increases after that.
Interesting that the cuts are relatively front-loaded into 2013 and 2014, which is contrary to what one generally expects with spending reductions.
Thanks Dan for bringing out the actual numbers.
My rules of the road for primary season.
Rule #1: Vote for YOUR first choice in the primaries
Rule #2: Vote for the R in the general.
Rule #3: Don’t let anyone convince you to violate Rule #1 or Rule #2
Rule #4: When in a center-right argument, reaffirm Rules #1-#3–it will help us all to get along better.
Rule #5: If you are using the language of the left, you probably aren’t furthering conservativism
Rule #6: The priority is issues first, candidates second, and supporters third. Nobody is bigger than the issues. Conversely, if you spend your time focusing on supporters, you are wasting everyone’s time.
STOP THE MADNESS!
A reduction in the rate of spending increases is NOT a cut!
In-state tuition for illegals is NOT amnesty!
Requiring someone to pay their medical bills is NOT an individual mandate!
Reducing tax rates is NOT a tax increase!
I stand corrected
economics102 Monday, November 28th at 8:47AM EST (link)You’re right, I was looking at the wrong row.
wait a minute...
sanitycheck Monday, November 28th at 10:09AM EST (link)This article is misleading. You can hardly see it in the reproduced graph, but there is a footnote “d” next to the name of the row the author has highlighted in red. The last two lines of footnote “d” read, “The caps for 2012 set in the Budget Control Act would not be affected by the automatic enforcement procedures. Because no adjustment to the caps for 2012 would be made if the automatic enforcement procedures take effect, CBO has assumed that the reductions in 2012 would be proportional.”
Assumed? Assumed???
I’m sorry, but “assuming” a reduction is not a reduction. It’s merely a fantasy.
Further, it doesn’t really matter what is projected beyond 2012, because Congress never holds itself to projections it made (or which were made on its behalf) in the past. The CBO has a long history of inaccuracy when it comes to projections of future spending, and the main reason for the inaccuracy is Congress itself. Congress has no problem ignoring such promised “reductions” in future years.
So, Paul is essentially right, and this CBO table does not contradict him using actual budget cuts. It merely uses “assumed” reductions, and additionally any future reductions claimed in the table are meaningless.
Besides, even if we “assumed” that the numbers in the table are accurate: why are you getting so excited about a $14 billion cut year-over-year compared to 2011? Even if it proves to be accurate (and we have no way at this point to show it IS accurate), $14 billion is a drop in the bucket compared to a $1.2 trillion shortfall for 2012.
sanitycheck
Daniel Horowitz (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 10:15AM EST (link)Nobody disputes those numbers. For a while, it was unclear what would happen if the super committee achieved part of their target from non-defense discretionary spending or mandatory spending. It wasn’t clear how that would affect defense spending for the rest of the cuts. However, now that the committee got nothing, and sequestration will kick in the full $1.2 trillion, the law is clear that defense will share 50% of the additional cuts. So those total numbers for defense budget authority are pretty clear at this point.
and looking backward...
sanitycheck Monday, November 28th at 12:16PM EST (link)FY2010′s number was $533 billion. FY2009′s number was $515 billion. And that number was about 74% higher than 2001′s number, when George W. Bush first took office. In other words, when Bush first took office, the base military budget was just under $300 billion.
So please don’t give us the sad song and dance about how Ron Paul is wrong because there was a tiny budget cut. Instead, please give us a break!
Looks like a reduction in the rate of increase over a 10 year period to me
JSobieski (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 8:09AM EST (link)We can’t use the “no real cuts” line with everything but the expenditures we agree with.
It ain’t a “real” cut unless the spending actually goes down—an amount lower than a freeze.
The only reason there is actual cutting in 2013 is because nothing happens in 2012.
% of GDP is not the proper metric of a “real” cut.
Spending cuts, tax increases, and amnesty—three phrases that appear to be almost infinitely flexible in the context of politics.
My rules of the road for primary season.
Rule #1: Vote for YOUR first choice in the primaries
Rule #2: Vote for the R in the general.
Rule #3: Don’t let anyone convince you to violate Rule #1 or Rule #2
Rule #4: When in a center-right argument, reaffirm Rules #1-#3–it will help us all to get along better.
Rule #5: If you are using the language of the left, you probably aren’t furthering conservativism
Rule #6: The priority is issues first, candidates second, and supporters third. Nobody is bigger than the issues. Conversely, if you spend your time focusing on supporters, you are wasting everyone’s time.
STOP THE MADNESS!
A reduction in the rate of spending increases is NOT a cut!
In-state tuition for illegals is NOT amnesty!
Requiring someone to pay their medical bills is NOT an individual mandate!
Reducing tax rates is NOT a tax increase!
Real Cuts
Daniel Horowitz (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 8:25AM EST (link)I’m not sure how much of the military you want to cut. I’m not using percentage of GDP or total federal budget to prove that they are real cuts. I’m using them to show how after those cuts we will be spending the least on the military relative to GDP.
This is not the way of Reagan. I’m all for finding a way to wind down the wars, but we can’t freeze military spending when so many of our planes and ships are aging. If the only saving grace is that at the end of the 10-year budget frame spending will slightly increase in non-inflation adjusted dollars, then I guess we’ll just have to disagree on semantics. That is a real dollar cut, no matter how you slice it.
Spending cuts
devereaux Monday, November 28th at 9:14AM EST (link)Bring the troops home from Europe, Korea, and Japan. That would be a good place to start. There is more than enough fat to cut in defense spending.
The biggest national security threat we face is our debt. We won’t be able to project power anywhere in the world if our economy collapses.
Ron Paul is 100% correct
noztnac Monday, November 28th at 9:48AM EST (link)Having troops in 130+ countries around the globe makes us weaker. Our economy cannot support it. It makes our thinly stretched military targets. It also makes us generally despised throughout the world. We would do best to follow a non interventionist policy as advocated by Thomas Jefferson. Free trade with all and NO entangling alliances. We should immediately withdraw troops from Germany, Japan, South Korea, Australia (Obama just committed 2,500), Iraq, Afghanistan, and everywhere else around the world we shouldn’t be sticking our noses. It’s high time we concentrated military spending on the defense of OUR nation. Let those troops spend their paychecks bolstering OUR economy.
And by the way, I speak for most Ron Paul supporters when I say, if Republicans nominate a neocon war monger who is NOT fiscally conservative (eg Romney, Cain, Perry, Gingrich) Some of these aren’t even social conservatives by the way (Romney, Cain, Perry all are questionable on abortion)— Ron Paul supporters will NOT support the GOP candidate. Given that they be agreeing with Obama on FISA, the Patriot act, war mongering, nation building, BIG wasteful bloated government- It would make absolutely zero sense for us to support such a nominee.
So here’s the deal- Support Ron Paul or get Obama.
The GOP has treated Ron Paul and his supporters like trash. We owe the GOP nothing! We don’t blindly follow political parties whose only intention is compromising our conservative values to maintain power. We are for liberty, sound money, small government, free trade with all, and PEACE! It’s time to cut spending across the board, DRASTICALLY reduce the size and scope of the federal government and to stop policing the world.
My allegiance is not with the political parties but with the values of our constitution’s framers. The GOP can either get in line with those values or step aside. Gut check time for the GOP!
We need a cleanup on aisle five...
nathanalbright (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 9:57AM EST (link)We’ve got a Paultard here making false dilemmas (Obama or Ron Paul) and saying than Ron Paul is 100%. It looks like some village is missing its idiot and we need to find out which one it is.
to nathanalbright
noztnac Monday, November 28th at 10:07AM EST (link)If you want to debate any of the points I have made I am prepared to educate you. You’ll get no points though for ad hominems. I consider your feeble attempt to sidestep discussion to be cowardly. Bring it on!
30 MILLION DOLLARS AN HOUR
noztnac Monday, November 28th at 10:04AM EST (link)We are currently spending 30 million dollars an hour, 24 hours a day on war!
And we are borrowing money from China and debasing the value of the dollar by printing more money in order to do it. This is simply outrageous. The biggest threat to our nation is our wasteful spending. We borrow money from China to blow up bridges in Iraq and then to rebuild them for a people who don’t even appreciate the sacrifices our soldiers have made on their behalf. Just this week a woman who was raped in Afghanistan was sentenced to prison and forced to marry her rapist. THAT is the nation we have built with your tax dollars… no wait… your children’s and grandchildren’s tax dollars. Your current share of the debt is $48, 288.20 and it is rising daily.
The GOP has a candidate who is honest and who will do what is needed to right this ship. But many on the right are too invested in having supported failed past policies of nation building and militarism abroad. They are willing to pass over the one guy who will CUT 1 trillion in spending in his first year just to avoid having to admit that they may have been wrong on a few things.
Are those people on the right SO committed to those policies that they are willing to let Obama remain in power another 4 years?!
Only Ron Paul can defeat Obama and he’ll do it by pulling in disaffected, disgruntled progressives and liberals who are disappointed with Obama for his civil liberties failures and for his war mongering.
Nominate Romney, Perry, Cain, or Gingrich and I will write in Ron Paul. You do the math.
Steve Maley (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 10:11AM EST (link)1. Paulbot
2. Advocating RP write-in over the legitimate Repub nominee.
Gee, that was fun!
The blogger formerly known as ‘Vladimir’.
Let me augment Steve's comment here
Bill S (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 10:17AM EST (link)We do still have a Paulbot rule in force.
Remember this, from 2007? Well, it never went away. We still ban Paulbots who don’t have an established, productive commenting history at RS.
Life really is not fair, Ronulans…
“It’s such a fine line between stupid, and clever.” – David St. Hubbins
What makes you think
aesthete (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 12:41PM EST (link)that progressives care about civil liberties or warmongering?
The act of defending any of the cardinal virtues has today all the exhilaration of a vice – G.K. Chesterton
Thomas Jefferson was an anti-trade proto-Marxist
Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 10:11AM EST (link)Typical for backers of the Communist shill Paul to be in love with the interventionist, embargo-loving Thomas Jefferson.
RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules
Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.
“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder
1 trillion
gogogodzilla Monday, November 28th at 4:49PM EST (link)There were $400 billion in defense cuts back when the ‘grand bargain’ was struck to create the supercommittee. Couple that with the upcoming $600 billion and that equals $1 trillion cut off the defense budget over ten years.
If you want to cut defense, you really need to look first at cutting the defense mission. For every mission you eliminate or reduce is a mission you don’t have to pay for.
Pull out of Korea and you don’t have to pay for our defense of Korea.
It’s pretty simple, but what I see is that we want to have our cake and eat it, too. In other words, we want the best military with the best equipment involved in every hotspot… but are now balking at the price tag.
Libya was a great example of how we wanted our military to lead the charge, but then also said that we shouldn’t be there…
Live free or die!
$100 billion a year in annual cuts against the *baseline*(which is a high percentage today)
wonkish1 (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 5:27PM EST (link)Is puny. Its peanuts because most of it shows up in future ‘reductions’ from current trajectory(so it manifests itself in a few billion in year one cuts and then the it continues its inflation adjusted growth from there).
If we don’t get our fiscal picture under control how would you like $200 billion in first year cuts(not a few billion) and watch as a quarter of the budget disappears instead of a fraction of a percent.
I’m hoping the RedStaters aren’t the type of people that fall for cuts against the current baseline trajectory as actual cuts because we have a very tough road ahead if people do.
Its time to get real and tell the bureaucrats at the Pentagon that they can whine, squeel, and lie all they want to, but they are acting just as bad as Dems complaining about the poor student school lunch budget being cut when they weren’t even using all of the budget.
“First you win the argument, then you win the vote.” Margaret Thatcher
Conservative Innovations I Want To See Succeed
http://rightnetwork.com/ –New conservative TV network
http://actright.com/ –Fundraising hub for all things conservative
http://connect.freedomworks.org/ — Connecting Tea Partiers around the country
http://procinct.net/ –GOTV walk/call lists
http://www.citizensunited.org/ –Their documentary arm
Without
rcastonjr Tuesday, November 29th at 10:32AM EST (link)a declaration of war and approval of Congress you are right, we should not have been in Libya.
Erick Erickson agrees with Ron Paul on this issue
loemane Monday, November 28th at 1:08PM EST (link)Apparently, Erick Erickson agrees with Ron Paul on this defense spending issue: “Ron Paul… actually shows he knows more about the budget than Romney on this point.”
http://twitter.com/#!/EWErickson/status/139161543274278912
Also apparently, Rush Limbaugh agrees with Paul on this issue, too: http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2011/11/21/there_will_be_no_spending_cuts_even_with_sequestration_spending_will_go_up_16
G'bye
Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 1:43PM EST (link)I’m hurt. Truly, you wound me to the core, good sir profg.
Here I’m the one who banned you. I’m the one who signed my name to tossing you from the site for trying to defeat Scott Brown, the man who forced the Dems to forego passing a budget and instead ram through a public option-free Obamacare through reconciliation.
You pathetically shill for your unlovable libertarian losers, the people who have never accomplished anything in their political lives except to shill for the most murderous totalitarian regimes around. Yes, Ron Paul is the biggest advocate in America for the world’s most oppressive, rights-quashing dictators.
So, shoo. I won’t let you stay if you won’t even credit me for tossing you, and instead give MOE the pleasure of being mocked with your username, even if his name does become a Chinese fast food dish more easily.
I’d go feel sad, but Scott Brown is still in the Senate, and Ron Paul is still a political failure who’s bilking his followers of cash in his shameless gold schemes. Plus, I still have a working RedState account, and you don’t.
So no, while you did disappoint me, I smile yet.
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well put neil
mikeymike143 (Diary) Tuesday, November 29th at 11:22AM EST (link)ron paul is an unelectable loon. and his cult followers are leftists with bad hygiene who are more likely to be living in their parents basement and spamming presidential internet polls that doing anything of value for the republican party.
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David, please explain ...
skorrent1 (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 1:52PM EST (link)What “adjusted for inflation” means to you. An historical chart that claims “constant dollars” or “adjusted for inflation” means that all numbers have been quoted to show changes in absolute value over time. That would seem to imply that the yellow bar shows an absolute increase in value scheduled for baseline defence of about 25% by 2021. If there is an accumulated inflation of 20% by 2021, then the number of dollars scheduled for defence in the year 2021 would be 840B; all numbers in the 2021 column would be multiplied by 1.2.
On the other hand, if the CBO made some unspecified assumptions about inflation and posted supposed “current dollars” in a ten-year projection, then the chart is even less meaningful than usual.
Wow What An Absolutely Wretched Analysis
wonkish1 (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 3:33PM EST (link)No offense.
I’m personally for a strong military, but I’m not going to allow that to trump my own ability to be honest and fair.
First of all, your forced into using inflation adjusted dollars because you would be laughed out of the room with the two years of cuts in the budget. You then utilized an inflation baseline number of future spending to produce your negatives(the yellow column) and then claimed it was bad in non inflation adjusted dollars, too(no its not).
Then to make your post the most unbelievably pathetic post of the week you quote the **accumulated** number over **20 years off** of the inflation baseline(yellow column) for your total cuts. Instead all the federal government is doing is cutting a few billion in year 1 and restarting the growth of that number. And within a few years growth in appropriation is back at inflation adjusted numbers.
To accumulate the numbers like you did would be like me saying that I’m going to freeze my personal spending for a few years and then continue to grow it afterward, and book that as cuts against me not doing so over a very, very long period of time.
And analysis’s like this are part of the problem. If we can’t be honest about what a really small cut is today then I don’t know how we are ever going to fix our debt problems. If a Dem produced an analysis like this over one of their programs I would be calling them a liar, an idiot, and a demagogue.
And even if I were to accept your bull$hit analysis(which I don’t) the idea that a 6% reduction in the annual defense budget is crippling is laughable on its face. Right now you have a group of people that are crying like little babies over meager cuts and acting like its going destroy the military when *at least* 94% of their budget is in tact.
What a joke!
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You Want To Know What Will Cripple The Military
wonkish1 (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 3:41PM EST (link)Try the credit markets demanding a huge interest premium for the ability to rollover the countries debt. Then you’ll see real problems to howl over. And we are on track for that to happen in the not to distant future.
Stop your whining and get with reality. There are no sacred cows when your debt servicing is skyrocketing and there shouldn’t be today as we sit at this cliff. You want to point out that entitlements unfairly got excluded and I’ll be the first to join you. But the notion that a few measly cuts in the military budget is a bridge to far is beyond pathetic.
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What
Daniel Horowitz (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 6:07PM EST (link)part of this are you incapable of understanding? Part of what we criticize alleged cuts to other programs is that they never actually reduce spending levels from one year to the subsequent year. In the case of the military, spending will be cut in actual non-inflation adjusted dollars and will not rise above that level until 2019.
According to your rationale, if you cut something from 500 billion to 100 billion, and proceeded to raise the levels an additional 2 billion a year over 300 hundred years, you would call it a mere baseline cut because, after the first year, spending “rises” again.
What you are calling baseline budgeting is incorrect. And it is not just because we are partial to defense. If someone would come out with a budget to cut actual dollar spending on food stamps, and not reach equilibrium until the end of the 10-year budget frame, I would not dismiss that as a baseline cut. I might say that it is an insufficient cut, given that the entire program is unconstitutional; nonetheless, it is a real cut. Being that national defense is one of the few constitutional functions of government, we should not reduce funding for our aging fleet. This was not how Reagan defeated our enemies.
Dan, Look Just Because You Don't Realize
wonkish1 (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 6:26PM EST (link)Your booking cuts by accumulation against an inflation adjusted baseline instead of the existing baseline doesn’t mean I’m the one that doesn’t understand things. And your wrong. They are taking a few billion dollar cut in the year 1 and rising beyond that initial level a few years later. I get this might be confusing, but it isn’t rocket science and if this was a Democrat doing this with the Department of Education for example I would be b*tching them out right now.
No I wouldn’t call it a mere baseline cut. And clearly you don’t understand my post then. In this example I would call the $400 billion(80%) a static cut in year 1 and assuming they continued to grow after that date by at least inflation then there wouldn’t be any more cuts in subsequent years. Under your rationale a few billion dollar cut today means that you have cut trillions of dollars in a few decades because you’ve altered the trajectory. That is Bull$hit am I’m calling you out on it.
All you did was change the baseline to inflation number and book the accumulation against it. Its dog crap. The real cut is a fraction of 1 percent in year one, practically a freeze in year 2, and a new growth line after that.
A real cut took place in the military budget, but its a ton less than you’re making it out to be. Its only a few billion followed by a similar growth line afterward.
I don’t believe that a less than 1 percent reduction in first year expenditures is going to destroy our military. Its people that don’t ever want to see any cuts in military that are peddling that crap to scare people. The math just doesn’t add up at all to what they are saying.
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Again
Daniel Horowitz (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 6:36PM EST (link)Without resorting to ad-hominem attacks, I made it very clear and transparent that the $882 billion figure is factoring inflation, but not the traditional baseline, while $228 billion are real cuts. I can understand why you wouldn’t at least consider the $228 billion real cuts. I make that number very clear. My point is that it is not *just* a baseline cut. The cuts are severe enough that they include real reductions. That is a fact, and all of your name calling cannot change the reality.
Democrats are not coming put with budget proposals for welfare programs that reflect this sort of budgeting. What we are calling them out for is when they limit the growth of a program is every subsequent year down from a certain percentage.
Dan, No!!
wonkish1 (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 7:03PM EST (link)Your baselining the cuts based on a current inflation trajectory. Do you understand what that means? That means that you have two lines. The first is a line that you have created based on inflation adjusted from our current number. The second line is the point at which defense budget growth returns to at least inflation(that is a few years out). You are booking the nominal difference between those two lines in perpetuity. Screw that!!! NO! That is a gimmick and its bull$hit!
I’ll tell you what the real cuts are **inflation adjusted** using the numbers you posted:
It appears you are using a ~1.81% inflation rate.
In year 1: $24 billion inflation adjusted cut.
In year 2: $538*1.0181=$547.68- $541= **$6.68 billion** inflation adjusted cut
In year 3: $541*1.0181=$550.79 – $550=**$.79 billion** inflation adjusted cut
In year 4: $550*1.081=$560 – $560 = $0 billion inflation adjusted cut.
Real cuts are $24 billion + $6.68 billion + $.79 billion = $31.47 billion.
I’m not going to let you take the trajectory difference in perpetuity its sly move befitting a dip$hit liberal not a smart conservative.
Yeah but what is shared between both you and them is that both of you actually think its okay to book all trajectory differences as cuts. That is crap. Granted it would be a very, very slight improvement for the Dems to start budgeting the way you just did, but its still a very crappy way of doing it and it would make sure we never got our fiscal house in order.
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Only In Washington Does $1 trillion In Cuts Against The Baseline Over 10 Years = ~$30 billion In Real Cuts Over The Next Few Years
wonkish1 (Diary) Monday, November 28th at 7:34PM EST (link)And the fact that you would be willing to agree to use a trajectory basis in your analysis only shows that your just as bad as they are.
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INTERESTING
fatlibertarian Tuesday, November 29th at 1:29AM EST (link)And Ron did say “nibbling” away at baseline increases.. When Ron Paul says REAL CUTS, he means substantial cuts. But this is why I wish, during the debate, him and Romney could have finished the discussion. We should have debates without moderators. Record them and don’t show them live, then let networks air it how they wish. Get out of the way of the candidates – the fakes will mess up without time and rules. I think this is a good discussion to have but this new media obsession with “were the candidates honest” is so open to bias. CNN has this stupid meter.. lol
Wartime trust questioned
hitthedeck Tuesday, November 29th at 6:58AM EST (link)I don’t know if I could trust Ron Paul if he was elected Commander in chief of the armed forces in a wartime setting. He has a viewpoint on the security of the United States that thinks our military budget should be cut in half. The world is sitting on a powder keg with Iran and now this Pakistan situation this week. Dr. Paul cannot believe that decreasing the strength of our military will still look strong in the eyes of our enemies. A country that is prepared for war is a nation that will never loose a war. With the weapons and technology in the world today we cannot let our guard down. I would rather see the government reduced by fifty percent instead of our military. It would result in a balanced budget and produce a boost in the private sector. Our foes will see our strenght and will not dare to tread on us.
ron paul is an unelectable moron
mikeymike143 (Diary) Tuesday, November 29th at 11:33AM EST (link)he is a card carrying member of the ”anti war left”
I am the Media Director for Tea Party Fort Lauderdale, America’s Longest Running Tea Party.
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Exactly
rcastonjr Tuesday, November 29th at 11:49AM EST (link)what our Founding Fathers advocated. I know you probably didn’t mean to actually side with them and in reality you didn’t. Our Founding fathers were non-interventionist as is Ron Paul’s position. Many neo-cons will substitute non-interventionist with Isolationist. That is a lie pure and simple. Our Founders, as does Ron Paul, advocated that we build and maintain the strongest DEFENSE force in the world. No disagreement with that right? Didn’t think so and Ron Paul agrees with you. Where the disagreement comes from is that our Founders also told the world that as long as you didn’t mess with us you need not worry about us bothering (attacking) you. And in spite of the fact that we don’t really like you and how you run YOUR country, we can still be trading partners. This is a non-interventionist policy, not isolationist as many say on this site and others. Heck, Congress NEVER gets it right and they have been sworn to uphold and defend something they don’t even understand and probably never read. So this brings us to the idea of just what our DEFENSE forces are really for does it not? Are they really to defend America or are they to impose our will on the world at large? If it is the latter then we should rename them offense forces. One of those cost a lot less than the other to do. Now don’t get me wrong, as an ex USAF pilot I’m all for going to war DEFENDING our country from an attacker and certainly in response to being attacked. I’m not thrilled about the idea of going to war because somebody “MAY” be thinking about attacking us. That philosophy has kept us involved in very expensive and unaffordable “entangling alliances”. We are going broke and our kids are dying defending other countries. (I know, I know what you are thinking, they died defending our country!) We need to rethink this “interventionist policy”. Being the worlds policeman is getting old and expensive in money and human treasure. And just how are we paying for all of this? Ever hear of the FED? Have they ever been in the habit of printing money out of thin air? Yep. Still doing it. What happens to our standard of living when the FED prints all this money to go to war? Our dollar is devalued and inflation follows. In spite of what the FED says are any of you experiencing any increases in prices when you go to the store? This is a direct consequence of un-ending war and FED money laundering, I mean printing. The American people are paying over and over for these wars. Feeling any safer these days? Didn’t think so. I am not anti-war, I AM anti-unneccessary war. Now the idiot running the asylum at the whitehouse has just committed our troops to another country, Australia! Are they not fully capable of defending themselves? Really? When does this end? When we have troops in every country in the world? If we had any balls at all as a nation we would pull back from all of this and get the hell out of everybody’s business. We would return to the philosophies of our Founders. We would make it clear that we are not going to bother you but if you screw with us we will use everything we have to wipe you of the map as fast as possible. The rules of engagement would be simple, kill the enemy as fast as you can using any means necessary to do it. No tying the hands of our commanders. Get in, do the job and get out. Then leave, come home, and let them clean up the mess. This is the military our Founders envisioned and it would be a hell of a lot cheaper than the global behemoth we have today. So, can we cut the military budget? You bet your sweet fanny we could if we simply returned to our non-interventionist policies and put the FED out of business.
Do any of you get it
mspector (Diary) Tuesday, November 29th at 1:24PM EST (link)That this argument is (to say the least) abstruse? Not unimportant, certainly. But for people who do not spend their hours analyzing graphs almost impossible to follow. I’m a pretty smart guy, and this exchange makes my eyes roll back in my head. Somebody on the GOP side has to be able to boil all this down into comprehensible language and images (“sequestration” — really?) or it is an issue that will carry no weight at all in 2012.
“Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.” (Thomas Paine)
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Military cuts depend on whether the action is in CONUS or abroad.
Paul Fallavollita (Diary) Wednesday, December 7th at 7:15PM EST (link)No country is going to cross the ocean to invade the United States. It’d take a level of effort no nation could sustain to subdue this population. Would YOU really want to administer Los Angeles or Detroit? Now, if you care about defending Taiwan or South Korea or something (and I don’t), that’s another story.