The Empire State Shuffle


Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State Could Set Off A Game of Musical Chairs

So, assuming Hillary Clinton is, in fact, leaving the Senate to become Secretary of State (and assuming, see here, here and here, that she can Constitutionally take the job), that sets off the next round of political merry-go-round for New York: who will be appointed by Governor David Paterson to replace her?

Recall the setting. Hillary was re-elected in 2006, defeating Yonkers Mayor John Spencer; her term would be up in 2012, but Gov. Paterson gets to nominate a replacement, who would then face the voters in a special election in 2010. Gov. Paterson was elected Lieutenant Governor in 2006 and took over as Governor earlier this year after Eliot Spitzer resigned in disgrace. Meanwhile, Chuck Schumer is up for re-election in 2010, meaning that all three major statewide offices will be on the ballot in 2010, two of the three filled with incumbents who would be facing the voters for the first time, an unusually fluid situation.

First of all, one thing that seems certain is that this alignment will result in Chuck Schumer running unopposed for re-election. Paterson and the new Senator, as well as the newly elected State Senators who have given the Democrats a majority in the State Senate, will all be juicy but expensive targets to take on in a state that tilts heavily Democratic; the NY GOP can only spare so many resources, and even in a good year for Republicans (as 2010 is likely to be), and Schumer is nearly bulletproof unless he goes the way of Spitzer.

Second, I don’t think Bill Clinton will be interested in the job. Hillary, frankly, is apparently jumping at being Secretary of State to escape the dull anonymity of the Senate (bear in mind that Democratic Senators lacking seniority and committee chairmanships will now be expected to fall quietly in line with the Obama agenda no less than his Cabinet members) for the world stage and never have to campaign in Rochester and Buffalo again. I don’t see Bill wanting to become a freshman legislator.

Third, while David Paterson is a protege of Charlie Rangel, Rangel’s powerful position as Ways and Means Chairman means he won’t be much interested in a “promotion” to the Senate. Likewise, Louise Slaughter would have been the logical choice among upstate Congresspersons, but Slaughter is 79 and chair of the House Rules Committee; like Rangel, she’s too powerful and too old to leave her House slot and start over.

So who does that leave? There would appear to be five logical contenders.

(1) Andrew Cuomo is the logical favorite, for reasons of naked self-interest (Paterson fears, justifiably, that the State Attorney General and former HUD Secretary may challenge him for the nomination for his dad’s old job). Cuomo has no particular regional base in the state – his father was from Queens, but Andrew has spent years in Albany and Washington – but has statewide name recognition and has won statewide election. Brian Faughnan suggests that the camera-hungry Schumer may be opposed to Paterson picking the high-profile Cuomo. Of course, Cuomo’s tenure at HUD will sooner or later lead to tough questions about his role at the creation of the housing crisis. A Cuomo appointment would also set off a second round of musical chairs, as the AG job is a powerful one with many open investigations.

(2) Kirsten Gillibrand – I agree with ironman at Next Right that Gillibrand is a strong contender. Paterson is a black urban liberal from Harlem (if that’s not redundant); to win statewide, he needs to draw support from upstate and reach out to white and/or Latino voters. Tabbing Gillibrand has the hallmarks of the classic ticket-balancer: she’s relatively young (42), telegenic, Catholic, a mother of two young children and represents a traditionally Republican district she won in 2006 from the excessively hard-partying John Sweeney. Gillibrand might want to get out of Dodge – her district is sooner or later going to give her a tough re-election battle (in 2008, Gillibrand and her self-funding opponent combined to raise more money than the combatants in any other Congressional district in the country), and as Clyde Haberman notes, New York is likely to lose Congressional seats by 2012, so Democrats in marginal upstate districts will be scrambling to hold on.

The downside? Egos (of which New York politics has a perennial surplus) would be bruised if Gillibrand leapfrogs over more veteran lawmakers, including her old boss Cuomo (who she worked for at HUD). Democrats could well lose her House seat. And liberals may not be happy with picking a member of the Blue Dog caucus who has a 100% rating from the NRA, opposed Eliot Spitzer’s plan to give drivers’ licenses to illegal aliens, is a sponsor of the SAVE Act and of employer verification of legal status of workers and, supports making the Bush tax cuts permanent. (I’d expect her to drift leftward in the Senate, but if you’re a Democrat looking to install someone in a safe seat, you might want someone more reliable).

(3) Nydia Velazquez – Another NY City arch-liberal (she voted to investigate President Bush for impeachment proceedings over the Iraq War), Congresswoman Velazquez – the chair of the Hispanic Caucus and the first Puerto Rican woman elected to Congress – would cement Paterson’s ties with Latino voters. There’s speculation that she may prefer running the Hispanic Caucus, which makes little enough sense to me, and I’m not sure how well she would play in a statewide election. Wikipedia notes that “During her [1992] campaign for the House seat, her medical records, including documented clinical depression and an attempted suicide [in 1991], were leaked to the press. She quickly held a press conference and said that she had been undergoing counseling for years and was emotionally and psychologically healthy.” (This 1992 NYT report discusses the suicide attempt.)

(4) Byron Brown, the Mayor of Buffalo and a former State Senator. Brown is African-American, a mixed blessing for Paterson if he’s looking to expand his appeal across racial/ethnic lines, but he’s also the mayor of a key upstate city. Brown’s record as an executive means he’s less immediately identifiable along hot-button voting lines.

(5) Brian Higgins, a Congressman also from Buffalo, first elected in 2004. Higgins claims to be a New Democrat but is a much more conventional liberal than Gillibrand.

As for the GOP side, it remains to be seen. Mayor Bloomberg, now an Independent, has twisted many arms in the City Council to remove term limits so he can run for a third term in 2009; I assume that means he’s staying put in 2010. Rudy Giuliani probably couldn’t win a statewide election for the Senate at this point, but would be a very strong candidate for Governor if he was more motivated than during his disappointing presidential campaign; if the voters are unhappy with Albany, well, lots of politicians run on “change” but no living political figure has a record of bringing about as dramatic change as Giuliani did as Mayor of New York. Combative, maverick Long Island Congressman Peter King has talked about running for the Governorship as well, but King would probably be the GOP’s strongest candidate for the Senate seat, depending who Paterson picks.

It’s going to be an interesting two years here in the Empire State.


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If Patterson was smart...

Greg (Diary) Tuesday, November 25th at 2:14PM EST (link)

…he’d appoint Rudy Giuliani so that Rudy wouldn’t run against him in ’10.

“The whole modern world has divided itself into Conservatives and Progressives. The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of the Conservatives is to prevent the mistakes from being corrected.” — Chesterton

 

Constitutionality

reldim (Diary) Tuesday, November 25th at 2:56PM EST (link)

I tend to agree with Prof. Volokh over his correspondents, however learned they may be. I do not agree that “shall have been encreased” is totally unambiguous as regards the “fix.” To be increased there must be a measurement of some thing taken at some point against that thing taken at some other point.

As Prof. Volokh points out, if you went to Best Buy and asked them if the TV you’re looking at has increased in price over the past year, you would not be asking if the price at any point in the last year had been higher than it was in Nov. 2007, you’d be asking if the price you were looking at on the tag in front of you was higher than the price was in Nov. 2007.

That doesn’t mean the fix is inherently okay, but it does mean there is room to disagree about what the plain text actually is saying. This is yet another reason to disapprove the use of the passive voice.

There is also of course room to question exactly what the language was meant to do – does an inflation adjustment (resulting in a your “real salary” remaining constant) really affect an “encrease” in the sense this was meant. Did the Founders really deal with and understand the concept of inflation?

In short, I don’t think it’s as clear cut as some might make it out to be, and at the point that it’s not clear cut, it’s a question that each person probably needs to answer himself. I would interpret the provision in a way that would allow the salary decreasing fix to cure the problem.

What is funny in all this is that the issue was even raised by the Kossacks – a bunch of people who are wholly committed to the “living Constitution” that changes with current needs and understandings. If we assume that the Constitution is, in fact, a “living document” can’t we all agree that, whatever the Emoluments Clause meant to the Founders, the point of it all isn’t really called into question here (since Hillary never actually voted on a bill to increase this particular salary)?

If the proper reading of the clause is so strict as the postings would indicate, then I would favor an amendment to the clause to clarify and loosen it. The reality of the modern Executive branch means that we should not be disqualifying members of Congress from being appointed – the boat of “restraining the federal government in relation to the states” has, for the most part, left the station and even appointments of state governors to the Cabinet isn’t going to change that (a change in federal-state relations will require much more than merely changing the list of candidates for Cabinet positions). The executive departments deal with highly specialized areas of federal policy, and on both sides of the aisle, the members of congress who sit on the relevant committees are often going to be among the most knowledgeable and most qualified to handle those areas.

What boggles my mind is that the Clause would seemingly make ridiculous distinctions. Clinton, whose current term as a Senator spans the period during which this increase was effected, would be ineligible; but John Kerry, who has spent more than 20 years in the Senate, would be perfectly acceptable because he happened to get lucky and have his term expire this year (though he will embark on a new one in January) – even if he were directly responsible for the increase.

Besides, does the clause even prevent the “Legislative-Executive” conspiring that it is directed at? Couldn’t a bunch of Senators whose terms expire in 2010 (or any House member) “conspire” with Obama and the House to raise salaries of executive officials and then opt to “retire” from the Senate (or House) with a secret promise from the President to appoint them to one of those cushy jobs as soon as the “term for which they were elected” expires? In other words, is the Clause actually capable of preventing that which it was designed to address?

I say dispatch it to the dustbin to the extent it goes further than requiring a salary to be reset to some historical number (and even then it still seems to be deficient).

 

NY 20th and Gillibrand

DC71 (Diary) Tuesday, November 25th at 3:26PM EST (link)

I’m originally from that area, and the NY 20th isn’t as red as many people make it out to be. The real red areas of the district, especially Delaware county where I was born, while a conservative area, tend to like moderate politicians. When I was growing up, this was Sherwood Boelhert country, who was very centrist, if not RINO. Gillibrand actually fits the mold fairly well for that area to pull some Republican votes in. They also don’t have many people. The rest of her district, with the exception of Greene county, is getting bluer by the year and went pretty solidly for her and Obama. I think it would take a real solid challenger to take her out here. She is also much stronger than the other main upstate congressmen, and I think she would be more likely to keep her seat than Arcuri or Maffei. The only thing that would hurt her would be if they combined her district with McNulty’s Albany district, which is the only way I see her appointed to that seat.

I find it really hard to believe Patterson would give the seat to her, as much of a good choice as she may be. NY Senate is generally very safe (King may not play well in upstate….there is a difference between a Long Island Republican and and Upstate NY Republican), and giving it to a moderate Blue Dog doesn’t make much sense. I get the strange feeling RFK Jr. is going to get his father’s seat, but that’s really based on nothing.

I'd take RFK jr

Dan McLaughlin (Diary) Tuesday, November 25th at 3:37PM EST (link)

He’s a complete loon.

“No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong.” – Winston Churchill

 
 

With all Due Respect

VanishingNYRep (Diary) Tuesday, November 25th at 3:55PM EST (link)

Andrew Cuomo wants to be Gov where he can call the shots. He doesn’t want to be 1 of a 100 and a junior Senator. He’s young and he will wait. As far as the Kennedys go, I doubt it. Neither has done anything for the Dem Party and neither can run a successful primary. Forget Rep. Gilliband, the phony conservative, she’s too new. Gov. Paterson needs Hispanics and he needs a women, he’ll pick Nydia Velazquez. In the end, it doesn’t matter who the Gov. picks, Rudy Guiliani will beat any Dem. He can fundraise, he is a social liberal (a plus in NY) and he is okay with the unions. If he runs for Gov. or Senate, he will win.

 

Won't be Velazquez or Cuomo

DC71 (Diary) Tuesday, November 25th at 4:38PM EST (link)

Any Democratic Senator needs to make some inroads upstate. Clinton and Schumer both have, and that’s why they have won rather convincingly in the past. Velazquez won’t play well in places around Binghamton, Rochester or Syracuse. And Patterson isn’t that crazy.

I wouldn’t count on Cuomo either. Dan is correct,he doesn’t have near the political capital or gifts his father had. Now Mario Cuomo for that Senate seat…..that would be interesting.

There is a guy I forgot….that Nassau Executive that challenged Spitzer in the primary. Don;t be surprised if he is shows up again to challenge someone, possibly Patterson in the primary.

 

Incorrect fact in your post

Chance Haywood (Diary) Tuesday, November 25th at 5:45PM EST (link)

Though it has been publically reported that Bloomberg is an independent, unfortunatelly, he is still registered as a republican.

Feel free to look it up

https://voterlookup.elections.state.ny.us
(Last) Bloomberg – (First) Michael – (County) New York – (BOD) 02/14/1942 – (ZIP) 10075

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AS A NEW YORKER

hashemyazor Wednesday, November 26th at 11:28AM EST (link)

IM HAPPY TO SEE HER GO BECUSE SHE COULD OF HAD THIS SEAT AS LONG AS SHE WANTS BUT NOW WE HAVE OPTIONS.
DOES ANYBODY KNOW WHAT GEORGE PATAKI IS UP TO LATELEY? HAVENT HEARD FROM HIM IN A LONG TIME

PS. CAN ANYBODY HELP ME WITH POSTING FROM A PALM PHONE?

God No!

Chance Haywood (Diary) Thursday, November 27th at 11:37PM EST (link)

Why would you want Pataki? The guy was the worst sort of governor, who do you think is responsible to the massive budget issues we are about to experience? Not to mention he is essentially responsible for the slow death we are seeing of the Republican Party in New York. He did nothing to encourage the growth of the party. I’d rather experience water boarding than see guy as my US Senator.

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