So far as I can tell, nobody in the history of modern polling has won a presidential election from as big a hole as John McCain now stands in, at last check a national polling advantage in the neighborhood of 5 points for Obama. Now, if you are a betting man, surely you like your odds on Obama. But does that mean that the race is over? Perhaps, but not necessarily. While the circumstances are of course different, we have seen two past Republican campaigns, neither of them headed by the most dynamic of campaigners, provide examples of strong closing-month performances.
The most obvious recent example was 1996. The Gallup poll, which admittedly is one of the more volatile polls (Obama presently leads it by 8) on October 6/7, 1996 showed Bill Clinton with a commanding 22 point lead, 56-34 over Bob Dole with 5 points for Ross Perot (the first of two debates was on October 6). Four days later, after the first debate and the Vice Presidential debate, that lead was 57-34 (Clinton +23). In an October 14-15 poll, conducted on the eve of the second, October 16 debate, Dole pulled much closer (48-39, Clinton +9), but as late as October 20-21 the poll showed Clinton up 19, 52-33 with 8 for Perot. Dole then began his serious charge, pulling above 40% for the first time on November 4-5, to finish at Clinton +11 (52-41-7), and ended up at Clinton +8 on Election Day, 49-41. Dole thus ended up shaving as much as 15 points off Clinton’s lead in less than a month.
Then there’s 1976. Jimmy Carter had, of course, famously led by 34 in one midsummer poll…in a poll conducted September 24-27 (the first debate was September 23), Carter led 51-40 (+11), but in one conducted September 27-October 4, that lead dropped to +2, 47-45. Carter widened his lead to +6 on October 8-11 after the famous “Democrat wars” gaffe by Bob Dole in the October 6 VP debate, led +6 (47-41) on October 15-18 (the second debate, with Ford’s Poland gaffe, was October 15), was still at +5 on October 22-25 (the third debate was October 22), but an October 28-30 poll for the first time showed a Ford lead, 47-46. On Election Day, Carter won 50-48.
Polling today is more sophisticated, of course, and there are other distinguishing factors as well. On the one hand, the 1996 election had a third party candidate who surged up to double digits in late October, and Dole was running so far behind a still-strong GOP Congressional brand (Republicans held both Houses of Congress through that race) that a good deal of his late surge was just natural Republicans coming home. Some of the same was true of Ford’s surge. On the other hand, the 1996 race should have been much less volatile than this one – it matched a 3-decade Senate veteran with a sitting president in a time of peace and prosperity – yet the polls showed significant movement late in the game. 1976 was more similar to the present race, as it pitted a moderate Republican running in a time when the GOP brand was as destitute as it has been since the New Deal, matched against a relatively green and unknown opponent. And of course, this year’s race involves not only an unprecedentedly inexperienced and far-left presidential candidate and times of economic uncertainty and foreign war but also the triple complicating factors of no incumbent, Obama’s race, and McCain’s age coupled with Palin being not a whole lot more experienced than Obama. Those are all reasons why we might expect more, rather than less, real underlying volatility in voter preferences in addition to the possibility that the polls themselves are having trouble measuring the race. And at the end of the day, while it may at first glance seem harder to push upward in the polls against the headwind of a bandwagon once the media has (correctly) called the race for the frontrunner, as in 1996, there is a difference in the degree of difficulty between pulling up close to 50 and breaking through it.
Again: none of this should be reason for Republicans to celebrate – as I said, nobody in a hole like this has actually won a race. But history tells us that voter preferences can still shift in the last month, and if Obama’s lead now is accurately reflected by the RCP average of +5.3, it is still very much worthwhile for McCain-Palin and their supporters to fight on to the end.
Daniel Horowitz
Neil Stevens
Steve Maley
Jake Walker
Polls
ArtbyRuth Tuesday, October 7th at 10:06AM EST (link)Give me a break….have you forgotten how all the polls said John Kerry was in the lead before the 2004 election? All the media were in the tank for him and couldn’t help but point out how he was going to win.
And what happened?
If the Obama camp is so confident that he is winning, then they wouldn’t be trying so hard to steal this election from McCain. Their actions speak louder than their words.
They are obviously so nervous that they are suppressing votes. Next they will sue to keep overseas military ballots from being counted for whatever reasons….
This race isn’t over. It is far from over. I refuse to fall in line with your way of thinking because I did back in 2004….and found it a waste of time.
Dan
pwest (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 10:10AM EST (link)I take your point. Look, we’re happy the gloves are off; it fires us up. Well Dan’s point is we need to stay fired up until Nov 5th and we need to work hard to win.
Turn out, Turn out, Turn out!
Pam
Pam Checkout the Hotline Poll today
PaRep (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 10:13AM EST (link).
One difference is the proliferation of information sources, too.
spainishirish (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 10:13AM EST (link)I accept the polls as accurate. Yet we also have seen wild swings in matters of days this cycle. Certainly the expotential growth of alternative forms of media accounts for the ability of elections to change on a dime.
The odds are with Obama. But they aren’t insurmountable odds, and the profusion of information may make this election less analogous to previous ones. In other words, the thing could change tonight. That likely won’t happen, but the traditional mainstream media gatekeepers won’t be able to keep a lid on it if Obama blows it.
Dan, even if this election is over
Rod_Patrick (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 10:15AM EST (link)we need to continue campaigning, polishing our ranks, undertake grassroot promotion and education and so much more.
The Dems have been campaigning even after 2006 midterm election while all the reps are so SILENT. In fact, the resigned attitude of the republicans is dated back 2006.
We are now the minority party. We need to expand our base…unite our people.
We don’t want to end like Eastern Europe.
why do you accept the polls as accurate?
E Pluribus Unum (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 10:21AM EST (link)I accept the polls (other than Rasmussen and Zogby) as Treason Media tools to influence public opinion.
Kill the Terrorists
Protect the Borders
Punch the Hippies h/t IMAO
Focus on the issues
warrax Tuesday, October 7th at 10:24AM EST (link)Long time lurker, first time poster.
I’m terrified that we’ll look back on this week as the week McCain lost the election. The decision to go negative now looks like a desperate ploy. It should have been done months ago–why weren’t we discussing Ayres and Wright in August?? Now with the economy being a very real issue McCain looks out of touch. He should hit hard tonight where people need to hear him–what will he do to fix this mess? And not focus on Ayres. It is a losing strategy.
You gotta be in it to win it
Dan McLaughlin (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 10:25AM EST (link)The Obama people who were hitting the panic button around September 12-14 look pretty silly now. Things can change, but only if you stay in the fight.
“No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong.” – Winston Churchill
Eastern Europe Might Be A Step Up...
Strelnikov (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 10:27AM EST (link)…from what the Big Brobama has in mind for the U.S.
Which country is more dynamic right now? Poland? Lithuania?
Or France?
As of November 4, 2008, the Code Words will be: “Klaatu – Borada – Nikto!”
Red staters, I have a question
justlistening Tuesday, October 7th at 10:27AM EST (link)Red staters, I have a question about conservative support for Sarah Palin. I get that conservatives agree with her policies, her political instincts, her values, and her commitment to traditional conservative causes. Those all seem like great reasons for people to support her (and by extension, the top of the ticket). But what I don’t get is how you can argues that she is qualified for the position. If the Democrats had chosen a 20 month governor, former mayor of a small town with no foreign policy or national security experience, would your argument have been: “Yeah, she’s got sufficient qualifications. We just disagree with her policies?”. Seriously?
The pollsters' reputations are on the line.
spainishirish (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 10:30AM EST (link)Sure, polls are manipulated by the MSM in that when swings go Obama’s direction, they are trumpeted, and when they trend toward McCain they are ignored. But the professionals who these biased outlets hire aren’t likely to ruin themselves for The One or the NYT, in that there is a difference. If independent contractors weren’t involved I would agree these were statistically manipulated.
As an aside, I noticed today the trend has been slightly back toward McCain. You won’t hear or read much about it, but with access to RCP you can see it.
UMMM You picked someone with less
PaRep (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 10:36AM EST (link)experience for President Nice try I’ll give you an E for Effort
I did;
pwest (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 10:36AM EST (link)it said six points. Is this better; I say it was seven points yesterday.
Pam
Justlistening.....one word....Obama.....n/t
Attack Mode (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 10:38AM EST (link)n/t
“Land of the Free and Home of da Whopper” Peter Griffin…Family Guy
conform and celebrate diversity….or else!!!
Steel-Belted Radial Right Winger

“I’ll create 5 million jobs from out of unicorn farts and pixie dust” Justatron paraphrasing Obamessiah…yes I love it that much.
Jay Cost disagrees with you
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 10:38AM EST (link)Going negative in August is a useless exercise. People pay attention now, not then.
You can read his analysis here
.
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy
Seriously....
TheAdmiral (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 10:38AM EST (link)just listening…go back over to the DKos and spew your filth over there. Do you REALLY want to get into a pi$$ing match about qualifications? If you do:
Bring.It.On.You.Will.Lose.
Name one thing Your Chosen One has accomplished in his life.
2 books whining about the color of his skin.
130+ votes present in the Senate
Wasting $100M running the CAC indoctrinating Chicago youth in the radical ways of Ayers
And the one piece of legislation he has sponsored in the US Senate, the Global Poverty Act, would tax Americans to the tune of $850B over the next 13 years, directly transferring American wealth to the Marxist cesspool of Africa, in addition to the $60B+ the Bush adminstration has already wasted.
Do you really want to talk about THAT?!?!
As for the polls, I have about as much faith in them as I could pick up and throw Bawney Fwank. I’m in VA and there is no way Obama is up by 11. Did you see the sample of that poll? Over the past 4 elections, Ds and Rs have been basically split with Rs up by maybe 3 in voter registration identification. That recent poll sample had D indentifcation up by 9 over Rs. I’m convinced that the polls are in cahoots with the MSM to suppress GOP voter turnout and make it appear that this thing is over. It’s not…no by a longshot.
Hit hard. Hit fast. Hit often.
Try this on for size Pam
PaRep (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 10:39AM EST (link)p://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/Hotline_100708.htm
The fundamental Difference
Adelthemystic Tuesday, October 7th at 10:41AM EST (link)Between Barack and Sarah (other than the obvious one about which office they would occupy) is that while Sarah’s Experience and history have been vetted by not only the Republican Party and John McCain campaign, but by the Media, and can be legitamately verified as above the board, so to speak, and full of at least some governmental executive experience, Barack’s has not.
In the case of Barack Obama, not so much. He has not been properly vetted by any interested group, even the Republicans, to an extent. He intentionally tries to cover up, mislead, and distract form his erroneous past. He uses misinformation and smoke and mirrors to draw attention away from his tumultuous history and ivolvement in the culmination of the worst finanacial disaster in US history, and worse, he thinks that by putting up another surrogate website with “Truth Squads” running rampant throughout the country he can get away with it.
Moreso than experience, it is the difference between someone who is full of integrity and true concern for the direction of this country, and someone who is interested in only obtaining power at any cost, and then ensuring through policy that the power, once gained, cannot be lost.
Obama is a self serving, power hungry individual with only the good of himself and his party at heart, and I will be proud, if he wins, to have a blazingly colorful bumper sticker that reads “Don’t Blame Me, I Voted for McCain”.
At least until they impound my car for stating treasonous rumors against The One.
If it walks like a moby, and quacks like a moby...
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 10:41AM EST (link)Uhm, have you looked at the top of the Democrat ticket recently?
Let’s do a quick compare, 2 years as Governor of the physically largest state in the US, vs 143 days as a Senator.
Yeah, I’m REALLY concerned about our VP candidate in comparison.
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy
PaRep,
pwest (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 10:41AM EST (link)your link is no good, but I found it.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/Hotline_100708.htm
Pam
Let me make a guess: Poland?
Rod_Patrick (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 10:43AM EST (link)Poland has embraced free market in a conservative way…reminding us of the old, forgotten United States of America….and that’s us.
Think 2010. Be Conservative.
olderthangandalf Tuesday, October 7th at 10:45AM EST (link)Look, we got hammered in 1964 and the net result was a resurgence in Republican principles because Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater stood for something true and stayed classy.
We got killed in the House and Senate post-Watergate and came back when Reagan refocused the party on core philosophical principles.
The likelihood is that McCain will go down, but the far more troubling likelihood is that he is going down without a message. He has decided to focus his campaign on attacking Obama personally, which may be justified on the facts of who Obama is but which sows no long term seeds of Republican principles.
McCain would do us, and himself, more good by focusing less on William Ayres and more on why Republican principles of government are right.
As it stands, Democratic and press attacks on reducing government red tape, free trade, allowing workers to choose union free workplaces freely, balancing environmental urges versus having a functioning economy are going unanswered. As it stands, McCain will lose, and leave nothing behind that can be used to rebuild toward 2010 and 2012.
In the long run, it’s not about personal narratives. It’s about views of what government can and should do, and policy decisions that flow from that. Following short sighted advice (and perhaps spurred on by his own lack of core conservative beliefs), McCain has abandoned all serious talk of policy and philosophy to the Democrats. It will cost us.
O.K. this ought to work
PaRep (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 10:46AM EST (link)http://tinyurl.com/4vlxej
Dave
pwest (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 10:47AM EST (link)You beat me to it. She is running for VP, not P.
Also, if the Dems were really concerned about experience, they would have nominated Hillary. HELLO! HELLO!
3AM, Remember!
Please, it is Apples/Oranges BS!
Pam
The following should therefore be considered disqualified:
Rod_Patrick (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 10:47AM EST (link)so on…
And yet, despite being "unqualified", she debated a 36 year veteran of the Senate to a draw. And he had to make things up out of wholecloth just to do that.
Martin Knight (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 10:48AM EST (link)Read this …
PS: I notice that you have no complaints about the Democrats picking a first term Senator (campaigning since only his second year), former state Senator with absolutely no executive experience, and no actual foreign policy or national security experience either … to be President.
That’s what I don’t get. Sounding pretty is no qualification for the Presidency.
That includes JFK.
Rod_Patrick (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 10:49AM EST (link)The point is this:
Leaders must have GUTS!!!! something Obama and Biden lack.
Watch how amazingly now all the polls
PaRep (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 10:49AM EST (link)fall into line of 2,3,4 point lead for Obama
The reason for the 5 point jump in the Hotline poll 40% Dems, 38% 18% Inds.
I gaurantee you it wasn’t like that yesterday & back
Hear, hear!!
warrax Tuesday, October 7th at 10:50AM EST (link)Well said. And I can’t help but imagine what Fred Thompson was thinking when he watched McCain vote for the bailout.
Return to principles. The rest will follow. Ayres and Wright are a distraction, and McCain looks like a petty, angry empty suit rather than a true conservative.
Focused on the future…
This is
pwest (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 10:52AM EST (link)just more evidence that we should not panic, but fight.
Turn out! Turn out! Turn out!
McCain needs to let the dogs out tonight and continue the momentium (sp)
Pam
Need More Rallies
Swamp_Yankee (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 10:53AM EST (link)Rallies do not more than motivate the base, which is crucial; they provide tons of local media opportunities. Candidates will be the lead story on the evening news and they will be on the front page of all the local newspapers the next morning. If they have some time, they can do a ten minute sit down with a local reporter or call a local talk radio for a half an hour.
Others have noticed McCain’s weak campaign schedule, but the campaign is finally letting Palin loose. They cannot worry that she may overshadow McCain. This was her schedule today:
Jacksonville, Florida
The Jacksonville Landing
Doors open: 7:00 am (EDT)
Pensacola, Florida
Pensacola Civic Center
2:30 pm (ED)
Greenville, North Carolina
Minges Coliseum
East Carolina University
Doors open: 5:00 pm (EDT)
This is tremendous. Between McCain and Palin, they campaign should be doing multiple rallies every single day the rest of the way. They don’t have to be joint; each has enough star power on their own to generate energy. Obama does not have that luxury.
Interesting, but...
warrax Tuesday, October 7th at 10:54AM EST (link)I strongly disagree with his analysis. In any other year, perhaps. But with McCain’s appeal to the base limited, going personal on BO just makes him look like he’s got nothing better to offer. That won’t get the independent voters, who like the empty promises of BO. Where is the tough talk about solutions? Where is the leadership on the future?? Instead it’s all ad hominem attacks.
I hope it works, but I am pessimistic.
Troubled times
bedubyah Tuesday, October 7th at 10:55AM EST (link)I’ve been a supported of John McCain since his 2000 bid. It is painful for me to think how much better we’d all be off now if he had gotten the nod over W. But I guess I’m old school, because the tone John is taking in the last weeks of this election actually reduces his appeal to me. I feel really let down about his campaign admitting they have to go negative in order to have a chance.
Notice the difference in Sundays tracking Poll
PaRep (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 11:01AM EST (link)To Mondays??
Party ID 40%D 38%R 18%I Sun.
Party ID 41%D, 36%R, 19%I. Monday
ALSO Where is the other 45 are they Aliens!!!
How did they increase R’s 2% on a day a lot of Conservatives aren’t home
That is what you call uncooking a poll
BS
pwest (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 11:01AM EST (link)If McCain/Palin get bet baddly by Obama/Biden, then Obama will have coattails and it will be harder to win back the House and Senate.
Plus, who do you think they will pin the blame on: PALIN! ABC already tried; they talked about how their poll showed she was hurting McCain.
Do you not understand the media wants to discredit her because does fire us up so much?
McCain may not be the Conservative you want, but he is the only Conservative who can win. He likes to cut spending, and he put Palin on the ticket for the future of the party. Come on; grow up!
Fight to win this election!
Pam
Warrax.....what can we discuss about Obama that isn't a mere distraction?
Attack Mode (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 11:03AM EST (link)His ties with former terrorist like Ayers and a former PLO member (the name escapes me right now) are legitimate issues that go towards exposing Obama’s character. To simply brush it off as a distraction would border on criminal neglect.
What core conservative principles did you have in mind for McCain to focus on?
“Land of the Free and Home of da Whopper” Peter Griffin…Family Guy
conform and celebrate diversity….or else!!!
Steel-Belted Radial Right Winger

“I’ll create 5 million jobs from out of unicorn farts and pixie dust” Justatron paraphrasing Obamessiah…yes I love it that much.
Yes, Moby, Be Very Troubled
MikeO Tuesday, October 7th at 11:04AM EST (link)McCain/Palin is going to take your empty suit to the cleaners.
Yeah I am not buying it bedubyah....
Attack Mode (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 11:08AM EST (link)So far in your 6 days here I haven’t seen one comment of yours that isn’t either a derision of Palin or a backhanded compliment to McCain.
Oh and I love the twist on the lifelong republican bit…McCain 2000 supporter…nice.
“Land of the Free and Home of da Whopper” Peter Griffin…Family Guy
conform and celebrate diversity….or else!!!
Steel-Belted Radial Right Winger

“I’ll create 5 million jobs from out of unicorn farts and pixie dust” Justatron paraphrasing Obamessiah…yes I love it that much.
My point...
warrax Tuesday, October 7th at 11:09AM EST (link)Is that he’s not offering any solutions, only ad hominem attacks. I think Wright and Ayres will work very well for the base, but not the independent voters we so desperately need this year.
Hopey will stand up tonight and discuss concrete ideas for the economy. McCain will talk about Ayres. Who comes across as a having a plan to fix the economy?
Plus, what if the Dems start bringing up the Alaskan Independence Party or USCWF?
Well, if you are a better analyst than Jay Cost
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 11:12AM EST (link)You might want to get a job with RCP. Jay’s position was earned by correctly calling the results of elections and demographic changes since 2000.
In other words, he has a track record and historical trends and analysis on his side.
You, however, have a bad feeling.
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy
Warrax....again let me ask you a question...
Attack Mode (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 11:13AM EST (link)What core conservative principles should McCain speak about? Answer this question.
“Land of the Free and Home of da Whopper” Peter Griffin…Family Guy
conform and celebrate diversity….or else!!!
Steel-Belted Radial Right Winger

“I’ll create 5 million jobs from out of unicorn farts and pixie dust” Justatron paraphrasing Obamessiah…yes I love it that much.
Not only that...
drjecdo Tuesday, October 7th at 11:14AM EST (link)the exit polls had Kerry in a landslide as late as 4:00 in the afternoon ON ELECTION DAY!
Sure you are
PaRep (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 11:20AM EST (link)Koncerned Khristian Konservative Weenie Troll
Nope ... McCain will talk solutions as well as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and yes, William Ayers.
Martin Knight (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 11:27AM EST (link)If you’re not a Moby, may I ask why you seem to be avoiding the GSE (Fannie and Freddie) issue? Isn’t the subprime mess, and the people (all Democrats) who enabled them at the heart of this mess?
Why should McCain not light Obama up on that?
Yeah, I
pwest (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 11:27AM EST (link)wondered about that. You do good work!
Pam
Let me guess; you're a "lifelong" Republican who is a ...
Martin Knight (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 11:31AM EST (link)… Christian Conservative Conservative Christian who is a Conservative. But you’re so disappointed that McCain is not already conceding that you have no choice, as a Christian Conservative Conservative Christian who is a Conservative, but to vote for Obama.
Bye now
…
Damn right--E
McPALINation Tuesday, October 7th at 11:34AM EST (link)nt
I AM (very disappointed) JOE
OOOPS
PaRep (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 11:34AM EST (link)I have those numbers backwards
This is Mondays Party ID Breakdown: 40%D, 38%R, 18%I.
Sundays is 41% D 36% R 19% I
darn it I have caught a case of Posting Dyslexia today hahaha
Martin Yor forgot
PaRep (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 11:35AM EST (link)to spell the words with K’s instead of C’s
OH! THERE YOU ARE AGAIN PAREP!
McPALINation Tuesday, October 7th at 11:37AM EST (link)to the body…to the body…then slap with the open hand
I AM (very disappointed) JOE
5
mbauer (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 11:41AM EST (link)If the election were held today, between 58 and 59 senate seats would be held by those who caucus with the Democrats. Campaigning isn’t just about winning every time, it’s about getting this country on our side and planting seeds for future victories. If we don’t, and these results continue into 2010, not even a filibuster can save us. This is what scares me.
not buyin' it, smokin-a-dubyah
McPALINation Tuesday, October 7th at 11:50AM EST (link)what do you find so negative? That he’s being asked about his associations? His lack of work-ethic? His allegiances, beliefs, citizenship, and poor judgement? How is that negative? I want to hear his answers, no matter how negative they are, and if he won’t answer those questions WE SHOULD INVESTIGATE AND FIND THEM!
I AM (very disappointed) JOE
No Negative here
ILLINOIS_CONSERV (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 11:56AM EST (link)I am positive that Obama has lied about rev Wright, his association with Tony Rezko, and his ties to his boss- William Ayers. Absolutely positive. How does that work for ya, Bedubya? I bet you are positively on board again.
The only thing necessary for the triumph [of evil] is for good men to do nothing – Edmund Burke
ALL STATISTICIANS WOULD AGREE THAT STRATIFIED SAMPLING IS THE MOST INACCURATE SAMPLING OF THEM ALL!
Rod_Patrick (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 11:56AM EST (link)It should a complete single random sampling.
The assumption for the composition constitutes the bias of the sampling.
ITS NOT ABOUT NEGATIVE OR POSITIVE FOR OBAMA. IT'S ABOUT TRUTH OR LIE.
Rod_Patrick (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 12:01PM EST (link)The test of character is necessary. That’s why they did the same to Sarah Palin.
Now the issue is this:
Why don’t MSM investigative journalists do their homework and go to Chicago to get first-hand information.
Open up the Annenberg Challenge files and see the truth.
Make Obama’s thesis in Columbia available to the people to see whose side he was on… USA or USSR?
Interview those people who witnessed the start of the Obama’s career in Chicago. Where did he launch his first political campaign? In Ayers’ home in Hyde Park?
EVEN IF IT IS NEGATIVE TO OBAMA, IT CAN BE TRUTH YOU KNOW.
We need to answer the question:
WHO IS THE REAL BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA?
Ooh, and you were maintaining so well, warrax.
Moe Lane (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 12:05PM EST (link)Unfortunately, both those phrases were tells.
Blam.
The Kim Kardashian of blogging.
Check out my blog at http://moelane.com/.
http://moelane.com/filthy-lucre-filthy-lucre/
http://twitter.com/moelane
My (combined) wish list.
Moe....was he really "maintaining"...I smelled the stench of Moby rather quickly....;^)....n/t
Attack Mode (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 12:10PM EST (link)n/t
“Land of the Free and Home of da Whopper” Peter Griffin…Family Guy
conform and celebrate diversity….or else!!!
Steel-Belted Radial Right Winger

“I’ll create 5 million jobs from out of unicorn farts and pixie dust” Justatron paraphrasing Obamessiah…yes I love it that much.
You and me both, Aaron
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 12:15PM EST (link)I almost called him on it in my last post to him, but pulled back at the last moment.
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy
The AIP has a simple answer:
Achance (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 12:18PM EST (link)One of the most respected Republican figures in Alaska, Governor and former US Secretary of the Interior Walter Hickel, bolted the Republican Party’s very liberal nominee – we had an open primary then – and ran for Governor as the AIP candidate. Many Rs registered AIP as a part of that process and many more voted AIP to elect Governor Hickel in 1990.
All during the ’70s and ’80s many Alaskans registered and sometimes voted AIP and/or Libertarian as a protest vote. The Ds were controlled by McGovernites and Labor, the Rs had no real identity. Jay Hammond, a two term R from ’74 to ’82, was himself quite liberal and was supported by the McGovernite wing of the Democrat Party who went on to comprise much of Hammond’s Administration – they and their progeny still constitute much of Alaska’s political ruling class. It should be remembered that at Statehood, Alaska was so firmly Democrat that it would only be admitted to the Union concurrently with equally strongly Republican Hawaii so as to preserve the balance in the Senate. It was not until the ’80s that Alaska’s Republicans had any real identity beyond “not Democrats” and Alaska became among the reddest of Red States. During that transition, both the AIP and the Libertarians formed a refuge for conservatives who could not stomach either the Rs or the Ds who were liberal and even more liberal respectively. Though at times, the Ds were more “conservative” than the Rs.
In Vino Veritas
Not trying to sell anything to you
bedubyah Tuesday, October 7th at 12:36PM EST (link)I grew up in the ’80s and Regan’s presidency help formulate my political leanings. I’ve always seen McCain as more of a Regan Republican as opposed to a George W. Bush Republican. Regan always seemed to be above the fray. Even in tough times he was a calm voice and he had a leadership style that was very appealing.
I don’t mean to sound too harsh on Palin. She wasn’t my first pick for VP, but I think she’ll be fine. Sorry if that was the impression you came away with.
I just believe that Conservative ideals are the best way to govern this country. In my mind, it’s what separates us from other Democratic countries in Europe (and elsewhere) and what makes this country great.
Again, I’m not trying to knock our candidates. I’m just expressing my views.
I just don't care about those things
bedubyah Tuesday, October 7th at 12:46PM EST (link)Creating huge expansions of the federal government. Stepping in the way of the free market. Non-comprehensive energy policy.
Those are the reasons why I won’t support Obama.
All of this other stuff is just noise to me that gets in the way of the true allure of Conservative ideals.
Well, Moby
MikeO Tuesday, October 7th at 12:57PM EST (link)Your alternate history of the last thirty years is such an inversion of reality that you even swapped the Gipper with his Treasury Secretary.
I suppose you’re one of those who “…know so much that just isn’t so.”
Temper Tantrum! Temper Tantrum! Temper Tantrum!
Strelnikov (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 12:58PM EST (link)Recall the late Peter Jennings of ABC in some confusion on election night in 1994 describing the results as a national “temper tantrum.”
Let us hope the results will be so confusing to the polls and pundits on the Left that they will be using the same phrase again to describe the booting out of incumbent majority Dems!
As of November 4, 2008, the Code Words will be: “Klaatu – Borada – Nikto!”
If McCain Closes Like Ford, Dole He Loses
LoneStarLibertarian Tuesday, October 7th at 1:28PM EST (link)Of course if McCain closes like Ford did and Dole did, he would still come up short because as long as you’re closing, you’re still behind.
And honestly, while I think that McCain should certainly win over Barack Obama, I can’t help but think that this is what the GOP gets for nominating an economic illiterate like McCain over the brilliant, articulate turnaround specialist Mitt Romney. You know, someone who actually knows the economy inside out and would have Barack Obama spinning in circles in debates on all matters – but especially on those relating to the number one issues – the economy.
And the GOP wouldn’t be pulling out of Michigan and would be performing much more dominantly in the west.
If McCain falls short this time, hopefully the GOP will wise up and nominate the eminently superior candidate next time.
Well, you do seem to have the talking points down ...
Martin Knight (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 1:36PM EST (link)But ultimately, what we do know is that whether or not McCain comes out with a clear and cogent plan (which he actually has) to prevent this sort of thing from ever happening again, and also to pull the economy up, Obamabots like you will still claim he’s offering nothing.
That said, we conservatives have learned to embrace the healing power of “and”. McCain can launch all sorts of attacks on Obama and present solutions you laughably claim to be looking for at the same time. I know you’re shocked, but it’s true – it actually can be done.
Did you see
pwest (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 1:48PM EST (link)DJ Drummond’s disection of the CBS poll.
http://stolenthunder.blogspot.com/
Check it out; you’ll laugh!
Pam
Many observers think Ford would have won except for the Watergate issue that
streetwise (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 5:39PM EST (link)resurfaced, probably with some help from the usual suspects, during the last few weeks of the election.
Dole had another problem. The government shutdown in 1995 was hugely unpopular with independents and the Dems had a serious chance of retaking Congress. However, the eruption of Clinton fundraising scandals made people more favorably disposed towards divided government.