Even if Gingrich wins Florida, I see him getting shutout in February, the question is how will this AND a month of really no debates and “news” help him moving towards Super Tuesday.

- Most states are Caucus states – We know he is getting a late start in this thing in terms of trying to run a 50-state campaign: He probably has little to no ground game in these states, which is crucial for Caucus states.

- Michigan will be a Romney state, as it was in 2008 and his dad was Governor.

- Arizona, while Gingrich’s stance on immigration might help him in the general election, probably isnt going to help him with AZ primary voters.

I could see Romney running the table in February.

Sounds like a description of Gingrich’s character.

I have a feeling the Establishment will ultimately get its way and Romney will be a weaker candidate entering the general contest. The 2010 taxes come out on Tuesday. There might be something in there, or perhaps not. The problem is he only released one year of returns. How much will you bet the pressure for him to go back further than 2010 will increase as the campaign moves forward?

So, he’ll have this constant drip of less-than-flattering news surrounding his campaign for months. Romney is already being framed as “One Percenter” by his opponents and the MSM. Once the debate frames you, the trend seldom reverses itself.

Iowa shows what the establishment will do to get Romney on the ticket.
This is the results of the Iowa caucus as last reported
The vote delegate count
Santorum, 29,839 24.56% 6 21.43%
Romney, 29,805 24.53% 6 21.43%
Paul, 26,036 21.43% 6 21.43%
Gingrich, 16,163 13.30% 4 14.29%
Perry, 12,557 10.33%
Now there are 28 delegates in total. You can see here that only 22 are accounted for leaving 6. It is of note that there is also 8 precincts who’s votes are lost, forever we are told. How would the outcome be different if they were known and not lost. Might Newt have won or at least tied, we will never know. It would be a good bet that had the results been known, Romney would have been shown to be a lot weaker candidate than advertised. Also in no way could he have been declared the winner, even for the period of time that he was. This alone, shows what we are up against today and it has been exposed from the first contest. The results for Iowa don’t exist, at best they can be called incomplete.

…because this is a healthy process.

Supporting The Newt [c/o Perry] allows me to tick-off the Politico-lib articles highlighted today, as “covered” by The Newt’s performance on all three interview shows yesterday [and not rebutted during the appearances of the other three on the Huckster's show, last night].

*

POLITICO Daily Digest, January 23, 2012 6:58 am
———————————————-
Go to POLITICO.com: http://www.politico.com/
Newt: The master of disguise
By: Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen
Gingrich has used his debate skills – and this instinct to hit the raw nerves of conservatives – to camouflage considerable weaknesses as a candidate. The three wives, cheating on and leaving the first two while they were ill; inconsistency on the most consequential conservative causes of the past decade; episodic bouts of self-importance severe even by politicians’ standards, and countless tales of erratic leadership in crisis.
more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/71803.html
———————————————-

Mitt faces a perfect mess
By: Jonathan Martin and John F. Harris
Rarely has there been a figure in American politics whose personality and achievements—taken as individual parts—so powerfully conveyed both uncommon success and a kind of reassuring conventionality.
more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/71806.html
———————————————-
Obama’s big campaign speech: SOTU
By: Carrie Budoff Brown and Glenn Thrush
The Republican candidates are about to get a sharp lesson in the power of the presidency.
more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/71798.html
———————————————-
Mitt searches for debate ‘moment’
By: Maggie Haberman
Conventional wisdom holds that Mitt Romney is a practiced and highly polished debate performer. The reality? He’s sometimes good but almost never great. He’s no Newt Gingrich. His supporters are generally happy that’s the case, but it’s a problem this week because Romney has two big chances this week to flip the script in a GOP race in which the momentum has slipped away from him — a pair of Florida debates, just the sort of setting where a game-changing ‘moment’ can be made.
more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/71805.html
———————————————-
Mitt’s misery, in a word: Bain
By: Alexander Burns and Maggie Haberman
The issue wraps up an array of criticisms of Romney in a neat, single-syllable package.
more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/71795.html

*

Each of these pieces ID potential weaknesses of The Newt, but rejoinders are easily conjured. Thus, “message” and “momentum” favor The Newt, notwithstanding potential “ad hominem” and “ad money” that impend from Mitt.

I don’t know what that would look like, could someone explain it to me please? Does it mean that the people at the convention could just choose someone else, despite any vote counts from the primaries?

Also, how could a late entrant emerge? Would they be able to get on all the ballots? Would they be able to actually do it under various state rules (like Perry and Gingrich didn’t make Virginia?)

How could that happen, does anyone kow?

the problem is the Yes Gingrich folks who can’t seem to remember his years of abuse of conservatives, our values, and our principles. And when his ego leads him off our path, he denigrates and disparages conservatives who do not follow him down the paths to perdition.

Has he ever met a “green” boondoggle he didn’t fall for? Remember he was one of the biggest boosters of cap-’n'- tax and the individual health care mandate as “market-based solutions” for years.

Read the full report of the House Ethics Committee Counsel, James T. Cole before you jump on the Newtwagon. Or just wait until fall – the Democrats will read it to you, line by line.

Nice work ctredstater You have coined a word that aptly describes the mess we are in. When Newt Gingrich is your leader, your cause is in trouble.

in spite of the fact that Romney’s PAC’s donated the max to her own election, close to $40,000, it is reported. Haley’s endorsement was supposed to put a lock on the tea party vote going to Romney. He suffered a stunning 12 point loss.

While not illegal, the massive amounts of money funneled into campaigns as well as state and county GOP party coffers by the Romney PAC’s leaves a bad taste for those that believe too much money is involved in elections. It’s also rather disingenuous for Romney to stand on debate stages now and claim he doesn’t like PAC’s and wishes they’d go away. It also wasn’t illegal for Romney’s staff in the MA statehouse to scrub emails when he left office or the fact that computers were removed and replaced at taxpayer expense. It’s not illegal that he won’t release the names of his campaign finance bundlers. None of it is illegal but combined, it creates a cloud of something less than total honesty and transparency.

http://salon.com/2012/01/07/35_romney_endorsers_received_contributions_first/

www.opensecrets.org
www.followthemoney.org

Got it?

. . are doing a good job. We are doing OUR job. We are doing the job of picking the best candidate who reflects our values and our priorities. I’m proud to be part of this process.

I know it’s just politics, but there has been so much negativity emanating from that man since this whole process started, he’s starting to remind me of Demoncrats with their divide and conquer tactics. The more I think about it, the more like them he seems. He’s so far from Reagan, doesn’t even want to be like him, and has very little leadership or statesman skills. I don’t really know what kind of President he would be, but it doesn’t look very promising when he can’t even unite his supposed base.

Reuters:

Restore Our Future has spent $5 million in Florida for Romney since mid-December. That was when the political action committee launched get-out-the-vote efforts aimed at hundreds of thousands who have sought to vote by mail or at early-voting centers well before primary on January 31.

The PAC’s outlay is more than 20 times the amount spent in Florida so far by any other group supporting a Republican candidate, according to Federal Election Commission filings analyzed by Reuters.

It shows the former Massachusetts governor’s organizational advantages in Florida as well as the dramatic impact of “Super PACs” that can swamp a state’s airwaves with ads aimed at boosting or tearing down a candidate.

Super PACs, the legacy of a 2010 U.S. Supreme Court ruling, can receive unlimited donations. Donations directly to candidates are capped at $2,500 per individual.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/22/us-usa-campaign-spending-idUSTRE80L0U620120122

But the conservatives agreed to him because he wasn’t a power player. And Hastert only came along after Livingston fell on his sword AFTER Newt had gone.

There just weren’t enough Republicans in the caucus who would support Newt, OR enough who would oppose Livingston too, to pull off a true coup.

DeLay was going to be in the leadership no matter who was Speaker, he was a conservative but had ingratiated himself to K Street lobbyists and was a go-to guy on channeling campaign money to Republicans. You didn’t have to like what he did but if you planned on winning you still went to see him.

But yes, the establishment guys like these were perfectly willing to stick with Newt despite the Ethics charges and his personal scandals, it was the conservatives who had had enough of his crap.

Most of what Gingrich takes credit for happened despite his efforts, not because of them. He was critical in welfare reform and passing it over and over, but the impetus for economic ideas wasn’t from him. After he marshalled through votes on the Contract items, he lost focus and became erratic as a leader.

…that it doesn’t square with what I was told during lunch on Saturday by an incumbent Congressman during ’94-’98.

Jon David Fox [PA-13, R] had nothing but great things to say about his leadership. In the caucuses, he could take a complex bill and digest it effectively…conveying a sense of understanding its multi-level import.

Jon had no negative recollection regarding bombast. Indeed, when he would cook me an omelet on Sunday-a.m. while watching the interview-shows, I remember he would constantly express the view that incumbents liked his leadership.

Scarborough [of PMSNBC] is fronting for the D’s; to claim that The Newt isn’t a true “conservative” by [in The Newt's predictive terminology] “cherry-picking” would challenge the credibility of the speaker [with a lower-case "s"].

THEREFORE, let’s all take a deep breath and ponder [invoking the Talmudic definition of "wisdom"..."the ability to predict the effects of your actions"] the most profound forces-at-play.

Here, let’s quote an e-mail received from an ardent pro-Perry…highly intelligent…thinker:

*

“You will be happy to know that there is a PPP showing Gingrich is leading in Florida. My only joy is in seeing the panic that is obvious inside the establishment. Whatever the outcome in this year’s primary should be, I do think finally we are gaining strength as a conservative movement. My only concern is the conservatives themselves and the fact that I have encountered such extreme vitriol. Really, it was shocking. I campaigned hard for Perry and on issues such as illegal immigration, the hatred was astounding. The rabid right doesn’t seem not interested in thoughtful reflection or looking at the larger picture of serving the best interests of our country. Ronald Reagan was gifted in his ability to draw the factions together. But, it does seem that those on the fringe have grown in number. I consider myself to be really conservative and a traditionalist but I have a difficult time relating to some of those folks. Of course, I am only offering my opinion after experiencing this grueling primary. I might add, I have met some wonderful people, as well, and it was heartening to encounter some truly dedicated Americans.”

*

What is her message? And what is the theme that threads through most of the more heartfelt postings provided supra? And what is the ideal posture to adopt during the rest of January?

Mitt [and Chris Christie...and the entire campaign] went NEGATIVE, and invoked only previously-known data in the process. There is a “lifetime” to the couch-event, the can’t-get-along-claim, the too-smart-for-his-own-britches-pseudo-lament….

The “establishment” is indeed in panic-mode; as Guzzardi and I concluded a few hours ago, it’s not that The Newt is anti-establishment [for he's functioned as a lobbyist]; rather, he has conveyed the impression [pugnaciously publicly and probably privately] that he won’t be subject to anyone’s control.

Thus, he combines the ability to articulate conservatism and the gumption to do so with style. The base can enjoy the fruit of his labor, and he has created a foundation for BOTH following RR’s 11th-Commandment AND responding to pungent attacks.

AND, lest we forget, he has encompassed the perspectives/goals of those who have dropped-out, most notably Perry’s FEDERALISM. To whatever degree that action erases prior error [I'm STILL awaiting his total rejection of the Individual Mandate], this positions him well to dominate Florida…the national polls…and the Indie electorate.

Joe Scarborough’s analysis is most likely politically correct, disingenuous disinformation. As Samsara points out, the successors were worse. Tom Delay is in jail, isn’t he and Dennis Hastert, Earmarker Extraordinaire.

…and, increasingly, the chattering-class of “conservative pundits” is self-classifying into two groups: those inevitably revealing internal biases [such as apologists for Mitt's wooden evasions] and those who reflect “Main St.” [not Wall/K St.] sentiments [such as those who simply recognize The Newt's ability to think/reformulate briskly].

dr. bob and I saw him and Mike present in Iowa. Shallow showman with enough political information to pass as knowledgeable. a sell out to the Liberal Media. disgraceful is too mild.

yet, he represents a growing class that continues to use the Republican party as a vessel from which to pour their liberal progressive views. Prior to Obamacare being gaveled down as law, it was Joe that sat most every morning next to some of the most outrageoulsy liberal voices in the media, advising Obama on how to get it passed.

When the BP oil disaster occurred, it was good ol’ Joe, morning after morning, swinging a hammer to nail all the blame on BP, as if they planned for this to happen and were deliberate and happy about the mess it caused. Joe did his utmost best to scare tourists away, walking the beaches with pal Charlie Crist, both barefoot and glistening with tanning oil, seeming to have contests to see which could find the most oil balls. It was Joe that spoke time and again about how this disaster would help both the causes of the radical environmentalists, the anti-oil drill gang and most importantly, Pres. Obama.

A true conservative, a Republican that sincerely wants to do their part to defeat liberalism and promote freedom and independence would not even work at that network. Beware, though. Joe is often encouraged to run for office again—-as a conservative.

That would be a huge jump. I’d like to see the breakdown and what kind of poll it is.

except a trip to a the nuthouse

and when it is all said and done he will have enough delegates to influence the convention.

True conservatism in catching on in the GOP. There is less and less tolerance for the neoconservative world view and every day more people are waking up and understanding that the only true small government conservative in the race is Ron Paul.

Here are some actual differences:

Will Romney repeal ObamaCare…Probably not , since he wrote it!
Will Romney pick Conservative SC judges… No he is not a Conservative
Will Romney fight for asmaller Gov’t…He certainly did not do that in Mass.
Will Romney reduce EPA regulations…probably not since he stated he believes in Global Warming.

So far everything listed above Newt will actually fight ( as you can see in the media) to change….not so sure Santorum can take to the lIberals like Newt can…..

…by invoking Iran.

During a ‘phone conference-call this past December, I asked him two questions.

Regarding the 1000:1 prisoner-swap [for Galid Shalit], he said [1]–he wouldn’t second-guess Bibi, and [2]–he would ensure that the CIA could “handle” the 35 released-terrorists who had killed Americans.

Wanna connect the dots?

Regarding the possibility of quarantine/blockade [to stop refined-oil imports and weapons exports], he reflexly claimed it would be c/w his intent to achieve regime-change.

Wanna anticipate what Mitt would have said, in response to either query?

The Newt would be forthright, candid; this is what the GOP electorate yearns to experience. He would nominate Scalia/Roberts/Thomas/Alito, not Myers/Souter/O’Connor/Kennedy.

OK for starters?

No one on RedState doesn’t know who and what Newt Gingrich is. But in the real world which is neither pure nor pristine, Newt Gingrich has emerged as the most unlikely avatar of “anti-Establishment”.

Note: when your leader is Newt Gingrich, your cause is in trouble.
It is what it is.

Otherwise concur.

Amazingly, these usual-suspects haven’t yet weighed-in regarding the ad-hominem attack-plan of Mitt on The Newt; this is problematic and must be remembered when they seek support for future critique.

…when provided succinct, reality-based articulations of what I’ve sensed:

Romney has been unmasked
ctredstater Sunday, January 22nd at 7:45PM EST (link)
It made me nuts to think he was going to “pull a McCain” and sort of let Santorum be his Huckabee, clearing out Newt and Perry, the two real threats to him.

I am so glad it didn’t happen. I am glad the base didn’t let it happen. He was at his absolutely worst this week – looking petulant, elitist ($374,000 is not a lot of money), entitled (telling the electorate what it thinks), and stiff.

Doesn’t mean the glass jaw has been shattered and that he is toast. He has been knocked down. Let’s see him get up, dust himself off, and become strengthened, not fatally weakened, by this.

Similarly, let’s see Newt sharpen his messages, show some maturity, and really show what he has, what he could do. he made a great point on Face the Nation today – he has quite a body of work. Sure – people can cherry pick this and that. and I was a solid Perry man. but Newt is carrying the conservative banner.

Santorum – campaigning for cabinet post, at best. Should consider himself fortunate that he “got hot when he did” in Iowa. Live for a couple years in Iowa and you increase the chances that may happen.

Rockefeller Republicanism between Newtism – a blend of conservatism and a lot of other exotic stuff.

I am for Newt. But let’s see a good, vigorous back and forth – and a couple of candidates who keep getting better – not worse.

[again]

All those Vegas moguls who’ve been paying Newt’s PAC and running those false Bain attacks that some conservatives have bought are Harry Reid cronies. As the chief of staff of a Tea Party freshman said today “the Tea Party is allowing Harry Reid to pick up the GOP nominee”.

which is entirely appropriate given the LSM’s propensity to make stuff up (think Dan Rather or Trigg Palin). And if you think any GOP candidate is off limits to this kind of stuff, you’re naive at best.

GINGRICH: Not that I know of. I mean, again, given the nature of the modern world whatever is there I’m sure will come out in the end. But to the best of my knowledge people know an immense amount about me. Probably more than any candidate who is running. I think people have dealt with and thought through whether or not they could support me.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/12/any-other-skeletons-in-gingrichs-closet-not-that-i-know-of/

Our problem isn’t that Romney will work with conservatives. He very well may do so. Our problem is that he will work with RINO’s, moderates, and liberals.