I have evaluated the candidates in five areas to see how they stack up based on objective criteria.
1. Will the candidate defend America and prevent Iran from building atom bombs?
Michelle Bachman – Yes
Rick Perry – Yes
Rick Santorum – Yes, he has strongly supported GWOT
Jon Huntsman – Yes
Newt Gingrich – Yes
Mitt Romney – Yes
Ron Paul – No – FAIL!
2. Does the candidate uphold good moral/family values in his/her own life?
Michelle Bachman – Yes
Rick Perry – Yes
Rick Santorum – Yes
Jon Huntsman – Yes
Mitt Romney – Yes
Newt Gingrich – NO
3. Does the candidate have executive experience?
Michelle Bachman – No
Rick Perry – Yes
Rick Santorum – No
Jon Huntsman – Yes
Mitt Romney – Yes
Newt Gingrich – No
4. Has the candidate ever won a state-wide election?
Michelle Bachman – No
Rick Perry – Yes, over five times!
Rick Santorum – Yes, twice in the key purple state of Pennsylvania
Jon Huntsman – Yes, twice
Mitt Romney – Yes, once
Newt Gingrich – No
5. Is the candidate a veteran; if not, did they avoid the draft or were they too young for the draft?
Michelle Bachman – No, too young for draft – also not subject to it
Rick Perry – Yes
Rick Santorum – No, too young
Jon Huntsman – No, too young
Mitt Romney – No, avoided the draft
Newt Gingrich – No, avoided the draft
My conclusions: I began this exercise as a Santorum supporter, and he is still my first choice. However, as I researched the candidates I was surprised at just how accomplished both Governors Perry and Huntsman are. Rick Perry is just a hair behind Rick Santorum on my list, now. Governor Huntsman is my third choice, and Michelle Bachman is my fourth choice. I do not live in Iowa, so before I cast my vote I will see how these candidates have performed in the early states and vote for the one in my top four who is most likely to win at that point. With four very talented people who are good debaters, I’m not sure why we would choose either Romney or Gingrich. However, I would rather win with Romney than lose with Gingrich. If it is a two-man race between Romney and Gingrich, I vote for Romney.
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To win against anyone but Gingrich, Obama must show that his failed policies are better for America than the conservative solutions offered by his Republican opponent. Against Gingrich, Obama, or his lackeys, have the option of going all-out negative on character and Palinizing Gingrich. Since Gingrich was already Palininized before Palin was even a mayor, this will be a very easy strategy for the left. Gingrich might well still win, but why take a chance on him when we have four other candidates with fine records who are good debaters.
Victoria Coates
Daniel Horowitz
I am recommending this because it's a good way to settle things out in your own mind...
johnconradarens (Diary) Sunday, December 11th at 7:41PM EST (link)But, I would like to point out a couple of things:
As Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich most certainly does have executive experience, and of a world-class sort: He set agendas, moved legislation, assigned committee memberships, oversaw policy, etc. While I may not agree with much of his rants and rhetoric over the years, I don’t think this can be denied.
Also, I would not use the “executive experience” module for more than it’s worth. Jimmy Carter had “executive experience”. Abraham Lincoln didn’t. LBJ won state wide elections. Eisenhower didn’t. So what?
I, too, am very hep to Santorum. He’s a first-rate man.
Newt's Leadership
Freedoms Truth (Diary) Sunday, December 11th at 9:44PM EST (link)“As Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich most certainly does have executive experience, and of a world-class sort: He set agendas, moved legislation, assigned committee memberships, oversaw policy, etc.”
I second this comment.
Others may critique Newt’s leadership as Speaker, but it was real, and it was the most successful 4 years of conservative legislative governance in the modern era.
That Newt+Clinton managed to pass more conservative bills (welfare reform, Freedom to Farm, etc) than GWB+Hastert speaks volumes to how non-conservative Republicans can screw up.
We need a real conservative leader. If the second coming of Reagan wont happen, Newt will do.
Freedoms Truth,
Travis Monitor – http://travismonitor.blogspot.com
Austin, TX
Great method in analyzing the field!
abierubin (Diary) Sunday, December 11th at 9:33PM EST (link)It’s amazing how substance and facts barely matter to most, for none of the substantive candidates are front-runners.
This deserves to be front-paged IMO.
If Newt is lacking in all of these areas
superpatriot Sunday, December 11th at 10:23PM EST (link)Then why is he leading in virtually every poll out there??
Statewide elections
dpmapper (Diary) Sunday, December 11th at 10:29PM EST (link)For sake of completeness you should also add in statewide losses. Bonus for figuring out how much the candidate exceeded the Republican baseline in that state… a win in PA is more impressive than a win in TX or UT. But then again there is that big loss…
By the way
dpmapper (Diary) Sunday, December 11th at 10:31PM EST (link)I can’t find the link to post a diary. Someone said it was to the left of the logout button, but not for me…
I think you first have to request to make a diary, if you are new posting at Redstate.
David123 (Diary) Sunday, December 11th at 11:14PM EST (link)Ask Neil Stevens or one of the other Moderators.
David123
If the Republican nominee carries Pennsylvania, Obama's path to re-election becomes virtually impossible
David123 (Diary) Sunday, December 11th at 11:11PM EST (link)You are correct that Santorum’s 2006 loss is a negative. yet Santorum IS the one who showed that a CONSERVATIVE Republican can win in PA … twice.
2006 was a bad year for Republicans. The Democrats had targeted Santorum for maximum effort. Casey was supposedly pro-life. And Santorum had angered many conservatives by supporting Specter over Toomey in the previous primary. It was a perfect storm.
In 2012 the Republican will be running against Obama, Mr. pro-abortion. Perhaps time, or the threat of an Obama re-election, will lead many to forgive Santorum for having supported Specter.
David123
might consider adding Leadership to the criteria
lizzie Sunday, December 11th at 11:48PM EST (link)A very interesting read/frame for understanding why candidates win/lose, and secondarily, how to assess Presidential leadership is this book that was the text for a grad school course I took in 2004 on the “History of the Presidency”.
Stephen Skowronek: “The Politics Presidents Make: Leadership from John Adams to Bill Clinton.” Cambridge: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 1993
Skowrenek’s typology forces each president into a political identity that is either opposed or affiliated with his predecessor, whose ‘previously established commitments’ are either vulnerable or resilient.
The dilemma for the GOP is to find the candidate who is NOT-Obama, but also NOTBush43.
Probably why Gingrich is doing so well in the polls, besides his debate skills.
and why so many dems wish Bill Clinton could run again.
Of course, using Skowrenek’s typology, Nixon should have easily beat JFK in 1960, and Bush41 should have easily won re-election in 1992.
Trying to find a candidate who can overcome the very real Bush43+Obama Derangement Syndromes, is why nothing makes sense today except for voter anxiety.
It does explain why Jon Huntsman’s name keeps popping up, and why Rick Perry has to prove he is NOT “another governor from Texas/dumber than W” – still the most difficult stereotype he has to overcome.
BTW, Rick Santorum needs to ditch that jacket he wore today on Face the Nation. Never wear plaids or houndstooth-checks on television.
I still think Debbie Wasserman Schultz said it best.
Menlo (Diary) Monday, December 12th at 1:23AM EST (link)As much as it pains me to agree with her on anything, the candidates really are interchangeable Legos from my perspective.
“The ultimate touchstone of constitutionality is the Constitution itself and not what we have said about it.” -Felix Frankfurter