Leaked Internal House Leadership Whip Count Shows 47 Dems at No, 8 Leaning No and 12 Undecided


Plumline’s Greg Sargent has posted the results of a highly confidential House Democratic Party Whip Count which shows 47 Democrats at No on a public option, with another 8 leaning No for a total of 56. A dozen Democratic House members are still undecided. The hard No votes, alone, are enough to kill the bill. The leaked document was produced by the U.S. House Majority Whip’s office.

In a major violation of whipping protocol, the document was shared with Progressive House members who refuse to vote for health reform unless it contains a robust public option. Plumline reports that the Progressive Members of Congress (hard core left-wingers) blamed everyone: the White House and the Democratic leadership for not putting enough pressure on members to vote for the public option, from Plumline:

“House progressives argue that the document should light a fire under Dem leaders. One House progressive tells me he’s convinced that most of the undecideds, and a number of the No votes, can be won over with the right mix of pressure and incentives — which only the House leadership and the White House can provide.”

“Only leadership and the White House can get this done,” this progressive says.

Plumline quotes the spokesperson for James Clyburn, the House Majority Whip: “Kristie Greco would only say: ‘We currently do not have the votes for a robust public option.’”

For a look at how the Dems do not have enough votes in the Senate, click here.

Plumline begins the start of the first push back from Progressives since Senator Durbin (D-IL) blamed liberals for forcing their hand and including the public option — and likely is the start of the new inside the beltway drama headlined by Democrats and now in its second day: Who-gets-blamed-for-the-failure-of-the-public-option?

H/T Joe Guarino


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Like I said in another thread

bk (Diary) Tuesday, October 27th at 6:00PM EST (link)

most of them can be bought off. In addition to the perks that Pelosi can offer, the White House can make billions of dollars suddenly appear for district projects.

One House progressive tells me he’s convinced that most of the undecideds, and a number of the No votes, can be won over with the right mix of pressure and incentives — which only the House leadership and the White House can provide.”

Porkulus II To The Rescue of the MAObama Hell-th Care Bill

Ausonius (Diary) Tuesday, October 27th at 6:16PM EST (link)

Remember that MAObama cannot fail!

The superbad radicals will do anything, including selling their grandmothers into slavery, to force this through, so that The One will have a victory.

So Porkulus II will be readied: off-the-budget spending to save AMERICAN JOBS, Dems to the rescue FIGHTING FOR WORKING FAMILIES!

And long-term the decline of America will continue: I want to believe none of this will happen, and want to be pleasantly surprised, but I am skeptical. Too many things are under their control: it is hard to believe that a large group of Dems will suddenly become conservatives and vote no on this.

Ausonius: 310-395 A.D. Teacher, Poet, Consul, General, Farmer.

Personal Tutor to the future St. Paulinus of Nola and to young Gratian, heir to the throne during the turbulent final years of the Western Roman Empire. When his former student Gratian was assassinated, Ausonius threw up his hands and retired to his farm in Gaul. Rome was captured by barbarians 14 years after his death.

Cato@rock.com

 

bk, so do you want to bet?

Dan Perrin (Diary) Tuesday, October 27th at 6:17PM EST (link)

you name the wager

As I said in another thread ... no

bk (Diary) Tuesday, October 27th at 6:41PM EST (link)

bk- I think the expression is something like

Scope (Diary) Tuesday, October 27th at 7:18PM EST (link)

put your money where your mouth is, and all that. You have alot of negativism to say, you are so sure everyone can be bought off, and that some sort of Government Healthcare will win. Even if you don’t believe what Dan Perrin has to say, with some inside knowledge, have you read what so many others have said also. Have you missed the part about the tremendous infighting between those leftists that won’t vote for passage if it doesn’t have a robust public option, as opposed to other not so far lefties, that won’t vote for passage if it does include the public option. Some Democrats won’t vote for the bill if it includes government funding of abortions, some other Dems won’t vote for it if it cuts medicare payments, or if the doctors will all have to accept medicare reduced payments. The only goal for the hard left is to gain Government control of our medical system, which will give them massive control of all our lives, in every way. I tend to believe, that not only Lieberman, but at least some other Democrats will not vote for our country’s demise. They would be the old fashioned Democrats, who at one time really were for the little people, misguided as they may have been. They cannot get the votes in either the House or the Senate, without major major changes, and, if they change one thing to suit some, they anger the other faction. And, again, after next Tuesday, they will lose even more support within the Democratic ranks.

So two people aren't allowed to disagree around here without turning it into a wager?

bk (Diary) Tuesday, October 27th at 8:25PM EST (link)

I’m not sure why a couple of people seem to be taking my opinion as some sort of personal insult that I need to back up with a wager of some sort. I’m supposed to put up collateral if I want to offer an opinion?

I hope you’re right about what happens. Let’s just say that at pretty much every key moment in the past nine months we’ve seen the “moderate” Dems cave when push came to shove.

Maybe this time that won’t happen because the election is getting closer and those in the House will feel more pressure from their constituents to water down Obamacare. Or maybe it will be like most of the other times until now.

Reid was certainly embarrassed by the recent cloture vote on the sleight of hand maneuver so maybe there’s hope in the Senate. But I’m sure not holding my breath. Why?
- Well we thought Snowe was 50-50 and she caved on the committee vote. Of course now that she’s been thrown under the bus she might not cave again. Or maybe she will.
- Lieberman came out with all this strong language today, but all he’s really saying is that he won’t stop anything until the very end of the process. (Isn’t that what Snowe said when she voted aye?) He has reason to stick a stick in a few of his D colleagues’ eyes and he may want to watch out for the insurance industry in CT, so maybe he’ll hold out when all is said and done. Or maybe not.

There were earlier votes where congresscritters were told in so many words to name their price in exchange for their vote. Certainly that’s going to be happening again. And people like kos and moveon will say they’ll load up a primary opponent with cash against anyone who votes against Obamacare. Will that plus some stimulus money for the district sway a few people? It won’t take more than a few.

Do you agree with the three possible scenarios I listed earlier?
1 – Obama doesn’t get a HCR bill to sign this year.
2 – He gets one that includes some sort of public option.
3 – He gets one that has no public option trojan horse.

What’s your opinion on the odds of these? I’d say something like
1 – 0%
2 – At least 60% and probably more like 75%.
3 – 25-40%.

I don’t trust any Democrat in Washington, so I figure 2 is more likely than 3. I don’t have any special insight or inside connections – it’s just purely gut feel. Is that okay?

My assessment in early September was

Dan Perrin (Diary) Tuesday, October 27th at 9:19PM EST (link)

that the odds of nothing happening were 40%.

They have increased substantially, in my view, to 65%.

The Democratic Senators who vote to end the filibuster will be crushed in the fall elections, and they know they will alienate the independents.

Spending $1 trillion when our dollar is on the edge — in large part because of our spending is a mistake that even a handful of Democrats see clearly, and will not be forgiven.

 
 
 
 

I was responding to your comments on my earlier

Dan Perrin (Diary) Tuesday, October 27th at 9:22PM EST (link)

post, that you would bet it will pass.

Thought I’d try to respond to your offer here.

But, hey, cheer up, you know?

I'll be happy if you're correct :-)

bk (Diary) Tuesday, October 27th at 10:02PM EST (link)
 
 

“Pressure.” That’s Obamanese for threats.

farstar99 (Diary) Tuesday, October 27th at 7:26PM EST (link)

As for the bribes, they’d better be good, because anyone who takes one is out of political life forever.

 
 

Who is daddy?

E Pluribus Unum (Diary) Tuesday, October 27th at 6:15PM EST (link)

That’s right, it’s me. I’ve been calling this one for months.

Will not pass the House in any form. The Town Halls did it.

Kill the Terrorists
Protect the Borders
Punch the Hippies h/t IMAO

You are right EPU-

Scope (Diary) Tuesday, October 27th at 7:23PM EST (link)

If they called for a vote before August, even with a vapor bill, they would have had more of a chance then they do now. After next Tuesday, the corpse of Obamacare will finally get it’s funeral.

from your lips........

LDahl752 (Diary) Wednesday, October 28th at 1:29PM EST (link)

to God’s ears!

Linda D, Henderson NV

 
 
 

The last I checked, the dems had 277 seats in the House

suzieQ (Diary) Tuesday, October 27th at 6:28PM EST (link)

277 -56 = 221. That is still enough for it to pass (assuming a simple majority vote, and assuming that some of these 56 don’t change their minds). I wouldn’t start dancing on the grave of Obamacare yet. We still have our work cut out for us.

“Andy Stern, the head of the Service Employees International Union, is the union leader who probably best understands the challenge of the world market and the need to make American union members productive in the face of world competition.” – Newt Gingrich
Newt Gingrich Co-Sponsored a Global Warming Bill Calling for ‘International Agreement on Population Growth’

“I would have signed the assault weapon ban that came to his desk. I said I would have supported that and signed a similar bill in our state.” – Mitt Romney 2008
Gun Owners Of America on Mitt Romney

The only have 256 currently

scarlos (Diary) Tuesday, October 27th at 6:42PM EST (link)

We only need to swing 40 votes in order to beat anything the Democrats try to pass, assuming we’re united in opposition.

That’s no reason to stop at 40 however, the worse this shows for the Democrats, the better

Socialism is Oligarchy in disguise

 

256-177

barry915barry (Diary) Tuesday, October 27th at 6:48PM EST (link)

With 2 vacant seats, 1 leaning D (CA-10) and 1 leaning R (NY-23)

Or at least C

ceili_dancer (Diary) Tuesday, October 27th at 7:09PM EST (link)

Very true, dancer

barry915barry (Diary) Tuesday, October 27th at 7:14PM EST (link)

And sorry to step on your toes after-the-fact, scarlos. Barry

Nah idc

scarlos (Diary) Tuesday, October 27th at 7:39PM EST (link)

Honestly it’s something I do alot.

Socialism is Oligarchy in disguise

 
 
 
 

The Dems Haven't Had 277 House Seats Since 1978 (nt)

IJB Tuesday, October 27th at 10:18PM EST (link)
 

Video from Senate Republicans

Sean Hackbarth (Diary) Wednesday, October 28th at 11:54AM EST (link)

Dan, you’ve been closely following the health care debate in Congress. You might like this video shown to Senate Republicans, yesterday, during their weekly lunch. These videos are rarely seen outside the lunch.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmNdV0PSRy4

It shows the contrasts between Candidate Obama and President Obama when it comes to transparency.

Let me know what you think.

 

Progressives

mycountry Wednesday, October 28th at 11:54AM EST (link)

Another word for Socialist A-holes!

 

Dan, will this be a key deciding moment in the process?

bk (Diary) Wednesday, October 28th at 12:56PM EST (link)

Won’t the Republicans bring up as an amendment to any bill the $247B slight of hand measure that Reid got stuffed on? Would Reid be able to prevent its being offered? If it came up for a vote, I suspect it would pass with virtually all the members who killed cloture voting for it. And how could the lefty Democrats vote against it? “We want to say we’re saving $500B in Medicare/aid waste/fraud abuse and then separately reauthorize half of that waste/fraud/abuse.” Uh, right.

If that gets added to whatever bill Reid concocts, that immediately adds $247B to the CBO cost and definitely kills Snowe’s support I’d think. Would this be the final straw that kills ANY bill from passing? Could Lincoln or Landrieu or even Bayh or Nelson support say a $1.2T bill that adds at least a quarter billion to the deficit?

And on a slightly different topic, why does it seem that no one except Krauthammer brings up the fact that the CBO figure – even if their calculations are perfect – is bogus because it looks at 10 years of collecting money vs only 6 years or so of spending it? (I guess we’ll have a ‘health care lockbox’ now. Let’s hope it has a better ‘key’ than the social security lockbox.) It seems the GOP should be all over this as another sleight of hand.

oops I meant to say adds a quarter trillion to the deficit -nt

bk (Diary) Wednesday, October 28th at 12:58PM EST (link)
 

oops I meant to say adds a quarter trillion to the deficit

bk (Diary) Wednesday, October 28th at 12:57PM EST (link)
 

They don't care about debt

LDahl752 (Diary) Wednesday, October 28th at 1:38PM EST (link)

or deficits. All they want to do is destroy our economy even further than it has already been. With more and more millions of citizens dependent on the central gov’t for their very lives, they will obtain more and more power. Washington D.C. has been taken over by a sickness that only having most of them defeated in their next re-election bid can cure. There is no vaccine or message which will reach them, other than major electoral defeats. This includes R’s as well as D’s. In spite of the townhall meetings and tea parties, they still believe “they know best.” They don’t. They answer only to the special interests and lobbyists who are supporting them or wooing them with gifts, trips, perks of all sorts. Get them out of there! Send them home! And, the sooner, the better! Potomac Fever runs deep and wide in that cesspool we call our Capitol.

Linda D, Henderson NV

 

PROGRESSIVE

beanerecmo Wednesday, October 28th at 2:13PM EST (link)

Would people stop calling these fascist social welfare collectivists – progressives. They are regressives in every sense of the word. They want to institute the thoughts and tenets that Marx, Lenin, Hitler, Mao, Stalin, Ayers, Alinsky, Chomsky et al embrace.

I was a liberal until I learned to read, got a job and was mugged by willful tax and spend regressives (aka progressives) and naive acolytes.