Comments on: I thought Nevada was supposed to be close?

By: nogyro35

nogyro35 — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 11:40:42 +0000

We all say he lacks experience outside academia and campaigns , but he has no experience in hard fought elections either.

I could see an inexperienced nominee misreading the polls.

I pulled these quotes from your article. I bet Obama is misreading this....

"Last night, 81% of voters described their interest in this election as a 10(scale of 1 to 10)! Wow. (As opposed to 75% who described their interest as 10 out of 10, in 2004)

In todays terms, that could mean breaking the barrier of 130 million voters!

There is simply no model that begins to know or predict the composition of the electorate at this level of turn-out. My own view and our own weights in our surveys reflect a belief that African American turn-out will be at historic levels, there will be a significant boost with voters 18 to 29 years old, yet the overall high level of turn-out will begin to mute the increase in the percentage these sub-groups represent in the overall electorate."

The Palin effect!!!

By: Desert_Conservative

Desert_Conservative — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 00:46:31 +0000

I crunched some numbers on this. The poll sample was only for a single Friday over the whole state. I'm trying to get a statewide breakdown of voters(Dem/Rep/Ind) that day so I can accurately extrapolate. In short, using some guesswork, the numbers would indicate McCain is getting 4-5% more than he polls at. That would make it basically even.

Having seen the fist couple days of early voting I don't think there was much crossover those first couple of days when Democratic turnout was heavy.

That being said, I think there has been increased crossover since then. I suspect a lot of Union people are lying to their party bosses and voting McCain.

BTW - My initial impression was that the numbers were even better for Porter than for McCain, but I haven't confirmed it yet.

By: PaRep

PaRep — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 23:13:58 +0000

http://www.foxnews.com/urgent_queue/index.html#1c0439fc,2008-10-28

By: dld1717

dld1717 — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 22:21:51 +0000

Are these numbers bad news for Porter in Nevada? He is in a very close race with Titus any thoughts?

By: eander99

eander99 — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 22:19:22 +0000

The totals in the article DON’T INCLUDE McCains base of support in Rural Nevada, nor do they include swing county Washoe. They are only numerating Democratic stronghold Clark County.

By: DrJeff

DrJeff — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 20:55:18 +0000

If we win, we definitely will give you the credit you deserve!

By: Lysander

Lysander — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 20:54:21 +0000

Anyone with any updates??? The same goes for PA and Virginia??????

By: PaRep

PaRep — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 20:42:51 +0000

By: LaBonBon

LaBonBon — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 20:38:46 +0000

What a great article! I have always believed the PUMA impact has been greatly underestimated. Just look at the number of sites clustered under the “Just Say No Deal” coalition. Visit Hillbuzz.com and NoQuarter.com and see how hard the PUMAs are working for McCain-Palin. Nothing would make me happier than the knowledge that my fellow disaffected Dems and I won this election for McCain-Palin and in the process brought down the socialist wing of the Democrat party.

By: PaRep

PaRep — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 20:35:16 +0000

http://www.phillyburbs.com/pb-dyn/news/219-10282008-1612218.html

By: Swamp_Yankee

Swamp_Yankee — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 18:58:54 +0000

By: nogyro35

nogyro35 — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 18:36:03 +0000

I've also heard things are tighter than expected in the NH Senate race. I hope so.

Of course the best news political news of the year was the selection of Palin for VP.