Turn out!

We have to buck it up and Turn out!

AP just released a new poll, saying it is tied.

AP is a liberal group! As PA points out, if they say it’s tied, then McCain is ahead!

I finally got disgusted enough to do it. I almost did it when on 9/11 they didn’t put anything on the front page about the attack on America.

Then they placed an editorial from an editorialist from Atlanta that was so low and degrading to Sarah Palin, it was the last straw. I cancelled it after receiving the paper for decades.

Same old, same old thing about the media,
but I had just had it with them. I refuse to give them anymore of my money.

Markets are forward looking. Don’t think for a minute that markets haven’t been pricing in an Obama victory for several months. Nobody has been predicting McCain victory, have they?

This guy has destroyed trillions of dollars of wealth around the world and he hasn’t even been elected yet. Thanks, Barry.

Thanks for the link. I think you’re overstating pollings’ historical accuracy. I agree that the conspiracy theories about question wording and poll locations, etc. are wrong. But consider this:

In 2006, Republicans lost the popular vote for Congress by 7 points. Of the 75 polls taken in September, October, and November, exactly 8 had their margin at 7 or less. The final RCP average was 10 points. MOE alone doesn’t explain this, since the error margins of properly taken samples should be evenly distributed around the true value (which is the real value of polling averages). The polls just missed something in the electorate.

In 2004, President Bush did about a point better than most polls suggested he would do. The state polling was more of a mixed bag; RCP had Bush up only .6 in FL (and this was inflated by an outlying Q poll showing Bush up 8), up only 4.2 in MO, up only 8.5 in WV, and also up .9 in HI. There were some states that were spot-on and there were some more states where Kerry overperformed, but the point is that polling is sometimes waaaay off.

Hardly anyone foresaw the 2004 Republicans getting to 55 Senate seats. Witness, for example, Lisa Murkowski winning despite trailing in every poll taken that year save for one (a Republican poll taken toward the end). Castor was up .5 in the Florida generic ballot. Most polling had Bunning up by double digits. Two polls had Vitter reaching 47%, none had him at 50. Coburn was supposed to win by only 6. Republicans overperformed the generic congressional ballot, which showed a tie. Only seven polls all year showed them winning the generic vote.

In 2002, the final RCP averages showed the following:
Strickland up 1.
Cleland up 2.
Mondale up 2.
Thune up 2.

Other states turned in more accurate results, but still, these are some fairly big “oops.”

In 2000, Gore substantially outperformed the polls. Democrats outperformed the Senate ballot. (Though note now-Senator Nelson almost blew a double-digit lead).

I’m going off memory here, but in 1996, Republicans outperformed the Senate ballot. Dole did outperform the polls. (This time Senator Nelson did blow a double-digit lead).

So I wouldn’t be that surprised if the polls were wrong this time. This is especially true in a year like this one, when most people are just guessing what the electorate will look like.

Polls are not votes. They are evidence. The likely answer from the evidence we have remains that McCain is losing and likely to lose; I’m not going to cocoon myself or anyone else from that (there’s a reason why candidates who say “the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day” usually end Election Day with a concession speech). But there is more than enough uncertainty out there that I endorse wholeheartedly the view that the last thing Republicans and other McCain supporters should do is get discouraged and throw in the towel before every stop is pulled out to win this thing. You gotta be in it to win it.

Certainly true. If you look at the 538 simulations right now they give McCain about a 7% chance right now. Intrade gives him about a 14% chance last I checked. That means even in the worst case if the vote were held today (and it isn’t other than some early voting) McCain would still win more than 1 time in 20. Not great odds, no, but hardly impossible, and far far better than any lottery you might play.

It’s perfectly valid to say (as you have) the evidence points to my side being behind, we’ll have to work extra hard to win. What bothers me are the people who insist, no matter what, that te evidence must be wrong and McCain is really ahead. That’s disturbing because it reflects a mindset not of helthy skepticism but of closed minded immunity to reason.

So kudos to you for being both intellectually honest and also being willing to fight (metaphorically) for the outcome you think is best.

effect, internals show McCain:

Posted big gains among likely voters earning under $50,000 a year; he now trails Obama by just 4 percentage points compared with 26 earlier.

-Surged among rural voters; he has an 18-point advantage, up from 4.

-Doubled his advantage among whites who haven’t finished college and now leads by 20 points. McCain and Obama are running about even among white college graduates, no change from earlier.

-Made modest gains among whites of both genders, now leading by 22 points among white men and by 7 among white women.

-Improved slightly among whites who are married, now with a 24-point lead.

-Narrowed a gap among unmarried whites, though he still trails by 8 points.

In other words, the votes mcCain needs, blue-collar, rural, small business, are starting to turn to him. This is already paying dividends in Ohio and will be crucial to winning Pennsylvania.

There’s That ‘McCain Pulls Even’ Poll

Obi Wan, yesterday:

“Believe me, there is someone in the Obama campaign who is deathly afraid of the ‘McCain pulls even or goes ahead’ poll.”

Obi Wan had said that he felt the last debate had gone well for McCain, with “Joe the Plumber” finally illustrating the economic differences between the candidates, and illustrating that Obama would try to tax and spend his way out of a recession…

AP, not too long ago:

The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain’s “Joe the plumber” analogy struck a chord.

Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was better suited to lead the nation through its sudden economic crisis.

where I live as well (Chicago burbs). I recall many more in ’04. Proud to say my yard sign is still there. May have something to do with it being connected to an electric charge in my garage! (Just kidding!)

where I live as well (Chicago burbs). I recall many more in ’04. Proud to say my yard sign is still there. May have something to do with it being connected to an electric charge in my garage! (Just kidding!)

Driving around Las Vegas, I have yet to see an Obama yard sign and only a few McCain signs. As far as the down-ticket races, you can hardly walk down the street without being innundated with signs. Strange.

Thanks, Dan. Great articles.

My own “internal”, gut-inspired, Midwestern/Western poll says these large spread polls are whacko. Not that Obama can’t win, mind you, but that he won’t win by 8 or 10 or 14 or 27 points. America is still essentially a right-center country, and I can’t believe that “right-center” is compatible with “Obama landslide”.

I’m still very nervous about the October jobs report, which will be issued on the Friday before the election. It aint gonna be good, and it aint gonna help McCain. But meanwhile, Colorado has early voting, and I voted today. One vote at a time, folks. They all add up.

Keep working! Get out the vote!