Political Instability and the Coming Defeat of ObamaCare

Monday, March 8th at 1:07PM EST

44 Comments

The media is now pulling out all the stops to help Obama win the House vote. They know he is in deep trouble and they need to help. And they will keep helping, reporting as if the vote is in the bag.

But do not fear. Jay Cost has the real house vote count. (Rep. Massa’s claims that he is the swing vote, notwithstanding.)

If you want to help, call the Members of Congress on Jay’s list, and follow it daily. Organize demonstrations in front of their offices. Put them on YouTube. Call them. Email them. Contribute money to their opponents. Seek out these Members of Congress in their districts. Button-hole them. Do not let up until the House votes. (Sorry Jay, your list is better than Minority Whip Cantor’s memo.)

There is more good news. Even former Majority Leader Senator Daschle, who has been the unseen hand pushing Obama on health care, says on video this is the end of the ObamaCare effort. After this, it is over.

By the way, ObamaCare did not die and rise back to life. It has been dead for a long time. The President, the Speaker, Axelrod and Plume keep insisting that it is alive because they live in a fantasyland bubble. (Don’t start living the dream too.) There is a view other than ObamaCare is dead or is alive. You could be like Hennessey: ObamaCare is both dead and alive. His piece is titled Health Care CPR, but in reality, Hennessey’s view is it is mostly dead.

The Speaker and the White House can not allow themselves to believe anything other than they will win, because they have developed the intellectual behavior of the politically irrational.

Look at this quote from fantasy-land-spinner-in-chief-David-Axelrod — the man the New York Times says is the last person the trillion dollar President talks to before making a decision:

“For me, the question is, why haven’t we broken through more than we have?” Mr. Axelrod said. “Why haven’t we broken through?”

Axelrod is asking the wrong question, obviously. The White House has broken through. It is just that the public is not buying what they are selling. The public knows what Obama and Speaker want. It is just that the public doesn’t want ObamaCare and are really pissed off that the Speaker and the White House can’t get that through their thick heads.

But the President’s number one advisor still thinks the public, if they just understood what they were selling, would support it. (The sinking polls for Obama obviously has nothing to do with ObamaCare.)

Then, mix in the Speaker’s irrational and unstable behavior on health care reform, and you have the makings of another health care train wreck. She is acting unstable. One day she insists the sky is yellow, then the next she says the sky is purple:

1) She said the House would not vote first. Now the House is voting first.

2) She said they could not pass the Senate bill in the House. Now she is forcing the House to pass the Senate bill.

3) She said they not and would not be a rubber stamp for the Senate. Now they must be a rubber stamp and pass the Senate bill without changing it.

4) She said she would force the Senate to prove they will act to change the bill before the House votes. Now she is not forcing the Senate to do anything to prove they will change the bill.

In fact, a growing number of House Members believe that if they pass the Senate bill unchanged, the President will sign it into law and then promptly announce they must move on to jobs, jobs, jobs.

Then, there will be no reconciliation effort. And the House Dems get hung out to dry again — voting for a health care bill they can not stomach, having to live with that vote, with no saving Senate bill to change the law.

Here is another Yes to No Vote, if the bill does not change.

Where is the mainstream media on the Speaker flip-flop story? No where. They missed it because they are too busy bootlicking ObamaCare, on their hands and knees.

And even as her flip-flops illustrate the Speaker’s irrationality, the MSM ignore it because they agree with the Speaker: they should and would do anything to pass ObamaCare. So political devastating changes in her strategy are ignored because doing anything in the name of passing ObamaCare is the right thing to do.

As has been the case for some time, the delusional and those lying to themselves and to the public are our real opponents.

They are also the ones that are trying to convince Members of Congress do political violence to themselves by voting for the unchanged Senate bill on the House floor.

And they have the complicity and full cooperation of the MSM.

But don’t worry. Keep fighting. Keep pounding the Cost whip count. They do not have the votes. If we keep hammering, they will not get the votes.

Members of Congress know that there is only one way to get on the right side of the public on this. Voting no will also to teach the Speaker and the White House a lesson for putting them through the meat grinder known as ObamaCare.

With defeat, the Speaker and the White House will be forced to listen next time, and the system will right itself because Members of Congress will have acted in their own political interest, something they should have been doing a long, long time ago. Just ask Rep. Pomeroy.

44 Comments Leave a comment

What would you

cari Monday, March 8th at 1:43PM EST (link)

suggest those of us who are represented by Republicans do to help stop this? Calling reps when you are not one of their voting constituents makes the staff angry.

Yeah. I am with you there.

earlgrey (Diary) Monday, March 8th at 2:47PM EST (link)

I keep sending $$ to the League of American voters, but I don’t know what else to do either. Thanks for your post. I feel your pain.

According to the SouthWest Regional Whip of the

Dan Perrin (Diary) Tuesday, March 9th at 8:10AM EST (link)

House, Rep. Cleaver, the Dems do not have the votes.

Some put the number at 201, which is about where Cost and I both have it.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2010/03/08/dem_congressman_obama_doesnt_have_the_votes_to_pass_health_care.html

Does that take into account the Stupak holdouts?

Teresa in Fort Worth, TX (Diary) Tuesday, March 9th at 8:34AM EST (link)

I know that there is some rumbling about a possible deal – I don’t see it happening, but I don’t know what the strategy is here with Stupak and Pelosi. Unless they get a bill passed FIRST that removes all funding for abortion from the current Senate bill, I can’t imagine the pro-lifers would be willing to vote for Obamacare.

If it were me, I would want a bill that had ALREADY gone through both houses of Congress AND been signed by Obama. I wouldn’t trust anyone who “promised” that they would do that after the Obamacare bill had been passed…..

Fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be a bumpy ride…..

Or those of us who have communists representing us...

stigmo Monday, March 8th at 2:59PM EST (link)

Calling Tammy Baldwin’s office might be somewhat amusing, but she’s never gonna vote no. Anything more constructive I can do in addition to calling her?

You can organize a demonstration in front of her office

Dan Perrin (Diary) Tuesday, March 9th at 8:11AM EST (link)

and put the clip on youtube.

I keep donating to

nancylee Monday, March 8th at 3:20PM EST (link)

the League of American Voters, signing petitions and donating to the House Conservatives Fund, as well as Reverse the Vote. My representative is Duncan D Hunter, who is a Republican, and my senators are Boxer and Feinstein, who aren’t listening, period, so there isn’t anything else I can do.

A well-written letter to the editor? nt

Ann_W (Diary) Monday, March 8th at 5:07PM EST (link)

“One of the great mistakes is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results.”
— Milton Friedman

The War on Poverty– forty-six years and counting!

Who cares if we anger them? Look what they're doing to us.

Corie Whalen (Diary) Monday, March 8th at 4:37PM EST (link)

I say, call anyway … and when they get nasty with you because you’re not in their district, remind them that the vote of the Representative in question still directly affects your life, and that if they vote yes on ObamaCare that you’ll be donating heavily to their opponent and encouraging others to do the same. Helps if you have the name of their opponent, too. Sounds like a more credible threat.

http://www.twitter.com/coriewhalen

Who cares if they are angry ?

Jonas Parker Monday, March 8th at 5:52PM EST (link)

Tell them you will send $$ to their opposition in the next election. They know people are doing that now, a lot. Much of the time they dont’ even ask where you are from, so they don’t know. I have called 15 different congressmen, and only about half have even asked where I live. I call them every day.

Call my congressman, Harry Mitchell (D-AZ-5) (202) 225-2190. Harry is a wimp and he will vote against the side he fears the least, but won’t decide until the moment he does it. My opinion is that if he votes for this (Pelosi let him vote no last year, he will not be re-elected. But I know he fears Pelosi greatly.

So, I Very Nearly, Almost, Care If They Hate Me.

Repair_Man_Jack (Diary) Monday, March 8th at 9:03PM EST (link)

But not quite….

” I side impenitently with the human race against the modern reformer.” – C.S. Lewis

Call anyway

Dan Perrin (Diary) Tuesday, March 9th at 8:08AM EST (link)

n/t

What gets me

revolutionary Monday, March 8th at 1:51PM EST (link)

is the spin they put on the public’s unhappiness with this piece of trash. First the Charlatain-in -Chief insults our intelligence by saying the we must not have understood. He apologized for not explaining it correctly. Wha…???? Does he really think we are all THAT stupid? We have actually read that monstrosity and we didn’t like what it said…Duh How hard is that? Then he goes to the summit and claims we are angry because we have been given false information as to what this bill is all about. Again Wha…? I refer back to the whole “we read the dumb thing!” And if the Dems in the House think the Dems in the Senate won’t let them commit political suicide to pass this thing, they are truly naive. The Senate Dems will start the blame game to save their own necks before the ink is dry! They have no intention to “fix” the Obamacare scam bill once its passed. This oughta be fun to watch! Pass the popcorn!

-For in reason, all government without the consent of the governed is the very definition of slavery.
Jonathan Swift-

-Majority rule only works if you’re also considering individual rights. Because you can’t have five wolves and one sheep voting on what to have for supper.
Larry Flynt-

-I had reasoned this out in my mind, there was one of two things I had a right to, liberty or death; if I could not have one, I would have the other.
Harriet Tubman-

Unfortunately,

nancylee Monday, March 8th at 3:23PM EST (link)

it might be amusing to watch the Dems covering their butts, in the end this thing will be catastrophic for us. Do whatever you can to convince House Democrats to vote against the bill. It will save us a whole lot of grief.

It will not pass

Dan Perrin (Diary) Tuesday, March 9th at 8:13AM EST (link)

in the House, and then it will die.

Jay Cost's "whip count" is very hard to understand

Mayhem (Diary) Monday, March 8th at 2:01PM EST (link)

But what I can gather is that there are probably only 200-205 yes votes as of right now. Is that a reasonable guestimate?

James Madison, Jim DeMint, Margaret Thatcher, Ronald Reagan… You get the picture.

I heard Rush say,

nancylee Monday, March 8th at 3:25PM EST (link)

a little while ago, that Pelosi hasn’t been able to get to 200 votes yet. Keep working to make sure that it stays that way.

Rush thinks Stupak will cave.

earlgrey (Diary) Monday, March 8th at 5:47PM EST (link)

We all thought Ben Nelson would save us, and look what happened there? Anyone hear how Stupak’s town hall went today.

I don't think Stupak will cave

Dan Perrin (Diary) Tuesday, March 9th at 8:14AM EST (link)

Senator Nelson is now wearing Kevlar in NE and has been since his vote on ObamaCare.

His wife’s social life in NE was destroyed by Nelson’s vote.

How can we get that information out to other people so that they can tell their representative what to expect?

Teresa in Fort Worth, TX (Diary) Tuesday, March 9th at 8:39AM EST (link)

It seems to me that if they are made aware of what a “Yes” vote will mean for them “back home”, they might be more inclined to hold fast to their “No” vote.

Is there a link to an article that references this, or a reliable quote from someone? That way, we can pass this information along to other bloggers and get this out on the internet networks ASAP.

Fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be a bumpy ride…..

Thanks again Dan...

Nodak61 (Diary) Monday, March 8th at 2:16PM EST (link)

I was hoping you’d have something posted today, as the pot kinda got stirred up over the weekend. (Massa)
There’s some good news today, “Lipinski flips to No on Obamacare”
( from Hot Air)
I’ve been following Jay Cost for a few years too, and I trust his instincts on these issues.

He is solid

Dan Perrin (Diary) Tuesday, March 9th at 8:16AM EST (link)

and Rep. Cleaver, who is part of the House Whip structure just confirmed Cost’s count:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2010/03/08/dem_congressman_obama_doesnt_have_the_votes_to_pass_health_care.html

Member of Congress Are Home A Lot More Than You Think

GJ Merits (Diary) Monday, March 8th at 2:42PM EST (link)

It was last year when Dr. Hunter of the Social Security Institute noticed it, and I think it bears repeating here:

[The bad news is, according to a report in the Politico, “Members [of Congress] usually arrive for the first vote of the week as the sun sets on Tuesdays, and they’re usually headed back home before it goes down again on Thursdays.” Nice work if you can get it, huh?]

http://www.socialsecurityinstitute.com/blog_post/show/309

The Politico link is here:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1009/28015.html#ixzz0TMpIufb5

[But midway through Obama’s first year in office, Hoyer’s House has settled into a more leisurely routine. Members usually arrive for the first vote of the week as the sun sets on Tuesdays, and they’re usually headed back home before it goes down again on Thursdays. ]

Find them – in a pizza parlor is you have to. The dirty little secret is out. Personal pressure has much greater impact than emails and faxes. Still send those, but if you can find out when and where your member of Congress is in town – which appears to be quite often – then show up and say hello!

I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence, the money of their constituents….James Madison

If you want to go fast – go alone. If you want to go far – go together.

To win against tyranny you must embrace not only novel solutions, but fear of the unknown as well.

Buttonholing members of Congress

Dan Perrin (Diary) Tuesday, March 9th at 8:23AM EST (link)

is very effective

Thanks, Dan -

Teresa in Fort Worth, TX (Diary) Monday, March 8th at 2:57PM EST (link)

you are a voice of calm reason in a river full of “crazy”…..

Fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be a bumpy ride…..

HCD/HCR has replaced herpes

E Pluribus Unum (Diary) Monday, March 8th at 3:01PM EST (link)

as the poster child for “gift that keeps on giving”.

In August when I was mapping out the way this would unfold, I expected December 31 was the hard deadline. Dems would pass it before then, or it would die on the vine. I believed that once the calendar said ’2010′, every House Dem, and every Senate Class 3 Dem (those up this Nov) would start their CountDown Calendar to Doom on November 2. I believed that Obama, Pelosi, and Reid would recognize the folly of dragging it into 2010 and would either (a) fight a desperate fight in December to get it done, or (b) give up.

Silly me. God bless those idiots. It will fail, and like Dan says, has ALREADY failed. And here we are in March, still getting this in the news everyday. Less than 9 months till DOOM, and no end in sight for the folly and fun.

Kill the Terrorists
Protect the Borders
Punch the Hippies h/t IMAO

Thanks!

GJ Merits (Diary) Monday, March 8th at 4:25PM EST (link)

I just had a mouthful of Pepsi exit my nostrils and hit my computer screen and keyboard.

I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence, the money of their constituents….James Madison

If you want to go fast – go alone. If you want to go far – go together.

To win against tyranny you must embrace not only novel solutions, but fear of the unknown as well.

they need to kill it

Dan Perrin (Diary) Tuesday, March 9th at 8:30AM EST (link)

And many members need to vote against it for November.

Otherwise they will be in intense political pain.

And they need to end this ObamaCare nightmare quickly.

Self-interested states?

mavericktime Monday, March 8th at 3:58PM EST (link)

The New York Times is a major pusher of ObamaCare. I’m not sure about the LA Times. But, how much of the support for ObamaCare from states like California and New York is due to self-interest because of the huge State obligations for the health and retirement benefits for their public sector employees? Neither of those two states seems willing to make the cuts that Gov. Christie is implementing in New Jersey. They may be looking for the Federal government to take a load off of them.

Just a guess – not sure if it’s relevant.

obama reminds me of the crotch bomber actions when it didn't go off. What next?NT

bobojake (Diary) Monday, March 8th at 4:00PM EST (link)

We will not have long to find out

Dan Perrin (Diary) Tuesday, March 9th at 8:35AM EST (link)

Just 9 days to go.

I don't think we will know by Easter

JSobieski (Diary) Tuesday, March 9th at 9:09AM EST (link)

There are already rumblings about backing off the time frame.

I suspect this dance with the devil will continue far longer than anyone expects.

My rules of the road for primary season.
Rule #1: Vote for YOUR first choice in the primaries
Rule #2: Vote for the R in the general.
Rule #3: Don’t let anyone convince you to violate Rule #1 or Rule #2
Rule #4: When in a center-right argument, reaffirm Rules #1-#3–it will help us all to get along better.
Rule #5: If you are using the language of the left, you probably aren’t furthering conservativism
Rule #6: The priority is issues first, candidates second, and supporters third. Nobody is bigger than the issues. Conversely, if you spend your time focusing on supporters, you are wasting everyone’s time.

STOP THE MADNESS!

A reduction in the rate of spending increases is NOT a cut!
In-state tuition for illegals is NOT amnesty!
Requiring someone to pay their medical bills is NOT an individual mandate!
Reducing tax rates is NOT a tax increase!

Salena Zito had last interview with Jack Murtha

katesmith (Diary) Monday, March 8th at 4:22PM EST (link)

She is a Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reporter, appears on John Batchelor’s show, and said last week Murtha told her ObamaCare would not pass because it’s too big. That it needs to be broken up into smaller pieces. Zito also estimates there are at most 200 votes in the House. Murtha did vote for it when he was alive because of his alliance with Pelosi.

Fascinating

Dan Perrin (Diary) Tuesday, March 9th at 8:39AM EST (link)

Murtha was an old bull and one of the Speaker’s closest colleagues.

If she won’t even listen to him, which, obviously she did not and is not, then she is even more irrational than I thought.

The woman is very dangerous to the health of her fellow Dems.

The term is "Undead"

Raven (Diary) Monday, March 8th at 4:31PM EST (link)

The Healthcare Takeover Bill is the political Zombie that hasn’t been shot in the head yet.

We cut off its arms the first time it went through the House.
We cut off its legs in the Senate.

Now that it’s pulling itself along after us with its lips, it’s time to just shoot it in the head and be done with it.

“If you do not have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one.”
Luke 22:36

Undead, ah

Dan Perrin (Diary) Tuesday, March 9th at 8:40AM EST (link)

now I understand

I'd love to believe you Dan, but I don't.

aruges Monday, March 8th at 8:56PM EST (link)

Not when Stupak seems to be willing to deal.
http://www.riehlworldview.com/carnivorous_conservative/2010/03/uh-oh-stupak-says-obamacare-abortion-issue-can-be-resolved.html

They will stop at nothing to get this passed.

Thanks for posting

earlgrey (Diary) Monday, March 8th at 10:10PM EST (link)

I saw this too. THings were looking so good, until now.

You do not have to believe or agree

Dan Perrin (Diary) Tuesday, March 9th at 8:43AM EST (link)

with me.

No worries.

But there are those who are never going to believe that ObamaCare will be defeated, even after it happens.

Two weeks later they will wake up and realize we did it.

But, I do not think that Stupak will cave. And if Pelosi changes the bill to meet Stupak’s demands then the bill goes back to the Senate where it dies.

Dan I continue to be baffled by your optimism here...

aruges Tuesday, March 9th at 12:56AM EST (link)

I’m not bashing you, but I honestly don’t see how you can continue to believe that they won’t pass this?

They got 50 senators willing to use “reconciliation” and Biden can overrule any objection the parlimentarian raises. The Republicans can try to do the “Death by unlimited amendment” thing, but Biden can dismiss any amendment they raise individually or en bank. They can do anything they want in the upper house since they can effectively ignore the rules.

The House passed a worse bill than the Senate. Why wouldn’t they pass the Senate bill once enough Senators publicly stated they were willing to go the “reconciliation” rout? What’s to stop them from cramming the Public Option in there? The only reason it wasn’t in the Senate bill to begin with was they had to get to 60 votes so they had a bill to reconcile. Stupak’s statement today about seeing a way forward on the abortion issue, shows that he was ultimately just bluffing. There are no Pro Life Dems, at least not when it comes to taking over 1/6th of the economy. Socialism first after all.

Public anger has prevented this thing from passing up to this point, but not enough of them seem to care what the pubic thinks. They pass this, they win. FOREVER.

Hell, if I was a congress critter I’d trade my career to ensure the future of my ideology. Particularly if my leadership was promising to destroy me if I didn’t. If the public throws me out, I could always get a cushy lobbyist job. Lobbyist jobs go to the loyal after all.

Frankly, as I see it, our only hope is that the Supreme Court throws this thing out once it passes, but I’m not holding my breath. And even if the Supremes do toss it, as long as the Dems run the Senate and the White House, they can always just pack the court like their hero FDR always wanted. Can you say “Nuclear Option”? 50 plus Biden gets another Justice on the bench. FOR LIFE.

Given what they have already shown a willingness to do. Why would they pass up an opportunity to FOREVER shape the court?

Tell me I’ve missed something.

Tell me I’m wrong.

I want to be wrong.

"Reconciliation? We don't need no stinkin' reconciliation!"

mschuh Tuesday, March 9th at 7:43AM EST (link)

If the house passes this POS it will NEVER, EVER see reconciliation. That’s just a smoke screen. Obama will be in the House signing the bill as the last member votes. The Dems will then claim that Republican “obstructionism” is keeping them from “fixing” the bill as promised.

This is how you are wrong . . .

JSobieski (Diary) Tuesday, March 9th at 8:20AM EST (link)

Your perception of being worse than the Senate bill is different than the perception of a liberal or even moderate democrat.

Your perception of being worse than the Senate bill is different if you evaluate the bills from the perspective of unions.

Your perception of the being worse than the Senate bill ignores the issue federal funding for abortions.

Also reconciliation is irrelevant, except to the extent that the prospect of using it induces house members to be suckers.

STOP THE MADNESS!

If you want to figure this stuff out, you have to try to see things from the other person's perspective

JSobieski (Diary) Tuesday, March 9th at 8:54AM EST (link)

The Stupak 12 do not see the House bill as being “even worse than the Senate bill.” To them the House bill is great, and the Senate bill is a non-starter.

STOP THE MADNESS!

The bill will fail in the House

Dan Perrin (Diary) Tuesday, March 9th at 8:45AM EST (link)

reconciliation will not happen.

See my response to your post just above this one.

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