The recent announcement by the White House that they are dropping/will accept no public option in their health reform bill has cause the already comatose Intrade market prediction of passage of a federal government run health insurance plan (public option) to completely tank, going from 35% chance of passage to a 14% chance of passage.
This is the single best predictor of the future known to exist — people making bets with real money about the outcome of the future.
Check out the straight down line on this graph.
The exact question Intrade is asking is:
Will a federal government run health insurance plan (a public option) be approved in the US?
A federal government run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009
Steve Maley
KnightsofMalta
Dan Spencer
Moe Lane
Dan McLaughlin
As a premed student, I should be buying that as a hedge
athelas (Diary) Monday, August 17th at 9:35PM EST (link)Although I don’t think you’ll win that contract if a “co-op” with essentially the same level of government support is passed.
http://ssmag.wordpress.com
The intent on the part of those pushing the
Dan Perrin (Diary) Tuesday, August 18th at 8:39AM EST (link)co-ops is to clearly rename the public plan co-ops, as the U.S. Senate Majority Leader Reid said, the real question is, can the
Dems pull it off — as a political matter — given the crumbling of Obamacare