As a result of the 2008 election Florida is represented in congress by 15 Republican and 10 Democrat representatives, with 2 Republican and 1 Democrat seat changing parties. Bill Nelson-D and Mel Martinez-R are our Senators, neither of which were up for reelection in 2008. Our governor is Charlie Crist-R who was also not up for reelection. The highest profile non-politician is Jeb Bush-R who is the former governor and not holding (or running for) any office currently. Jeb Bush is immensely popular in Florida.

The statewide party affiliation is:

Republican: 2006- 3.9M 2008- 3.9M Delta- (0.8)%

Democrat: 2006- 4.2M 2008- 4.3M Delta- 2.6%

Independent: 2006- 2.3M 2008- 2.3M Delta- (0.4)%

Total: 2006- 10.4M 2008- 10.5M Delta- 0.7%

Note that while Florida has slightly more Democrats than Republicans, they are concentrated in 7 districts (02, 03, 11, 17, 19, 20, and 23) that all have 50% or higher Democrat registration. Only two districts are similarly strong for the Republicans (01 and 14) with 49% Republican registration. Most other districts have slight Republican majorities, usually about 42%R to 37%D. This means that Florida can be put in play for Democrats in a state-wide or presidential election (as shown in 2008), but district by district, Republicans will tend to hold the majority of congressional and legislature representation.

Florida 03

Incumbent Status

Incumbent: Rep. Corrine Brown, D

First Elected: 1992 (8th term)

Last Elected: 2006 (%)

Incumbent Status: Running for re-election

Race Forecast: Safe Democrat

2008 Results

Corrine Brown (D) unopposed

2008 Funding

Brown: Funding Received – $502,916.00, Spent – $465,989.00, Remaining Cash – $57,022.00

District Statistics (2000 Census)

2006 Voter Registration: 62D/19R/19I

2006 Results: Unopposed

Population: 639,295

Under 18: 28.3%, Over 65: 10.8%

Married: 42.6%

Non-Hispanic White: 38%, Black: 49%, Hispanic: 8%, Asian: 2%

Foreign Born: 8.8%, Language other than English: 14%

Median Household Income: 29,785, Owner Occupied Housing: 55.7%, Income above $200k: 0.7

White Collar: 51.8%, Blue Collar: 27%, Services: 20.7%

Bachelor’s Degree: 13%, Graduate Education: 4.2%

Civilian Veterans: 65,022

Party Contact Info

In Florida, the Republicans are organized by county, not district. The Florida Republican Party maintains ties with each Country organization. FL-03 includes parts of Duval, Clay, Putnam, Alachua, Marion, Volusia, Lake, Seminole, and Orange counties.

Duval County web site

Clay County web site

Putnam County No Website available

Alachua County web site

Marion County web site

Volusia County web site

Lake County web site

Seminole County web site

Orange County web site

Florida GOP web site

State Conservative Policy and Advocacy Organizations

James Madison Institute – J. Robert McClure III, President

Foundation for Excellent in Education – Patricia W. Levesque, Executive Director (This is Jeb Bush’s organization)

Florida TaxWatch

FreedomWorks – Florida

Analysis

Florida 03 is one of those districts where I disagree with Moe. This isn’t insanely difficult to win, this is impossible. This is a gerrymandered district that runs from the black districts in southwest Jacksonville, across to eastern Gainsville, and down the St. Johns River into Orlando, where is snakes through a few more black communities. It is specifically designed to produce a majority black district, and comes close at 49%. Since the district takes a small piece of most of the counties it slices through, it tends to be ignored by the county GOP organizations, who are more worried about the other districts they serve. Brown has run unopposed for the last two elections, but still manages to raise and spend campaign funds. Makes me wonder what you need to spend $465,000 on, when you don’t have an opponent. If I’m a Republican living on the west side of the St. Johns River in Lake County, I’m probably not feeling like a well served constituent.