Let’s play a what if game, shall we?
According to a numerous reports, Senator Reid has caved to Senator Lieberman’s demands — NO public option, NO trigger, NO Medicare buy-in.
Senator Reid now needs 60 votes to pull the public option out of the bill. Will all the liberals, the Burris-Sanders-Franken-Brown-Feingold block of Senators, and perhaps others, vote to pull the public option out of the bill?
Burris and Sanders have said publicly they would not vote for any bill without the public option. They likely will not vote to pull the public option.
And will these liberals see from the way Senator Lieberman has whip-sawed the caucus and the White House that if they just hang tough, they can get what they want? In short, will these liberal Senators pull a Lieberman? My guess is they will, yes, they will threaten to vote against any amendment to pull the public option out of the bill.
My guess is also that the Dems would not believe them, and will force a vote to call their bluff. This is where it gets interesting, because the Republicans will have to vote to keep the public option in the bill, and the Dems would have to vote to pull the public option out of the bill. (BIG FUN). But the vote will likely come in the manager’s amendment — so it will not be that clear cut.
(The Republicans would want to keep the public option in to kill the bill with Lieberman’s vote on cloture, and the Dems would want to pull the public option out of the bill, to keep Lieberman’s vote on cloture with them. It’s all a little weird, isn’t it?)
So, does Sen. Reid get 60 votes to pull the public option? To keep our what if scenario alive, let’s say he gets 60. But, Sen. Reid still needs 60 votes to end the filibuster on the bill, which is where the Sanders-Burris-Franken-Feingold-Brown block could threaten to vote to keep the filibuster going — just as Lieberman has done — because the public option (at this point in our what if game) is not in the bill.
It is this threat that has the real teeth — because only one of the liberal Senators need to be firm and unyielding to get the caucus to keep the public option in the bill. Keep the public option in, or I vote no on cloture (to end the filibuster), just like Lieberman has done. This credible threat would eliminate the need the to go through the drama of pulling the public option out of the bill in the first place.
And even if the Dems thread all these needles, they still have the problem of Senator Nelson’s abortion demands. Again, Senator Reid needs 60 votes to put Senator Nelson’s abortion restrictions in the bill, and you can just imagine how the pro-abortion crowd would feel about that. So, does Reid get 60 votes to put the abortion restrictions in the bill, or not? The Senate has already voted down Senator Nelson’s abortion restrictions, and Nelson came no where close to 60 votes.
This is how the progressive [2] DailyKos put the left’s position, this morning:
“there is likely a breaking point for those progressives and they can make life very difficult for Pelosi to reach 218. They’ve bent pretty far thus far, and the pressure on them to pass something, anything, will be extreme. But there could very well be a breaking point for them, and it’s likely to be what Joe Lieberman would strip from the bill, and what Ben Nelson would add to it. That’s part of the equation that Obama, Reid, and Pelosi have to keep in mind.”
This is how the progressive DailyKos put the left’s position, this morning:
“there is likely a breaking point for those progressives and they can make life very difficult for Pelosi to reach 218. They’ve bent pretty far thus far, and the pressure on them to pass something, anything, will be extreme. But there could very well be a breaking point for them, and it’s likely to be what Joe Lieberman would strip from the bill, and what Ben Nelson would add to it. That’s part of the equation that Obama, Reid, and Pelosi have to keep in mind.”
The fundamental problem for the Democrats is that the American public are at a very hard NO on the legislation, and politically the bill has failed. The symptoms of the political failure of ObamaCare are being expressed as the public option and abortion, but tomorrow it could be some other issue — since the political fundamentals of the bill are so bad.
As a general strategy, asking Senators to go through huge voting contortions — to then hurt themselves politically with their voters is not a winning strategy.
Given the foregoing, I doubt that the Dems can pull it all off, so — in the end — I still don’t see ObamaCare getting off the Senate floor.
Steve Maley
KnightsofMalta
I like your analysis
gunnerbs (Diary) Tuesday, December 15th at 6:34AM EST (link)but I don’t think the Rebublicans will have to be on record voting for the public option…they don’t have to vote at all. The Dems need 60 votes, period. There doesn’t have to be 40 votes against, right?
I start with the premise that NO ONE has a right to my Life, Liberty, or Property. Beyond that I’m open to discussion.
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You are correct, the Republicans could vote
Dan Perrin (Diary) Tuesday, December 15th at 8:35AM EST (link)present, it is the Dems that need 60
Once It Passes, They Will Rewrite It
farstar99 (Diary) Tuesday, December 15th at 12:06PM EST (link)If the Republicans don’t know this, they haven’t paid attention.
Not sure what you mean
gunnerbs (Diary) Wednesday, December 16th at 6:15AM EST (link)Every change in the Senate would require 60 votes at some point…even what comes out of a House-Senate reconcilliation committee would need 60 votes to end debate, as I understand it.
Now, I’m not going to put anything past Reid, in order to buy off votes, but they still need 60 votes to change anything. Heck, they need 60 votes to pull the public option/medicare buy-in provision.
I also am not saying the the Republicans have been paying attention…that discussion is in a class by itself
I start with the premise that NO ONE has a right to my Life, Liberty, or Property. Beyond that I’m open to discussion.
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When you send a contribution to the candidate you support, send a copy of the check, or at least a note to his or her opponent, telling them why your money didn’t go there!
Same Old, Same Old
ggross56 (Diary) Tuesday, December 15th at 6:52AM EST (link)It’s a new headline with the same things stuffed inside (minus the Medicare expansion.)
Is it another Reid Vapor Deal?
Dan Perrin (Diary) Tuesday, December 15th at 8:36AM EST (link)Good question.
Lieberman will vote for the bill
jeannieology (Diary) Tuesday, December 15th at 7:01AM EST (link)I would stake my life on it…didn’t we go this way with the vote to discuss the bill?
Lieberman was against it and then voted for it…By tonight they will have worked him over with a ball peen hammer, an old dental drill and some battery cables.
Rahm will show him the heavy duty construction bag and the shovel leaning against the wall in the WH “special room” and the rest will be history as Americans get drive by colonoscopies at 7-11.
www.jeannie-ology.com
I think your right,
Dan Perrin (Diary) Tuesday, December 15th at 8:37AM EST (link)which leaves Nelson on abortion and any other the left to pull a Lieberman over the public option.
60 votes
vamoose Tuesday, December 15th at 7:09AM EST (link)It will never be easier for the Dems to get 60 votes than it is now. Sanders-Burris-Franken-Feingold-Brown know that mid-term elections will thin the ranks of Dem senators and the public option is far less likely to get added later, unless it is by administrative fiat–which is not out of the question with this administration. More government control of health care is the one aspect of health care reform that Dems have been unwilling to compromise, which shows you what the Dems real motive in trying to ram the legislation through is.
Burris will vote with Rahm.
Loren Heal (Diary) Tuesday, December 15th at 7:55AM EST (link)He totally gets Chicago politics.
Lieberman? I think he’s the last remaining sane Democrat. The rest of them are all Alinskiites, as far as I can see. Maybe one of the Nelsons, too, but they’re such weasels it doesn’t matter.
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Join the Concord Project, and follow @lheal, if you dare.
Well, I don't know much about Burris
Dan Perrin (Diary) Tuesday, December 15th at 8:40AM EST (link)but it seems he has a free pass to vote no because of the public option but mostly because he is not running again for the Senate.
Burris is for sale
Stan(ley) Pruss (Diary) Tuesday, December 15th at 8:55AM EST (link)He has Senator on his tombstone and will vote for whoever offers him the best deal.
"You can't buy a politician, but you can RENT one." nt
nessa (Diary) Tuesday, December 15th at 9:02AM EST (link)“If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.”—Samuel Adams
Contributor to Unified Patriots
teh twitter
It is a good analysis from Dan
partyof1 Tuesday, December 15th at 7:52AM EST (link)But I agree with vamoose. Dems will never be closer than right now so they will figure something out.
A single Mary Landrieu vote just to start debate was worth almost a third of a billion dollars to Harry Reid. They are at the one yard line and they’ll give the ball to William the Refrigerator Perry if they have to. They’ll eye gouge, they’ll facemask – ok you get the point.
People are focused on 2010 thinking the Dems will waver on Obamacare because of the upcoming election. They also note the cratering public opinion of this bill. Both of these are true, but I would argue that Dems are focused on a much bigger prize: an eternal majority.
Consider than seniors usually vote Democrat. Why? Social Security and Medicare. But seniors are natural conservatives on grounds that the older you are, the more conservative you are in general. But add those two massive entitlements and boom, instant guaranteed Democratic vote. Of course neither system is fiscally sustainable but Congress folk live in the here-and-now as we all know. The future is someone elses problem.
Dems want to expand that guaranteed bloc to the entire population. When an entitlement has been in place for a few years, people get used to it, doesn’t matter that it’s shockingly unsustainable; a whole generation will grow up with Obamacare and will come to expect it.
This is why Pelosi is willing to lose 30 seats. This is why there has been no limit to what they do, say, bribe, or promise in either house.
Eternal Majority.
I totally agree
marinevet03 Tuesday, December 15th at 9:00AM EST (link)If I’m a looney tune Democrat and the public option leading the way into single payer is the holy grail, then I say the hell with the Senate majority and the House in 2010. If this bill is enacted, the Dems may be out in the wilderness for a few years, but it’s not like it will result in their decimation as a party. In 2004 the GOP had 55 seats and America voted in a President who wasn’t exactly the Great . . . anything. Yet 5 years later, the same nation put in place 60 Democrats and a far-left President (says something about Bush and the GOP, but that’s another point). Who’s to say that the Dems win on the public option, lose Congress completely in 2010, and then don’t win it all back by 2016?
Put it this way: if the situation were reversed, and the GOP could pass a bill, let’s say, reversing the War on Poverty but risk losing Congress for a few years, what would we all be saying here? “No, don’t do it, the holy grail isn’t worth it”? Of course not. We’d say, “Do it. It’s worth it.” The Dems feel the same way.
No we wouldn't...I'd be saying it and railing against the RINOS who would be insisting on preserving the War on Poverty Programs nt
AceInTX (Diary) Tuesday, December 15th at 10:05AM EST (link)The games will get very interesting
bk (Diary) Tuesday, December 15th at 8:07AM EST (link)Until you and someone else above said it, I hadn’t thought about the idea of the GOP forcing all 60 Dems to vote against the public option by either voting for it or voting present, and failing to get Lieberman’s vote if even one of the Dems doesn’t vote for it. That makes this pretty amusing, though I wonder whether Snowe and maybe one or two others would go along with that strategy. As we’ve seen so many times before, each defector gives cover for a Dem, though in this case it’s for a liberal Dem rather than a moderate one so it’s probably not that meaningful.
This twist makes it even more interesting than what it was. And it puts Obama in the position of having to lecture the Democrats to all vote against the public option today. I love it!
Pretty much
Dan Perrin (Diary) Tuesday, December 15th at 8:41AM EST (link)n/t
Too long in the Monkey House
kmacwayne (Diary) Tuesday, December 15th at 8:12AM EST (link)Have you ever noticed the smell at the monkey house when you first walk in? After you’re there for a while the smell doesn’t bother you.
These guys have been in the monkey house too long – this bill smells with or without the public option and abortion demands. The American people know it and are making their voices known – but the monkeys at the zoo aren’t listening.
Call or VISIT your Congressman today and breath some fresh air in their lungs. Call your favorite liberal and explain to him / her exactly what else is in this bill that MSM fails to report. Share the stench. After all, we are our brothers keeper.
Bring on the bananas, it’s going to be a long day.
More incompetence
neoavatara (Diary) Tuesday, December 15th at 8:21AM EST (link)How are the moderates in the Senate going to align with the leftists and progressive in the House? Both sides have drawn lines in the sand, and they are parallel to each other…and don’t seem to cross.
This happens with every major bill. The question is, where is the leadership? Obama, Reid, and Pelosi are having a historic level of failure on this one.
http://neoavatara.com/blog/?p=9078
www.neoavatara.com/blog
And what if there is no
Dan Perrin (Diary) Tuesday, December 15th at 8:43AM EST (link)conference
No conference
ericstenner Tuesday, December 15th at 9:10AM EST (link)It sounds like they are going to try to just pass the same bill and skip the conference report? Pelosi has probably been pulling those strings to prepare for her Christmas gift to the nation.
So the GOP’s attitude needs to be that if you have your opponent pinned to the ground, and you know that if you let him back up he is going to break a chair over your back the next time you turn around, you don’t let him up. You put your knee in his neck.
As soon as the Dems stitch together the tattered remains of this bill and try to pass it through, the GOP should force them to read the whole thing. This is the time to pull out those tricks they have been hanging onto. No way should this be allowed to pass before Christmas.
I wonder if Snowe and company will get the message
bk (Diary) Tuesday, December 15th at 9:11AM EST (link)that if they approve something in the Senate they need to operate under the assumption that it will be enacted as passed. If Pelosi pulls a fast one, this is the end of the line and there will be no “last chance” to vote against it later.
These lines in the sand are as much for us as it is for them...
AceInTX (Diary) Tuesday, December 15th at 10:10AM EST (link)They draw their lines to make us think they can’t reconcile their differences…and also to get the other side of the argument to come their way…eventually both sides will cave…they’ll meet in the middle…and we’ll be left with empty hands and gaping jaws saying…wait a minute…I thought HCR was dead!
I hope I’m wrong…but I’ve seen it before.
Questions?
Vaughn Harold (Diary) Tuesday, December 15th at 9:01AM EST (link)In a daily kos recommended diary this morning entitled “Call to Defeat the Bill – it’s time” (sorry I don’t know how to link) a poster “randomfacts” had this to say about the way forward for the progressive agenda in response to another post:
“Yes there is (a way forward, but)* coverage expansion is scary. Coverage expansion plus public option is uber scary. Public option in isolation is not quite as scary. It is actually quite popular, as the polls show.
What we Progressives want is single payer, which is coverage expansion through public option. Here is a once in a lifetime opportunity to get halfway there– the coverage part. Once that is out of the way and the focus turns to public option, the debate becomes a lot easier.
If the bill dies, not only does the ball not move, but future leaders will be convinced that no comprehensive reform can ever pass. If Bill Clinton had passed universal coverage in 1993, Barack Obama’s bill would be all about public option in 2009. that would have been the sole area of debate. And it would have been a lot less scary because we would already have had 16 years of universal coverage. Public option would have been a minor change.
But because Clinton failed in 1993, we have to do all at once, which is impossible.
You have to be pragmatic. Build up your house one block at a time. Don’t kick the whole thing down because the roof can’t go up at the same time as the foundation.”
My question is will healthcare pass if the progressives are getting some of what they want? And can Lieberman and maybe even some Republicans sign onto this agenda?
Thanks!
* my addition for clarity
That's why some of us think the Dems will pass SOMETHING
bk (Diary) Tuesday, December 15th at 9:08AM EST (link)They believe completely in the slippery slope approach – don’t give up much of anything, grab everything you can, and then use that as a stake in the ground for the next fight to keep pushing and pushing.
They believe we operate the same way (though IMHO we don’t) – that’s why they fight so hard against banning partial birth abortion, arguing that it means the next day after that passes, 12yo girls who get raped by their dads will not have access to morning after pills.
Does anybody REALLY think that a Feingold or a Sanders will vote against the bill if Lieberman votes for it? Even someone as goofy as Sanders knows that they “need” to pass it for the good of big government, and they’ll get to the rest of the details later. I’m sure they can figure out a way to attach some things to a defense spending bill or something.
100% correct
marinevet03 Tuesday, December 15th at 9:15AM EST (link)The Dems see it as a war and single payer as the victory. They’ll get 50% of the way there in the Battle of 2009 but their “armies” will suffer massive casualties. They’ll take a couple of years to regroup and maintain a defensive posture, but then, when their manpower has been replenished, they’ll go over the top again and eventually win.
If you look at the history of the U.S., that is how it has always been with them. Some things have taken longer than others, but in the end they win.
It would seem that the Dems have to pass something
Vaughn Harold (Diary) Tuesday, December 15th at 9:17AM EST (link)after spending almost an entire year on this subject. I hope the Republicans have a counter attack for this agenda!
Thanks for your comment.
Here is praying you are right Dan...
AceInTX (Diary) Tuesday, December 15th at 9:56AM EST (link)I still want to see that steak through it’s heart, that cross on it’s chest, that garlic around it’s neck…and see it buried 6 feet deep in a bed of salt before I breath easy because I’ve declared this thing dead too many times already only to see it rise up from the grave….let’s pray you are right…and we also need to pray we don’t have some RINO pull a last minute rescue just when the steak is about to be driven home
GOP Votes
Mayhem (Diary) Tuesday, December 15th at 12:02PM EST (link)The notion that all 40 Republicans would vote against pulling the public option is ridiculous. With the leadership ham strung on these “message amendments,” why would the suddenly become hypocrites and vote against the greatest “message amendment” of them all… the one they’ve been attacking since the start? If Reid puts an amendment on the floor to cut Medicare and the public option, it will get a good chuck of GOP votes.
That’s just how incompetent we are.
James Madison, Jim DeMint, Margaret Thatcher, Ronald Reagan… You get the picture.