Dems Are Bluffing on Reconciliation Threat


WaPo is reporting on the widely circulated quote from House member Van Hollen that the Dems still consider reconciliation an option.

The House Member talking about a procedure used in the Senate to avoid a 60 vote threshold is, well, you know — not credible. I know Van Hollen was a Senate staffer, which gives him enhanced credibility to make this threat, but he is making it for the Senate. (I know Van Hollen, I worked on the other side of the aisle of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations staff from him. I know him as smart, personable and persuasive, but he is clearly drinking way too much of the Jonestown Brigade Kool-Aid on this one).

Reconciliation is not a viable option for many, many reasons, points of order among them, but mostly because of opposition from various Dem Chairmen of Committees of Jurisdiction in the Senate — Budget and Finance — to name two.

Finally, maybe, the Dems are waking up to the toxic politics of their health deform (H/T Erickson) and WaPo linked to above is reporting the Dems working feverishly to cut some kind of deal that gets 218 and 60 to try and get it off the front page.

It is beyond bizarre and illustrative of the fact THEY DON’T GET IT that they think passing something the public hates will make them hate it, and the Dems, less.

Reconciliation would keep health care on the front pages (again) for months — because the Dems would have to start over at the Committee level. Oh boy, BIG FUN. It would be like crawling over glass for the Dems (uh, more light bulbs please — they are so FUN break.)

(For the record, yes, I still think — as I have since Obama was elected — that ObamaCare will not pass, and that no health care reform will pass this Congress. I am still annoyed every time I hear — something will pass. I’m at Nyet it won’t — regardless of the outcome of the Scott race.)

First, the Dem members would revolt — er, whine a lot (since they have proven they don’t revolt) if any move was made to pass health care via reconciliation.

But, the political consultant class — those responsible for re-electing and electing Dems — would revolt, President Obama’s Captain Ahab routine with the health-care-white-whale notwithstanding.

In a nutshell, reconciliation ain’t gonna happen. Van Hollen is a smart guy, but he’s bluffing.


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25 Comments Leave a comment

Ahab...What about Queeg?

redneck_hippie (Diary) Saturday, January 16th at 9:27PM EST (link)

I’m putting in my request in for Obama to get the Old Yellowstain treatment by the members of his party. Obsession over a quart of strawberries would not equal the takeover of health care. Shouldn’t the Democrats in congress be plotting their mutiny by now?


Activists Taking Action: Unified Patriots

If we are McMurphy

nelsa (Diary) Saturday, January 16th at 9:53PM EST (link)

Then Obama is Nurse Ratched.
“Upon arrival at a mental institution, a brash rebel rallies the patients together to take on the oppressive Nurse Ratched, a woman more a dictator than a nurse.”

Lol, you win. Congress IS the house of the insane. nt

redneck_hippie (Diary) Sunday, January 17th at 12:38PM EST (link)

Activists Taking Action: Unified Patriots

 
 
 

Yes they should

Dan Perrin (Diary) Saturday, January 16th at 9:37PM EST (link)

but they have not figured out that he thinks he needs health care to pass to save his Presidency.

He does not care if it cost them their election.

Obama-the-arrogant is reading press like this:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_obama_management_style_analysis

 

Dan, I'm interested in why you think it won't pass.

NDPhog (Diary) Saturday, January 16th at 9:39PM EST (link)

I’ve been reading your posts since that crazy Saturday when the House (because of Stupak) passed their version of ObamaCare.

Despite events that most people think have greatly improved the chances of ObamaCare passing (including the Nelson and Landrieu bribes, the Senate vote, the Union bribe, etc.) you have been steadfast in your belief it will not pass.

Is it based on publicly known facts, inside information, gut feel based on your experience, a combination of all 3, or something else?

Thanks for your regular dose of hope.

Why it won't pass:

Dan Perrin (Diary) Sunday, January 17th at 4:39AM EST (link)

I have been and always will be among those who believe that the Dems cannot pass comprehensive health reform because they always over reach.

The Waxman-Pelosi-Obama axis are too liberal for America, and they really do not understand that their holy grail of health care reform is anti-American.

The politics bear this out, but the discipline that Obama and Pelosi have been able to enforce has only increased the political damage to the Democrats because they have not let nature take its course and let it die by stopping their crusade.

It is a highly unnatural political event we are witnessing. The normal checks and balances have not worked because the Dems really believed that heatlh care reform was politically a plus — it has taken them a long time to realize they are teeing up 1994 all over again.

The fact that they will not listen to Charlie Cook is amazing and Rothenberg is clearly frustrated with his own team that they are not listening. They are truely delusional. Completely lost their minds politically — lets cut Medicare, tax Americans, take over health care, not work on the economy, cram it down everyone’s throat.

Sen. Nelson and Sen. Lieberman are feeling the results of their voting Yes.

This is not a situation where Congressmen can vote yes and explain it. They can’t cut some deal and expect their voters to say — oh, that was worth it. The voters want it dead.

Every time the bill takes another step forward the politics get much worse for the Dems. Really, this delusion is in the White House with the President and with Pelosi.

And the overwhelming negative political nature of the bill will find expression in some thing in the bill — but more likely in many things.

The competing issues and interests will take the bill down, because of the negative political effects that the bill is creating for the Dems.

They think that by passing health care they will exercise the demons of 1994. What has been proven, beyond a doubt, is that if you do not listen to the voters and keep doing what they hate they will become equally determined to make the Dems pay.

I can cite the various issues that are vexing the majority — from abortion, to immigration, to the lack of a public option or Medicare buy-in, to raising taxes, to cutting Medicare Advantage, to the $2.5 trillion they will spend, to the government control of all health plans and their design, to the individual mandate to the shifting of employer plans to the government run system of insurance, to the shredding of the promise that if you like your plan you can keep it.

These issues will motivate and have motivated the public to be at NO.

These issues have motivated and will motivate various interest groups to be at no.

The payments to the states and the Phrma deal, and the buying off of Landrieu and Nelson are all symptoms of Pelosi, Reid and Obama cramming it down Congress’ throats and the public’s.

All the public wants is a hero to kill this and someone will step forward. Ironically, Barney Frank has done the most to kill health care recently, with his elect-Brown-and-health-care-dies statement.

The fact is that the Dems in Congress were backing away from health care even before he said this and many are praying Scott wins to give them a reason to be the bill killers. But ultimately, the Dems are doing too much at once and are perpetually giving the public the finger — we are doing it anyway.

I think that if health care dies their losses will be far less — but they are so delusional there leadership refuses to see it, and therefore, they have increased the political damage to themselves by magnitudes.

Harry Reid is a walking dead man. Even Chuck Todd of NBC thinks so. And Pelosi will lose the House, just like 1994. They are feasting on killing off their own while saying they are not. Everyone is slowly waking up to the fact they are.

Yep. 'Its the Mandate, stupid'

Brian_Roastbeef (Diary) Sunday, January 17th at 11:37AM EST (link)

Seriously, I believe that if the ‘stupids’ in D.C. had dropped the individual mandate from the very beginning, they could have been able to get this through – maybe even with a public option or something close to it. As frightening as it is for us, there are some individual pieces of this that poll reasonably well, or at least did when all of this started. In the end though it is the individual mandate – the precedent of having the federal government order us to spend our money as they see fit – that offends our basic libertarian sensibilities consciously and subconsciously.

Unfortunately, or maybe fortunately depending on how you look at it, the statists inside the Beltway don’t even begin to grasp this concept. The Republicans in opposition haven’t even really brought up the issue. I’d like to believe that its because they don’t want to undermine the factor that they know will kill Obamacare in the long run, but its more likely because they’re still defending the abominations that are Wyden-Bennett and Romneycare (a shame, because I like Mitt Romney, otherwise.) Meanwhile the Democrats claim the mandate is necessary as part of their pretense that this won’t cost a massive fortune… and of course there’s the added benefit that it is a massive government intrusion into the daily lives of its citizens.

Anyway, I never let an opportunity for pessimism get by me, but all reason indicates that passage will be very difficult. If Scott Brown wins on Tuesday and his lawyers have read this: http://www.d1040331.dotsterhost.com/applications/serendipity/index.php?/archives/197-Can-Senator-Kirk-Vote-after-January-19.html we’ve just put a nice fat nail in Obamacare’s coffin.

If they want to try for reconciliation, then let them bring it on. I’d love to have the summer of an election year dominated by a massively unpopular Democrat led bill. And during a recession, double trouble! The question then won’t be if we can take back the House, but by how much.

As for the Senate, I’d wonder if they’d be able to make 51 votes when all is said and done. Most of them are ready to run from this at the first opportunity – although I don’t believe it will help. As a Christian, I’m wondering if God let this get so far as passing cloture just so that all 60 of them would have the opportunity to attach their names to the monstrosity once and for all. Even if this bill dies on Wednesday, I can’t see the people of Nebraska trusting Ben Nelson ever again. Blanche Lincoln and Harry Reid are still gone. And while the atmosphere would then be a little friendlier for Barbara Boxer, Evan Bayh, and Kirsten Gillibrand, the Scott Brown victory that could save their butts will also energize grassroots conservatives into making even more of an effort to unseat them.

In the end they’ve made themselves an uncomfortable bed to lie in either way. I agree that damage to them is far worse if they pass it, but if they don’t then they still have to explain why they wasted most of a year accomplishing nothing. Meanwhile, polls now show that there is at least a fair chance that it will be Scott Brown, a Republican, that will end up seen as the hero who triggered its demise.

But there is no mandate

Menlo (Diary) Sunday, January 17th at 12:23PM EST (link)

Not if you read the Senate bill. See here.

I eagerly await seeing if this remains in the final version.

“The ultimate touchstone of constitutionality is the Constitution itself and not what we have said about it.” -Felix Frankfurter

Yeah but I don't think that counts as "no mandate."

Brian_Roastbeef (Diary) Sunday, January 17th at 1:07PM EST (link)

Its more like a mandate with a temporary loophole. Or a mandate without teeth.

Politically, it counts the same as a mandate. The bill is presented as if it has a mandate, and attracts public opposition because of the mandate. I haven’t seen any Obamacare supporters in D.C. run back to their constituents and argue that the bill is okay because all included mandates are voluntary.

Even if they did, I’d call BS to their faces. The public perception is that this is a bill that will force individuals to spend their money to buy insurance as the government orders them, and despite the current loopholes, the public perception is still pretty much right.

The reality is that the foundations of a mandate are in the bill. Once government has taken control of 16-20% of the economy in such a fashion, is there any doubt that they will dig for ways to see that loophole closed? Most likely they would call it a budgetary issue necessary to gain sufficient income to pay down the deficit (coincidentally increased by Obamacare) and try to ram that through with 51 votes in the middle of the night.

And if they do not do so, well as your link explains, there are other for the government to get money that it thinks it is owed from the taxpayers.

This bill is a power grab, nothing but. If they were interested in reforming health care, there are many better ways of doing it from both the right and the left (though mostly from the right *tort reform*). The legislation currently being debated only barely attempts to address the issue though. After all, the issues cannot be allowed to stand in the way of the advance of big government.

 
 
 
 
 

bluffing in hopes of what?

bags64 Saturday, January 16th at 9:59PM EST (link)

if he’s bluffing, what’s his end game?

thanks, dan for your optimism, btw… it keeps me going.

They think they can cow the Massachusetts voters

Dan Perrin (Diary) Sunday, January 17th at 4:17AM EST (link)

into thinking that if they elect Scott it won’t matter any way, because health care will pass by using reconciliation

Van Hollen’s statement was the anti-Barney-Frank statement, it was designed for Massachusetts — specifically to demoralize the GOP and Independent voters (an attempt to deflate the enthusiasm and excitement of the MA voter for Frank –and counter the perception that by electing Scott, health care dies.

Van Hollen was saying to Frank and everyone else — elect Scott and health care passes anyway — with a rationale that is not politically viable.

The Barney Frank statement telegraphed to the Massachusetts voters, if you are going to elect Scott do it by a wide margin so there is not a recount or challenge, and if you do, it will kill this toxic health care bill that is killing so many Democrats.

Well, it doesn't seem to be cowing many...

Jeffrey Malbis (malbis) (Diary) Sunday, January 17th at 5:45AM EST (link)

…based on the reports of how Coakley’s state-wide one-day super-stump of Union halls seems to have been greeted with little enthusiasm and very low turn-outs.

Stories posted at Politico from reporters following her around and talking to people in the audience — Union bosses, mind you — indicated that their members were saying they had no intention of voting for her. I am actually beginning to feel somewhat hopeful.

I know that if I was a voter in Massachusetts, and politicians in other states were basically saying that how I voted wasn’t going to make a durned bit of difference in terms of how things are done in Washington, it wouldn’t deflate my enthusiasm or make me feel there was no sense voting. It would make me mad as a Cambridge policeman — and I’d cast a vote to put somebody in the Senate who would monkey-wrench things as much as possible from now on.

I’m betting a lot of people up there feel the same way.

Well, if the cowing is not working, then perhaps

Dan Perrin (Diary) Sunday, January 17th at 7:02AM EST (link)

they were trying to motivate what is left of their “base.”

HAHAHAHA

old/bad habits of the mindless Lefties....

JLenardDetroit (Diary) Sunday, January 17th at 7:45AM EST (link)

is the still dangerous underlying concern… that absent everything that is going on and despite that the Democrats have had Elections handed to them on silver platters in the Deep Blue State, and therefore have NO CLUE how to run a real/competitive Campaign to put forth any reasons why someone should consider to bother to vote for (on purpose, with fore-thought) them, that those old habits (reverting back) of showing up and pulling that JackAss lever; without paying any attention to how it hasn’t been in their best interest for decades; may still happen yet again!

I can’t wait for Tuesday to get here and let us get on with it…. If anyone hasn’t figured out (even long ago) who, and why, they are going to Vote for – well, obviously they shouldn’t be allowed to leave their homes let alone be allowed to vote — EVER!!! So darn many Politically Brain-dead folks in America…. it’s so embarrassing…. On a complete reverse of Michelle Obama’s admission, for me – For the first time (ever since 2008) I’ve been appalled and embarrassed by most of my fellow Americans.

Regards from NoMoTown (the MOTORlessCITY)
“Liberals, looking to do for? America what they’ve done for? Detroit! which is DESTROY IT!”
“I think, therefore I am Conservative”
“Conservative by choice, Republican by necessity”
“You can lead a Liberal to the Truth/Facts, but you cannot make them THINK!”
“Romney [No, not my first choice] does NOT have a MORMON problem. He has a, far too many Americans; these days; are MORONS problem!”


(RS:Help) (JLD) (Hollyweird) (Brain-deads) (SPIN-cycle) (Obamaocare) (Party of kNOw) (Conservatism) (TEApeats) (respectful) (message) (Warning: Children Will Die!!)
Heil “O” Hell No Obamao is NOT MY PRESIDENT! “No U won’t”
I want “O” to FAIL (here, here, & whole Diary (Ofail) here, is why)
The first Liberal was Satan” – a Rush caller (other Quotes)

 
 
 
 
 

Agree Dan, that was my instant reaction: "ahem, no they WON'T do reconciliation"

E Pluribus Unum (Diary) Sunday, January 17th at 12:15AM EST (link)

They HAD to have this thing on the books before the calendar said ’2010′. Now, every day is a day closer to Nov 2 and everybody knows it.

Kill the Terrorists
Protect the Borders
Punch the Hippies h/t IMAO

Yes

Dan Perrin (Diary) Sunday, January 17th at 4:41AM EST (link)

and the Dem rank and file are seeing what listen to Washington, versus the voters gets you — NO PIZZA for you!

 
 

Dan you the man!!! :) ...

erod (Diary) Sunday, January 17th at 12:32AM EST (link)

I always thought this was a bluff and a sign of desperation. The Brown campaign really changes the whole dynamic IMO.

 

Dan your ability to stand firm in your belief is starting...

JadedByPolitics (Diary) Sunday, January 17th at 7:11AM EST (link)

to make me BELIEVE! I don’t know why you think this thing is going to DIE but I am sick of being of the edge of my seat thinking it will so I am giving up the crazy and walking with your experience in such matters and am standing down on my worrying about this HORROR :)

But just in case donate for the final PUSH for Scott Brown in MA, I am!

 

Slip and fall lawyers like obama, reid and schumer have spent their whole life bluffing NT

bobojake (Diary) Sunday, January 17th at 10:43AM EST (link)

you can tell he is 'bluffing' his lips are moving -nt

Alberta (Diary) Sunday, January 17th at 1:20PM EST (link)

Sir, my concern is not whether God is on our side; my greatest concern is to be on God’s side, for God is always right.
Abraham Lincoln

 
 

Thank you Dan for

toni100 (Diary) Sunday, January 17th at 10:49AM EST (link)

validating this niggling hope I’ve had for the past week or so on the Dems overstepping. It’s one of those things where you want to believe this monstrosity couldn’t go through but the indicators were pointing in the other direction.

http://www.bearcreekledger.com
Twitter – http://twitter.com/Toni100

Franklin,TN (Middle Tennessee)
Formerly a MN resident

 

"...it was designed for Massachusetts —

joayn (Diary) Sunday, January 17th at 11:11AM EST (link)

specifically to demoralize the GOP and Independent voters …”

Absolutely. Look at the timeline on two points alone:

1. Obama’s big speech to the house Dems at their retreat on Thursday.
2. Vic Snyder announces his retirement on Friday.

Van Hollen’s “threat” to use reconciliation is a threat to whom? Massachusetts voters. Deflate the opposition. And is that working? No.

I think this was a major miscalculation on Van Hollens’ part – the idea of using reconciliation to save health care could actually depress the Dem base – or motivate them to vote Brown.

America is an idea; a noble idea that essentially boils down to the shocking belief that the masses are in fact not asses. John Nolte

 

It won't be necessary.

Menlo (Diary) Sunday, January 17th at 12:42PM EST (link)

They will have the bill out next week and will have it voted on within two or three weeks. The majority of House members, including many flip-flops, have essentially already said they don’t give a fig what is or is not in it or what people think about it.

“The ultimate touchstone of constitutionality is the Constitution itself and not what we have said about it.” -Felix Frankfurter

 

Dan, I think the time has come for the GOP to nationalize ALL the 2010 elections...

conservativemusician Sunday, January 17th at 6:41PM EST (link)

Just like they did in 1994 over health care. Senator DeMint, are you listening? Hint, hint – Contract with America 2?

People in ALL states should be reminded that voting for ANY Democrat is the same as voting for Pelosi, Reid, and Obama and that these three have shown time and again that they can’t be trusted to do what is in the best interest of the American people. We’ve seen how easily the Dem rank and file get rolled, even though they protest so loudly that they won’t vote for health care. Just because they got rid of Dodd and others to save seats should not mean this is an automatic hold for any Dem that will follow him or others who are bailing out now.

Thanks for a great post Dan and for your unfailing optimism in the midst of an avalanche of pessimism and angst from our side of the aisle. I too am becoming more optimistic by the day.

I agree about nationalizing elections...

mbecker908 (Diary) Sunday, January 17th at 6:51PM EST (link)

See here for a good place to start.