If that gets added to whatever bill Reid concocts, that immediately adds $247B to the CBO cost and definitely kills Snowe’s support I’d think. Would this be the final straw that kills ANY bill from passing? Could Lincoln or Landrieu or even Bayh or Nelson support say a $1.2T bill that adds at least a quarter billion to the deficit?

And on a slightly different topic, why does it seem that no one except Krauthammer brings up the fact that the CBO figure – even if their calculations are perfect – is bogus because it looks at 10 years of collecting money vs only 6 years or so of spending it? (I guess we’ll have a ‘health care lockbox’ now. Let’s hope it has a better ‘key’ than the social security lockbox.) It seems the GOP should be all over this as another sleight of hand.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmNdV0PSRy4

It shows the contrasts between Candidate Obama and President Obama when it comes to transparency.

Let me know what you think.

Thought I’d try to respond to your offer here.

But, hey, cheer up, you know?

They have increased substantially, in my view, to 65%.

The Democratic Senators who vote to end the filibuster will be crushed in the fall elections, and they know they will alienate the independents.

Spending $1 trillion when our dollar is on the edge — in large part because of our spending is a mistake that even a handful of Democrats see clearly, and will not be forgiven.

I hope you’re right about what happens. Let’s just say that at pretty much every key moment in the past nine months we’ve seen the “moderate” Dems cave when push came to shove.

Maybe this time that won’t happen because the election is getting closer and those in the House will feel more pressure from their constituents to water down Obamacare. Or maybe it will be like most of the other times until now.

Reid was certainly embarrassed by the recent cloture vote on the sleight of hand maneuver so maybe there’s hope in the Senate. But I’m sure not holding my breath. Why?
- Well we thought Snowe was 50-50 and she caved on the committee vote. Of course now that she’s been thrown under the bus she might not cave again. Or maybe she will.
- Lieberman came out with all this strong language today, but all he’s really saying is that he won’t stop anything until the very end of the process. (Isn’t that what Snowe said when she voted aye?) He has reason to stick a stick in a few of his D colleagues’ eyes and he may want to watch out for the insurance industry in CT, so maybe he’ll hold out when all is said and done. Or maybe not.

There were earlier votes where congresscritters were told in so many words to name their price in exchange for their vote. Certainly that’s going to be happening again. And people like kos and moveon will say they’ll load up a primary opponent with cash against anyone who votes against Obamacare. Will that plus some stimulus money for the district sway a few people? It won’t take more than a few.

Do you agree with the three possible scenarios I listed earlier?
1 – Obama doesn’t get a HCR bill to sign this year.
2 – He gets one that includes some sort of public option.
3 – He gets one that has no public option trojan horse.

What’s your opinion on the odds of these? I’d say something like
1 – 0%
2 – At least 60% and probably more like 75%.
3 – 25-40%.

I don’t trust any Democrat in Washington, so I figure 2 is more likely than 3. I don’t have any special insight or inside connections – it’s just purely gut feel. Is that okay?