Your thesis only works if you assume that voters are, in the aggregate, “rational actors”.

Like investors, voters are, on average, in fact “rational actors”.

But, just as there are with investors, there are bouts of “irrational action” that voters succumb to from time to time. When voters act irrationally… well, that’s when a little known Governor like Bill Clinton getting elected despite an clearly recovering economy.

What we are seeing currently, in the national mood, is a perfect storm of exactly one of those times when the voters may actually put fear above their self-interest, and pull the lever for some inexperienced unknown. In fact, I’m pretty sure we’re about to head into one of those periods where the voters are about to get pretty irrational.

So, all things being equal, you’re right – McCain would win this.

But with the way things are going right now, I wouldn’t bet on that proposition. In fact, as of this week, I’d bet against it.

I agree that the vast majority of voters have made up their minds. However I think there are 4-5% that are still deciding.

But the real issue is turnout. The partisan mix that actually votes on (or before) November 4 will determine the election.

If the 18-25 crowd comes out in droves then McCain has a very steep hill to climb.

If the youth vote fizzles like it always has before then Obama has a problem.

The debates are probably the last real game changers and if Sarah Palin can knock Biden down a time or two it would be a major benefit to the GOP ticket.

The US has been sliding closer toward European style socialism ever since I was born. Sure we’ve had Reagan and Bush 2 push through tax reductions and speak of an ownership society but nonetheless, anytime there is a crisis, problem or challenge of any sort, we expect the federal government to make it all right. Perhaps Obama is the candidate we deserve. The silver lining is that if Obama wins (and this looks like the ever increasing reality), the Democrats will finally be forced to stop whining and take responsibility for the first time in 15 years. McCain can be so impetuous and unpredictable and frankly it is getting rather old. Cancelling the debate, suspending his campaing, the stops and starts and keeping Sarah Palin from communicating her substance to even local reporters is becoming ever frustrating and down right inscrutable.

You’d be disagreeing with Bill Kristol.

http://www.theweeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/015/606rmpbt.asp

“The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.” Thomas Jefferson

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You are so on target that its scary!

Keep up the Fight!

Serious Mayhem: Conservative Analysis for News Junkies

This is the first election since 1996 that the moderate middle really will decide the election, that means that Conservatives have a out of alignment point of view.

WE assume that it will be a turn out the base election, election 2008 is not 2004, it is up to the buffet voters this time around, and that sort of voter is not the type that we have dealt with before, in fact, not since 1996 has this voter swung the election, what plays out as madness to “us” may or may not make sense “to them”.

We should never give up!

I have said from the start of the Imitation Christ’s media wing has thrust him upon us that this country is not that liberal….and WE do not listen to the MSM or their polls and I personally do not get up in arms about this election.

I know what I hear in VA and I know what I am now seeing more of than ever before McCain/Palin stickers on cars and that of course has been since they came here to Fairfax.

Fear not my fellow Redstater’s McCain will win….he is not the perfect choice BUT he is the ONLY choice!

Yes, my friends, the election is indeed over. It really was over the minute Sarah Palin’s name was added to the ticket. Her addition created quite a media scramble and a lot of free publicity for the republican ticket – and it boosted the GOP in the polls temporarily. Over the next several weeks, however, the nation will get to see how empty that pot is. The VP debates, the historical record, sound bites, Palin’s record – it will all come together to show that, while Palin is a smart, ambitious, charismatic person, she doesn’t really know jack about world history, current global events, the economy and how it works, etc. etc. The nation will realize that she’s mainly a figurehead and not someone who should be elected to such a high position of power in our country.

In addition, your ticket is doomed because the fact is, your party has brought about the single biggest increase in federal debt (the TRUE measure of the size of government) ever recorded for a two-term president. Your party is the architect of the deregularization (“let the MARKET determine what’s best”) of the banking industry that has spawned this massive set of problems. Your party has started two wars that everybody now sees as wrong-headed, expensive, and costly in terms of lives.

Of course there will be people voting republican for core reasons that current events, candidate competency, and the state of the union will not affect. But most will realize that republicans have had their turn, and frankly, you guys have screwed things up. It doesn’t take a genius to see that the growth and stability of the 90′s has been squandered. The problems that exist now for our nation are not with us because of the last two years, they’ve been eight years in the making. It takes that long to screw things up this bad.

I’m sorry but it is our turn now. The future is our time.

And …Don’t forget about this Voting Block!!

Ponnuru is a blowhard and was NEVER a huge McCain fanatic. He loves to hear his own brilliance, and routinely runs down ALL members of the Republican party for some reason or another- real or imaginary.

Most of that crew at NRO are paleocons who loved Mitt (yes K Lopez I am talking about you!!) and really the only relatively unbiased members of the Corner have been Goldberg and Lowry..

Derbyshire is a total jack@ss and Krikorian not much better. They really can be tedious and represent some of the worst public faces of the GOP- independents would recoil in horror if they read the Corner posts every day.

Yes, the election was over when the Dems chose a known far left McGovernite appeaser. We don’t elect those kind.

Great blog man

recommended

Being the working man that he is, MORON

http://tinyurl.com/45dg5u

…do you fundementally believe that American people are a bunch of mindless robots, taking their marching orders from the media?

Yes, in fact I do think this applies to a very large number of people. How else do you explain such nonsense like…

Bush “stole” the 2000 election.

Humans are causing global warming.

Bush lied to take us into Iraq.

9-11 was orchestrated by the Bush admin.

We’re in a recession.

Barack Obama.

I could go on with more but I think the point is made.

It’s all utter nonsense, yet vast numbers of people buy into all this with garbage with little more than “Al Gore said so and it was on CNN” (A college-educated co-worker once used those exact words to defend her belief in AGW).

{We have big-people issues today. – Moe Lane}

From your mouth to God’s ears…

I think we have been in a politcal war of attrition since the Clinton Administration. Each side is looking for a knock out but we just get good days and bad days and in the end we just fight over Florida..

You clearly haven’t been reading the Paulson-hate from the right of late…

To appeal to independent voters, John McCain hasn’t done few things. He hasn’t asked for people’s vote in any of his speeches. It is as though he seems to think that he is entitled to it. Obama always finishes his speech by asking people’s vote and by asking his supporters to work him.
That itself underscores many unsaid things.

CAPTAIN MY CAPTAIN.. and Fellow Floridian..first let me commend you on a post well done!! I thank you for your sound logic,evenhandedness and common sense. Now , please allow me to voice a different ‘Pebble in my sandal’ moment.. Can you please tell me why it is that I am getting that sickening feeling in the pit of my stomach again? It seemingly arrives right on schedule every 4th year in November.My Point?: I AM already DISGUSTED AND DESPONDENT about the upcoming and eventual ‘Florida Voting Phenomenon’ fallout.

Remember the sullying our Beautiful state fell victim to? And the awful,undeserved battering and abuse she(we)took? The inevitable RINGSIDE MALIGNING we Red Floridians took?

Sadly,I feel another mauling coming on.
Pass the Pink bottle ,please.

Also, If you and I (along with thousands of other Red State Florida Natives and Voters..)voted honestly , how is it that we keep ending up in the corner after 8 rounds with a bloody lip and 2 black eyes?(oops can I say black?)

I AM 44 YEARS OLD AND HAVE NEVER VOTED for a demoncrap !! WHERE DO ‘THEY’ COME FROM? Why are they here?

For crying out loud, I mean I drive a red car and sleep only on the right side of my marriage bed!! But..I digress.

So here’s my take: Its got to be the frikin Cranky Yankees. That’s the only logical explanation. They come down to our Glorious state,buy a plot and proceed to register to vote here (I know for certain it happens,as my husband has an Aunt who hails from mASSachusetts and scurries to Boynton Beach every 6 months) Then-returns BACK to their Northern Hellholes register there and VOTE IN BOTH states.. That’s the only logical explanation. Right, Dave? I mean there just can’t be that many blue transplant idiots in our Beloved state. Right?

Read on. As this REALLY happened 8 years ago..
I reside in the Military buckle of the state. Northwest Florida Panhandle: Proud Home to 6 military bases.Countless military members and spouses,(myself included). Where, in 2000 Governor Jeb Bush called our local 1370 AM talk radio host Luke McCoy and declared, “Luke if my brother is to win the presidency, it will come from the voters of Northwest Florida” Well, Mission accomplished- You’re welcome America !!! So here’s my point: That this time if and WHEN we win this election for the Nation I would like a simple THANK YOU .That’s all. No law suits, no hanging chad investigators, no supposedly disgruntled or disenfranchised
voters’!!!
Yep, just a simple thank you will do.

Instead, I sense the arrival of the inevitable bitchin’ and moanin’ of the whiney, visceral,vengeful,liberal left wing nuts that takes place following the days, weeks and even years after the voting cycle has ended.

So , please just convey it along with your brilliant perspectives to those whiners to simply just say thank you to the great Red State Voters of Florida!!

And as I dismount my soapbox, I thank you for your consideration Brother Dave. Keep up the good work!

Wishing you continued bRIGHT sunshine and conservative warmth. .
Signed, The Red Rebel

I feel your pain rebel, if we had to have a paper trail so bad why didnt we go back to the punch cards? Paper doesnt lie but software can say anyting you want and you cant hack paper. Palin drew 60,000 in the villages and Obama drew 19,000 in dunedin if we lose Florida i will be suspicious..

It’s too hot of a subject for most in the media to touch, but it’s real.

There are a LOT of Democrats out there who are not onboard with Obama, but are afraid to say it to people outside their closest family and friends for fear of being labeled a racist.

The scary part is what the reaction could be in some cities if Obama is winning in the polls going into election day and ends up losing the election – which is what I think will happen.

because a higher percentage of people pay no taxes and therefore are indifferent to the cost of government.

We conservatives must stop going along with this trend towards taking people off the tax rolls. The more taxpayers, the fewer taxtakers, the stronger the conservative movement.

I pray (oh how I pray!) that you are right and Obama will lose, but McCain needs to start fighting harder, fighting as though the national security is at stake.

Because it is.

Here on the site we must be respectful or be banned, but McCain must stop being respectful to Obama or be defeated.

because a higher percentage of people pay no taxes and therefore are indifferent to the cost of government.

We conservatives must stop going along with this trend towards taking people off the tax rolls. The more taxpayers, the fewer taxtakers, the stronger the conservative movement.

I pray (oh how I pray!) that you are right and Obama will lose, but McCain needs to start fighting harder, fighting as though the national security is at stake.

Because it is.

Here on the site we must be respectful or be banned, but McCain must stop being repectful or be defeated.

Myself i think the longer he resist the better..

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13319.html

My God! I feel like I am trapped in a bad dream; McCain refuses to call Obama out! Obama keeps repeating this shameless lie that he will cut taxes for 95% of Americans, never mind that 40% of Americans don’t even pay taxes!

McCain refuses to call out the real villains in this entire financial melt down saga, the liberal democrats that run Congress Barney “Purple” Frank, Chris “Dirty Money” Dodd and Chucky “Sorry” Schumer. I AM TIRED OF POLITE CONSERVATIVES!

As a black conservative, it is time for McCain to call Obama out and tell Barry “Yo Mama” the next time Barry floats another lie to the American people.

Mr. McCain in the immortal words of that idiot P-Diddy, it is time to fight back or die! I hate to say it, but if McCain is tied or behind in the conservative bedrock states of Indiana and North Carolina, then we are in big trouble.

I pray and hope all of you are right, but as of 9/28/08 this conservative is very uneasy, I am not panicked yet, but I am very, very nervous.

Finally, I am sorry, but I’ve lost all hope for the folks in Pennsylvania they are hopelessly trapped in liberal land; hell we might as well rename Pennsylvania – Massylvania.

In the overwhelming majority of pre-election presidential polls in years republicans won, the gop candidate was tanked or tanking.

fact

-ing words are almost never precisely accurate. Never in polls. -ing words are for bodies in motion.

fact

This idea that you propose is spirited, but lacks merit. The biggest advocates for free market on our side got bounced early in our primary. The Repbublican primary runner-up was Huckabee for crying out loud and he was the biggest socialist in the race.

My worry is that the small government battle cry has no powerful advocates anymore. Let’s face it, John McCain is not for small government. He is for low taxes, yes. He is against socialized medicine, yes. But he, along with most prominent Republicans, has accepted that we must “regulate”, use the government to fight global warming, restrict speech in elections, etc.

Where is this proof of a coming surge of small government voters? Wouldn’t Fred Thompson be our candidate if this were the case?

. . . is for this as funniest post of the week.

First campaign speech in a while. Its gong to tell us a lot about the direction of his campaign, tone, strategy, etc… in the ensuing week

How is he going to address the bailout
Reform or experience
Combative or the bi-partisan
Palin front or Palin second
Media references???

PFP was right to mention the “Bradley Effect.”

Can you recall that for the entire week before this latest polling the Drive-bys were touting how anyone who didn’t vote for BO was a secret racist? Do you actually think that changed anyone’s mind? What it did was change how they answered the pollster. BO’s campaign knows how he fared in caucases vs primaries. We should not forget it.