Charlie Cook: Big Election Wave Alert “should terrify Democrats”


If you are wondering if Charlie Cook has pulled the fire alarm and is frantically jumping up and down with a bull horn trying to get the Democrats out of the building before many get hurt — wonder no more.

Charlie Cook in the National Journal has gone far past pulling the fire alarm — he is in full NATIONWIDE EMERGENCY BROADCAST SIGNAL mode. (Red on the domestic terror alert scale.)

The question is will the Democrats listen, or keep on keeping on, doing the Obamacare cram-down?

If the the Democrats were acting rationally, they would just STOP. They would work on the economy and work on their own political recovery, not on the toxic Obamacare.

But the three horsemen of the Democratic Apocalypse will not stop: Obama-Pelosi-Waxman keep pushing Obamacare. The President is even addressing a joint session of Congress on health care reform! He was invited by Speaker Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Reid, no less. (Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll puts Reid at a 36% approval (52% unfavorable) rating in his home state.)

Why is the Obamacare cram-down irrational political behavior? Here is Charlie Cook’s lead in the National Journal:

Listening to two briefings — one by a Democratic pollster who had just conducted a survey for a group favoring health care reform, the other by a Republican pollster more skeptical of the reform plans — I felt as if I were hearing a pair of reports by the National Transportation Safety Board on the same plane crash. But in sorting through the problems facing President Obama and congressional Democrats, focusing too narrowly on their disastrous handling of health care would be a mistake.

And Cook’s close:

With 14 months to go before the 2010 midterm election, something could happen to improve the outlook for Democrats. However, wave elections, more often than not, start just like this: The president’s ratings plummet; his party loses its advantage on the generic congressional ballot test; the intensity of opposition-party voters skyrockets; his own party’s voters become complacent or even depressed; and independent voters move lopsidedly away. These were the early-warning signs of past wave elections. Seeing them now should terrify Democrats.

Oh, the horror!


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Dems are in denial

illinois (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 3:32AM EST (link)

Today I got another fishy propaganda letter from Obama’s machine. I’m still not sure how they got my email address. Anyway—-it ranked right up there with Baghdad Bob’s PR. You all remember when we’d see the tv wall to wall with leveling Iraq——and then Baghdad Bob would get on the air and contradict everything our military spokesmen would say. Well, that’s what the Obama letter sounded like—-they’re winning, happy, doing great, etc, etc. horse hockey! But, I don’t think the Dems will accept the reality of their situation. I think they’ll fight to the bitter end to jam thru anything they can—-because they have such arrogance about having the majority.

IL - Fishy e-mail follow-up question

SoFiMil (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 6:40AM EST (link)

Did you get the unsolicited fishy e-mails approx. the 2nd week of August when this issue first became widely known? Also, did you get unsolicited e-mails from the White House a few months ago, at least one of which included talking points on Sonia Sotomayor that others reported receiving? Is this the first e-mail you’ve received from the WH since the 2nd week in August?

Thanks for the info!

www.suvstrategery.blogspot.com

Kowalaski re the most technologically savvy administration ever

SoFiMil (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 6:49AM EST (link)

IL, did you try to remove your name off the WH distro-list since Gibbs announced the “tweaks” a few weeks ago?

www.suvstrategery.blogspot.com

 
 

They're Too Arrogant to See Their Doom

farstar99 (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 7:21AM EST (link)

They’re like Hitler in early ’45.
Doom is obvious, but ego clouds the mind.

Pride and the fall?

Dan Perrin (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 8:04AM EST (link)

and all of that.

 
 

To continue the failed policies of the past eight

6eorge Jetson (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 8:29AM EST (link)

months is folly.

 
 

The Latinos have a saying..

Dan Perrin (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 3:42AM EST (link)

I’m coming back from where you are going.

There political behavior is irrational. And they really, really don’t see what is so obvious to everyone else.

In addition to being irrational, they are committing the cardinal sin of politics: they actually believe their own propaganda.

 

Charlie

Third Street (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 4:30AM EST (link)

I keep up with Cook Political Report as a baseline for where the GOP really stands in the congressional races. I like to stick to conservative estimates of potential House pickups, not wanting to count unhatched chickens and so forth; therefore — being that Charlie Cook IS a partisan Democrat — I figure that any district HE says is in play for the GOP is most definitely a serious race.

Over the last couple of weeks I’ve seen Cook move an amazing number of Democrat seats into “in play” status, seats I don’t recall ever being in serious trouble for the Dems in a decade or longer, if ever: Brian Baird in WA-3; Rick Boucher in VA-9; Dennis Cardoza in CA-18; Bart Gordon in TN-6; Allen Boyd in FL-2, to name but a few.

(Keep in mind Charlie is the guy who waited till mid-summer to grudgingly move the New Jersey governor’s race from “Solid D” to “Toss-Up”.)

“Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.” –Wilkins Micawber, “David Copperfield”

 

I hope people dont get their hopes up too high

kyle8 (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 6:14AM EST (link)

The Democrats are not likely to lose much more than the average that the party in power loses in mid term elections.

They still have enormous built in advantages. Consider, they will get all of the re-energized union vote, All of the black vote, Acorn and other organizations have been given millions in stimulus money to canvass for Democrats, They still have most of the media in their pocket. My prediction is maybe 20 house seats change for the Republicans and they MIGHT pick up one net Senate seat, but might actually lose a seat due to so many retiring GOP senators.

“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle

I disagree

Dan Perrin (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 8:06AM EST (link)

the Democrats have not been listening to the public on health care, not changed a thing, and keep rubbing the public’s face in HR 3200 by repeatedly pledging to pass it and working overtime how to overcome the massive public opposition.

Remember, HillaryCare cost the Dems 56 seats. That is a whole lot more than 20 and it cost the Dems their control of Congress.

I Too Disagree With Kyle

IJB Friday, September 4th at 11:52AM EST (link)

What Kyle’s pessimism is ignoring is the same thing lots of people ignored in 1994 – the Dem electorate is getting *demoralized* right now.

It’s a massive confluence of factors going into that – the far Left is seeing Single Payer go down in flames (likely dooming any further attempts at trying it for 20 years), and is seeing nothing done to silence sites like this, Glenn Beck, and talk radio via a ‘Fairness Doctrine’; the Union Bosses aren’t getting Card Check; the enviro-nutters aren’t getting Cap n’ Tax; the Latino La Raza types aren’t getting Amnesty; state government workers have seen *Democrat-controlled* state legislatures furlough and lay them off; so-called gay rights advocates are getting *nothing* from Obama; moderate and conservative Dems are seeing their taxes raised; the anti-war far left has seen no serious pull-out in Iraq and a *build-up* in Afghanistan! etc.

When you look at all this, what is the incentive for even Democrat activists to show up in 2010, let alone rank-and-file Dem voters?!

Contrast that with Republicans, conservatives, libertarians and Independents who are mad as [heck!] and fired up to take it out on somebody.

If current trends continue the way they are, Kyle’s prediction is half (or less!) of what is likely to happen on election night in 2010.

I happen to agree with the statement

Richard Mullins (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 12:07PM EST (link)

that just simply 20 is way low and the blowback is really strong against this bill. Stronger than it was in 1993. With the really good use of the internet as well as cameras and other recording devices, the left just can’t stop the tidal wave effect from happening. The epic fail of this administration to think that we don’t know what their doing, is also in play.

Richard Phillip Mullins BlogThe Squash Satire SiteNews on Happy Jet Airlines
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Joe Biden is like a Decrepit Park owner with a Meth lab that happens to not only be a dealer but a user.

Let’s Bankrupt the Democratic paty. Make spend all the money to defend thier candidates.

 
 

I hope you guys are right, but the Democrats will be a lot stronger closer to election time.

kyle8 (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 2:05PM EST (link)

that always happens.

“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
Kyle

 
 

ACORN is not a help

lukematthews (Diary) Saturday, September 12th at 4:32PM EST (link)

The average person is not seeing an ACORN worker or ad as a positive. Big labor may be rooting for them, but their rank and file is starting to get annoyed. Reid is toast. We may not win the Senate but we will get close. Especially if the healthcare takeover is passed. People who are otherwise not political are becoming more and more engaged. This is a changing moment.

 
 

Not disputing the collective political wisdom of so many, but

USNJIMRET (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 6:45AM EST (link)

I have a nagging little voice that refuses to accept that the Obama/Pelosi/Reid etal, cabal of the left is going to quietly suffer **any** erosion of their power.
Not sure how, but some ‘crisis’ or other will suddenly demand a well planned and heavy handed response by entrenched powers.
As noted earlier, the left has come to believe their own propaganda, including a completely false belief that a majority of Americans really want the crap they’re selling.

The historical precedence for a massive shift in

Dan Perrin (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 8:09AM EST (link)

seats is HillaryCare, where the Democrats lost control of Congress.

And now, Democrat Charlie Cook is essentially warning his pals in highly animated language that there is a world of hurt coming.

It really is unprecedented.

This is not just the normal blip of mid-term election losses of the President’s party losing 20 or so seats.

This is really, very different.

The Socialists/Marxists/Anarchists might just get a revolution,

The_Gadfly (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 9:37AM EST (link)

just not the one for which they were hoping and planning.

Their plan is to time the stimulus spending to create a false recovery

Beaglescout (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 9:44AM EST (link)

They want to time it for just long enough before the elections that their flunkies in the media can blast the “good news” far and wide, and they can hold on to power. That’s why their opposition needs to take official actions deliberately and make sure it is not just about the short term economy. On the unofficial side, we the people need to swarm the zone.

“A nation which can prefer disgrace to danger is prepared for a master, and deserves one.”

–Alexander Hamilton
 
 
 
 

kyle8 is right up above is right ... let's not get cocky.

Martin Knight (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 7:16AM EST (link)

It’s more than a year out and within that time, Obama and Democrats in the House and Senate are going to be funneling massive amounts of tax payer dollars into the unions, ACORN, MoveOn and other liberal/Democratic front groups.

And let’s not forget the media.

Already, news networks are testing the waters to see if they can get away with giving blatantly refusing to run ads and campaign messages that contradict Obama and Democratic Party talking points. This is in addition to the planned October Surprises and not to mention the new practice of Democratic Prosecutors and DAs bringing trumped-up charges against Republican incumbents just around Election time.

In other words, the Democrats have massive inbuilt advantages, not least of which is elected Republicans’ penchant for self-sabotage at the worst possible moments.

So let’s not get cocky, or start saying nonsense like “Stick a fork in him – he’s done …” {NOTE: I will urge the big dogs to blam with extreme prejudice anyone who uses that phrase.} It’s way too far out and if a week is a long time in politics, what is a year?

And when the economy "recovers"

SoFiMil (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 7:21AM EST (link)

from “very high” to “high” it will be played as “all because of” Obama instead of “inspite of” Obama.

www.suvstrategery.blogspot.com

 

I hope the economy gets better

Dan Perrin (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 8:16AM EST (link)

but the commercial real estate crisis is just bubbling up and the dollar is due for a major devaluation and that could spark inflation, plus the fact the Congress refuses to lower the deficit, which is also putting massive downward pressure on the dollar, and the fact that we are printing hundreds of billions of dollars — all leads me to believe that the economy will not get any better.

I hope I am wrong about the dollar and the economy and the coming commercial real estate crisis.

CRE is an implosion waiting to happen and

mbecker908 (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 8:57AM EST (link)

Wells Fargo’s 1-4 Family portfolio is in the crapper & I’m probably going to write a diary on this subject tomorrow, thank you for ticking me on this Dan.

WF’s delinquency rates for 1-4 Family housing is 14% v a national avg of about 5% and their 90+ day delinquency rate is about 10% v. 2% nationally. Their commercial porfolio 90+ day delinquencies are 6 times the national avg.

Bottom line, not good.

Lots of questions on that, but I'll wait for the diary. (nt)

The_Gadfly (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 9:36AM EST (link)
 
 

Martin is correct

Jack_Savage (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 8:23AM EST (link)

I, for one, never thought the people of America would even consider electing Barack Obama, yet here we are.
We need to continue to fuel the passion, talk to our neighbors, and speak without fear. Every single day. We give no ground, and slowly take back what was once ours, starting in our own front lawn and working out in concentric circles.
As Martin pointed out, we have a massive, well funded machine working against us. It is no time to let down, or even think of celebrating. That’s why we play the game on Sundays, folks.

To be honest, I am more nervous than ever – it is WAY too early to predict what will happen in 2010. If this were August of next year, I would maybe feel differently , but it is not. We need to remember that.

 

Let's not forget--Ds reregistering as Rs in 2010 primaries...

smagar (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 9:36AM EST (link)

so they can vote in the GOP candidate that’s least likely to win.

I’m guessing that many of the imperiled Dems won’t have much of a primary. If that’s the case, the best way for Dem voters to serve “the cause” is to vote for the easiest mark in the Republican primary.

In Az 8th, we now have THREE R candidates announced to run against Giffords, the D who currently holds the seat. With that many people on the ballot, it’s easy for the Dems to divide and conquer.

Remember—the Dems are excellent tacticians.

“Who will stand/On either hand/And guard this bridge with me?” (Macaulay)

I Already Explained To You Elsewhere That That Is Not Going To Happen...

IJB Friday, September 4th at 11:56AM EST (link)

…In anything even close to a large scale.

Too many people here have let the Democrat Party become the Boogeyman in their minds.

The Democrats aren’t nearly as good as they think they are. Don’t pay them the compliment of agreeing with their self-image.

 
 
 

The economy recovering could pull Obama

Dan Perrin (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 8:14AM EST (link)

out of a complete disaster.

But I have seen this before, after HillaryCare, and when both Cook and Sabato are in agreement, and the Democrats show absolutely no sign of changing anything they are doing — they keep doing the same thing, the Obamacare cram down, they will reap the whirl wind.

This is different even than that.

The_Gadfly (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 9:49AM EST (link)

There were no conservative marches on DC either for Reagan or against Hillarycare. Both of those were fought with support from the grassroots, but being driven by high powered leadership. But in less than a week there is going to be a huge, grassroots driven march with a rally on the mall. This is different. This is new. This is scary and exciting all at the same time. Exciting because there is the smell of real change in the air. Scary, because when the revolution starts, you are never sure exactly where it is going to end.

If Democrats had the sense God gave to dogs, there would be a one week hiatus where they said absolutely nothing while they started to think this through. They may be dead meat no matter what they do (excoriated by the left if they cave, vehemently hated by moderates and conservatives if they don’t, and voted out of office either way), but even dead meat should have an opportunity to decide how it wants to die, not simply be trapped.

 

"The economy recovering could pull Obama" - Uhm, Dan...

Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 10:39AM EST (link)

How does the economy recover? What action is being taken anywhere that is going to change the baseline unemployment numbers and spur growth above a fraction of a percent? This doesn’t even address the structural monetary disasters coming from raising the global capital markets to pay an unsustainable entitlement portfolio.

Has France and Germany managed to get yearly growth above 1% and unemployment below 9% recently? Did Japan dig their way out of the lost decade using the fiscal policies we are using?

Let’s not forget that ARM bomb that is ticking away that will begin a slow explosion in 2010.

Top that off with the economic tsumani that would occur if either Obamacare or Cap-n-tax pass. There is no recovery on the horizon. Plan for Obama to give his own version of the “Malaise” speech sometime in the future.

“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy

Bingo! - That Was Going To Be My Point Too

IJB Friday, September 4th at 12:00PM EST (link)

There is *nothing* to drive an economic “recovery” at this point.

In fact, Obama and the Dems may be looking at the worst scenario possible – an almost microscopic “recovery” in Q4, followed by the 2nd half of a “double-dip” recession in Q1 or Q2 of 2010.

If nothing else, like you and MBecker, I continue to hear whispers of bad things about the housing/mortgage market, and the foreclosure crisis appears to be far from over.

This economy is far from getting to the point where a meaningful and sustainable recovery is possible.

 
 
 

Dems are clever

Joe Cor (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 8:58AM EST (link)

and Republicans are not. That should be remembered. Reaching out, honorable, newtoneian Republicans may yet win the day for Barak.

I already see a health care trojan horse that could leave us with a public option while nobody’s looking. This talk of a “trigger” that would enact a public option seems less of a face-saving measure to give the Democrats a way back from the brink than it is a way to let Barak impose a public option unilaterally when he judges that insurance companies haven’t lived up to the terms of the trigger. Any bets on how liberally he’ll interpret the imposition of that “trigger?” Nobody seems concerned about this. Even Charles Krauthammer last night on Special Report seemed to think this is not big deal. This could be just the way to open the door to socialism while conservatives are caught napping.

Obama’s also starting to rise in the polls again. His summer drop may be over. If he tilts his head thoughtfully to one side and utters enough banalities to Congress, he might be riding high once again in no time.

The economy could turn around just in time for the middterms, and Barak might claim all the credit for it.

There is lots and lots to be scared of out there. The danger isn’t over by a long shot.

 

The economy is recovering. . . somewhat

dsmurf (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 9:50AM EST (link)

thanks to the 2003 tax cuts– Bush tax cuts— and they’ll expire in time and the effects will be felt for the presidential election.

The trick is to turn “Obama” into a five letter name like he made Bush’s name a four letter word.
So what would do that? Green jobs = what jobs?
Jobs saved = derisive laughter
Cap and Trade = AB32 California’s green mandate that made the unemployment rate in CA go up well over 10%while the national
Czars= people who couldn’t get green jobs and Obama bailed them out
Obama/Pelosi/Reid = anti bipartisans
Cash for clunkers = depressed car sales and death mobiles for the next three years
Stimulus bill right away = just before the 2010 elections

 

Pelosi giving up the gavel, I'd pay to see that

archer52 Friday, September 4th at 11:22AM EST (link)

Nothing would please me more, politically, than to see Pelosi hand over her gavel.

Of course, they would have to pry it from her bony, witch-like fingers, and probably end up tazing her to get it. (Something else that would be pleasing to see. The question would then be, can her face show the shock, after all that work?)

It would be almost an UFC pay-per-view event! Boehner rolling around the the ground with Pelosi throwing elbows at her head, while she is trying to gouge is eyes out. “Give me that!” “No, I’m queen.”
“Give it to me!” “No, you go to h**l you over tanned metro-sexual! And quit biting me!”

 

Desperation in New York

Castor (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 1:54PM EST (link)

Dems must be getting desperate in bluesome New York if Eliot, Spitzer, the star of Whoretergate is thinking about running statewide.

 

Is it just me or is the "Malaise" speech for Obama

erod (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 4:18PM EST (link)

going to be Wednesday’s primetime joint session of Congress speech? Honestly, this speech couldn’t have come at a worse time in his presidency, unemployment numbers just came out and they’re bad and he’s speaking to school children the day before, which has some parents teed off. In addition, because of the two mentioned factors above I believe his approval numbers are bound to take another hit. This is the lead in to his “big speech” on Wednesday to “cure” the economic woes and “restore” the nation’s integrity. Is it just me or do I sound crazy, when I think people facing tough times aren’t going to appreciate this president addressing us, telling us to sacrifice and allow the government to spend more money that we don’t have? Ladies and Gentlemen, this is the “Malaise” speech on steroids.

 

Is it just me or is the "Malaise" speech for Obama

erod (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 4:18PM EST (link)

going to be Wednesday’s primetime joint session of Congress speech? Honestly, this speech couldn’t have come at a worse time in his presidency, unemployment numbers just came out and they’re bad and he’s speaking to school children the day before, which has some parents teed off. In addition, because of the two mentioned factors above I believe his approval numbers are bound to take another hit. This is the lead in to his “big speech” on Wednesday to “cure” the economic woes and “restore” the nation’s integrity. Is it just me or do I sound crazy, when I think people facing tough times aren’t going to appreciate this president addressing us, telling us to sacrifice and allow the government to spend more money that we don’t have? Ladies and Gentlemen, this is the “Malaise” speech on steroids.

I'm guessing the speech to a joint session

redneck_hippie (Diary) Friday, September 4th at 4:26PM EST (link)

in congress will be forever known as the Christmas in September speech. He’ll (continue to) lie through his teeth and convince the gullible he intends to cut the deficit while being all things to all people. Those who are unhappy about “shared sacrifice” to enhance democrat political careers, will be demonized and scapegoated and reminded that we are nothing special, in fact we are to reform our selfish, capitalist-pig ways.


Activists Taking Action: Unified Patriots

 
 

The rules have changed

student Saturday, September 5th at 12:33AM EST (link)

Cook is making a fundamental error. He is assuming that because the Democrats are acting arrogantly to cram unacceptable values down the throats of the vast majority of the population they will lose political control. Wrong. The census is centered in Rahm’s office and will be manned by Acorn and similar cronies – allowing the manufacture of seats. The borders are open and Amnesty is certain to occur – they have already to count illegals as equal to legals in the census – delivering tens of millions of compliant votes. By using his Trojan Horse system to nationalize the healthcare system Obama can reduce doctors, nurses, technicians – 15% of the working population – to be dependent on the government and the Democrats for their livelihood, the same electoral servitude as teachers and postal workers already experience. This is not about losing power in a democratic election, it is about ending democracy and establishing a permanent Democratic Party control. Period. End of story. End of America.

For some on the left this is true

Dan Perrin (Diary) Saturday, September 5th at 9:12AM EST (link)

But I think that you can count on the elected politicians to act in their own self interest, which is, now, to do nothing.

 
 

I'm cautiously optimistic

Vegas_Rick (Diary) Saturday, September 12th at 4:49PM EST (link)

Like many of you, I never thought Americans would fall for Obama’s shtick. But, some did. Then again, on inauguration day, if anyone would have told me that over 1 million Americans would march on the capital to protest his policies 8 months later, I would have recommended urinalysis.

I’m so proud of my fellow countrymen! If we can keep it up, I think we can save our Republic.

“God is great, beer is good and people are crazy.”- Billy Currington

“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful people with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan ‘press on’ has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race.” Calvin Coolidge.