Problems, or P to the sixth power, is what Speaker Pelosi faces.
She tells her caucus on a conference call not to believe reports that she has decided that the House will OK all the major positions of the Senate (read: cave to the Senate) — but in order to defeat the Senate position, she needs to show the White House and the Senate leadership, she does not have the votes in the House.
And she has no Dem Member of Congress who has corralled the votes with which she can point to as being the one who has them, while she does not. The Progressives are suffering from the fact they will not threaten to kill the bill if they do not get what they want. They have no Stupak, no DeMint, no Coburn.
Right now, the progressives or liberals are rolling over on all these issues, not issuing we will vote no demands, on each of the following issues they say they really care about, as the Washington Post reports:
“Members also brought up the public option, abortion funding, immigration and employer mandates, as well as the antitrust exemption for health insurance companies.”
The tax on high value health plans — opposed by unions — also was a big issue on the call.
“On immigration, the Hispanic Caucus made it clear that they want the House language, which allows illegal immigrants to purchase insurance from the exchange, to be in the final product”
But really, who takes the Hispanic Caucus seriously? They know they are not going to get immigration reform any time soon and they are widely expected to cave to the Speaker on this issue.
With Representative Cantor’s recent memo determining that just on the issues of spending, abortion and Medicare Advantage, he believes there are 37 no votes — even accounting for Blue Dogs who may switch to yes, Speaker Pelosi has little maneuvering room in the House. A very slim margin of error. There only needs to be but a handful of Progressives who are serious about their principles.
This is how Politico reports Pelosi’s problems this morning:
“To win this skirmish – or any other – she needs to convince Obama her math is tougher than Harry Reid’s.
“In other words, that it’s harder to corral 218 “yes” votes in the House than it is for Reid to get 60. And the House does not like the Cadillac tax, which hits the Democrats’ labor allies hard, because many unions have bargained for the high-end insurance policies over the years.
“Pelosi wades into the fight with the overwhelming support of her caucus; 190 Democrats have signed a letter opposing the tax, and organized labor is making a fevered last-minute push to shield its members, including a meeting with Obama Monday.
“Two-hundred eighteen is a pretty big number to get to,” said Rep. Joe Courtney (D-Conn.), a lead critic of the so-called Cadillac tax who authored the letter. “I’m not claiming that the 190 people on my letter are monolithic in their opposition…but it doesn’t take much to go from 220 to 217.”
This future of the bill comes down to the following question: will the liberals roll over and play dead for Speaker Pelosi and abandon every one of their principles so she can cave to the Senate? (If you answer yes to this question, the bill passes, if you answer no, the bill does not. My answer is no.)
Labor is predicting this morning there will be a deal, and they will end up with some kind of tax. This tax will be increased over time, so labor can lose this fight slowly.
On the other hand, liberals are having to defend their vote in the Senate for the bill, as the Hill reports this morning:
”Most of the criticism of liberals has come from left-wing advocacy groups angry at the bill’s lack of a public option. Such a component was dropped from the measure earlier in December.
“To that end, Brown and Sanders, along with fellow liberals Al Franken of Minnesota and Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, are on the receiving end of a three-pronged push by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee (PCCC). The liberal group is airing ads on the Internet that target all four, plus robocalls aimed at Sanders and Feingold, as well as a TV ad in Wisconsin also aimed at Feingold.
“PCCC co-founder Adam Green says the so-called “We Need A Hero” campaign is not intended harshly but strategically focuses on the liberals because only one of them is needed before the final Senate vote.
“At this point, the only thing that will change the bill is if one bold senator drew a line in the sand and said they wouldn’t vote for it without a public option,” Green said. “This is the time for that to have an effect. So far, we’ve seen progressives draw a line in the sand and then walk away from it. So we’re not questioning their motives, but we’re pushing them.”
Ironically, for Speaker Pelosi to deliver, she needs a Stupak of the tax issue or a Stupak of the public option to force her to force the White House and the Senate to cave to her. But it appears she and the liberals and the progressives are being rolled on all fronts.
The liberal’s main problem is they do not have a Hero. They do not have a Member who will credibly stand up and yell STOP. They have no House or Senate member or collective of Members who will simply state if my or our demands are not met, we will vote no, and if that means the bill dies so be it — but you had better comply with my requests.
But I think some enterprising progressive member of the Democratic Caucus will seize the leadership mantle of the left and lead a revolt, but only once the outlines of the fix on caving to the Senate on points raised by Dems on their conference call are apparent.
It is up to the progressives to deliver. If the Progressive do not deliver enough No votes, they will not be taken seriously again — apply pressure and the Progressives cave.
Steve Maley
Neil Stevens
Daniel Horowitz
17% Expect Health Care Plan To Lower Costs, 57% Expect Costs to Go Up
izoneguy (Diary) Monday, January 11th at 11:44AM EST (link)I guess the democrats don’t believe in Rasmussen anyway -
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/healthcare/september_2009/health_care_reform
BUT, will they toss the young voters under the bus as well?
Mandatory purchase of health insurance becomes an issue
http://www.sacbee.com/business/story/2452096.html#none
The point cannot be made often enough: Modern liberalism, as embodied in the Obama presidency, is the defender of the status quo. And the status quo is a road to economic ruin. Political forces cannot redistribute the wealth that the economic system does not produce.
All excellent points
Dan Perrin (Diary) Monday, January 11th at 2:47PM EST (link)n/t
Dan do you think they will be on track to get this passed by February?
erod (Diary) Monday, January 11th at 11:49AM EST (link)I think there might be a good chance for that, all they have to do is bribe everyone and cut some more back room deals. I guess the big question is if they can get all this wheeling and dealing done before the SOTU? The Dems don’t have any principles to stand on (surprise, surprise) they’re only waiting to sell themselves out for a deal.
I really don't know, it depends on the strength of the
Dan Perrin (Diary) Monday, January 11th at 2:47PM EST (link)progressives.
If they keep the Senate deal intact, I doubt they will make the State of the Union.
Progressives are following the Pied Piper
medicineman Monday, January 11th at 12:05PM EST (link)Like many of the conservatives/repubs followed G.W early in his presidency. We learned our lesson in ’06 and ’08. It is all about saving the Obama presidency which in turn they think will save the progressive agenda. Good luck
medicine, thanks that explains it
mom2oneson (Diary) Monday, January 11th at 12:20PM EST (link)I couldn’t figure out for anything why they were defending him.
I hope you are wrong
Dan Perrin (Diary) Monday, January 11th at 2:48PM EST (link)I really do.
The first sign will be progressives who say I’m not voting for the bill if — as far as I can tell, I have seen none of that yet.
Just noticed the double P -- Pied Piper
Dan Perrin (Diary) Monday, January 11th at 2:51PM EST (link)nice
The progressive movement in America
davidstone Monday, January 11th at 12:18PM EST (link)is very weak and Obama has no left flank because of it. That is why I never believed progressives would shoot the hostage and kill this bill – while they vote and donate money, progressives are a very weak and overrated political force in contemporary American politics. As long as the white house placates the conservatives (a very vibrant and formidable force in American politics) in their own party, they will get their bill passed.
Harold Meyerson wrote an interesting piece in the Washington Post about the contemporary progressive movement in America and explains why they have very little influence. While I obviously do not share Meyerson’s politics, it is still an interesting read and throws some cold water on the hope that they will stop the health care bill from passing.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/05/AR2010010502989.html
Great, I appreciate the link
Dan Perrin (Diary) Monday, January 11th at 2:50PM EST (link)This does not bode well.
The wailing and gnashing of teeth is
The_Gadfly (Diary) Monday, January 11th at 12:48PM EST (link)all sound and fury, signifying nothing (pardon the mixed metaphors). The fascists know they might not get another shot at this apple. Even though it isn’t EVERYTHING they want, it’s a good start. If it passes, they might get some chances to move it more in the direction they want. If it doesn’t, it WILL be replaced with something else, maybe something that even works. Can’t have that. So they puff up the PR while they screw the proles, just like Lenin and Stalin.
Look, this is Standard Operating Procedure. It’s why The Big 0 has been making big puffy, sort of patriotic speeches about improving national security while sending terrorists to the NYC courts for their eventual release. They’ve always made progress by pompously pontification in one direction while doing the opposite. Until they stop advancing using the technique, it won’t end.
We will see
Dan Perrin (Diary) Monday, January 11th at 2:52PM EST (link)there were only two progressives, as far as I could tell, who voted no the first time.
Pelosi needing a Stupak
bk (Diary) Monday, January 11th at 1:15PM EST (link)What we need in the House are two pairs of Stupak blocs:
- One group that will vote no unless abortion is excluded
- One group that will vote no unless abortion is included
and overlapping with that:
- One group that will vote no unless a public option is excluded
- One group that will vote no unless a public option is included
The larger both groups within each pair are, the better the chance it fails.
Stupak and Anti-Stupak
medicineman Monday, January 11th at 1:22PM EST (link)IMO, you have both of those groups regarding abortion. It is a Sacrament of the Progessive/Liberal movement and Stupak is a down right blasphomy when it comes to “choice”.
Public Option is more of a bumper sticker to most of the rank in file in the house. It is the reason we only here a progressive dem mention it every so often.
If Stupak survives the negotiations…all hell will break loose.
Yes, bk, this is exactly what we need
Dan Perrin (Diary) Monday, January 11th at 2:54PM EST (link)plus throw in a little immigration angst and some of the tax my health plan angst.
Dan, you forgot to add:
throwback59 Monday, January 11th at 1:28PM EST (link)Pelosi’s pompous, piss-poor personality predictably placates prevaricating, pinhead politicians.
LOL, I was hoping someone would
Dan Perrin (Diary) Monday, January 11th at 2:50PM EST (link)pick up the ball and run with it on that,
NICE
Also:
yoyo (Diary) Monday, January 11th at 3:39PM EST (link)Pelosi’s primary purpose prescribes –
– publicly pontificating pernicious policies
– pressing pro-scripted partisan party parasitic puppets, paradisiacally promised profitable Primaries
Nemo me impune lacesset
“No one will provoke me with impunity!”
=============================
Pukin’ Dogs – The Fighting 143
Sans Reproache
=============================
The ‘yoyo’ replaced my cigarettes January 22, 2006….
555.
Third Street (Diary) Monday, January 11th at 2:51PM EST (link)Perfectly put.
“Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.” –Wilkins Micawber, “David Copperfield”
As I've said before, Nanny's ego is in play
louisiana (Diary) Monday, January 11th at 1:36PM EST (link)She knows Hari Kari will receive the most credit if this “historic” healthcare bill is passed. She will do whatever she has to do to get it passed, but it will forever be her yeast infection that she cannot cure.
These are not 37 NO votes...
Puritan (Diary) Monday, January 11th at 1:52PM EST (link)My reading of the Cantor memo is not that there are 37 no votes, but there are 37 members who could possibly be convinced to switch their votes to NO. The key sentences:
“Together with my Whip Team, I have identified 37 Democrats who – we believe – can be persuaded to vote against a final health care agreement. Because each of these 37 Democrats voted for the House bill, we only need to turn 3 votes to prevent a final agreement from passing.”
“If we can convince enough of these 37 Members (along with the 39 Democrats who already voted no) to reconsider and switch their position on the bill, I know that we can defeat this government take-over of our health care before it becomes law.”
Yes, that is accurate, I stand corrected, thank you
Dan Perrin (Diary) Monday, January 11th at 2:56PM EST (link)for mentioning that.
The politics of this, especially if Brown comes close or actually wins will be very clear and hard to ignore, propelling them to NO — I believe.
The next six no votes are the toughest.
In any case
Puritan (Diary) Monday, January 11th at 3:46PM EST (link)the prospects of flipping a few would seem to be pretty good. Plus we have to hold the other 39 at NO…
The fact of the matter is...
looseygoosey Monday, January 11th at 2:30PM EST (link)Republicans haven’t had a new idea since they began purchasing women for sex rather than clubbing them
The relevant question is: will the Progressives stand up for their
Dan Perrin (Diary) Monday, January 11th at 2:57PM EST (link)principles?
What principles?
izoneguy (Diary) Monday, January 11th at 3:04PM EST (link)N/T
The point cannot be made often enough: Modern liberalism, as embodied in the Obama presidency, is the defender of the status quo. And the status quo is a road to economic ruin. Political forces cannot redistribute the wealth that the economic system does not produce.
The principles of...
blooch Monday, January 11th at 3:12PM EST (link)…of…hold on a sec,..
I dunno…Peter or something?
“Lieutenant Dike wasn’t a bad leader because he made bad decisions. He was a bad leader because he made no decisions.”
No, wait..I got it in my sig line:
blooch Monday, January 11th at 3:16PM EST (link)What would Marx do?
“Lieutenant Dike wasn’t a bad leader because he made bad decisions. He was a bad leader because he made no decisions.”
They are not "Progressives"
Bill S (Diary) Monday, January 11th at 6:01PM EST (link)They are Leftists or neo-Socialists or something else that is less of a euphemism. We MUST stop allowing the Left to hijack nice terms to mask their agenda. Using that word just kow-tows to their strategy.
Now back to your regular program.
“It’s such a fine line between stupid, and clever.” – David St. Hubbins
I call 'em progressives...
Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, January 11th at 6:03PM EST (link)…because it ties them to the original fascist Progressive movement that openly organized the attempted genocide of “blacks.”
RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules
Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.
“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder
You should write a short piece on that.
Bill S (Diary) Monday, January 11th at 7:21PM EST (link)I was not aware of it. That deserves some attention.
“It’s such a fine line between stupid, and clever.” – David St. Hubbins
It was the founding mission of planned parenthood
Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, January 11th at 8:45PM EST (link)It was so much so that Margaret Sanger went on record saying she didn’t want that to get out in that population.
RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules
Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.
“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder
G'bye
Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, January 11th at 6:00PM EST (link)Guys, don’t feed the trolls.
RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules
Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.
“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder
Remember folks
davidstone Monday, January 11th at 5:06PM EST (link)Bernie Sanders voted for the senate bill…BERNIE SANDERS and self-described socialist.
That means to kowtow to the Obama administration, a SOCIALIST!!!!!! voted for a bill that restricts abortions in the insurance industry more than what exist today, cuts benefits for middle class families and the elderly, increases taxes for the working class, forbids illegal immigrants working in America for American companies from getting health insurance, puts a tax structure in place that could lead to the demise of many (if not all) private sector unions, mandates that working class people buy a product from one of the most hated industries in the country using taxpayer dollars, punitive fines, and the justice department to execute, still does not provide universal coverage (by 2019 there will still be 6-10% of the population without coverage), drives up premiums for working class families and mandate they buy it, etc. etc. etc.
And the progressive wing of the democratic party is going to stop this bill? Man I hope so but I would not count on it. I do not want to be a sourpuss, but we need to be realistic about the battlefield we are standing on and our chances of winning the near-term battle so we can prepare how to repeal this monstrosity if it passes. Half a trillion in tax increases on a troubled economy, half a trillion in health care cuts, a complete restructuring of American medicine? God help us.
The arguments seem overwhelmingly in favor and
Dan Perrin (Diary) Monday, January 11th at 5:43PM EST (link)that there is a consensus that the Progressives will roll over and play dead.
I hope that is what happens.
I meant in the comment above,
Dan Perrin (Diary) Monday, January 11th at 7:09PM EST (link)I hope that is NOT what happens.