The will to act, which looked so resolute among the Democratic leadership during the Dark Days of the The Great ObamaCare Wars of 2009 and 2010, has left the campsite, with rank and file sneaking away along the stream lines leading away from the Crusader’s tents.
What looked liked indomitable will to the rank and file faithful, now looks like willful blindness, strategic stupidity and tactical suicide.
It’s not that RedState, FireDogLake or experts like Charlie Cook could not see it. It’s that the Dem leadership in the White House, Senate and House refused to see it. Now, they are facing rank and file members who see it; and in moments of clarity, glimpses of their own self-destruction; caused by leaders who used the Dem naivety and blindness on health care to manipulate the rank and file into the electoral kill zone they now find themselves.
Now the witch-doctors of health reform are trying one more set of incantations and gyrations produced by trance-like stares into the abyss — who then emerge to proclaim that we must do what were going to do before Massachusetts — but this time with 51 votes in the Senate.
And no, they are not kidding. (Or listening.)
Now the witch-doctors and high priestesses are trying really hard to conjure up a potion strong enough to work on the Senate — but they find that reality has created a natural antidote — fear, which brings us back to the streamlines leading away from the thinning Crusader war party.
FireDogLake has emerged as particularly immune to such incantations:
“Before Democrats try this [reconciliation side-car] I want them to think long and hard. Their “fix” to a very unpopular health care bill is an additional bill that Republicans will easily attack as being more tax increases, more cuts to Medicare, and more backroom deals to give special tax breaks for unions. Even if I agree with these general policy changes, they are not a “fix,” they are political death wish…I must ask the Democratic leadership if they are actively trying to lose control of the House in 2010? Do they want House Speaker Eric Cantor? It really seems like they are actually trying to do everything they can think of to make sure that they destroy their brand before the midterms. Raising taxes, Medicare cuts, and special union deals–Democrats might just as well have added death panels to the bill because I bet those might poll slightly better than this combo. Have fun explaining to the American people why you thought it was a better idea to raise taxes instead of controlling costs by giving people the choice of a public option.”
My contentions during the Great ObamaCare War were simply that the harder the Dems pushed health care the more they hurt themselves politically. This became a self-sustaining negative feed back loop for the Dems and ultimately they destroyed themselves politically, in a publicly undeniable way. (I had BIG FUN pointing this out.)
The Dems are blinded by their moral superiority and arrogance about their health care cause and could not and would not see their self-destructive actions, and some, like Speaker Pelosi and the President still cannot see it.
Here is where Charlie Cook thinks the Dems are in 2010:
The last six months, since we began writing about impending Democratic problems in August, has been like watching a car wreck in slow motion.
We keep watching, expecting one of the drivers to swerve or hit the brakes, but they never do. The White House and Democratic congressional leaders have done nothing to halt the impending collision.
Gee, what happened in August, 2009?
Yes, reconciliation side car is the act of not swerving or hitting the brakes.
Essentially, Cook believes that 2010 is a nationalized election and “the primary difference between this year and previous nationalized elections [like 1994] is that this one looks so bad for Democrats so early.”
The best thing politically for the Republicans is if the Dems force the Senate down the reconciliation path — sort of like a four month Bataan Death March — for Senate Dems up in 2010 and 2012. Republicans, unlike the first time, will be vigorous in their amendment strategy.
And the Dem negative political feedback loop they worked so hard to create and perfect, would immediately reboot, but with more force.
As before, the Dems would be performing the equivalent of natural political selection — those stupid enough to do it will die off.
For those who like to see an enemy vanquished, in detail, with their fields sown with salt, their horses dead, carts burned, wagon trains of food and ammunition destroyed, leadership dazed, troops wounded, supply lines broken and who are trying to fight in a “difficult environment” but whom will ultimately surrender — then you should be rooting for the Speaker and the White House and the Senate leadership to continue to act irrationally.
Because even if they do, ObamaCare still will not pass.
Moe Lane
Steve Maley
Dan McLaughlin
Neil Stevens
Daniel Horowitz
This thing is beyond toxic...
In The Hook (Diary) Wednesday, January 27th at 11:04AM EST (link)As you well said yesterday Dan, ObamaCare is plutonium. It’s weapons grade uranium. Whatever other radioactive analogy you care to use, it’s all of that and more and it’s burning a hole through the Democratic caucus. And finally now you can see that only the activists are deluding themselves with this sidecar idea; the rank and file Dems in Congress are slowly backing away and the rank and file Dem voters are beginning to revolt as well. Take a look at how steep the poll numbers are now, they’re easily 5-10 points worse than they were two weeks ago:
NBC/WSJ poll (1/23-25):
From what you have heard about Barack Obama’s health care plan, do you think his plan is a good idea or a bad idea? If you do not have an opinion either way, please just say so.
31% Good idea, 46% Bad idea
NPR poll (1/20-23):
As you may have heard, President Obama has proposed a plan to change the health care system that recently passed in the House of representatives and the Senate. From what you have heard about this plan, do you favor or oppose Obama’s health care proposal?
39% Favor, 55% Oppose
The most damning of all is from CNN
Current bill stands at 38/58. 48% say start over and 21% say stop working on health care altogether. Only 30% said pass this one. Even a bill that would increase regulations but not add one more person to the insurance rolls fails 47/51.
I think it’s fair to say that there is some public dissension from the left, that there are some non-activists who oppose Obamacare because it doesn’t go far enough. But that’s not the bulk of the opposition and even if it was a substantial minority, it only proves how fractious the Dem caucus is on this issue and how continuing to debate it is even more suicidal than failing to pass one and looking incompetent. They have time right now, they can still stop, pivot to the economy and push hard for populist legislation that puts our side on the defensive. But they won’t. Obama will say some things tonight that may appear to be populist but he won’t do anything on that front policy-wise and Congress will be impotent to pass anything because there are too many people in leadership positions that are obsessed with health care.
It’s blinding them to the obvious fact that if it’s April and they’re still discussing this, or worse, if they’ve jammed something down our throats, it will be too late to save their majorities in EITHER chamber. Nine months is a political lifetime. They can still do something to save themselves, but they are too obsessed with missing this “chance of a lifetime” that they will not only doom their majorities but they will also have failed to pass a single major piece of legislation that advanced their cause despite controlling everything for two full years.
This is why they should never be allowed to govern. They are totally incompetent.
“Hello? You play to win the game.”
Support conservatives that can win.
http://www.marcorubio.com
Great stuff Matt, great stuff
Dan Perrin (Diary) Wednesday, January 27th at 11:22AM EST (link)Thank for the really great post, I hope everyone reads it.
I live for this stuff
In The Hook (Diary) Wednesday, January 27th at 11:27AM EST (link)I’ve been on RS for many years but just posted infrequently… frankly because we were in charge of Washington and I was just never fired up at a grassroots level. Now? Well in between doing interviews and writing my own stories on the financial industry, I’m on Pollster.com, NRO, Politico, everything including FDL and DailyKos. You can’t defeat your enemy unless you’ve studied him closely!
As an aside, while I consider Bush to be a good man, I think he damaged conservatism and Obama has actually done more for our movement than anyone since Reagan. He’s whipped up the base with leftist policies, inspired us by delivering amateur hour 24/7 and conceded ground on tax cuts and fiscal restraint… an area we moved well away from with the Medicare prescription drug plan and reckless spending.
We’re always more true to ourselves when we are the out party. Go figure.
“Hello? You play to win the game.”
Support conservatives that can win.
http://www.marcorubio.com
5*5!!
skorrent1 (Diary) Wednesday, January 27th at 3:50PM EST (link)“Obama has actually done more for our movement than anyone since Reagan”
Dan, I SO want to believe you about this.
muffin Wednesday, January 27th at 11:08AM EST (link)Worrying that bhocare might pass has given me ulcers!
Fortitudine vincimus – By endurance we conquer
It's going to be OK, everything is going to be OK
Dan Perrin (Diary) Wednesday, January 27th at 11:23AM EST (link)I promise
Thanks, Dan. I trust you. nt
muffin Wednesday, January 27th at 11:26AM EST (link)Fortitudine vincimus – By endurance we conquer
Dan, I Am More Worried About This:
GJ Merits (Diary) Wednesday, January 27th at 11:24AM EST (link)Democrats woo Snowe, Collins in hope of saving health reform legislation: http://tinyurl.com/yjyc2bj
I can just see some Republicans taking the advice of Gingrich and working on a new bill that, trust me, will be a RINOCare bill that is not much better than what we have now. As Dr. Hunter points out, having a bill that is government healthcare is the Dem approach and having a bill that is fascist healthcare (government backed insurance cartels) is a RINO bill. If the Republicans don’t hold the line we could see a resurgence of something that will turn out to be just as bad as what we have now. The scary part – Snowe is up in 2014 and Collins in 2012, so they are immune from the 2010 threat.
Your thoughts?
I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence, the money of their constituents….James Madison
If you want to go fast – go alone. If you want to go far – go together.
To win against tyranny you must embrace not only novel solutions, but fear of the unknown as well.
Scaled down bill has its own problems
In The Hook (Diary) Wednesday, January 27th at 11:36AM EST (link)What do you pass? A ban on denial for pre-existing conditions? A ban on rescissions? A limit on out of pocket expenses? I don’t know what you can pass in a scaled down bill unless it also includes tort reform, real interstate competition and yes, unfortunately, subsidies.
You have to increase the risk pool somehow if you get rid of pre-existing condition denials or rescissions otherwise premiums will soar since only the sick will buy insurance. The leftist activists are right when they constantly raise this point; banning denials and rescissions without a mandate or a public option is like allowing people to buy auto insurance after an accident. It’s ludicrous.
So the risk pool will have to be boosted by giving subsidies to those who cannot afford insurance. I think this is actually somewhat acceptable, provided we get tort reform (which will end ultra-defensive medicine) and destroy the state by state fiefdoms insurance companies have now by enacting new federal regulations that override state regulations… and are far looser than those in place in the states. Does that hurt my sensibility as a person who likes local control? Yes. But the commerce clause specifically calls for this kind of regulation at a federal level, so it’s more than Constitutional, it’s the correct usage of federal congressional legislation.
Look, a scaled down bill is a non-starter unless it has provisions to increase the risk pool. Just passing a few of these things will cause premiums to go insanely high which will not only make everyone furious at Washington but also cause more people to lose insurance. That’s why you have only three options to reform the system: Gov’t controlled or near-government controlled health care, a free market system that opens up interstate competition but also makes people pay more out of pocket or shop around (to bring down costs in general; the third party payer system is one of the chief reasons for health care inflation) or the middle way I’ve proposed above, but that middle way isn’t guaranteed to work. It can only work if enough people buy insurance and subsidies can’t guarantee that nor will they necessarily stem health care inflation or the deficit. I’m not the CBO, so I have no idea how that would be scored… though I can assure you it would not be the monstrosity that Obamacare is.
“Hello? You play to win the game.”
Support conservatives that can win.
http://www.marcorubio.com
Oh, and plus you get to spend six more months
Repair_Man_Jack (Diary) Wednesday, January 27th at 11:37AM EST (link)telling us about healthcare….
” I side impenitently with the human race against the modern reformer.” – C.S. Lewis
I've seen this movie before, too
Dan Perrin (Diary) Wednesday, January 27th at 11:52AM EST (link)and essentially, what happens is that as the Republicans begin to get credit for moving any health care bill, the Dems, defeated and bleeding who had to turn to the GOP essentially lose their minds.
They CAN NOT BELIEVE Republicans are getting credit or political benefit from heath care reform ESPECIALLY AFTER THEY JUST KILLED OBAMACARE.
And then the Dems kill it. Just because they cannot stand seeing the GOP get any credit on health care.
But after the next election, there will be an effort to amend health care, and it will likely success with some modest reforms. Nothing like ObamaCare, just as HillaryCare’s failure caused HIPAA to pass.
And that's a good thing
In The Hook (Diary) Wednesday, January 27th at 12:14PM EST (link)Healthcare does need to be reformed in this country. The current path is indeed unsustainable. There are people who do not have coverage that need coverage. I think someone on our policy team needs to be spending the next several months writing two bills. One would be a healthcare bill that provides portability, new regulations to bring real competition to the market and some limited subsidies.and a REAL stimulus bill that would include business tax cuts, a payroll tax holiday and yes, even some infrastructure spending. Only this time said “shovel ready” projects really WOULD be shovel-ready and they’d be worthy of our tax dollars as opposed to being pork projects.
A GOP House would move immediately to sell this to the public and get it rolling through the legislature. Senate would sign off on this in a heartbeat, especially one with only a 52 seat Dem majority as Nelson, Webb and Lieberman would join our side.
“Hello? You play to win the game.”
Support conservatives that can win.
http://www.marcorubio.com
GOP needs to keep- asking 3 questions--
skorrent1 (Diary) Wednesday, January 27th at 4:24PM EST (link)1) Do we want to keep paying high premiums just to make John Edwards richer? (Tort reform)
2) Do we want the bureaucrats in Raleigh (eg.) to tell us what insurance we can buy? (Interstate commerce)
3) If our bank can’t tell us what car insurance to buy, and our mortgage company can’t pick our house insurance company, why should our employer pick our health insurance? (Portability)
So, are Dems making their last stand like Alamo?
Cheetah772 (Diary) Wednesday, January 27th at 11:28AM EST (link)If that is the case, then so be it, let us steamroll over them, taking both the House and the Senate in 2010.
Don’t take any prisoner, hit them back with vengeance. For the last few years, Democrats have been pounding hard on Republicans and conservatives alike, it’s now high time to make them pay back dearly.
Please stop this silly nonsense about bi-partisanship! No one believes in that anyway…
Daniel 2:20 And he [God] changeth the times and seasons: he removeth kings, and setteth up kings: he giveth wisdom unto the wise, and knowledge to them that know understanding.
Yes, basically
Dan Perrin (Diary) Wednesday, January 27th at 11:54AM EST (link)but I don’t like that analogy because they are the Americans.
Our Demand
war_of_2010 Wednesday, January 27th at 11:40AM EST (link)Our Demand
We, the American People
American Patriots All
Allegiance To Our Flag, in Accordance With Our Constitution,
For Love Of Our Country, One Nation Under God
are being portrayed as right-wing extremists,
a lunatic fringe element, and astroturf
we are everyday Americans
We, are the American People
In regards to this administration’s lobbyist-generated
back-room, closed-door, Healthcare Reform Bill,
to say Americans are ANGRY is the
“understatement of the year”
Enough already
Stop the insanity
Keep your politics out of our Healthcare
Healthcare reform done right utilizes the K.I.S.S. philosophy
and first focuses on four primary cost factors
Fraud, Tort, Billing, and Drug Prices
Healthcare fraud is said to cost taxpayers
hundreds of billions of dollars a year
With an intelligent database
there would not be this cost
Only idiots would add trillions of dollars
to a healthcare system that is leaking money like a sieve
without fixing the system first
Tort Insurance is quoted as between 4-6%
of the overall Healthcare cost
an estimated 120 Billion Dollars per year
Seems quite logical that to reduce costs
to take lawyers out of our healthcare
Billing hassle is quoted as 8%
of the overall Healthcare cost
With an intelligent database
there would not be this cost
Drug Price Reform
Americans demand the right
to obtain our prescription drugs
from the least expensive legitimate
pharmaceutical source on the planet
this is not subject to discussion
E-Verifying recipients for unemployment benefits
will save substantial amounts of money
and E-Verifying Driver’s License recipients
will help secure our country
and E-Verifying all workers will generate 8.3 million jobs
currently held by known illegals
all recipients, of any entitlement
federal, or state
must be E-Verified to eliminate most fraud
and preferably Bio-ID’d to eliminate all fraud
Need we remind Congress, and this administration
that Entitlements cost taxpayers 50% of our Federal Budget
Fraud in Entitlements alone
costs Americans more, each year, than both wars
and arguably, fraud costs Americans, more, in a single year
than both wars, in total, over the last ten years
FIX THE FRAUD FIRST before doing anything else
and we’ll save 1 Trillion Dollars a year
actually even more
in the meantime we will solicit
the input of all healthcare workers,
caring doctors, nurses, technicians,
and maintenance workers, et al
so they can tell us how to improve healthcare
and reduce the cost
in these very trying times
that are very likely to last for far longer
than any of us want them to.
they will help save healthcare for us
Do not disregard, We, the American People
by continuing to act, deaf, dumb, and blind
to the overwhelming consensus
of the very people you profess to represent
First Fix Fraud, Tort, Billing, and Drug Prices
process the ideas of the healthcare people
and we can have a one page bill
for We, the American People
sometime after we back away from the abyss
and are back on our feet again.
to say now is not the time
is another of those
“understatements of the year”
Terrorists should always be
the responsibility of our Military and our CIA
Keep Gitmo open
it’s the perfect out of the way place
to keep terrorists, who would do harm to our citizens,
imprisoned by our military
and last, but not at all least
FREE OUR NAVY SEALS
punishing our Seals for punching a known terrorist
isn’t any consolation for the deaths of innocent Americans
and it doesn’t at all present the image of who we Americans are
Americans stand riveted behind our Military and our Intelligence Community
they must be encouraged to keep us safe
not deterred for petty offenses in the exercising of their duties
Heaven forbid if we, Americans, ever got our hands on terrorists
there would be no need for a trial
A Contract Of, For, and With, Americans
Patriots, it is our duty to educate all Americans
http://bit.ly/5Y15h8
I like it
Dan Perrin (Diary) Wednesday, January 27th at 11:52AM EST (link)HCR is The Metaphor for the Obama regime.
redneck_hippie (Diary) Wednesday, January 27th at 11:43AM EST (link)Increased attention/exposure to both in allotted time and intensity, cause their demise to accelerate (plutonium/feedback loop are apt).
What will happen this year can and should be just the cornerstone. The counter-revolution to come can and should rival our first American founding in what was destroyed and what was built in its stead. Grassroots action continuing over the years and decades is required. Then we will see history made, history we can be proud of.
We took great advantage of their strategic mistake
Dan Perrin (Diary) Wednesday, January 27th at 11:57AM EST (link)and changed the strategic posture of the entire ObamaCare battle, but also the entire war between the GOP and the DEMS.
This has been a great accelerator of history, and the grassroots and everyone else will have to get used to gains in feet instead of tens of yards.
There will be other great issues that will accelerate our progress, but few as efficient as the dem-health-care-over-reach.
Cook's Analogy
saintgeorgegentile Wednesday, January 27th at 12:06PM EST (link)Per Mr. Cook:
We keep watching, expecting one of the drivers to swerve or hit the brakes, but they never do. The White House and Democratic congressional leaders have done nothing to halt the impending collision.
This analogy invokes an image of a game of chicken between the dems and who. The situation, in my mind, is more like the dems all in one car driving towards a brick wall. If they crash and burn they’ll have no one to blame but themselves.
Freedom is the glue of capitalism, that amoral wisdom of the markets that most efficiently allots goods and services to a citizenry.
-Victor Davis Hanson
Dan you are awesome
antisocial (Diary) Wednesday, January 27th at 12:30PM EST (link)Lot of times it felt like this stuff was done. And then came Dan telling us it is not going to happen. It was hard to believe you then. I acknowledge that you have a very good grasp of legislative politics.
We must also acknowledge the citizenry for rising up to protest. This is the most beautiful aspect of liberty.
PS: It’s not over until IT IS over.
Obama Doctrine – Boot On The Throat
—————————–
What is to be done?
——————————
No. You can’t – Moe Lane
——————————
The Emperor has no clothes!!!
My entire view of why this would not pass
Dan Perrin (Diary) Wednesday, January 27th at 1:10PM EST (link)was based on the American citizen, and our system of gov’t.
I pray every night that it's really dead, but...
doublebarreled Wednesday, January 27th at 12:37PM EST (link)I started protesting Obamacare with an impromptu rally at Kay Hagan’s (D-NC) office in Greenboro, NC. Delivered a letter to her staff that day. Called most of the NC Reps and said HECK NO. Went back to Hagan’s office for another rally and was threatened with arrest by building security while in her office lobby. Didn’t happen, stupid Wackendudes.
My wife and I went to 9/11 rally in DC and met the best people. I then watched as I was marginalized or outright ignored by the MSM and even Fox News and labeled a racist, right -wing Nazi by my elected officials.
Faxed and called Congressman on both the Saturday House and Senate votes. Got depressed after losing both votes. Donated money to Hoffman, watched him lose. Didn’t donate to Brown, because I just didn’t believe he’d really vote against the bill. Watched him win, despite the fact that I was 100% sure that the Dems would claim fraud. Was absolutely sure this would send the message to DC and Obama.
Watched in disbelief as Pelosi stood her ground and threatened to pass HCR anyways, and Obama saying he was going to double down. Now I’m supposed to believe it’s dead for a generation? BULL. It’s kryptonite until after the election. If they can get enough Dems re-elected and con enough RINO’s, they’ll pass the same darn bill as soon as they get people sworn in. Why? Because HCR in the form it now exists fulfills their perverted Marxist wishes.
Sorry, Dan, every time I get my hopes up, I get kicked in the head. My heart aches. HCR is their Holy Grail, their skeleton key to open the lock on Pandora’s Box (Statism). They’ll never give up, they’ve tasted victory, ableit small. It’s made them blind to reason, logic or sanity. They’ll never quit. We’ll be fighting this spectre as long a BHO is in office. They’ll throw it out there when the time is right. They’ll tease us with bi-partisanship and the Republicans, in an effort to look fair and reasonable will play the fools, with Boehner, McConnell, McCain and Graham in the lead and Collins, Snow, and Bennett in tow.
If they pass it in it’s current form, I consider it an Act Of War on the Constitution and the American people. I pray to God that you are right and I am DEAD wrong. I’m sorry I sound so melodramatic. I hope that I speak for those of us on the ground fighting to stop this. Some of us are tired, on edge and frustrated that no matter how much we scream, the Congress and the Administration ignores us. The flip side, I’m getting my second wind and realizing that the Obama years are going to be a marathon and I have to pace myself. I was always politically opinionated, but never active. Now it’s time to fight to the bitter end, if necessary. This country can be a light of Freedom to the world again. We must win.
God Bless The USA, we don’t deserve it, but I’m asking for it anyways.
I hope they don't quit because it will not pass
Dan Perrin (Diary) Wednesday, January 27th at 1:15PM EST (link)and they will further destroy themselves.
There's a time for everything...
writeblock Wednesday, January 27th at 2:40PM EST (link)…Right now seems the time for optimism. If they don’t have the votes this week, they won’t have them two weeks from now. There is only one thing on their agenda from now till November: reducing public anger–which means they can’t pass this bill. The longer it’s shelved, the more toxic it becomes.
Here's hoping that's true this time out...
AceInTX (Diary) Wednesday, January 27th at 2:16PM EST (link)Nuclear Option?
snowshooze (Diary) Wednesday, January 27th at 2:17PM EST (link)It appears they might go for the bomb. I hear a lot on both sides of that, I do not pass off the move as being anything less than a major threat.
Nobody thought Brown could make it, at least many didn’t believe it possible, so I will keep my blinders off as I think it very possible for our Congress to play dirty pool and pull it off.
It doesn’t matter if they lose their seat, there are plenty of ways to compensate the suicide bombers in heaven. Lot’s of cushy positions in the machine for the pure and dedicated, so if they fry themselves on health care, they will find themselves in a nice bureaucratic office to occupy, It’s a bulletproof strategy.
I am still e-mailing my congressmen regularly in opposition of health care reform. For all it may be worth.
Maybe...
writeblock Wednesday, January 27th at 2:52PM EST (link)…but many are young with big ambitions like players in a poker tournament. The idea is to stay in the game to be eligible for the jackpot.
Can you say delete?
texasgalt (Diary) Wednesday, January 27th at 3:01PM EST (link)The congress- folks do find faxed messages a bit more challenging. Someone actually has to throw a fax away. . . Of course their 22 year-old LAs learn to turn the fax off. Honestly, the people who most need to hear the opposition to the cram-downs have made it very clear. The message: You are too dumb to know what is good for yourself or the country and we dont care what you hicks in flyover country think.