I just can’t understand why even FOX news of all networks is out there reporting, every couple minutes, that they have 215 votes and only need one more vote.

it is driving me NUTS.

I will also toss in this quote from Rush earlier today …

The game isn’t over … they’ve announced kickoff, on Sunday

…To God’s ears.

Dan I hope and pray you are right.
I fear you are wrong.

That FDL count is a day old. Here is the newest one.

http://news.firedoglake.com/2010/03/19/health-care-whip-count-updates-titus-yes-kaptur-lean-yes-195-firm-yes-208-firm-no/

Yeah they are down, but they have some movement in their direction. The Hill took Lincoln Davis off its “NO” and into undecided. Titus is a confirmed yes. Rahall is just looking for cover. What bothers me is Rahll, Kaptur and the weak Stupak Dems and their side deal. That needs to be exposed as a fraud. Rahall said five to ten may peel off if they get that deal.

Time to relax? No way.

Had a great conversation with some Lynch’s staffers. Used some of their talking points and called up Capuano and Tireney.

He is saying at this moment the Dems are 10-11 votes shy. Have to have faith people, we all believe in something far more epherial than this. The Dems don’t have the votes, the Dems will not get the votes, the Dems will be gone in November.

So buck up people and keep up the pressure! We are winning, we will win!

I think Fox’s whip count is ridiculous. Firedoglake sure doesn’t sound optimistic. Dems are in deep doo-doo right now and their members are all wee-wee-’ed up. Dan is right that the math is getting very difficult. The American people need to stay engaged and the GOP members in DC need to stay on message. How does an Army of 16,000 or more IRS agents improve healthcare? How does spending a trillion dollars on a new entitlement lower the deficit? We also cannot allow the pro-life dems to be bought off with some letter promising future action on abortion. That letter would not be worth the paper it is printed on and we cannot allow anyone to say they are pro-life to wave such a letter around. Keep up the fight!!

I, and I am sure many others appreciate your work, the stress you obviously have had, and the aggravation….

I know the Dems are scheming, I know they are prevaricating, I know they are weasels. If they had the votes, they would have voted and broke out the champagne. They would have been front and center with the media to rub our noses in it. No one is running around bragging about their yes votes, they are looking for cover. Maybe their brethren will pay attention to the doom that is going to confront so many come November.

As I said, thank you. I hope you are getting some rest…..

Watching the vote live on CSPAN that day as reps dawdle about the floor while we sit there in our living rooms, watching the tally slowly move, waiting to see if America is about to get shot in the heart.

Note that I didn’t say fatal shot, but a shot nonetheless.

they could sell already, what does the leadership have to offer?
They will have no power after this year; no more committee chairs, no more taxpayer funded trips, no more earmarks (especially there as the new Republican majority will be keen to wipe out earmarks of former Dem Congressmen).
None of them will make it past a Senate confirmation for any cushy executive job.
K Street doesn’t need any more “former” Congressmen–especially if they lost re-election.
Obama will be toxic this fall–no one he campaigns for will win because of him; many will lose because of him though.

They have nothing left to sell but worthless words and empty threats. And maybe the love/hate of a base that will, as soon as this fails, blame them for not making it socialist enough.

LINCOLN DAVIS is jumping ship from no to yes.

I had counted on him as a dependable no vote.

Dan, the yes votes keep creeping up. The pressure on some of these folks must be tremendous, I just don’t know if enough will be able to hold the line. Frankly, I doubt it.

We find it hard to believe, but, his staff says he’s actually reading the Senate bill and is not sure whether he is going to support it. If it’s true, it’s great, and I wish the rest of Congress would read the bill so they’d know what they’re doing, but I wonder if his staff is just saying he’s undecided in order to stop the barrage of calls and complaints. His record is consistently liberal, so if he is truly considering voting no, it would be a shock.

I’m dating myself, but when I was a kid, there was actually a TV program called “Queen for a Day”. Four contestants would get onstage, and each would tell their own tale of woe and misery. At the end of the program, the studio audience would offer applause for the contestant they judged to be the most pitiful; an “applause-meter” would then guage who got the most sympathy, and that contestant would win a grand prize. (Usually a washing machine or household appliance of some kind)

The Democrats’ approach of “policy by anecdote” to this debacle really resembles that old TV program. Even yesterday, Queen Pelois trotted out four individuals, each to tell their own sob story, which in turn is supposed to be the ratioanale for a government takeover of health care. It’s a sad commentary on the intellectual slum that is today’s Democrat party.

and have only gotten thru to 1 office (waste of skin Jim Himes CT 4th Dist. who no one is botherng with since he has had his lips permanently glued to Pelosi’s backside since he took over the seat from Shay (R-sorta) last year. Some phones go straight to voicemail, lots of busy signals and some dead air if they are so overwhelmed they can’t even generate a busy signal. A little better luck with emails but some of those getting server busy messages. I am not giving up…why should I …that’s what they want us to do…why willing do what they want when if they put in place all their plans they will control every aspect of my life. I was fighting for Scott Brown 2 months before they even knew his name and kept on the whole time they were saying he had no chance to win. There is too much at stake…it is NOT inevitable…I hate how conservativea are always willing to go to that fall-back position and the Liberals/Oppressives NEVER are….perhaps that is why we get into these positions.

I think it is quite telling that the House is now asking the Senate for a signed statement that they will agree to take up reconciliation after the House votes. That, and Obama inviting Cao to the WH yesterday tells me that they aren’t close enough for comfort.

It’s interesting that the vote has been pushed back to 2:00 from noon on Sunday. Now they’re saying that the actual vote might not take place until early Monday morning.

Again, thank you SO MUCH for all of your hard work on this – it has been greatly appreciated by more people than you could possibly know…

and they said he is a NO

A “signed statement” from the Senate is meaningless and not worth the paper it’s printed on. It’s non-binding and all the Senate will do later (after their bill is law) is say “too bad, so sad.” with appropriate crocodile tears.

I was thinking it was a done deal after that vote yesterday for the “deem-and-pass” rule, but I saw some of those Democrats were confirmed no votes. I really do think too many are in the “undecided” column to make a judgment, and it now appears about as many seem to be going in one direction as in the other.

I’ll admit the talk of the various “backup plans” with state legislatures and courts and especially future elections is discouraging, so I think it best to not focus on those things right now.

…will include many of the final goodies to get their votes.
Why are Republicans not making more of this fact?
When will the American people learn of the backroom deals that this amendment will formalize?
Hoyer says early votes on Monday are possible. Does that mean the vote may slip until then?

First Bobby Rush, then Peter DiFazio. Earl Pomeroy with a sweetheart deal, Bart Gordon, a few others I can’t think of but I know Malkin highlighted them earlier.

There is a very noticeable pattern here. Every UNDECIDED Dem might be holding out for a handout from Pelosi. She is going to have to BUY all of them. All these congressmen are seeing these sweet deals and they want a piece of the pie too. And the GOP Senate is taking notes of all this and is going to use it to nuke any House member who got bought as Coburn alluded to yesterday. This looks like she is in a corner.

n/t

Paul Ryan @ NRO

“It’s a coin toss,” says Rep. Paul Ryan (R., Wis.) to National Review Online. “We were just on the floor going through whip-check. They still aren’t there yet. It’s narrowed down, from what we can tell, to four or five. Obviously, the numbers favor them, if you compare the pool of undecided votes to how many they need to come over. They only need about 50 percent of the remaining undecideds to break their way. On our side, we need seven votes to defeat this. At this point, we’re really only talking about a handful of votes. It’s such a close situation, and very, very fluid. They don’t want to win by just one vote — with everyone cast as the tiebreaking vote — they want to win by two or three votes. That’ll be hard to do, as will muscling votes in these final hours, since everyone is watching.”

We are not cooked. But this is no time to kick back.

I’m not in their districts, but I just talked to Joe Donnelly’s office in DC and Brad Ellsworth’s office in Terre Haute. I expressed my opinion, and mentioned Ellsworth’s “Your Share of the National Debt” on his website, and how this healthcare bill will make that skyrocket.

To their credit, the staffers were polite and said they are keeping a tally of out-of-district opinions, and forward them to the congressmen at the end of the day.

Any inside scoop on how this works? Are these guys minds made up? Do these comments really sway them, or are they strongarmed by Pelosi??

I talked to Baron Hill’s office a couple days ago. Any new on him?

The most depressing thing is that I have to turn to three DEMOCRAT CONGRESSMEN for HELP.

I’m not in their districts, but I just talked to Joe Donnelly’s office in DC and Brad Ellsworth’s office in Terre Haute. I expressed my opinion, and mentioned Ellsworth’s “Your Share of the National Debt” on his website, and how this healthcare bill will make that skyrocket.

To their credit, the staffers were polite and said they are keeping a tally of out-of-district opinions, and forward them to the congressmen at the end of the day.

Any inside scoop on how this works? Are these guys minds made up? Do these comments really sway them, or are they strongarmed by Pelosi??

I talked to Baron Hill’s office a couple days ago. Any new on him?

The most depressing thing is that I have to turn to three DEMOCRAT CONGRESSMEN for HELP.

this weekend. I happened to call Arcuri’s office 15 minutes after he announced he was a definite “no” yesterday. HIs staffer was obviously thrilled to give me the news. We’re wearing them down. Keep it up.

Leaning yes, according to National Review Online.

Call him and thank him for showing courage. He’s not a confirmed no, but some positive reinforcement couldnt hurt.

is cutting deals with the Stupak block. If she can get the Stupak block on board, kiss this fight goodbye.

I think it is going to be tough to do though. How can Stupak get assurances that the Senate will pass any separate legislation restricting abortion as much as he wants it?

http://news.firedoglake.com/2010/03/19/endgame-deal-with-stupak-bloc-discussed-that-would-guarantee-passage-of-health-care-bill/

On National Review.

That’s a relief after his vote yesterday.

Link here…

http://kdka.com/politics/Jason.Altmire.healthcare.2.1575875.html

H/t The Corner

Nt

Boyd, Cuellar, Kaptur, Courtney, Wilson (OH) ALL voting Yes.

Although Boyd appears to be the only no to yes switch among the group.

Still, this is not helpful.

Just curious.

………

Its not enough to be negative and just threaten people. These two are getting leaned on BIG TIME and are still holding out.

They are huge and they are getting ravaged by netroots, unions and the left.

You need positive reinforcement to complement negative reinforcement. Tell them thank you and that you respect their courage. Who cares if they are Dems for now.

We are so close. These two could seal it.

http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/health-care/breaking-ellsworth-to-vote-yes/

If you can still stand to make calls:

PLEASE CALL! DC OFFICE LOCAL OFFICE State Disctrict
Harry Mitchell (202) 225-2190 (480) 946-2411 AZ 05
Ann Kirkpatrick (202) 225-2315 (928) 226-6914 AZ 11
Jerry McNerney (202) 225-4060 925-833-0643 CA 11
John Salazar (202)-225-4761 970-245-7107 CO 3
Jim Hines (202) 225-5541 (866) 453-0028 CT 4
Alan Grayson (202) 225-2176 (407) 841-1757 FL 8
Bill Foster (202) 225-2976 630-406-1145 IL 14
Baron Hill (202) 225 5315 (812) 288 3999 IN 09
Mark Schauer (202) 225-6276 (517) 780-9075 MI 07
Gary Peters (202) 225-5802 (248) 273-4227 MI 09
Dina Titus (202) 225-3252 (702)-256-DINA (3462) NV 3
Carol Shea-Porter (202) 225-5456 (603) 743-4813 NH 1
Tim Bishop (202) 225-3826 (631) 696-6500 NY 1
John Hall (202) 225-5441 (845) 225-3641 x49371 NY 19
Bill Owens (202) 225- 4611 (315) 782-3150 NY 23
Dan Maffei (202) 225-3701 (315) 423-5657 NY 25
Earl Pomeroy (202) 225-2611 (701) 224-0355 ND AT Large
Steven Driehaus (202) 225-2216 (513) 684-2723 OH 1
Mary Jo Kilroy (202) 225-2015 (614) 294-2196 OH 15
Zach Space (202) 225-6265 (330) 364-4300 OH 18
Kathy Dahlkemper (202) 225-5406 (814) 456-2038 PA 03
Patrick Murphy (202) 225-4276 (215) 826-1963 PA 8
Christopher Carney (202) 225-3731 (570) 585-9988 OH 18
Paul Kanjorski (202) 225-6511 (570) 825-2200 PA 11
John Spratt (202) 225-5501 (803)327-1114 SC 05
Tom Perriello (202) 225-4711 (276) 656-2291 VA 05
Alan Mollohan (202) 225-4172 (304) 623-4422 WV 11
Nick Rahall (202) 225-3452 (304) 252-5000 WV 03
Steve Kagen (202) 225-5665 (920) 437-1954 WI 08
Jim Matheson (202) 225-3011 (801) 486-1236 UT 02
Alan Boyd (202) 225-5235 (850) 561-3979 FL 2

Tell your Congressman you OPPOSE the Obamacare Plan and that they must vote AGAINST it!

Is he ready to back down from his confident prediction of failure?

On the heals of Ellsworth and Boyd. Now Kosmos

Blue Dogs all punked out.

It the Pro-Life Dems and strangely, Dems, from Blue states holding this together. We had strange luck in the NE, maybe a few suprises in the NW?

Call and thank Arcuri, Adler, Altmire.

Thank DeFazio

Call the Stupak Cahtolics.

Call Zack Space.

Call Melissa Bean.

Call Scott Murphy

Call Carney
…

There’s only a handfull left. Need to keep our guys and grab a couple more.

“Appears Pelosi is going to use the “deemed” passed procedure..this means the vote on the rule will automatically “deem” the senate bill passed(without a debate or vote on its merit),& then the house will vote on changes the House Dems want the Senate Dems to accept.Senate Dems will not likely accept, so…..the Senate passed health bill will likely be the law, even tho it was never voted on in the House. Thats wrong”

Per his Facebook page:

http://www.facebook.com/#!/profile.php?id=1340283369&ref=ts

Best chart I’ve seen in a while.

209 solid NOs

212 with Cao, Nye and Berry

(213 w/ DeFazio who is not on their list)

Need five of the following:

More Likely in my opinion:

Baird
Matheson
Teague
Space
Dahlkemper
Bean
Rahall
Pomeroy
Kaptur
Carney

Less Likely:

Tanner
Foster
Kanjorski
Michaud
Mitchell
Ortiz
Mollohan
Owens

And there are some unknown wildcards out there like Capuano and Smith.

Doesnt include Rush or Watt.

Periello and Cuellar are considered firm “yeahs” but might weasel out if they cant get confirmation from the Senate.

I think that about right, may be one or two off.

God bless that man!! Gives me encouragement for the fight coming this weekend

My guess. Stupak want to vote “yes”. Just needs some kind of bogus window dressing resolution or something so he can say, “look what I got by standing on principle”.

Then, he’ll cave and Obama will claim an overwhelming mandate (in a deem and pass maneuver).

I think we all knew, the minute Scott Brown won his Senate seat, that the Dems would just force the House to pass the Senate bill unchanged.

medicare re-imbursal rates to be fixed. He’s not going to change on that. If they fix the rates, it will push the bill over 1 trillion dollars, which would knock other likely yes’es to no.
His state is being ‘punished’ for keeping healthcare costs low, by paying the lowest rate for for services. The Louisiana Purchase is pee-ing him off. He won’t change to a yes.

http://blog.oregonlive.com/mapesonpolitics/2010/03/defazio_threatens_no_vote_on_h.html

have a press conference scheduled tomorrow at 10:00 a.m.

A bad sign? He said he would not accept a promise of future action. Furthermore, how could pro-choice house Dems support a third pro-life bill? How could Stupak get a guarantee the Senate will move on a bill? He cannot use the nuns for cover because he already publically dismissed that and said he sides with the bishops. So I am sceptical. Of course, he could be caving and knows the senate will not support anything he tries to do and is just looking for a cover.

Who knows.

Of all the Dems, he’s the only one who’s shown some spine. I have to imagine Nancy doesn’t go there unless it’s her absolute last choice, and there’s still no guarantee Stupak listens. That she’s even talking to him again is a sign of how poor off they are.

Even if he does cave, you have to consider the possibility of a revolution from the pro-abortion folks, and there’s a lot more abortionist Dems than Stupak Dems, even 5% of them could probably sink this pig.

the one with the bracelets or the pointy feet. Hard to tell. Maybe its my computer.

Sir, the fight continues. As of 9:00 a.m. this morning, we captured, and have held since, the opposition’s supply of Perrier and Grey Poupon. However, we are now surrounded. Please send word soon of the battle beyond this squirmish. We will do our best to hold our position.

By the way, we are now consuming the Perrier and Grey Poupon. Por que? Because we can.

Viva Freedom.

reached.

http://twitter.com/mollyhooper

I have no idea how reliable this is, but Stupak does have a press conference tomorrow.

http://news.firedoglake.com/2010/03/19/harry-mitchell-to-vote-yes-on-health-care-202-209-208-214-with-leaners/

It’s a lefty site, but they’ve been trying to kill the bill since they lost the public option.

Remember, 216 is the magic number for either side … if we’re really at 214, you have to be looking at Jim Matheson in that R+15 district and Earl Pomeroy in an R+10 (this is the guy who went off on how they needed to stop working on health care or they might as well all retire instead of run for re-election about two months ago)

Stupak says “there was no agreement.”

http://twitter.com/EvanGlassCNN/status/10745638222

Folks, this is not over. As someone already said, they are trying to create the image of momentum. They are still 5-7 votes short. Your tenacious work is having an impact! Continue to, as the Captain of the USS John F. Kennedy aircraft carrier said to his officers and crew, as they were just pulling into range of Afghanistan in the aftermath of September 11th, “Now they will feel the power of the Kennedy; we will strike, and strike hard!” So, continue to “Strike” and “Strike Hard!” We are Americans; and like our great soldiers, sailors, airmen, coast guardsmen, and United States Marines, our colors do not run! We do not give up the fight! So Strike, and strike again! In battle we are always on the offensive. They are visting war on our Constitution. It is war they shall have. Strike hard!

if at all possible. Those of you in close proximity please make every sacrifice to attend, as there is power in large numbers showing up. Here are the details:

http://www.teapartypatriots.org/support.aspx

What if a massive “PUSH BACK” demonstration were planned to give vent to the absolute fury of the american people If this thing passes . not in washington but in every town city or parish and this time organize with the tea party the republicans the libertarians EVERYONE who opposes this . ITS WIN WIN wavering dems would be quaking in their boots and might just vote no . and if heaven forbid the bill passes everyone gets a chance to vent their anger . The MSM will try to ignore but local media will not be able to and local media is what people actually watch most times . the result would rip the guts out of every incumbant DEMONRAT bar none

This is it, folks. If she can’t get the Stupak bloc, the next “No” wins it.

… and Peter DeFazio has already said he’ll vote “No” — but everyone seems to think he’s just posturing.

I have posted this on two other discussions as I think it is great news for our side and I am not seeing it being reported other than the American Spectator, but thanks to Paul Ryan the CBO does come forward and admit that HCR will increase the deficit. This needs to get some serious play and will hopefully push a few on the fence to the ‘No’ column.

Responding to an inquiry from Rep. Paul Ryan, the Congressional Budget Office has confirmed that when you remove certain accounting gimmicks from the Democrats’ health care legislation, it actually increases the deficit.

Democrats have touted a CBO report that found that their health care bill would reduce the deficit by $138 billion from 2010 to 2019. But that number assumes that hundreds of billions of dollars in Medicare cuts would be used to pay for the new health care entitlement. In a letter to Ryan, the CBO estimates that if the Medicare cuts were used to help shore up the effectively bankrupt Medicare trust fund instead, then the Democrats health care bill would run $260 billion in deficits over the next decade.

In an earlier version of the House bill, Democrats included a measure to avoid scheduled cuts in doctors’ payments under Medicare. They removed the measure when they couldn’t get the numbers to add up, but they have continued to pass temporary delays of the cuts and have vowed to tackle the issue separately from the current health care bill. In the letter, CBO projects that if the so-called “doc fix” were added to the legislation, it would produce deficits of $59 billion from 2010 to 2019.

Earlier CBO estimates also asume that future lawmakers would actually enact some of the unpopular measures, such as the Medicare cuts and the “Cadillac tax.” These are crucial to Democrats’ claims that the bill will reduce deficits even more — by $1.2 trillion — in the second decade. But in the letter, the CBO says that without the changes, deficits would actually increase — by a quarter of a percent of GDP, or $600 billion — in the second decade.

Liberals have tried to portrat any criticism of the Democrats’ deficit reduction claims as an attack on the integrity of the CBO itself. But as this letter demonstrates, this isn’t about attacking the CBO. It’s just simply acknowledging that CBO analysis can vary greatly based on the questions you ask them. And clearly, Democrats kept tweaking the language until they were able to get the CBO score they wanted.

Good Lord.

The Democrats are actually playing out the Lucy/Charlie Brown/Football scenario, aren’t they?

http://www.politico.com/livepulse/0310/Reid_to_release_letter__without_signatories.html

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) will release the contents – but not the signatories – of a letter Saturday aimed at reassuring House members that the Senate will act on the reconciliation bill.

The letter has caused some hand-wringing among Democratic senators in recent days, not so much because they don’t support the bill – although skeptical House members would disagree – but senators are notoriously reluctant to publicly commit to something before they absolutely must. Senators like to preserve their leverage.

But a binding commitment is exactly what House Democrats have sought.

Now see what I was referring to with Lucy, Charlie Brown and the football in this transcribed scene below:

Lucy: Say Charlie Brown, I’ve got a football. How about practicing a few placekicks? I’ll hold the ball, and you come running and kick it.

Charlie Brown: Oh brother. I don’t mind your dishonesty, half as much as I mind your opinion of me. You must think I am stupid [to fall for this gag again].

Lucy: Oh, come on Charlie Brown.

Charlie Brown: No.

Lucy: I’ll hold it steady.

Charlie Brown: No.

Lucy: Please!

Charlie Brown: You just want me to come running up to kick that ball so you can pull it away and see me lying flat on my back and kill myself.

Lucy: This time you can trust me. See, here is a signed document testifying that I promise not to pull it away.

Charlie Brown: It is signed! It’s a signed document. I guess if you have a signed document in your possession, you can’t go wrong. This year I am really going to kick that football.

[runs up to kick the ball, but Lucy pulls it away and he falls flat on his back]. AARG!

Lucy: Peculiar thing about this document–it was never notarized.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTUy_mlpgy4

So go ahead House Democrats! Kick that reconciliation football. They won’t pull it away at the last second. Honest! They’ve go a letter to prove it!

At least in Charlie Brown’s case, he had a signed letter. The House Dems don’t even get that.

on Sunday, does that mean the House cannot take up the Senate Bill again, or since they did not really vote on the Senate Bill, it technically has not been voted on? This might be a moot point politically, but it could be important.

Also, once Sunday passes and no vote is held, can the GOP get 20% of the House (I think that’s the rule) and demand a vote on the bill?

http://firedoglake.com/2010/03/19/stupak-abortion-language-to-be-substituted-for-senate-language-in-deal-to-secure-health-care-votes/

gives more details of the Stupak compromise.

http://firedoglake.com/2010/03/19/stupak-abortion-language-to-be-substituted-for-senate-language-in-deal-to-secure-health-care-votes/

I have to start practicing my outraged feminist writing style. Stoke anger on the Left. Get to get a few of those nut jobs to bail now. Drive a deep wedge between Stupak Block and the Feminists, so there is no compromise, at least not until Easter Recess.

I’ve wanted to say this for a while.

In my opinion, it was a mistake for Jim DeMint to tell Republicans publicly that causing the Democrats to fail at health care reform would be Obama’s Waterloo. I know he’s popular on this site, but to me, that one remark just increased Obama’s determination to prove him wrong. Plus it made the Republicans look obstructionist just for the sake of taking Obama down. The goal should be to appear reasonable, not destructive. I wonder if he ever regretted saying that.