.

is that there is going to be some percentage of voters – some undecided, some leaning toward Obama – who are going to walk into the booth on November 4th and decide they just cannot vote for Obama. It’s not because he’s black, but rather because some of the negative perceptions have become a bit more set. And on top of that, people may recall that they’ve heard almost no bad news from Iraq lately, the only bad news from Afghanistan is that there is some collateral damage from killing al Qaida kingpins operating out of people’s houses, gas is $2 a gallon, we haven’t been attacked here since 9/11, PUMAs who intend to be faithful to the Democrat but have too bad of a taste still left from Obama’s treatment of Hillary and then Palin, etc.

Maybe that’ll be <1% of people. Maybe it will be 2%. But it will be SOMETHING, whereas I don’t see anywhere close to the number of people who might do the same to McCain. And the people affected will be normal middle class people in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. Maybe it will be just enough of a sliver of people in the right states to flip a couple from barely Obama to barely McCain.

I expected against Hillary is magnified by Obama esp given the large numbers of Hillary voters for McCain.

Signs Pointing To A McCain Victory

Well, there is another story out there that the MSM refuses to address. A huge story. One that could, and I think will, significantly affect the outcome of this race. I’m referring to the widespread phenomenon of registered Democrats openly supporting John McCain. There are numerous “Democrats for McCain” type organizations. There are numerous websites and blogs written by Democrats touting McCain’s candidacy. There are pro-McCain grassroots efforts being led by Democrats. And we all know friends or relatives who are Democrats, who voted for John Kerry in 2004, and who are no fans of President Bush – but who are going to vote for John McCain this year.

Yet, surprise surprise, the mainstream media is not talking about these voters, not talking about the real rift that is occurring within the ranks of the Democratic Party. Needless to say, if a similar rift were occurring in the Republican Party, it would be treated as the major story that it is. (Indeed, as such stories about the political fault lines in the Republican Party have been treated in the recent past.)

Who are these pro-McCain Democratic voters? They overwhelmingly tend to be former Hillary supporters. Perhaps the most well-known of these voters are the “PUMAs” – which stands for Party Unity My Ass. These are Hillary supporters who are adamantly opposed to Obama. Let’s not forget that during the Democratic primaries – real elections, not polls – Hillary crushed Obama among white working-class and middle-class voters in such key states as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. If a meaningful number of these voters end up voting for McCain, as I predict they will, then Obama’s smooth road to the White House is going to run smack into a brick wall.

Earlier this week, I attended a John McCain campaign event in New York City. There were several Democrats in attendance. Not only people who are registered Democrats, but party leaders and workers who had been actively involved in Hillary Clinton’s campaign. Indeed, the gentlemen who “keynoted” the event was a former publisher of the left-wing Village Voice magazine and a veteran of the Robert Kennedy, George McGovern, and Jimmy Carter campaigns. Hardly a right-wing conservative. He gave one of the best stump speeches I have heard why Barack Obama should not be elected president. (It comes down to not trusting Obama to keep the United States safe and strong in a dangerous world and rejecting Obama’s “government knows best” attitude when it comes to domestic issues.) Another person I met at the event was a sprightly elderly woman who manned telephones for Hillary for five months, and now is supporting McCain.

There is nothing remotely similar to this taking place among Republicans. (No, Christopher Buckley endorsing Obama is not the same thing at all.)

Some more anecdotal evidence of a lack of support for Obama among Democrats: I live in the Upper West Side neighborhood of New York City. You cannot find too many places in the country that are more liberal than that. Walking around my neighborhood during the 2004 presidential campaign, I felt “assaulted” on all sides by Kerry-Edwards buttons, bumper stickers, and posters. This year, there clearly is not the same level of outward support for Obama. It is remarkable (and welcome). Will most of the people in my neighborhood vote for Obama on election day? Of course. Will Obama win New York? Almost certainly. But the lack of enthusiasm for Obama among these Democrats, who I’m sure would be going gaga for Hillary, speaks volumes about Obama’s true prospects for victory this year.

The point is simple: Don’t believe the Obama hype coming out of the mainstream media. If the media were truly objective and unbiased, they would be covering the race much differently. Instead of trying to browbeat the country into voting for Obama, they would be analyzing the issues and factors that favor and disfavor both candidates. Instead of focusing on college students and intellectuals, they would be focusing on working-class and middle-class voters, especially “Hillary Democrats.” These voters may very well determine the election. Yet this huge story is being ignored by the MSM.

Furthermore, the media would not so consistently confuse intensity of support for breadth of support. Granted, Barack Obama’s supporters tend to be more enthusiastic about their candidate than John McCain’s supporters are about him. Leftists are always looking for their earthly messiah. But this does not mean that Obama’s supporters, come election day, will outnumber McCain’s. Whether in support of McCain or in opposition to Obama, I predict these voters will go to the polls. Contrary to the wishful thinking of Democratic pundits, they are not staying home. These voters may be unexcited, but they are not apathetic. And 51% of “unexcited” voters will defeat 49% of even the most “inspired” voters. Every time.

Of course, we all know what the mainstream media’s “narrative” will be if (I believe, when) John McCain wins the election: The American people refused to vote for Obama because of the color of his skin (and not because of the content of his politics). The “right-wing attack machine” scared voters into voting for McCain, even against their own social and economic self-interest. Black and poor voters were intimidated by Republican thugs and prevented from voting. We know this story by heart as well.

So be prepared. In a few more weeks, the political environment in this country is likely to become a heckuva lot nastier. For there are real signs pointing to a McCain victory this year, whether or not the mainstream media wants to acknowledge them.

nt

I have faith in my country and the people in it. It would be insanity to elect Obama, and I’m not convinced by any means people are that crazy. The American people know better. Another good thing, after this, there won’t be a question ever again if the polls are right or wrong. How does a poll make any sense, when it claims Obama has 51% of the vote, however, the same pollster has McCain being the most trusted and experienced by 80% to be president? It makes no sense and I learned a long time ago that polls are a waste of time. Especially in this particular election.

On whole, one thing that I am pleased the most is that despite Obama’s record fundraising levels, he couldn’t cut significantly into McCain’s numbers.

Maybe this is a lesson we should all learn. That much money means nothing if you have political beliefs that’s out of touch with mainstream Americans. And while our economy is taking a hard hit, it’s not enough to tilt voters over to Obama, so that’s good news for us.

Nevertheless, my question is, would Obama be better off accepting public funding and leave tons of money raised during primary season to Dem 527s? I think Obama’s number of changes on some key issues hurt him a lot prior to the general campaign season. That probably left some small seeds of doubt in some minds of the voters.

Ras coming out today with +3 the annointed one is HUGE in my opinion. I know many have expressed frustration with Ras this cycle but unlike Zogby and some of the rest of the MSM garbage polls, Ras has shown great steadiness in his trends which reflects to me a consistent methodology even if I believe he is oversampling Ds despite his best efforts to accurately gauge Voter ID.(something tells me that the voters haven’t gone from +2 TAO up to +12 TAO and back down to +4 TAO all in less than 2 weeks as Zogby has reported)

I still believe that if TAO hasn’t convinced you to vote for him by now after a gajillion $s of ads, it’s gonna be tough to provide a reason for you in the next 7 days. My gut tells me there’s blowback messiah fatigue coming (it’s why I’m very selective in what and how much I send my more politically apathetic address book; too much and they just tune you out)

I also believe in my heart that despite what the polls say (and, trust me, I clung to the ‘polls are wrong’ meme in ’06 and am desparately trying to avoid the same this time) there are a lot of moderate, slightly attuned voters who are embracing the ‘rightness’ and ‘coolness’ of the thought of a black President. I know some of these people. They are center-right but want to be able to show their “open-mindedness” and reject in their own minds any notion that they might not vote for someone just because they’re black (ya know… the whole ‘white guilt’ thing).

I believe (hope?) in my heart that when the time comes to check the box, all of the Joe the Plumber, Bill Ayers, LA Times video, and BHO slickness, will cause them to have one of those “yeah, I know she’s hot and drop-dead gorgeous and I love what she does to my hormones when I’m around her but do I really want to marry her” moments….and go with the seasoned, proven warhorse.

Still praying…fervently.

Where are the Obama internals that contradict McCain’s? Why won’t one of his firms put their reputation on the line and say “our numbers show something different?”

Come on, Obama: At least one of your internal polling firms is disposable enough that you will throw them under the bus. Or at least, you can pay one of them enough to lie to us. You’ve paid millions already to lie to us, what’s another couple tens of million?

Team Obama, by not refuting, is agreeing.

That ought to really scare our Obamabot lurkers.

Las Vegas Review Journal:

While turnout statewide was nearly 25 percent through Sunday, it was just 20 percent among Hispanic voters, 14 percent among voters under 30 and 15 percent among those who didn’t vote in the last three elections, according to an analysis of state early voting records through Sunday prepared by America Votes, an organization that works to mobilize voters.

One of the things that’s easy to forget (I know I have until recently) is that even the ‘good’ polls (i.e. Ras, Battleground, TIPPS), have a worst case scenario for McCain already built in, i.e it’s not like these polls are showing McCain behind based on sampling based on past turnout models and then saying ‘we think turnout in BO groups will be even higher this time.’ It’s the opposite-they’re assuming that all these unreliable groups will turn out and polling accordingly. If they don’t, it’s all upside for McCain.

That’s why I think movement in Ras is so big because while I still believe that he’s oversampling D’s at 7.2% based on past turnouts (even in the disaster of ’06 the #s weren’t that bad), at least he’s enacted a consistent methodolgy over the past months in an attempt to identify shifting voter ID numbers. If he’s showing closure…..

Praying fervently….

LVRJ:
Did they give the comparison between this years percentage by vote block vs. say, 2006 early voting? Wondering if these percentages are consistent with other years, and already built into the models.

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Activists Taking Action: Unified Patriots

Where’s the tax cut money coming from? No one asks the One that question. People are catching on, methinks.

The only thing that concerns me about all this is what effect the MSM publicizing the assumed early-voting results will have.

If the average McCain voter believes the hype about early voting breaking 2-1 Democrat, they may decide to stay home on Tues, since they typically are more lukewarm than the Obamabots. I’m not sure that 2-1 number is legitimate. And I sure don’t like the fact that the MSM gets to play around with telling us what those “results” are before the election is over.

That said, they aren’t able to ‘see’ those ballots. They’re (at best) announcing exit polls of early voters. And we all know how reliable exit polls are (not).

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/mccains-pollster-foresees-tight-race-on-election-night-2008-10-28.html

Hey McCain supporters, it is O.K. to be very optimistic and there is good reason for it. There is a big difference between Obama’s smug overconfidence and our optimism. Overconfidence loses elections and optimism wins them. NOW GOTV!

I heard Rove talking about the enormous number of pollsters doing their thing this election cycle. I believe he said that there were something like 250 polls just in October compared to about 67 in the 2004 election cycle. With everything thing else that Obama has bought including ACORN etc., I would never be surprised to hear that he bought many of those additional pollsters just to make it appear that he is leading by much wider margins than he is. I guess that’s part of the reason why he must accept donations from Adolph Hitler, Osama Bin Laden and Mickey Mouse. Paying people off is very expensive.

I’ve looked into this group and joined, (yes, they take guys). That’s at least 30,000 confirmed voters who WILL get out and vote. They are overwhelmingly Hillary supporters voting McCain because Obama’s fraud, especially in Nevada, has rightly enough incensed them.

There are also a good many who have said they want to wipe the smirks off Biden’s and Chris Matthews’ faces. Obama himslef has strong negatives on his “sweetie” attitude towards women.

I don’t think any pollster has accurately assessed the growing hatred for the liberal propaganda mill or the condescending male politicians, or more importantly, the ACTION that might result.

Special thanks to gamecock for posting the great American
Thinker article. I have been saying since the primaries that we disaffected Hillary supporters were the uncovered political story of the year. I really don’t think the MSM or even the Republican party understands the depth of the bitterness and animosity we feel toward Obama and his supporters. I am 52 years old and have been a Democrat all my life and I’ve never seen anything like it. People just don’t get over these sort of feelings. I am going to be interested to read the breakdown of voters after the election. I think the world is going to be surprised by the number of Dems who crossed over and voted for McCain-Palin. There is a concensus among PUMAs that the party needs to crash and burn and shed the far left loony wing.

And to you too LaBonBon!

I’m really scared of what’s going to happen if we loose this election, but that scares me only a little bit more than what’s going to happen if we win.

During WWI, the German people were fed a constant stream of positive news about the war; the government controlled the media and censored letters from the front.

When the surrender came, the people were shocked. From thier viewpoint, they’d gone from assured victory to humliating defeat without a pause. The conspiracy theories started almost immediately, the most popular ones having to do with Jewish bankers and industrialists selling out the country. We all know where that lead.

Our own socialists have been beating a constant drumbeat of “stolen election” conspiracy theories for eight years, now. If they find themselves loosing suddenly and unexpectedly, look for a LOT of civil unrest in the coming years.

Keep in mind that the German populace was well-educated practically worshiped the idea of civic order before the rise of the brown-shirts, whereas Hollywood has been actively feeding a thug-culture in this country for years. If you thought the Seattle G8 and the South Central riots was scary, wait till you see what happens if the Chosen One is denied his throne next Tuesday.

I’m really scared of what’s going to happen if we loose this election, but that scares me only a little bit more than what’s going to happen if we win.

During WWI, the German people were fed a constant stream of positive news about the war; the government controlled the media and censored letters from the front.

When the surrender came, the people were shocked. From thier viewpoint, they’d gone from assured victory to humliating defeat without a pause. The conspiracy theories started almost immediately, the most popular ones having to do with Jewish bankers and industrialists selling out the country. We all know where that lead.

Our own socialists have been beating a constant drumbeat of “stolen election” conspiracy theories for eight years, now. If they find themselves loosing suddenly and unexpectedly, look for a LOT of civil unrest in the coming years.

Keep in mind that the German populace was well-educated practically worshiped the idea of civic order before the rise of the brown-shirts, whereas Hollywood has been actively feeding a thug-culture in this country for years. If you thought the Seattle G8 and the South Central riots was scary, wait till you see what happens if the Chosen One is denied his throne next Tuesday.

and he played the tape of BHO on a radio interview back in 2001. He talked about his socialistic views and his regret that the civil rights movement didn’t involve using the courts to provide economic equality. A woman called into the show, an Obama supporter, and said that she didn’t believe it was Obama on the tape. Now the Obama camp has never reputed the validity of this tape. It is from a mainstream Chicago radio station interview and yet this woman wouldn’t admit it was his voice. Should McCain win there will be many people believing the election was rigged. There most likely will be civil unrest. I would not want to be near Grant Park in Chicago next Tuesday.

and dem crossovers. It is time for the dems to shake loose the extreme left wing of the party. The comments about our troops that come from the Pelosi, Reid, Murtha crowd is disgusting. To have our so called leaders say that we have lost a war or cannot possibly win when the facts say otherwise is bordering on treason. They need to understand that AMERICANS regardless of party affiliation do not believe in their defeatist agenda.

But:

Undecided = 12%

This election is very, very close. McCain/Palin has a “real” chance of winning this election. Obama’s millions don’t give much results.

Ref: pdf file of Oct 29 poll results

Link

what is the truth about the early voting. I see in NV, FL, NC that it is dissapointing for the libs.

Then in the Washington free newspaper there is an article about how pollsters can’t believe how much the turnout is and how great it is for the libs.

They are stating that early voting was 60-40 for Bush but now 60-40 for Obama this time. If true that is really bad news..

I think Obama would be a terrible President.

However, that isn’t enough to get me to vote for McCain.

If I didn’t like McCain, I would vote Libertarian or Constitution Pary.

I will vote for McCain though, because he will be a fantastic President, and I am sick and tired of my fellow conservatives acting like we just have to take McCain like he is the lesser of two evils.

He is impeccable on national defense and the committment to appoint originalist justices to the SCOTUS. Those two reasons are enough to support him, but there is more.

Anyone who is thinking of sitting this election out or voting for a third party candidate should consider 4 years. Not the next 4 years, but the 4 additional years of brutal imprisonment and torture that John McCain suffered AFTER he refused to be released. There are Patriots and there are Patriots. The man is as tough as nails and is more dedicated to do whatever it takes to protect the American way of life than any person alive. The very least wee can do is go to the polls and give him the chance to lead this nation in our hour of need.

Though I’ve heard “the experts” (including Rove, more inclined to listen to him) warning us to be careful. DO NOT PUT MUCH STOCK IN THE W/E POLLS as these are often the most flawed because of various groups and their w/e patterns as to who may be more “reachable” and “willing to participate” in a Poll over the w/e.

As for Tuesday night…

If McCain/Palin can hold VA and hopefully (of course, FL but looking at) PA and/or OH (or to at least hold them close) to prevent the MSM from calling (spinning) them early – (Vote Psychology (Bandwagon, Bradley, etc) effect) – to influence voting in CO, WI, MO, NM, NV. Yes, some other States they keep telling us are in flux, but it seems to me those hold the keys.

…and some of them are advising their readers to tell pollsters they’re voting for Obama while actually voting for McCain. I can’t condone those tactics, but I do think McCain will do better than polling indicates– and pray it will be enough.

and those were Marist and National Journal – neither of which have been particularly pro-McCain in their numbers the rest of the way. I honestly think that McCain will win VA.

This isn’t so much directed at you daveinfla, just looking for a place to say it.

I think our best hope in Virginia is that the shortage of voting machines will discourage the Obama voters. RCP now has VA solidly Obama. Florida looks like it could be a winner for us, though. PA, no way, but if we hold Indiana and Ohio, it could happen.

I’ll put my heart up for McCain, but my money’s staying in my wallet. As a betting man, the odds are too long for me.

Although I know it’s a fool’s exercise, I just can’t help daydreaming about where things would be if Romney were the VP pick.

Wow.

Please, everyone, visit this link!!!!

http://davidjeffers.thevanguard.org/500/mcmentum/

Then click on “The Real Polls” and be prepared to be blown away!!!!!!!!

…since the primaries for the defeat of the godless Democrats. As a Californian now being held behind the bluestate bamboo curtain, I would welcome the Republicans as liberators.

This will give you chills…
From DebbieSchlussel.com…the reason the Khalidi tape hasn’t been released. A childen’s dance troupe performed at the event. In subsequent performances attended under cover by Schlussel, the little cuties performed mock beheadings of troup members draped in US and UK flags, who then stomped on the flags.

Oh man…now it really makes sense why this tape stays hidden.

http://www.debbieschlussel.com/archives/2008/10/exclusive_d ance.html

Zogby is questionable but he shows Obama having good polling day on Saturday and is back to his lead

Nervous? I am

There were several black families who were brought to the front of the voting line by the volunteer lawyers.

(Who are these lawyers? They approached us in line told us to contact them if we had trouble voting that they could help us. They had some kind of interest in getting us to stay in line, the told us there was no line once we were at the door which was a lie. They didn’t look or act like they were from here. They presented themselves as an authority to make sure everything goes ok with voting but they said they were sent down here from a different state, so I’m thinking who the heck are they if they aren’t from the county?)

One thing I noticed is unlike the white voters in line most of the black voters had a few generations together. There would be an eldlery woman and a son, or an elderly woman and 2 or 3 women in their 20s-40s and their kids.

Most of the white voters were college students in groups and then after that it was old men. There were a couple of older women with the men but mostly the older white men were alone. I didn’t see any white women in their late 20s – 50s in line.

Before I was given my ballot the election lady checking my license was rude to me! I have a foreign last name and she made face and rolled her eyes when she tried to pronounce it! Then she made another face before she gave me my wallet back!

I find that Obama is the most arrogant person who ran for the highest office in the country. He had the audacity to poke in the eye of John McCain in his recent
TV ads and his visit to Arizona.

This thing would have been in bag if he chose Hillary to be his VP. That was another arrogant move. He thought he could do without the support of the Clintons. He snubbed her. Now, he is crawling on his knees begging for Clinton support. BTW, where are the Kennedy clans? Hidden in the bunker.

Obama would have been no where if the News Media had given an unbiased coverage to both camps. Wolf Blitzer and Larry King is unbelivably biased.

This thing would be over if LA times release those tapes of Obama palling in Dinner with those Communists.

There was a huge hullabaloo when Sarah Palin was annouced as the Rep VP saying she was not properly vetted by MCain Team. Now, it looks like Caroline and the Kennady clan didn’t do a good job of checking out Obama and his associates.

Obama don’t know about his Aunt Zeituni Onyango.

Obama don’t know about his cousin Raila Odinga.

Obama don’t know about Bill Ayers.

William Ayers book “Prairie Fire: The Politics of Revolutionary Anti-Imperialism” was written in 1974. Many don’t know that it was republished together with two other Weather Underground books as shown here in 2006.
The book is a frightening insight into the mind of these former domestic terrorists who despise our country and, shockingly, are now teaching some of our college age children.
One of the people Ayers dedicated his book when it was first published was Robert F. Kennedy’s killer, Shiran Shiran, whom he called a U.S. political prisoner.

Obama don’t know about Tony Razko

Obama don’t know about Rashid Khalid

Obama don’t know about Rev. Wright

Obama don’t know about Acorn

Obama don’t know about his religion.

“Let’s not play games. I was suggesting – you’re absolutely right that John McCain has not talked about my Muslim faith.”
Obama don’t know about the States of the Union
“Over the last 15 months, we’ve traveled to every corner of the United States. I’ve now been in 57 states? I think one left to go.”
Obama don’t know about small town people.
And it’s not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”

Obama don’t know about Selma march across the bridge.

Obama has as much trouble with numbers as he has with maps. Last March, on the anniversary of the Bloody Sunday march in Selma, Ala., he claimed his parents united as a direct result of the civil rights movement: “There was something stirring across the country because of what happened in Selma, Ala., because some folks are willing to march across a bridge. So they got together and Barack Obama Jr. was born.”
Obama was born in 1961. The Selma march took place in 1965. His spokesman, Bill Burton, later explained that Obama was “speaking metaphorically about the civil-rights movement as a whole.”

Obama don’t know about Auschwitz.

“I had a uncle who was one of the, who was part of the first American troops to go into Auschwitz and liberate the concentration camps,” Obama said, slowly and methodically. “And the story in my family is that when he came home, he just went into the attic, and he didn’t leave the house for six months. Alright? Now, obviously something had affected him deeply, but at the time, there just weren’t the kinds of facilities to help somebody work through that kind of pain.”
That may be a fact, the RNC noted gleefully — but only if Obama’s uncle served in the Red Army of Joseph Stalin, which liberated Auschwitz Jan. 27, 1945.

I don’t know if he is suitable to hold the highest office in the country.

“Give me a break. This whole thing is the biggest fairy tale I’ve ever seen,” Clinton had said in accusing Obama of distorting his stance on the war.

McCain has a rally in TN tom?

Can anyone explain this move and waste of time?

Why not have rally in VA then?

I thought it was for outside states but its best to have it in state then?

By way Moe can u please fix 404 error problem Please

One thing I don’t get…

I’ve heard the “Obama as incumbent” statement before, but I don’t know where it comes from. Is this a hypothesis or is there some way the pundits gauge voters’ impressions of Obama as the de facto incumbent?

John they say even in your pit of despair, your darkest hour, you told your captors to release a man who had been captive before you even though they were going to release you. Your kindness cost you another couple of years in hell! Your never ending compassion for your fellow human beings will put you over the top tomorrow! We owe you this time! God speed. Independent and veteran for McCain/Palin!