h/t to Geraghty
I got into a bit of a tiff over the weekend for saying to not panic over the polls showing the Toomey/Sestak race is tightening. I didn’t put much stock in the previous polls showing things like a 12 point race, because they were only showing a differential, not the base level of support for the candidates out of the entire electorate.
Now that we are closer to election day, people who were undecided are deciding. Unsurprisingly, a number of Democrats are deciding they will vote for the Democrat. This is bringing Sestak’s number up from the mid 30s to the low 40s. Because the previous lead was being reported as a differential, Toomey’s support really hasn’t changed a great deal, but the undecided Dems are now saying they will vote (we will see if they really do).
Morning Call/Muhlenberg has started offering a daily tracking poll on this race, which I find questionable because of its likely voter model. However, it does offer some useful insight. Let’s look at the last 5 reports on this track:
Sestak 44 – Toomey 41
Sestak 43 – Toomey 43
Sestak 43 – Toomey 43
Sestak 42 – Toomey 45
Sestak 42 – Toomey 47
What can we draw from this trend? Well one thing that people might try to draw is “Toomey is surging! He went from -3 to +5 in 5 days! Whoo Hoo!”. Fine, temper the enthusiasm, he isn’t over 50 and to my knowledge never has been. The important point is that Sestak’s core support is around 43, which is where you would expect a Democrat in a heavily Democrat state to be, if he is losing a large section of the Independents.
Sestak has benefited from his base finally saying things to pass through a likely voter screen, and he is showing a flat level of support as a result. It isn’t growing and you could argue it is eroding a bit (again, I don’t trust this poll to be getting their turn out or likely voter model correct).
Toomey will be fine next Tuesday as long as he executes his final week’s strategy. GOTV, rallies, and final advertising push will net him a 4 to 6 point win, and there really isn’t anything Sestak can do to stop that. So sure, send some extra money and help make phone calls. But don’t panic over these polls.
Moe Lane
PG DeFreese
Victoria Coates
Daniel Horowitz
Dan Spencer
I'm not trying to continue a dispute in these comment
civil truth (Diary) Monday, October 25th at 12:47PM EST (link)But if I’m coming across as doing that, then let me know and I’ll back out, since this is your diary.
But perhaps we should view our perspectives as complementary rather than conflicting.
* * * * * * * * * *
Fortunately, no one’s panicking on the ground among the people I’ve heard from
And they are doing exactly what you state: GOTV (phone banking, etc), rallies, and hoping for a final advertising push.
And in the end, that’s what they’ve got to do, just as in the era before polls were available.
If your sources have access to internals, then I will defer to your sub-analysis, especially if they indicate that Sestak’s support numbers may be topping out.
I’m well aware there are major constraints on extrapolating from two Rasmussen data points.* And I have been ignoring the Morning Call/Muhlenberg numbers throughout. Which is why I’m not panicking and was not trying to induce that.
That is, what the Rasmussen polling primarily indicates, in my view, is that this race is no longer a shoe-in, that there’s no place anymore for complacency. Nothing more than that for the readership here.
And the people on the ground have gotten that message.
This week’s Rasmussen could be enlightening as it will provide a critical third data point needed to better define the trend curve.*
But I’d sure prefer being in Toomey’s position than in Sestak’s.
—————————–
*Mathematically, you need at least three points to estimate curvature, as that is a second derivative.
The greatest evil…is conceived and ordered (moved, seconded, carried, and minuted) in clean, carpeted, warmed, and well-lighted offices, by quiet men with white collars and cut fingernails and smooth-shaven cheeks who do not need to raise their voice. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the offices of a thoroughly nasty business concern. -C.S. Lewis
http://www.gmsplace.com/
No problem, and I apologize for our heated exchange
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Monday, October 25th at 1:11PM EST (link)I thought long and hard about it this weekend.
I view the GOTV, et. al. to be part of the last week strategy, and necessary for victory. However, I always assumed it would be. Pat is an experienced politician, he knows what to do.
Rasmussen will be enlightening, I agree. I expect it to show about the same as last time, which will be a good thing. The only thing I worry about is a receding wave, which would be indicated by slippage in all of the polls, including PA Senate.
If they remain steady, or Toomey increases a little, then we are looking at the wave holding or continuing to grow, and Toomey will win. Even if the wave is pulling back, Toomey could still win in a close one.
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy
Here's some good news from PA
The_Rebel (Diary) Monday, October 25th at 5:00PM EST (link)The George Mason University website, http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2010.html, has updated their statistics today to show PA early voting figures. Thus far, about 50,000 have voted, and the breakdown of voter registration is 56.4% Republican and 34.7% Democrat. Unfortunately, unlike other states, there is no comparative info from 2008.
But as of May, 2010, the voter registration breakdown in the state was 51% Democrat and 37% Republican. So the Dems are over 16 points behind their registration stats, while the Republicans are almost 20 points ahead of theirs. That has to bode well come next Tuesday in terms of enthusiasm for our side, and DOOM for theirs.
That is excellent news for Pennsylvania
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Monday, October 25th at 5:37PM EST (link)The Dems have been touting early voting as a sign they are making gains. But if early voting in a Blue state like PA is so lopsided, then it is very bad news and bodes well for next Tuesday.
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy
It's Not Real "Early Voting" in PA
IJB Monday, October 25th at 6:29PM EST (link)What is actually being reported is the returning of *absentee* ballots.
But PA doesn’t have “early voting” (with actual polling places) like the way it’s done in other states, IIRC.
Good point, IJB
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Monday, October 25th at 6:53PM EST (link)But the Dems have been including absentee ballots in their spin.
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy
It appears that the GMU early voting analysis
The_Rebel (Diary) Monday, October 25th at 8:01PM EST (link)for PA does not differentiate between “true” early voting and absentee voting. But, in any event, this Roll Call story last Wednesday shows the enthusiasm on our side vs. the Dems. Also, while Republicans have had an advantage in absentee voting in the last two cycles in PA, the edge this year appears to be greater.
GMU Analysis
bluerose75 Monday, October 25th at 8:23PM EST (link)This only confirms what the Battleground Poll out today confirms. The enthusiasm on our side is very real. The 15 percent advantage from Independents can not be countered by DEM “get out to vote programs” The distrust and dislike of Obama’s policies and the Democrats is there…the overwhelming theme from Independents is that the Democrats grew the Government too big..too fast and too costly!! That is what drives elections. What GMU is picking up is that eagerness for a change!! And the Republicans better not screw it up!!! The Republicans and Independents are ready to vote!!!
But will a 15% advantage from Independents
The_Rebel (Diary) Monday, October 25th at 9:32PM EST (link)be enough to counter this?:
http://michellemalkin.com/2010/10/25/voter-fraud-watch-theyre-at-it-again/
We must remain vigilant and pro-active to counter this voter fraud. They see the big wave coming and are attempting to override it, legally or illegally.