ObamaCare will Fail in the House Next Week, if they Vote — UPDATED


They announced they are planning to have a vote next week, but the Speaker is still looking for “certain assurances” from the U.S. Senate.

They do not have the votes to pass it. Here is the latest from The Hill newspaper’s Whip Count:

Thirty-four House Democrats are either firm no votes or leaning no, according to The Hill’s whip list. Dozens more are undecided.

The list of Democratic members who haven’t committed ranges widely, from liberal Reps. Michael Capuano (Mass.) and Anthony Weiner (N.Y.) to centrist Reps. Jason Altmire (Pa.) and Chris Carney (Pa.).

Two committee chairmen — Reps. Ike Skelton (D-Mo.) and Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) — say they are firm nos and three others, Reps. John Spratt (D-S.C.), Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.) and Jim Oberstar (D-Minn.), are undecided.

If every House member votes and all Republicans reject the bill as expected, Pelosi can only afford 37 Democratic defections.

They think they will find the votes, despite the fact CBO says to finance the cost of ObamaCare the U.S. will have to borrow 39 cents of every dollar spent on ObamaCare.

We must work to prevent them from finding the votes.

And they will not find the votes.

ObamaCare will fail in the House next week.

(Posting this from an AirTran coach seat, at an altitude of 32,000 feet.)


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Thanks Dan!

Maelstrom (Diary) Saturday, March 13th at 9:15PM EST (link)

You are one committed patriot – posting from 32,000 feet up! In my diary “Slaughter: Prevention”, I too was trying to rally the troops to kill Obamacare. I was trying to shine a light on the despicable process of the “Slaughter Solution”. However we accomplish it, Obamacare must not pass! Thanks again for your steadfastness on this issue!

I find your lack of faith….disturbing.
-Vader

Yeah Dan!

cari Saturday, March 13th at 11:06PM EST (link)

Thanks for posting today. (You were being paged earlier on Brian Darling’s thread.)

Once again, Hugh Hewitt has a great post at his website about how and who to contact in the House, dated Friday, March 12.

http://hughhewitt.com/blog/

A quick question: each time Pelosi has called for a vote, she has had the votes in hand. Do you think she’ll actually bring a vote to the floor if she doesn’t have the votes, or will she back down? I just can’t see her willing to be publicly defeated- but maybe that’s the only way to get Obama to move on to something else…?

cari, they won't bring it up for a vote if they don't HAVE the votes

peg_c (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 7:32AM EST (link)

I am convinced of this. This is why this endless talk about “an up or down vote” is so fake and a con. They will never allow a down vote.

Government cannot be the solution when government is the problem.

 
 

Dan, You May Be Right

GJ Merits (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 12:40AM EST (link)

I am hearing from Senate insiders that the way to kill this is for the Senate GOP to shut down the Senate on all legislation until the Easter break until Reid agrees to drop ObamaCare until the next session. This is coming from a highly reliable source:

http://tinyurl.com/yleyj7k

I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence, the money of their constituents….James Madison

If you want to go fast – go alone. If you want to go far – go together.

To win against tyranny you must embrace not only novel solutions, but fear of the unknown as well.

 

Your post is great

Dan Perrin (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 12:00PM EST (link)

and this must become a key exhibit in the Dems corruption of the process in their attempt to cram down ObamaCare

 
 

Thanks, Dan

nys_eric Saturday, March 13th at 9:17PM EST (link)

Others have said it before, so I’ll just say it again here. You are the only reason I’ve gotten any sleep in the last several weeks. Every time passage starts to look inevitable and unstoppable, you give us all the boost we need to continue the fight.

I’ve just called my congressman’s offices (Scott Murphy – NY), left him another e-mail, and then called 8 of the ‘Stupak 12′ trying to leave them some encouragement to hold strong. Not sure what else I can do. Thanks again for the boost you provide.

Ditto. Thanks for all that you do to calm our fears.

Teresa in Fort Worth, TX (Diary) Saturday, March 13th at 10:04PM EST (link)

And thank you SO MUCH for doing it from so far up in the air – that means so much to us!

Fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be a bumpy ride…..

 

That's great

Dan Perrin (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 12:01PM EST (link)

and really important work.

Especially call the NO votes to thank them.

:)

 
 

Don't you think they'll find a way to strip...

larryp Saturday, March 13th at 9:19PM EST (link)

or kind of gut the Senate bill and pass a shell of a bill and fill it with administrative nun-chuks later? Kind of submarine the issue. Save Face,They are lying about virtually everything anyway so they will just declare victory and move on.
This ties in to the Daschle plan that I heard sketched an idea that Hillary care failed because the American people knew too much about it.

the biggest problem for the dems is not the policy

Dan Perrin (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 12:04PM EST (link)

or the rules which they break or ignore or both, it is the political cement on ObamaCare care has already set, and the public hates it, and independent voters and seniors do too, which means that it doesn’t really matter what plan or policies they create, it’s a loser and voting against it is a done deal, for what ever the reason.

 
 

Can anyone give us an update on whether they'll be able to pass it...

smagar (Diary) Saturday, March 13th at 9:23PM EST (link)

through Slaughter Rule, or some other trick?

There’s lots of chatter in the MSM and blogosphere, but it’s hard to get a clear understanding of whether there’s a real chance of the Dems actually getting this bill through Congress, by hook or crook or whatever. Or, are they just bluffing?

“Who will stand/On either hand/And guard this bridge with me?” (Macaulay)

Darling has the best take on it

Dan Perrin (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 12:30PM EST (link)

and the reason it is all unclear is that they are in uncharted territory, no one knows what is really going to happen or how, or if

 
 

How do I spell relief?: D-A-N--P-E-R-R-I-N

SoFiMil (Diary) Saturday, March 13th at 9:34PM EST (link)

Thanks for the encouraging update, Dan. I’ll continue to make phone calls, take nothing for granted, and make sure we’re heard. You sure earned your wings tonight.

www.suvstrategery.blogspot.com

Thanks

Dan Perrin (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 12:04PM EST (link)

Gibbs and Axelrod are saying they have the votes.

Really?

OK, let’s vote Monday then.

 
 

Put Them On The Spot

OccamsRazor (Diary) Saturday, March 13th at 9:37PM EST (link)

Let The World KNOW YOU are AWARE of what is happening and this ideological crusade is dead for generations to come.

And We’ll Win This Thing. Victory (Maybe Forever) Is Within Week a Way.

Call. Call. Call….Call.

Yep

Dan Perrin (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 12:05PM EST (link)

They are being told to walk the plank, again.

But they do not have to.

Not if they do not want to.

And they shouldn’t.

 
 

t

OccamsRazor (Diary) Saturday, March 13th at 9:41PM EST (link)

All of you loud mouthed thinkers, all of you arm chaired warriors, and all of you who are one of RedState, get on the horn and make this week HAPPEN.

Time to go WEAPONS FREE

Dan Perrin (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 12:06PM EST (link)
 

Dan, important question

ehud (Diary) Saturday, March 13th at 9:44PM EST (link)

I haven’t heard anybody answer this seemingly very important question:

If the Senate can’t do a reconciliation bill based on the Senate bill until the Senate bill is signed by the president, then how can the house do a reconciliation bill on the senate bill before passing the senate bill?

Because as I understand it, it sounds like they want to vote on a reconciliation bill that includes the ‘slaughter rule’ to pass the senate bill. Which would mean they’re voting on a bill that modifies a non-existent bill.

Ryan/? 2012

Answer

OccamsRazor (Diary) Saturday, March 13th at 9:53PM EST (link)

Mob Rule (right or wrong).

 

It'

writeblock Saturday, March 13th at 9:57PM EST (link)

They’re trying to do two impossible things at once: amend the Senate bill as though it were a law that has already been passed; and change the Senate bill while at the same time claim they’re not changing it.

2 things

ehud (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 12:29AM EST (link)

1. Can’t the parliamentarian disallow this? I know the Senate parliamentarian ruled, but does that not apply to the house? What does the house parliamentarian say?

2. Practically speaking, what is the difference between what they’re doing (reconciliation modifying a bill ‘deemed’ to have passed) and amending the Senate bill? If they amended the Senate bill, the ENTIRE bill would have to go back to the Senate, subject to filibuster, etc.

Ryan/? 2012

 
 

ehud

Dan Perrin (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 12:32PM EST (link)

Your understanding is correct.

It is why Pelosi’s “most ethical Congress in history” is going to be crammed down her throat in November.

 
 

I hope and pray you're right

frankieb (Diary) Saturday, March 13th at 10:16PM EST (link)

But just in case, I too have called and written. Uselessly, perhaps, because I’m calling and writing McCaskill and Cleaver. I’m doing it, though, because I feel the weight of future generations pressing down on me.

And isn’t this just all the craziest stuff you’ve ever heard – bill, no bill, reconciliation, slaughter rule, ad nauseum?

Books … the most exotic, least expensive vacation: www.DelphiBooks.us

www.DaughterOfTheGreatDepression.blogspot.com

Claire McCaskill goes in so many directions, it’s amazing she hasn’t drawn and quartered herself. www.TruthAboutClaire.com

stop it

petersaint (Diary) Saturday, March 13th at 10:53PM EST (link)

As a former moderate democrat (what I thought was a moderate democrat, turns out to be basic Republican)for the forseeable future will not vote democratic, even for a dogcatcher. I could not trust them to do the right thing. I feel like I’m back in junior high where the school safety patrols have gone mad with power. Stop this by any means necessary!

the safety patrollers were always annoying and irritating

Dan Perrin (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 12:33PM EST (link)

Now, in the form of ObamaCare, they are really dangerous

 
 
 

Are any governors speaking out?

DerKrieger (Diary) Saturday, March 13th at 10:42PM EST (link)

38 states have or will pass legislation nullifying Obamacare. 10th Amendment activity is heating up. So, what are the nation’s governors saying? Several GOP governors have been open about states rights so why aren’t they saying that their states will ignore any unconstitutional laws passed by Congress? The states will ultimately prevail and if enough states tell the Democrats to go pound sand Obamacare, and maybe the welfare state edifice, will collapse due to lack of participation.

“In questions of power, let no more be heard of confidence in man, but bind him down from mischief by the chains of the Constitution.” – Thomas Jefferson

“I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence, the money of their constituents.” – James Madison

Whenever the legislators endeavor to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience.” — John Locke, 1690

Agreed

Kayla Sunday, March 14th at 1:04AM EST (link)

I was also wandering about the Republican governors too. Why don’t they speak out and declare they will fight this mandate in the Supreme Court. If Gov. Perry of Tx ran against the healthcare mandate he would win in a landslide. And if a big state like Tx does not participate, that would put more of burden on the blue states who want a hand out.

 

Governors banding together would be a strong preemptive strike to obamaocare. Nt

Common_Cents (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 10:22AM EST (link)

Obama=Golfer in Chief, Leading from, behind, the Back Nine.
Leaders don’t create movements. Movements create leaders. Get involved. Your future depends on it.
Govt “invests” YOUR tax money for POLITICAL return rather than economic return.

 

Last time Senator Nelson used his Governor's concerns

Dan Perrin (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 12:34PM EST (link)

to justify his YES vote.

Be careful what you wish for.

 

Governors don't matter

Menlo (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 1:41PM EST (link)

It’s the legislatures that are responsible.

It’s obvious from the comments above that Kayla is not very familiar with the Texas legislature because the governor, a figurehead, doesn’t set the agenda of the liberal RINOs like Straus and Solomons who control it. They let nuts like Jessica Farrar and Senfronia Thompson have a greater say.

You have as much chance in Texas as you have in Massachusetts or Vermont. There are many other states whose legislatures are in a much better position.

“The ultimate touchstone of constitutionality is the Constitution itself and not what we have said about it.” -Felix Frankfurter

 
 

A reminder...

writeblock Saturday, March 13th at 10:59PM EST (link)

Right now the Dem leadership is trying to create a sense of momentum. So everything it says should be taken with a grain of salt.

Grain of salt indeed.

roscopico (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 12:40AM EST (link)

It is evident Madam Speaker has a proclivity toward exaggeration after months and months of claiming the entire shebang was a done deal. You’re on the money with your assessment, writeblock, in that they wish to coax other lemmings just a bit forward… pay no attention to that cliff.
This will be an interesting week; and our children will wonder about the path not taken?
The House Statists are looking to pass the Senate bill w/o voting on it? If there is indeed precedent, one can only assume it exists because the result was never challenged. If this comes to pass, let us hope the courts might save us for once.

I’ll keep my fingers crossed for my kids. And their kids.

Im Himmel gibt’s kein Bier…

They are trying to PSY-OP

Dan Perrin (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 12:35PM EST (link)

their own members.

They say they will have the votes but after a year, if they don’t have them by now, well…

 
 
 

from your keyboard . . .

joecollins (Diary) Saturday, March 13th at 11:01PM EST (link)

. . .to God’s ears! May it be so.

 

Question about Slaughter Rule.

Mary Beth (Diary) Saturday, March 13th at 11:26PM EST (link)

Is it something that people in the House will vote for or is this something they’re proposing to do in her committee and then the congresscritters will simply go with the flow and take advantage of what her committee is doing?

“A political party cannot be all things to all people. It must represent certain fundamental beliefs which must not be compromised to political expediency, or simply to swell its numbers.” ~ Ronald Reagan

It's not really a rule...

Neil Stevens (Diary) Saturday, March 13th at 11:33PM EST (link)

… so they can really do it any way they want. If the y do it I don’t think it’ll come up to a vote. The bill will just go to the President, and then they’ll start on the reconciliation bill.

RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules

Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.

“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder

Wow that's actually worse than I thought.

Mary Beth (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 12:25AM EST (link)

I figured there was at least some sort of official albeit entirely unconstitutional ruling or whatever…some sort of hearing. What you’re saying is that she simply has decided that this is the way it’s going to be and that’s that. Sheesh.

This actually brings up another question though. I thought that the Senate Parliamentarian said in no uncertain terms that there could be no fixes until the bill became law.

So how does this dual strategy help them? The Senate health care bill from December moves to the White House and their fixes go to the Senate, right?

Aren’t they still in the position of trusting the Senate to keep their word? And still…the Senate bill is law…the Senate won’t have time to deal with the House’s fixes as they move on to other pressing issues, the Senate bill will be law and we’re all up a creek. Is that about it or am I missing something else?

“A political party cannot be all things to all people. It must represent certain fundamental beliefs which must not be compromised to political expediency, or simply to swell its numbers.” ~ Ronald Reagan

Look at it this way

Neil Stevens (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 12:57AM EST (link)

When you’re tearing up the “how a bill becomes a law” part of the Constitution, there really aren’t any guard rails left.

RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules

Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.

“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder

I agree entirely...

Mary Beth (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 1:31AM EST (link)

… I’m just not sure how sending the newly passed law to the White House does anything to secure a guarantee that the Senate will do what they want with their fix list.

I mean wouldn’t the Senate make that hard pivot toward jobs and leave the House high and dry? I don’t see how this Slaughter finagling does anything to fix their key problem which is they don’t trust the Senate to fix the bill once it heads to Obama’s desk.

“A political party cannot be all things to all people. It must represent certain fundamental beliefs which must not be compromised to political expediency, or simply to swell its numbers.” ~ Ronald Reagan

 
 
 
 
 

Tell me if I'm way off base...

joffen Saturday, March 13th at 11:56PM EST (link)

…I have absolutely no idea how the Slaughter strategy would work, but if I had to guess, the House would “deem” the Senate bill passed only as a way to begin writing the reconciliation bill. That way they can vote on it quickly after they pass the Senate version. I hope to god they don’t pass it, of course, but regardless, I think that’s what the Slaughter strategy would be. Am I way off base?
As an aside, that witch Slaughter is actually my Congresswoman! I have no idea who is running against her, but I seriously hope she somehow gets booted out. I very much doubt it though. I can’t vote anyway…I’m Canadian and I can’t apply for citizenship until 2012!!! :(

Donate, then.

Christine (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 6:13AM EST (link)

Go to your local GOP meeting or contact them and find out who is running against her, then DONATE to that person. Volunteer too if you can.

The primary process is FLAWED. Two states should not decide our candidate.

“I would be a poor Commander in Chief”
– Barack Obama, July 3 2008

 
 

What "The Hill" Says

AndrewHyman (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 12:30AM EST (link)

Yep,

Dan Perrin (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 12:37PM EST (link)

Love this, and used it to update the post.

Thanks for sharing.

:)

 
 

I so hope you're right, Dan

Mike LaChance (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 4:06AM EST (link)

I think it was Krauthammer who said if they had the votes it would already be done.

Pelosi is trying to create an aura of support.

It’s no different than saying “Unicorns exist because we say they do.”

-Mike

Pretty much, that right

Dan Perrin (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 12:38PM EST (link)

They are wishing, wishing, wishing, wishing it to be so.

 
 

If they had the votes

Adjoran (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 4:56AM EST (link)

They would have passed it already, the minute the last vote was in Nancy’s pocket.

The whole debate over the “Slaughter Rule” strategy misses one point: it’s a special rule, and the House would have to vote to pass it. Nobody is going to be able to claim they didn’t know what they were voting for, no matter how it is structured.

Despite some positive recent data, the economic outlook for the summer is for a drop in GDP as a result of the huge tax increase caused by allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire. This probably means the unemployment rate either rises or at least doesn’t fall, leaving Obama vulnerable to the charge he neglected the economy to force health care down America’s throat.

The striking thing is the number of Democrats, both in House and Senate, who seem willing to risk their seats to perpetrate this travesty. Even Obama can’t guarantee them all a cushy federal job, not for longer than January of 2013. Are so many of them so committed to socialized medicine that they will give up their cushy and prestigious jobs to pass it?

And the focus on health care is the wrong

exidore (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 5:27AM EST (link)

priority- as the people were reminded in no uncertain terms by Sen Scott Brown R-MA yesterday.

They must just be caught up in the lemming stampede (or something like that). Using common sense arguments with them just doesn’t register. They know better, the rules don’t apply to them, the November 2010 elections will turn their way… etc.

Oh well, makes me feel badly for them NOT.

“Death smiles at everyone. Soldiers smile back.”

"the people"

lunarmanathome (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 12:32PM EST (link)

were not reminded by Scott Brown – the priority for the voter has been fairly consistent – “It’s the economy, stupid.”

He may have attempted to remind the poltical class….

 
 
 

As usual I'm not so confident that it's dead

bk (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 7:11AM EST (link)

1) We thought Brown’s election was a game-changer, when in fact this bunch of crooks has used that to make it EASIER to get it through the Senate. Now they have switched from:
“If we think we can’t get 60 votes again, we might have to look at bending the rules a little.”
to:
“We KNOW we can’t get 60 votes again, so we WILL make the rules up as we go.”
So there’s no doubt it will pass the Senate, regardless of whatever McConnell might do to stop it. Nelson, Bayh, Lincoln, Landrieu, and a couple others have a pass to vote nay this time.

2) There WILL be some votes that change from “nay” to “aye”, even though none have been stated. Someone like Kucinich can huff and puff all he wants, but he and the other liberals who voted against the original bill a) once it had the votes and b) knowing they’d get another chance will now be more realistic and know this is their last shot. I can’t see ANY liberal voting nay this time around. I haven’t run through the list to see how many fall into this category, but I can’t believe Kucinich was the only one. There must be a few others.

3) Has Brown’s election spooked anyone in the House? It’s hard to tell – a lot have gone from “aye” to “not sure”, but it could be that a large number of them are just afraid to say they are ayes until they get to the floor for the actual vote. Other than for abortion, I have a hard time seeing why someone who voted aye originally would vote nay now. If they’re liberal they’ll want “something” (i.e. “anything”) to pass; if they’re truly moderate they would have voted nay the first time and so also want something/anything to pass.

4) Supak’s block of 10-12 “was aye/now nay” votes is good news, and Pelosi blowing them off is better news (in a twisted way). Stupak has indicated he’d accept some sort of tie-in that prevented it from becoming law without the fixes, but without abortion language in there that becomes moot from his point of view. BUT the bad news is that from what I’ve read he’s only got 7 commitments so far. If true, then Pelosi only needs to swing a few blue dogs if the Kucinich types flip.

5) So even if Stupak holds, it comes down to the abortion-neutral blue dogs who voted nay the first time. What are the odds that a few of them will flip? They are going to be under unrelenting pressure and told that they can forget having any campaign cash this fall, so they might as well resign now if they are not going to vote aye. Will a few of them chicken out (as the House blue dogs often do)? I would think so. If Pelosi needed to get 10 or 15 it might be a much tougher call, but if she only needs 4-5 then I think it will happen.

6) This is all being rushed before the Easter break to keep the members away from their constituents (or more like the other way around). For the next week they’ll be hearing 90% in person from Pelosi, Obama, Stern, etc. in person, and 10% from staffers reporting about upset constituents. Pelosi won’t take any chance that they get back home where they might get mobbed and will have a chance to think clearly away from the din of Washington. Sure that’s a sign of desperation on her part, but she controls their lives for now and only needs to get a few to crack under that pressure.

I sure hope the third time is the charm, because you thought it had no chance to pass the House originally and no chance to pass the Senate originally. I’m sure you’d agree that if it makes it out of the House now it will pass the Senate, so this upcoming vote is the end of the game one way or another.

If it makes it out of the House

chipbennett (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 9:10AM EST (link)

If the bill makes it out of the house, it won’t have to “pass the Senate”. The bill has already passed the Senate. It’s the Senate bill.

If the bill passes in the House, it becomes law, because it will go immediately to the President’s desk, and he will sign it.

Pelosi knows that the Senate will drop the “reconciliation” talk the minute the House passes the bill, and Obama signs it.

The problem is, vulnerable House Democrats know this, which is why Pelosi is hemorrhaging Yes votes.

The Senate might approve the fixes if abortion is out

bk (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 9:18AM EST (link)

That will play out the string the rest of the way, give people like Lincoln a chance to say they voted against it after they voted for it, etc.

Either way, the Senate is no longer a place ti can get stopped and all that matters is the House vote.

The Catholic Church and the pro-lifers will

Dan Perrin (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 12:50PM EST (link)

weigh in and it will change the vote count in our favor.

The left wingers who voted yes with the public option cannot legitimately vote yes without both single payer and the public option.

The President is talking up immigration reform — talking, talking, talking — to calm the Hispanic Caucus, but will not give them the changes they want.

Then, there are those lurking in the weeds.

You say they will vote yes, I say they will vote No and they are not telling anyone because they do not need the pressure from the unions or the White House.

Even the delusional know that this is not a cost free vote and the costs of voting yes are just too high politically, despite whatever costs the unions or white house try and impose.

The campaign consultants and staff are now in the game, which is why the number of undecideds has spiked, not the stupid policy staff who parrot the Speaker and White House talking points.

Plus, there is the Charlie Cook factor — he is telling the moderate they are insane to vote for this.

I think the politics of survival trump the White House politics of delusion.

 
 
 

Nothing is a Forgone Conclusion; It Could Pass

Swamp_Yankee (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 12:41PM EST (link)

This could pass. It could not. I believe I heard Cantor or Ryan say they are down four votes, but there are dozen of more mushes. Some of them will be whipped. It will be tougher to whip them after Obama leaves, and nearly impossible if they make it home for recess without a vote.

Too many variables at play. All the more reason to stay focused and fight. Our noise machine has to be louder than theirs.

 

Pelosi had no more than ten votes in reserve...

writeblock Sunday, March 14th at 12:46PM EST (link)

…the last time around. We know this because she would never have accepted the Stupak amendment had she not needed his votes. She has lost three votes through death or resignations. Take away those three plus the seven solid Stupak votes and this leaves her with 210 plus whatever votes she may have had in reserve the last time around–before the MA earthquake. If they were less than ten, and if she has a good number of formerly yes votes who are in close elections, she has a big job ahead of her. It can be done–but it’ll be tough. If she uses the Slaughter rule, it will be a sure indication she couldn’t get the bill passed by normal means.

 
 

Keep Fighting the Good Fight

Sandy Salt Sunday, March 14th at 7:13AM EST (link)

We must continue to make our voice heard because if we do not then it will take decades to undo this travesty and waste trillions of our tax dollars setting up and then dismantling this behemoth. Keep the pressure on and keep burning up those phone lines and inboxes.

We need health care reform, but we don’t need this!!!

Angry Joes unite and turn this country around.

 

Thanks Dan for an uplifting diary on this Sunday morning....

JadedByPolitics (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 8:28AM EST (link)

I have been in a FUNK this past week while watching the SLEAZY goings on via Pelosi, Reid and Obama and to see that YOU still carry the FAITH that this thing is dead in the water based on a REAL vote means a lot to me and mine!

 

Defeating the Slaughter Trick

rsjt Sunday, March 14th at 10:50AM EST (link)

I have notified my rep that if the Slaughter Trick is not actively and agressively opposed I will aggressively work for their defeat in November for violating the oath of office.

I would recommend everyone do the same no matter the party or position of your representative.

Tell Your Member of Congress

Dan Perrin (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 12:39PM EST (link)

“If you stop playing by the rules and pull this Slaughter trick, we will stop playing by the rules too.”

It really is not fair if only one side is playing by the rules.

 
 

Dan, I always look forward to your well thought out diaries.

Danielle Davis (ocleverone) (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 12:27PM EST (link)

Thanks for keeping on top of this and thanks for explaining it so it is understandable.

To quote my 14 year old – “You rock”. :D

To me, “consensus” seems to be the process of abandoning all beliefs, principles, values and policies. So it is something in which no one believes and to which no one objects … There are still people in my party who believe in “consensus” politics. I regard them as Quislings, as traitors … I mean it. — Margaret Thatcher

 

It's a bit perplexing

Menlo (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 2:26PM EST (link)

I read that James Clyburn today openly said on TV they currently lack the votes but “will” get them in the next week. But then again, he also said he thinks Stupak will vote for it.

With all the sob stories, dealmaking, and rule-breaking that’s been going on, I’m terrified to imagine what’s left.

“The ultimate touchstone of constitutionality is the Constitution itself and not what we have said about it.” -Felix Frankfurter

 

thehill.com has 35 no votes now

avgjo (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 7:02PM EST (link)

What is it, 37 or 38 no needed to kill the thing?

Ceterum autem censeo, Obamaecuram esse delendam.

Actually thehill.com is at 35 "Firm No, Leaning No, Likely No"

mbecker908 (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 7:20PM EST (link)

And we need 38 D votes to defeat it, assuming all Rs vote NO.

You need to read the list and the comments, it appears that not all of the 35 are real NOs. I’d feel better if the number was in excess of 40.

i did

avgjo (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 7:43PM EST (link)

I have trouble believing anyone leaning no will be swayed.

Ceterum autem censeo, Obamaecuram esse delendam.

Pressure

proudgop (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 8:01PM EST (link)

The only Dems who will vote against this are the ones who are pressured on their re-election chances

it really is important we keep all Dems who are in tossup, lean republican, or slight dem districts on their toes

For i.e California filling date in 17th and if we don’t get top tier to Cardozza or Costa both will probably vote for bill.

I don't believe that's a consideration.

Menlo (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 8:49PM EST (link)

They know that their chances are the same either way. No one who is planning to either not vote or vote for someone else is going to change his or her mind and vote FOR the representative just because he or she flipped the last minute.

“The ultimate touchstone of constitutionality is the Constitution itself and not what we have said about it.” -Felix Frankfurter

I disagree---either one of two things is true

JSobieski (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 9:04PM EST (link)

(1) A lot of these “leaners” have actually already made up their mind and are just staying quiet about it OR
(2) They are susceptible to wide variety of different factors that can potentially influence their vote. Answering to their constituents has to be included as one of those factors, along with less impressive factors like willingness to have Pelosi hate them.

In many respects, “centrist” democrats are the biggest political whores in our democracy. How an elected official could at this late point not be a definite yes or a definite no is a sign that they don’t think like a typical blogger or commentator on this site.

We are more principled than they are. For every Bart Stupak, there are 5 Bob Nelsons.

My rules of the road for primary season.
Rule #1: Vote for YOUR first choice in the primaries
Rule #2: Vote for the R in the general.
Rule #3: Don’t let anyone convince you to violate Rule #1 or Rule #2
Rule #4: When in a center-right argument, reaffirm Rules #1-#3–it will help us all to get along better.
Rule #5: If you are using the language of the left, you probably aren’t furthering conservativism
Rule #6: The priority is issues first, candidates second, and supporters third. Nobody is bigger than the issues. Conversely, if you spend your time focusing on supporters, you are wasting everyone’s time.

STOP THE MADNESS!

A reduction in the rate of spending increases is NOT a cut!
In-state tuition for illegals is NOT amnesty!
Requiring someone to pay their medical bills is NOT an individual mandate!
Reducing tax rates is NOT a tax increase!

That doesn't change anything though.

Menlo (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 11:47PM EST (link)

They know what people are thinking. I’m sure they have seen the polls and know where things stand. They know as I do that people are not changing their votes in November based on this bill. The people who have an opinion on the bill already know whom they will be voting for.

“The ultimate touchstone of constitutionality is the Constitution itself and not what we have said about it.” -Felix Frankfurter

 
 

scared

proudgop (Diary) Monday, March 15th at 7:33AM EST (link)

if a congressman is not scared about losing in fall he will vote for the thing just to be on the good side of Pelosi and crew and expect better things in future

 
 
 

Its a safe bet that at least one "definite no" will vote yes, and one "definite yes" will vote no

JSobieski (Diary) Sunday, March 14th at 9:06PM EST (link)

These are Congresscritters, not family, friends, or a reliable pet.

My rules of the road for primary season.
Rule #1: Vote for YOUR first choice in the primaries
Rule #2: Vote for the R in the general.
Rule #3: Don’t let anyone convince you to violate Rule #1 or Rule #2
Rule #4: When in a center-right argument, reaffirm Rules #1-#3–it will help us all to get along better.
Rule #5: If you are using the language of the left, you probably aren’t furthering conservativism
Rule #6: The priority is issues first, candidates second, and supporters third. Nobody is bigger than the issues. Conversely, if you spend your time focusing on supporters, you are wasting everyone’s time.

STOP THE MADNESS!

A reduction in the rate of spending increases is NOT a cut!
In-state tuition for illegals is NOT amnesty!
Requiring someone to pay their medical bills is NOT an individual mandate!
Reducing tax rates is NOT a tax increase!