You know the old saying, look where the candidates are spending their time.
So without trying to be depressing, the schedule for this week is a little gloomy. After spending time in New Mexico over the weekend, there are 4 states where McCain and Palin will be spending time this week, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. This means that at this point, the campaign isn’t seeing a point in going elsewhere.
My best guess is that the McCain campaign thinks the following will occur:
They will win MO, NV, IN, and FL.
They will lose NM, IA, CO, NH, and WI.
Having to spend time in VA and NC is not a good sign, especially NC.
Now take all of this with a grain of salt. This election is within a couple points, and their internal polls are likely affected by some of the same problems that are plaguing the public pollsters. Also, we still see large numbers of undecideds in the public polls. If enough information about Obama gets to them, they may break toward McCain.
But increasingly it is looking like McCain thinks they need to defend 3 Red states and win PA to pull this off, although if they win PA, they can lose either VA or NC.
Dan McLaughlin
Moe Lane
Neil Stevens
Steve Maley
Scary if true
NDPhog (Diary) Monday, October 27th at 11:33AM EST (link)Nice post.
It’s scary if PA is deemed more winnable than CO.
The Virtucon pollster’s thoughts that PaRep referred to on Saturday mentioned that a CO or NH+1EV in ME outcome was possible. That would obviously give us more wiggle room.
Dave,
pwest (Diary) Monday, October 27th at 11:39AM EST (link)I just asked DJ Drummond what he thinks about undecideds. I’ll let you know what he says. In the mean time, I encourage all Red State readers to head over to Stolen Thunder and check out his last three blogs. Good stuff and heartening!
This race will be about Turn out and undecideds!
So, you all know my mantra: Turn out, Turn out, Turn out!
Pam
Oh and one
pwest (Diary) Monday, October 27th at 11:47AM EST (link)last thing. Yeah, it sucks that McCain has to defend VA and NC, but Bob Dole had to defend Alabama in 1996, so while that proved the election was over, he still won Alabama.
McCain can still win VA and NC, so defending them sucks, but he is because he still thinks he can win them. I’ll e-mail my former student who is working in VA for McCain and see if they are still sending him to MO. If they are, then I think his campagin is not as worried about losing VA so much as about Obama winning it. Does that make sense; McCain may only have a two point lead, but he still leads and doesn’t want to lose that to Obama. He wants to get his folks out to vote! McCain doesn’t care if he wins VA by one point, only that he wins.
That is why he has not spent any money in Alabama or Indiana. He knows in the end he will win those states, so don’t spend precious dollars when they can be spent elsewhere!
Pam
I'm not worried about VA in the end
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Monday, October 27th at 11:57AM EST (link)I’m pretty sure McCain will hold all three Red states. What bothers me is not going to CO. Now they haven’t announced the weekend schedule, so maybe the final push is there.
I have no idea if they see CO as a tossup or a loss. If it is a tossup and the final weekend will be there, then they have a possible win without PA. But is the final weekend is PA, that means they think they have to flip PA to win.
The probable loss of IA and NM gives a very thin margin of victory.
Again, take this all with a grain of salt. The same dynamic that is making the public polls look so weird could be affecting McCain’s polls to a degree also.
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy
I'm worried about VA
Brandon (Diary) Monday, October 27th at 12:02PM EST (link)Very worried.
- Brandon
McCain 08
Dave they know it's close & they're sending
PaRep (Diary) Monday, October 27th at 7:37PM EST (link)Palin to keep the Base Energized they will win there & McCain win the Election
PaRep,
pwest (Diary) Monday, October 27th at 7:55PM EST (link)I just e-mailed my former student in VA. As soon as I get word, I’ll post. I e-mail and posted over at DJ Drummond’s site, but have not heard back from him. Maybe, he’s working on a blog post about undecideds.
Let’s all hang in there!
Pam
Now this is just weird, McCain going back to Miami
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Tuesday, October 28th at 7:02AM EST (link)I’ve got to scratch my head on this one. McCain will be in Miami tomorrow.
If he is worried about Florida all of a sudden, I would expect an Orlando trip, not a Miami trip. I can only think of two reasons:
1) He wants to shore up Florida and thinks he can keep making inroads in the Jewish and Hispanic communities.
2) He wants to help the DIaz-Balart brothers and Tom Rooney in their races.
Frankly, if he wants to help people, Keller and Feeney need the help more. Besides, the I-4 corridor is more persuadable.
Is he ever going back to Colorado?
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy
I-4
Swamp_Yankee (Diary) Tuesday, October 28th at 7:28AM EST (link)Didnt McCain do a bus tour through that corridor late last week? Sometimes campaigns dont like visiting the same spot too soon. Maybe next weekend, but they do need to work Florida hard.
On a side note, his website is awful at keeping up an accurate calender.