I posted yesterday a quick analysis of the PA Senate race and the supposed tightening of the polls there. The key takeaway was the results of the Morning Call/Muhlenberg daily tracking poll, which I still question because I’m not confident they have their likely voter model correct. But the trend was enlightening:
Sestak 44 – Toomey 41
Sestak 43 – Toomey 43
Sestak 43 – Toomey 43
Sestak 42 – Toomey 45
Sestak 42 – Toomey 47
Well, since it is a daily tracking poll, they released another data point today:
Sestak 40 – Toomey 48
The trend is clear and not good for the Democrat. His low 40 support is eroding, most likely because his base is vacillating on whether to vote or not. I doubt anyone is changing their mind and thinking of voting for Toomey, they are just evaluating whether or not to actually vote.
All the usual caveats, Toomey isn’t over 50 yet, it is only one poll, we still need to GOTV.
But no need to panic, this race is well in hand.
Moe Lane
PG DeFreese
Victoria Coates
Daniel Horowitz
Dan Spencer
No, never get complacent
izoneguy (Diary) Tuesday, October 26th at 4:01PM EST (link)POLLS mean NOTHING…..
Voting is what will make a difference.
AND then staying engaged after the election.
The point cannot be made often enough: Modern liberalism, as embodied in the Obama presidency, is the defender of the status quo. And the status quo is a road to economic ruin. Political forces cannot redistribute the wealth that the economic system does not produce.
No one is getting complacent
The_Rebel (Diary) Tuesday, October 26th at 4:08PM EST (link)Dave put in the usual caveats, and the GOTV needs. He’s only telling us not to panic because some college polls or Dem leaning PPP polls say otherwise. Let’s not fall into their push poll and bad sample poll traps.
Exactly the point
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Tuesday, October 26th at 4:27PM EST (link)One of the quibbles I have with Neil’s modeling methodology (and Nate Silver and RCP average) is that a number of polls are generated with a specific spin based on the results desired.
Now Neil is nice in assuming it is a bad poll, but over the years I have noticed that there never seems to be a bad poll that messes up the averages in the GOP direction, it is always for the Democrats. It is almost as if someone knows that getting two polls into an RCP average will make a Dem trailing by 6, suddenly be trailing by 3 and inside the MOE.
So this year we appear to have the normal “all bad polls that mess up averages tilt toward the Democrat” and a new factor that indicates that the turn out models for the LV screens are over sampling Democrats. A double dip error.
Even so, the GOP is still leading in most of the polls, but the Dem is made to look competitive. I don’t think they are, I think the only two competitive races are California and Washington, and I’m not even convinced about Washington.
Right now, O’Donnell could win and I would not be unsurprised.
Anyway, we still need to execute, but we don’t need to panic. We are positioned to win, just 7 laps to go, don’t blow a tire.
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy
Good job, Dave
GregInFla (Diary) Tuesday, October 26th at 11:52PM EST (link)– A true evolutionist would let endangered species die off. Think about it.
– The sign outside the courthouse said no signs allowed. So I took it down.
– Atlas Shrugged is now on the non-fiction aisle at Amazon.
Can a moderator fix the size?
GregInFla (Diary) Tuesday, October 26th at 11:55PM EST (link)I thought I made it smaller but something went amiss. Sorry about that. I made object width/height correct.
– A true evolutionist would let endangered species die off. Think about it.
– The sign outside the courthouse said no signs allowed. So I took it down.
– Atlas Shrugged is now on the non-fiction aisle at Amazon.
If the mods can't help you...
mbecker908 (Diary) Wednesday, October 27th at 12:37AM EST (link)if you’ll get me your email address I’ve got some emails in my spam folder that can help out. Well, that assumes you want to make it bigger.
425/344 is a good ratio.
Moe Lane (Diary) Wednesday, October 27th at 2:05AM EST (link)You have to put it in twice, though. Or just go to the YT page and punch it in there.
The Kim Kardashian of blogging.
Check out my blog at http://moelane.com/.
http://moelane.com/filthy-lucre-filthy-lucre/
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My (combined) wish list.
Thanks Moe
GregInFla (Diary) Wednesday, October 27th at 7:08PM EST (link)The last set of height/width seemed to reference a full-size object, so I was not sure if that one needed changing. Obviously, it did. I’ll do better next time.
– A true evolutionist would let endangered species die off. Think about it.
– The sign outside the courthouse said no signs allowed. So I took it down.
– Atlas Shrugged is now on the non-fiction aisle at Amazon.
No
Neil Stevens (Diary) Wednesday, October 27th at 2:07AM EST (link)There’s no need to panic, and I’m rating the state well for Toomey, but the work must go on until we see through the win.
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