One of the central points in Senator Gregg’s op-ed about our debt is his warning about the Chinese government not buying our debt:
If the Chinese start to reduce their purchases of our government securities because of our need to borrow increasing amounts of money to finance all the spending that the president has proposed, we will have to start offering higher interest payments to potential lenders to make our securities more attractive.
As that interest on U.S. Treasuries goes up, so does the financial burden on taxpayers in the next generation. This would hit the next generation with a double whammy — unnecessary debt we’re already incurring, plus higher interest rates on our borrowing.
Actually, President Obama not only agrees with you Senator Gregg, but was more clear about what was going to happen than your statement above. Last week the President said there “is no doubt that at some point” the countries buying our debt will stop. Not may stop, but will stop.
Here is the President’s entire quote:
“I am concerned about the long-term issue of our structural deficit and our long-term debt because if we don’t get a handle on that then there’s no doubt that at some point whether it’s the Chinese, the Koreans, the Japanese, whoever else has been snatching up Treasuries are going to decide that this is too much of a risk,” he told Bloomberg.
In fact, the Chinese also agree with Senator Gregg and President Obama, and are predicting that the dollar is “poised for a fall” and are buying precious metals for the new role of the yuan (the Chinese currency) after dollar’s collapse.
Here are some other relevant facts:
1) four months ago, in March, the Chinese announced they were going to diversify (sell) their U.S. dollars they were holding or as you say “reduce their purchases;”
2) not only did China recently restate this policy, but they have already begun to not only “reduce their purchases,” but the total value of their dollar holdings has dropped:
China, the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities, trimmed its holdings to $763.5 billion in April, from $767.9 billion in March. Japan, the second largest holder of Treasury securities, reduced its holdings to $685.9 billion, from $686.7 billion a month earlier.
and,
3) you will be interested to know that CNBC, Reuters and many others quoted a Chinese Communist Party economist who this week said is not in China’s financial interest to buy U.S. Treasury bills that finance our debt:
“Should we buy gold or U.S. Treasuries?” Li asked. “The U.S. is printing dollars on a massive scale, and in view of that trend, according to the laws of economics, there is no doubt that the dollar will fall. So gold should be a better choice.”
The same Chinese Communist Party economist went on to advise:
Speaking at a foreign exchange and gold forum, Li also said that buying land in the United States was a better option for China than buying U.S.Treasury securities.
Is it any wonder that China and Russia and others are not only calling for a new global currency, but actively meeting to plan for a new currency once the dollar tanks.
The way the U.S. can start attracting investors to buy our dollar is to increase our interest rates, making our Treasury bills a better return on the investor’s money. Since there is risk buying our T-bills, we must acknowledge and compensate for that risk by giving a higher interest rate.
But since the Federal Reserve is not increasing the interest rate to attract buyers for our Treasury bills, (both the number one and number two holders of our debt — China and Japan, in that order — have reduced their U.S. Treasury holdings) we must be printing our own money to buy our own Treasury bills. This is how we are now financing our own debt, we are “massively” printing money, or as the economists like to say “monetizing our debt.”
This, obviously, cannot last, so interest rates will spike, or if we keep printing money, the dollar will collapse and we will see rampant inflation. And the unemployment rate will go up, and Congress will cry stimulus, and we will print more money to fund our spending habit, causing more inflation or higher interest rates, or both.
Because the White House and Congress refuse not only to reduce our deficit or debt, but the ruling party continues to insist on trillions of dollars in new taxes and spending on Cap and Trade and health care reform.
The U.S. has a Hobson’s choice of our making: inflation or high interest rates.
This economic effect will be the Agent Orange of our ‘green shoots” economy, and will ultimately destroy the Obama Presidency, since it is clear no one in the international bond market believes the U.S. will reduce its debt or deficit.
Neil Stevens
Steve Maley
Words are cheap, Mr. President
ss396 Sunday, June 28th at 12:29PM EST (link)Do you plan to reign in your ambitions?
As I recall, the President was “deeply concerned” about the Iranian protesters, too. His concern does not translate into action, so who cares what he says?
If you pay someone to sit on his butt, you can’t be surprised when he does.
Wait till you get a load of this CBO Debt graph:
Dan Perrin (Diary) Sunday, June 28th at 3:13PM EST (link)http://www.cbo.gov/
Subtle, they put it on the front page of their site.
Barack is a rare politician, indeed, to be able
6eorge Jetson (Diary) Sunday, June 28th at 1:41PM EST (link)to flaunt such obvious, blatant hypocricy.
Too bad he’s using his charm to burden our children to such an incredible, unnecessary degree.
.
Napalm
Thomas_Hauber Sunday, June 28th at 1:41PM EST (link)The Chinese not buying our debt is not Agent Orange it is Napalm.
Right now I am reading When Money Dies: The Nightmare of the Weimar Collaps, by Adam Fergusson. (available at mises.org) And although history may not repeat itself, it does seem to have interesting parallels. The Weimar republic started printing massive amounts of money to fund their economy in part because they owed so much money to foreign creditors, basically the allies for WW1. They also ran a huge deficits, that were noted by the British to be unsustainable. Their leader Dr. Wirth was clueless about the economy and their political representatives did nothing. This all sound eerily familiar.
If our creditors start balking about buying more of our debt, because of our massive budget shortfalls, we will be in the same boat as other failed currencies. This country simply cannot afford Cap and Trade, Universal Health Care, tax increases and Stimulus II (which I have started to hear about). How close are we to the breaking point, I don’t know. But I would hazard a guess that Bernanke and the feds do.
Well, we are in violent agreement then.
Dan Perrin (Diary) Sunday, June 28th at 3:15PM EST (link)Napalm on “green shoots” was the only metaphor I could come up with, but would welcome another suggestion.
Obama acts like he just got beamed down from a Starship
Jack_Savage (Diary) Sunday, June 28th at 3:41PM EST (link)He is pretending that the deficit is some Act of God, he and the Democrats had nothing to do with it, and they are the only ones who can fix it.
I can't afford gold, can I buy chocolate instead??? (nt)
Karina (Diary) Sunday, June 28th at 4:03PM EST (link)Better get it soon
Deskpilot (Diary) Sunday, June 28th at 4:39PM EST (link)Chocolatiers require large amounts of energy to process the cocoa bean into chocolate. Then the distribution network of truck and trains and stores all have energy requirements.
“Under my CAP and TRADE plan, {ALL} prices wil neccessarily skyrocket.”
If you can read this, thank a teacher. If you can still read it in English, You’re Welcome
Deskpilot, AM(H)1 (AW), USN (Ret)
Join the RedState Strike Force
And cream from gassy cows
Karina (Diary) Sunday, June 28th at 5:47PM EST (link)Dangit, I forgot.