Here’s the state of play as I write. Bush and Capitol Hill Democrats are hammering out an agreement to, in essence, bail out financial institutions and possibly other companies that hold bad debt, mainly mortgage-backed securities. Pretty much everybody on all sides agrees that the bailout proposal stinks to high heaven and is a fundamental violation of everything conservatives believe in and everything liberals believe in, is likely to be hugely unpopular with the public, and in the short term at least will put a big crimp on federal finances. But lots of people on all sides believe that the markets will be stabilized by the deal and will really implode without it, wrecking the rest of the economy. Since markets are all about perception, that could end up being the case, which makes the deal or something very like it necessary. McCain proposed a plan of his own which is not too dissimilar; Obama hasn’t proposed anything. So there aren’t really a lot of alternatives on the table, and no good ones.
Given the general rule that nothing this bad happens in Washington if it’s not bipartisan, the Democrats in the majority are deathly – and justifiably – afraid that if they agree to the deal, McCain and Congressional Republicans will run against it and crucify them. Republicans seem mostly resigned to support the deal in large numbers as long as the Democrats don’t try to hang too many wish-list items on it and turn it into the Mother of All Pork Barrels. And of course, McCain has long experience being the last holdout in the middle whose views dictate the direction of a bipartisan deal. So Bush, Paulson, Reid, Pelosi & Co. actually seem to need McCain in Washington to do what he’s done so often before, get in the middle of things and influence how a deal gets worked out that is just minimally acceptable enough for everyone to sign it. Obama’s presence, by contrast, is mostly superfluous, since nobody really thinks he’s a factor in what goes on in DC, and hot air is never in short supply anyway.
On the campaign trail, by contrast, Obama is benefitting in recent polls from the general sense that bad things are happening and somebody new might have better ideas; he clearly knows better than to spoil that by actually doing anything or having any ideas. Whereas McCain hasn’t been able to get traction from the outside looking in, and doesn’t really seem comfortable blowing the deal up, knowing the consequences. Accordingly, what McCain did today was announce that he’s suspending his campaign over the next several days to come to DC to get a deal done before markets open on Monday, and call on Obama to do the same and to reschedule Friday night’s debate in Oxford, Mississippi, the first one scheduled, focusing on foreign policy/national security. Obama has refused on both counts.
Which has led to the question of the day. McCain is needed in Washington; Obama’s not – and neither is McCain’s running mate, Gov. Palin, who obviously is not a Senator. Should McCain send her to appear on his behalf and debate Obama on Friday night?
Such a debate might actually be a good thing for the nation: people are concerned about whether Obama or Palin, both novices in the area of national security and in their first terms in major political office, are ready to be Commander-in-Chief, Obama on Day One, Palin if anything ever happened to McCain. That readiness issue is one of the core uncertainties in a campaign where neither side has really yet closed the deal with enough undecided voters to win. As a matter of political strategy, the answer to that question seems to come down to two things: whether or not McCain thinks Palin is ready after just a few weeks of prep to go toe-to-toe with Obama on national security two days from now, and whether McCain thinks it’s crucial to have the McCain-Obama debate on national security so McCain can expose Obama’s glib blandishments in detail on the issue.
Let’s walk through the decision tree of what happens if McCain sends Palin to Oxford to represent the campaign. Sending surrogates to campaign events is standard enough practice, but of course sending your subordinate to meet the other guy’s #1 is regarded throughout the worlds of politics, international affairs, and business as fairly insulting, and usually ends up with a cancelled meeting. Obama would probably refuse to debate her, but then again he might not, and McCain has to make the call not knowing for certain what Obama would do, and considering the risks and rewards of both.
Option One: Obama debates Palin.
Potential upsides for McCain:
(1) Expectations would be extremely low, especially if she’s dropped into the debate on barely more than a day’s notice – Palin’s limited exposure to the media has re-created the circumstances before her Convention speech, in which she’s being caricatured as totally ignorant and has a huge upside if she comes off well. We know from obervers of the 2006 Alaska Governor’s race that Palin is an experienced and skilled debater, although of course you can’t debate well if you aren’t 100% up to speed on the subject matter. By contrast, while Obama is well-practiced at BS-ing his way through national security issues he plainly doesn’t understand, he’s actually not a very good debater away from his TelePrompter, where he tends to stammer a lot. If she’s adequately prepared to stand toe to toe with the man universally hailed as the most golden-tongued speaker in the business, she wins just by not getting killed, and could devastate his campaign if she actually comes out his equal or better.
(2) Palin has the element of surprise – Joe Biden’s been preparing to debate Palin, Obama hasn’t.
(3) This would be a colossal television event, far more intensely watched than your usual political debate. Recall the huge ratings for Palin’s Convention speech.
(4) Obama can get awfully snippy when confronted and clearly doesn’t respect Palin at all. He’s already got a potentially bad rep for being dismissive of her, of Hillary, and of female reporters. The potential for him to aggravate the situation by sneering at her is high.
(5) Obama’s stature necessarily drops by talking to McCain’s understudy.
Potential downsides:
(1) Palin is, after all, a foreign policy novice, and unlike Obama this would be her first debate on these issues. She could easily come off poorly, and accelerate doubts about her.
(2) Obama often says things about national security that can be easily dismantled by anyone versed in the issues, but that Palin, even if well-prepped on her own points, might not take him apart on if she’s focused on hitting her own marks. McCain won’t miss the chance to pounce if Obama again thinks Afghans speak Arabic or calls for a worldwide ban on fissile materials.
(3) Nobody’s thinking about national security this week. McCain would rather have this debate closer to the election when the Wall Street crisis is in the rearview mirror a bit.
Option Two: Obama refuses to debate Palin
Potential upsides for McCain:
(1) After weeks of pushing the story that Palin is afraid of reporters, the media has to report that she was willing to face off against Obama and he was afraid of her.
(2) Obama faces the possibility that he comes off as thinking debating Palin is beneath him, which plays into the issues above as well as more general problems with the image of him as simultaneously arrogant, full of himself and glass-jawed.
(3) The media has prepped like crazy for Friday. They have hotel reservations in Mississippi. They won’t be happy if there is no debate.
Downsides:
Honestly, I don’t see one. The Obama camp would spin this as a gimmick, but everything that happens in campaigns is a gimmick. They would argue that McCain’s afraid to debate Obama (he is apparently playing this now as “McCain can’t multitask”) but everybody already knows McCain’s ready to be Commander-in-Chief, and all Obama does then is lower expectations for McCain entering the last two debates. The only loss is if Obama then argues that he doesn’t need any debates at all on national security and refuses to reschedule a third debate, but that is unlikely to go well for him.
Conclusion: If McCain thinks Palin is adequately prepped for a national security debate with Obama and there’s not too much downside to letting Obama evade a national security debate with McCain, sending Palin to represent McCain at the Oxford debate could actually be yet another bold, maverick move in a campaign that’s pulled off a few of them. And if Obama, as I think he would, refuses to debate her, there’s almost no downside to doing it.
Steve Maley
Neil Stevens
Daniel Horowitz
If Gov. Palin spent the entire evening...
rbdwiggins (Diary) Wednesday, September 24th at 6:00PM EST (link)just highlighting Obama’s speech at the Victory Tower, she’d touch on everything that is wrong with the modern liberal’s world-view. Let Obama defend his own words to an American audience. I don’t think he’s up to such a daunting task.
Nope. Don’t see a down-side to a Palin/Obama debate…
Unless you’re Obama.
“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn’t so.” – Ronald Reagan
Not A Good Idea
DavidSage (Diary) Wednesday, September 24th at 6:34PM EST (link)The problem with sending Palin up to debate is it reinforces the liberal myth of, “McCain is too old and not up to the job, he may die in office, and inexperienced Palin will be in the President.”
Palin’s main role is that of shoring up the base, which she has done a bang-up job. Palin doesn’t have the appeal to independents, moderates, and Democrats that McCain does (even though I like her better)
Competence is a good vote getter for a lot of voters, and McCain reeks of it. I like Palin, but if she were at the top of the ticket, and I had no political leanings, I would be inclined to think she’s too green for the White House. I also think Obama is too inexperienced to be President, the difference is, he’s at the top of the ticket.
You’re also taking away McCain’s strongest attribute, foreign policy, and handing off that debate to Palin, who, quite frankly, has zero foreign policy experience.
YES! YES! YES!
LoneStarLibertarian Wednesday, September 24th at 6:43PM EST (link)That is a TERRIFIC IDEA!
One of the weapons that liberals are trying to use against John McCain is that his VP isn’t ready to be president. Well, what happens if the VP steps in for the would-be president in an important campaign event while he’s “putting country first” and working on financial legislation?
I am very confident that Palin would do a great job and definitely go toe-to-toe with Obama. And every time Obama made a dig at McCain in his absence, Palin could retort with effect (at least a few times) that McCain was “putting country first” to work on important legislation and that she was only there debating Barry because Obama was putting his campaign first.
I think that McCain’s campaign suspension could be very smart and sending Palin would make it absolutely brilliant.
Ignorant of the process
mike_carton Wednesday, September 24th at 6:44PM EST (link)“McCain sends Palin to the debate.”
That is not how it works, this is not an 18th century duel. There is a Presidential Debate Commission. There is the “University of Mississippi” that is organizing it and “Jim Lehrer” moderating it. All these people have to be and will be notified if either side wants a change, especially if they are changing the person appearing in the debate. There will be calls from McCain team to Obama team to negotiate the change, a lot of preparatory work needs to done including the questions prepared by the moderator.
Heck, they’ll even have to adjust the partially hidden small platforms behind the lecterns; the platforms designed to make the debaters seem to be of equal height.
Nobody can silently change the participant without other side knowing it till the last minute. I’m also willing to bet the presidential candidates will debate each other and the vice-presidential candidates will debate each other. If McCain tries to send Palin in his place, he’ll lose all respect of the country; as it is, the SUSA poll shows his call to postpone the debate is supported by only 10% of the country. And the call to reschedule the debate to Oct 2 immediately raises of the suspicion that Palin is not ready for her debate on Oct 2; he should never have picked the new date to be Oct 2.
This is a disaster; the late night comics will have a field day with this. McCain’s getting bad advice.
3rd possibility
Canadian4McCain Wednesday, September 24th at 6:46PM EST (link)A good article, but I think you are missing a 3rd move for Obama. Obama would be completely justified to send Biden instead of himself, and turn it into the VP debate. Not sure how that would play, but it seems neutral. I also think that this is far more likely than Obama not showing up.
BRILLIANT IDEA! Send VP to a funeral
Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Wednesday, September 24th at 6:53PM EST (link)Barack’s! That’s what VP’s do. And should Obama wish to expel death knell’s beforehand (complete with inside the casket bells ala The Great Train Robbery then so be it). Let there be no doubt that an outside the beltway Reaganite can read (see understand the great issues regularly obfuscated in DC aka Experience) and better The One whose qualification is that he has spoken to Tom Brokaws outside Mississippi for 18 months.
Let Palin be Palin.
Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson
late night comics?
HerbC (Diary) Wednesday, September 24th at 6:53PM EST (link)uh yeah, uh, sure, work uh, yes, uh I uh
have legislation, uh, to uh, fix this uh, process. but uh, lets uh, have a debate, uh
about, uh, national, uh security…
why, uh, talk about, uh, the economy, uh, tonight?
There's no need
Robert1 Wednesday, September 24th at 7:05PM EST (link)McCain should go to this debate and wipe Obama out. He’s a much better debate than O, and there’s no reason to “risk” Palin, who is just coming up to speed on these issues.
Destroying Obama on Friday will demonstrate that McCain can walk and chew gum at the same time. It will also make the point that Obama is not needed in DC to solve anything, and on top of that is a lousy debater.
Shouldn't Average Joe...
Matt Genk (Diary) Wednesday, September 24th at 7:09PM EST (link)…be headed to Washington as well? Not that I’d want him to actually be in Washington to interject his views and confound the process with this rambling soliloquies. But you get my point.
“Political language is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind.” – George Orwell, Politics and the English Language, 1946
i agree
manish Wednesday, September 24th at 7:09PM EST (link)If Palin gets sent to the debate, then Biden takes her on and it becomes the VP debate with next weeks VP debate becoming the first Presidential debate.
You missed an upside on Palin
The_Gadfly (Diary) Wednesday, September 24th at 7:44PM EST (link)Her charisma matches or is superior to Obama’s. There is a very real sense in which she is a female Ronald Reagan:
1) She is charismatic.
2) She is optimistic.
3) She is PROUD of her country and all the GOOD things it has done. She’s even prouder of its potential to do still greater things.
4) She isn’t afraid of a good verbal brawl.
5) She connects with middle America on an instinctive level.
As for the debate itself, she’s already proven she’s smart and can handle herself. And let’s face it, most high school debaters could run rings around Obama on foreign policy issues. Well, at least they could in my little high school of less than 2000 students.
Bad idea.
nod90 (Diary) Wednesday, September 24th at 7:55PM EST (link)You’re talking about dropping Palin into a widely watched debate on issues she has little experience with and has no time to properly prepare for.
You’re handing the Obama campaign a wonderful opportunity to destroy Palin. Their biggest problem is to avoid looking mean when they do it.
They have a choice of sending either Obama or Biden out to do the deed depending on how they want to play it.
This is the kind of move which always works in Hollywood movies and usually fails in real life.
I must be missing the upside too...
Siberian Wednesday, September 24th at 9:48PM EST (link)I’m sorry but while she’s very likable on the campaign trail and giving speeches, she’s come off very flat to put mildly in the few interviews with the press she’s given.
The interview with Couric today was not very good. A performance like that interview in a debate setting on national television would be a disaster.
Or a big loss for Obama if he doesn't...
wet_rat (Diary) Wednesday, September 24th at 9:48PM EST (link)It all depends whether McCain has confidence in Palin.
Before you answer that question...
VanneGarden Wednesday, September 24th at 10:49PM EST (link)… you should view the full version of the Couric-Palin interview that aired on CBS tonight.
Couric-Palin Interivew (full version)
You have obviously
LuluB Wednesday, September 24th at 11:09PM EST (link)never seen Obama attempt to make a complete and coherent sentance w/o his beloved telprompter.
I've seen snippets
Dan McLaughlin (Diary) Wednesday, September 24th at 11:22PM EST (link)and the snippets have not been encouraging. That said, that is definitely not the entire, uncut interview.
“No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong.” – Winston Churchill
Dan
Rod_Patrick (Diary) Wednesday, September 24th at 11:25PM EST (link)I think it’s not helping.
Better if we just stick to what McCain has said.
We can stop politicking for a while and work for the solution of the Financial crisis mess.
Sarah can help by going to the adversely affected groups and soliciting their opinions, their immediate needs, and find a better way of representing these small people to the overall solution being cooked by the Washington.
Why do I have the feeling, VanneGarden...
Moe Lane (Diary) Wednesday, September 24th at 11:28PM EST (link)…that you’re hugging yourself and rocking right now?
Look, I’ve reviewed your history; and while you’ve been generally calm enough you’ve also been throwing rocks at this woman since day one. I hate to tell you this, but judging from the general lack of reaction this is the first time that you’ve actually gotten any real attention. Congratulations, she had a bad interview. Have a half holiday, and rejoice in your victory.
But if I catch you posting here again without clearly identifying yourself and your agenda I ban you. Understood? – And if you don’t like it, complain to your colleagues with the incest fetish. Your faction’s overdrawn that account.
The Kim Kardashian of blogging.
Check out my blog at http://moelane.com/.
http://moelane.com/filthy-lucre-filthy-lucre/
http://twitter.com/moelane
My (combined) wish list.
Dumb Move
Sean (SIConservative) (Diary) Wednesday, September 24th at 11:59PM EST (link)Not for anything, but McCain and Obama are running for the Presidency, which, by most accounts, is a pretty important job. Three debates aren’t enough, and whittling it down to two heads up appearances would not be a good idea. What’s more is that the foreign policy debate is McCain’s last opportunity to show the nation just how unqualified Obama is to be President. If it weren’t for a reasonable fear that Obama would have no idea what he’s doing when it comes to dealing with foreign heads of state and the war on terror, this election would be over already. McCain’s best move is to participate in the debate as scheduled.
Now, failing that, he does have another very appealing option. He can give Obama the entire time to himself to discuss foreign policy. I’m not sure of what would happen to the format, but if it gave Obama more time and forced him into more detail, there could be days of press about all of his misstatements. He can show better than anyone just how ill prepared he is to become Commander in Chief.
But can the foreign policy debate be retimed?
wet_rat (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 12:13AM EST (link)A foreign policy debate on Friday will be buried. Nobody cares about foreign policy this week, so nobody will remember the debate.
Now if the foreign policy debate can be pushed back a couple weeks, preferably not to a Friday night, then that benefits McCain.
I stopped reading at this lie:
Skeptical1 Thursday, September 25th at 12:15AM EST (link)“Obama hasn’t proposed anything.”
Here’s what Obama proposes for the bailout released today in a joint statement with McCain. He also outlined these principles in a statement released on Sept. 21st.
The obvious lies are getting old and not winning over any independents like me.
If calling someone out on a boldface lie is not being “respectful” then ban me.
Principles are far from a proposal
wet_rat (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 12:19AM EST (link)but they are a start. It remains to be seen whether either candidate will actually touch the internal details of the legislation. The devil lies therein.
I'm not going to ban you for posturing, Skeptical1 / Craig.
Moe Lane (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 12:46AM EST (link)I’m going to ban you for being dumb enough to lie about being an independent while using an email that I could check.
Love your MySpace page, though. The All-Seeing Eye is one of my favorite bits of iconography, too. [But the Obama banners just don't go.]
The Kim Kardashian of blogging.
Check out my blog at http://moelane.com/.
http://moelane.com/filthy-lucre-filthy-lucre/
http://twitter.com/moelane
My (combined) wish list.
{You almost got me conversing.}
Skeptical1 Thursday, September 25th at 12:49AM EST (link){Silly me. – ML}
{Thanks for validating your banning!}
Skeptical2 Thursday, September 25th at 1:20AM EST (link){Five minutes to write, thirty seconds to replace with a Youtube video. Was it a decent rant? – Moe Lane}
Heh, nice try, now-banned troll.
Dan McLaughlin (Diary) Thursday, September 25th at 9:11AM EST (link)I got essentially the same comment over at my blog…must be the spin o’ the day. Sorry, no sale. A generic statement of “principles” does not a plan make. In fact, it almost perfectly encapsulates Obama’s leadership style, which is to make a speech about generalities and call it a day.
“No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong.” – Winston Churchill