…Then all of the political consequences that both he and Speaker Pelosi are now experiencing make sense. It explains the most inexplicable thing to me: why did the President over-rule his Chief of Staff on the question of siding with MoveOn.org early on in the health care debate over the public option? Because President Obama has always wanted a single payer system.
The media refuses to report this, but opposition to the public option is one of the hardest points of opposition within the Blue Dog revolt. Like making abortion a benefit paid for by taxpayer dollars, the public option is a binary thing — you are either at yes or no (zero or one) on the question.
And as Sean Trende points out in his RealClearPolitics op-ed, Why Obama Isn’t Governing From The Center, everything becomes clearer once you understand President Obama’s support for a single payer — Canadian style — health care system.
Trende then goes on to explain the seemingly inexplicable — why President Obama keeps doubling down on a politically losing hand that is the Pelosi-Waxman-Kennedy health care plan:
we look to 2010. The average midterm loss for a President’s party since World War II has been 10.5% of its seats. But the economy isn’t looking too hale right now; the average loss for a President’s party when real disposable income rises by less than 2% is 13%. The average loss for a President’s party when the President’s approval is at or below 50% is 16%. And if you look at real disposable income increases of less than 2% and a Presidential approval of less than 50% — at the very least a possible scenario for 2010 – you end up with a murderer’s row of midterm elections: 1946, 1974, 1982, 1994, 2006.
The four scenarios described above would translate to losses of 27, 33, 41, and 49 seats, respectively for the Democrats. The latter two would hand control of the House to Republicans, while the former would deprive the Democrats of working control of the House. And remember, these are just averages. Some results in each category are lower, but some are higher.
In other words, Obama realizes that the odds are not likely going to improve for the implementation of an aggressively liberal agenda. Right now, he is in the midst of a liberal moment, where he has governing majorities in each House. He wants to get a health care bill through that is the closest to his philosophy, and he knows that future Congresses are unlikely to have similarly hearty Democratic majorities.
Trende also cites David Brooks recent column in the NYTs “Liberal Suicide March,” and President Obama’s uber-leftist voting record (most liberal Senator in 2007) by the National Journal when Obama was a U.S. Senator as general background music for his observations.
Trende allows for this other interpretation of President Obama’s behavior:
The other possibility – and like I said, these aren’t mutually exclusive — is that Obama is just a bad executive. This doesn’t mean he’s a bad President. Being a good President in part involves giving good speeches and serving as the head of state. Obama excels at this aspect of the job.
It seems clear that Trende has pierced some of the mystery of the real reason for President Obama’s nose dive in both the polls and the nose dive his health care bill has taken.
Neil Stevens
Moe Lane
Steve Maley
Dan McLaughlin
Daniel Horowitz
Paying for a mistake
jeepnpat1 (Diary) Friday, July 24th at 10:25AM EST (link)Obama is putting our money where his mouth is. He flat-out stated that he doesn’t want his daughters to be punished for a mistake. So that means, he would rather every other taxpayer to pay for their ‘mistake’.
“I’ve got two daughters, 9 years old and 6 years old. I’m going to teach them first of all about values and morals but if they make a mistake, I don’t want them punished with a baby. I don’t want them punished with an STD at the age of 16, you know.”
-Barack Obama, March 29, 2008
Obama Doesn't Have a "Liberal" Working Majority
IJB Friday, July 24th at 11:24AM EST (link)He has a *Democrat* majority.
But it’s not a true “liberal” working majority. The Dems would have to have far more seats in both chambers to have a true “liberal” majority.
That’s Obama’s problem – he’s never recognized the difference between the two, and he keeps acting like they’re the same thing. They’re *not*.
Party politics
DerKrieger (Diary) Friday, July 24th at 7:13PM EST (link)I have respect for people who buck their party when the party is in favor of something stupid. I have none for those that toe the line of the party leadership and won’t stand up for their constituents. Every Democrat that won in a GOP district in 2006/08 who supports Obama needs to be sent home for life by the voters.
“In questions of power, let no more be heard of confidence in man, but bind him down from mischief by the chains of the Constitution.” – Thomas Jefferson
“I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence, the money of their constituents.” – James Madison
Whenever the legislators endeavor to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience.” — John Locke, 1690
Obama's aggressive
DerKrieger (Diary) Friday, July 24th at 7:12PM EST (link)push for socialized medicine in the teeth of strong, bipartisan (at least among the electorate) opposition ought to get him impeached. Other than voting these statists out ex post facto, there is no punishment for them should they succeed! I am having a hard time believing so many Congressional Democrats have so much invested in Obama and the party that they’re willing to walk the plank. Have so many Dems become Leftists? If so where are the cries from the MSM about moderation?
“In questions of power, let no more be heard of confidence in man, but bind him down from mischief by the chains of the Constitution.” – Thomas Jefferson
“I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence, the money of their constituents.” – James Madison
Whenever the legislators endeavor to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience.” — John Locke, 1690
Once you accept
10ksnooker (Diary) Friday, July 24th at 8:46PM EST (link)It’s all about government takeover of healthcare, so they can then run every aspect of your life as a health issue, then it all makes sense.
That and an understanding of what Black Nationalism is all about.
"Obama excels" ...
skorrent1 (Diary) Saturday, July 25th at 12:04AM EST (link)As head of state? By bowing to King Faud? Antagonizing the Brits? Siding w/ Fidel and Hugo re Honduras? Striking out w/ China and India re C & T? Show me one foreign policy success! (OK, maybe he was a hit in Ghana when he told those Blacks how to behave.)
As to the speeches, I guess I’m in the minority in thinking that TOTUS writes some pretty good stuff, but the robot reading it is getting boring! And his off-script gaffs are getting as bad as Biden. Stupid police, indeed! Greedy tonsil-pulling doctors, indeed!
If the Dems are relying on his foreign policy and oratorical skills to keep his popularity up, they may be in for a surprise.
It's not about him
Robert A. Hahn (Diary) Saturday, July 25th at 10:00PM EST (link)However liberal Obama is, and however badly he wants to “get this done” before his moment slips away, it really isn’t all about him.
The news may be all about the Pelosis and Schumers, but there are 435 Members to whom 2010 is more important than Obama’s legacy, or any drive he may have to advance World Socialism. Those Members know what happened in 1994. There were three things worth noting: a BTU tax, Health Care Reform, and the worst shellacking Democrats had taken in 40 years.
They’ve seen this movie, they know how it ends, and they probably see value in changing the plot.
I don’t think Obama is going to get this. My read is that the moment has already passed. He allowed the same thing to happen that Hillary allowed to happen: he didn’t ram it through fast enough to prevent the public from getting wind of it before the vote.
The public only wants Health Care Reform in the abstract. They love the idea of it. But if you actually build it and offer to ship it to them and send them the bill, they will turn on you lickety-split and vote you out.
Obama wasted the “do it in the dead of night so quickly they can’t even read it” trick on a pile of pork. That trick was the only way he was ever going to get a single-payer health care system, and he spent it on canned ham and nature trails. What a n00b.
Drink Good Coffee. You can sleep when you’re dead.