But primaries cost money. if you can avoid one, you save money.

The conservative should’ve been given a fair chance at representing himself in a primary.

Next time, hold a primary!

This won’t be the last we hear of Hoffman.

Newt said had he known what a solid Leftist Ms. Scuzzy was, he would’ve said something. All he had to go on was nonsense like how she’d signed some fiscal responsibility declaration, even though she has voted consistently to raise taxes and spend, spend, spend. As if signing onto that thing somehow cleansed her soul.

NY-23

Being familiar with NY politics, I generally keep 2 things in mind. The first is, many left leaning voters in any of New Yorks voting districts, will register in the party that will give them a vote in either a primary or caucus, which ever party seems to dominate in that district. Therefore, you may have liberal Republicans, such as Scozzafava, on a ticket in what may be considered a Republican district. In reality, it could very well be a Deomcratic district in voting, but a Republican one in registration. Secondly, when an avowed Conservative, such as Hoffman, runs in these districts, the voters tend to run from them, associating Conservatism with Barry Goldwater instead of Ronald Reagan. Knowing this fact, this makes Hoffmans run all that more significant because for any Conservative to do that well in any NY district, even in a loss, says that even moderate Republicans and Democrats alike are fed up with not only the path the country is on, but the lack of representation they are feeling in their districts. One other point on NY politics is, many go to the polls to vote a straight party line without researching any of the candidates before hand.

NJ-GOV

Agreeing totally with your analysis, I would only add that NJ citizens were completely fed up with the status quo and a third party Independent candidate who leaned more left than right wasn’t the answer. These people truly were seeking change. His task is VERY daunting and it will be interesting to see how Christie addresses the problems facing that state.

Virginia

Being one of those Virginia voters who voted for McDonnell, I think I can trace his victory to 2 underlying facts. The first is voter turnout. Virginia, like many other staes, has been noted for a poor voter turnout on the Conservative side. Be it apathy, or a lack of confidence, they just didn’t believe their vote would matter. The present Administration changed all that. Virginian Conservatives have fully embraced the Tea Party movements and for the first time in a long time, came out to vote. In this state, as in NY, when voter turnout exceeds 50%, Republican and Conservative candidates see a marked increase in their support. I think after this year, you will not see those numbers decline. The second underlying fact is Tim Kaines apparent sellout to a corrupt Washington administration, something Virginians, even moderate liberal Virginians cannot countenance. You see, in Virginia, it is Virginia first, especially when you are talking of a Governor.

On the rest of these contests, you seem to be reasonably accurate. When reviewing these districts, it is important to take into account the makeup of that district.

I think this is a very good post and I commend you on your research and your informative analysis.

1. Being fiscally responsable
2. strong on national defense
3. promote a sense of basic morality, ie no moral revelvancy

I can live with a pro-choice, pro-gay marriage candidate, or someone who supports limited gun control in a place where voters want it. Take Mark Kirk for example, yeah he screwed up on Cap and trade but he was strong on stimulus and has been very strong on Health Care reform. He has no viable Conservative opponet in the Primary who could win the General election, so its him or the mob banker and Barry’s BFF in Illinois politics Alexi Ginnoulious who will be an automatic vote for Cap& trade, Health Care, or any other item on Barry’s agenda. Kirk is agnaist 2 of those 3 and a cap& trade atleast Conservatives can put pressure on him not to vote for it again as a Senator that wont happen if Giannoulius in being Barry’s rubber stamp. It all gets back to Reagan’s 80% rule, Kirk fits it but someone like Dede doesnt.

Ovide lost the Governor’s race to Jeanne Shaheen by 17 points in 1996 and that was when NH was still a solid Red State. Some may even argue that candidates like him drove the state to the left. His combative style rubbed people the wrong way and opend the door for the likable Shaheen, who now sits in the U.S. Senate.

On paper, Ovide seems like a solid conservative and a good guy. But he’s a washed up has been. He disappeared for 12 years and only re-emerged in this favorable climate. People may whine that Ayotte is not a vociferous conservative ideologue, but she is solid, competent and her favorabilities are sky high. The people of NH like her. Her calm demeanor and temperment work well up there.

One represents the future, the other a failed past. I know many outsiders will jump on the Ovide bandwagon with really understanding the race, the candidates or the state.

Ayotte is easy money. She will beat Hodes. What was once a sure fire loss is now an easy hold.

Its not Snowe and Collins versus Jim Demint and Tom Coburn. Its Snowe or Collins versus a John Kerry and Ted Kennedy. That’s the type of Democrat that would be in the Senate if conservatives insisted in running someone too conservative for Maine. And at 62 seats, the Democratic legislative agenda would be far ahead.

For all the whining about Snowe, she single handedly stalled that legislation for nearly two months. And Collins has been opposed from the beggining. There is a time when country is more important than party. People blinded by paretisan issues sometimes miss the big picture. This health care bill may be irretractable. Defeating this right now is more important than a self-satisfying partisan catharsis.