Dems Have Permanent Majority … at Least Until the Next Election


Since November, I’ve become accustomed to predictions that the Republican Party is on its way to irrelevance.  Nonetheless, I was disappointed to hear that sentiment voiced by University of Virginia professor and pundit Larry Sabato, who generally tries to provide a relatively objective analysis.  On MSNBC’s Hardball today, Sabato opined that “we’re on our way from being a two-party system to being a party-and-a-half system. And the Republicans are the half a party.”  Here’s Sabato’s analysis followed by my thoughts on why such predictions are silly.

Essentially, it boils down to this. Minorities are going to be the majority by 2042. It could even be by the 2030s. Young people 18 to 29, they voted more than two to one for Obama, and their turnout is going to go up with each additional year as they age. The same with people with graduate degrees, who used to vote Republican on fiscal issues. Now they’re so turned off to Republicans because of [conservative rhetoric] and the social issues, they turned Democratic. Hey, you can`t just win with white male voters in the South, and that’s what the Republicans have left.

This sort of analysis sounds quite logical but is reminiscent of what the pundits said following the re-election of both Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush.  After the 1984 election, expert after expert explained why the shift of population and thus electoral votes to the Sun Belt had given the Republicans a “lock on the Electoral College.”  Despite my youthful eagerness for a GOP presidential monopoly, this electoral analysis struck me as too sweeping and simplistic to be correct.  Unfortunately, I was right.

Following the 2004 election, the message from the experts was the same, though the explanation had changed.  Now the Democrats had little chance of winning presidential elections because they were only competing in states that accounted for barely half of the 538 electoral votes.  It was a seductive argument, but again it was too simplistic and backward-looking to be true.

Predictions of electoral locks are appealing in their simplicity and particularly persuasive in the aftermath of a one-sided election.  But, like all analyses based on sample sizes of one or two elections, they’re essentially worthless, if only because the news headlines and candidates that await us are unknowable  Although it’s much less fun and won’t get you a guest appearance on MSNBC or FOX, the only honest analysis is admitting that you haven’t got a clue about what’s going to happen in future elections.


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If it is true

DerKrieger (Diary) Monday, April 20th at 11:37PM EST (link)

…then maybe secession won’t turn out to be such an ‘extremist’ idea. After all, why would conservatives want to live forever under a Liberal/Socialist yoke?

“In questions of power, let no more be heard of confidence in man, but bind him down from mischief by the chains of the Constitution.” – Thomas Jefferson

“I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence, the money of their constituents.” – James Madison

Whenever the legislators endeavor to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience.” — John Locke, 1690

Secession is not an option.

Brian Hibbert (Diary) Tuesday, April 21st at 7:48AM EST (link)

This is my home. I don’t want to leave it, I want to fix it.

Candidate for Trustee of Illinois Central College
Socialism doesn’t work. It looks nice on paper, but it’s been tried and it’s failed miserably every time (usually accompanied by widespread death and suffering).
Proud member of the V.R.W.C.

Take back our party!
Check out Unified Patriots

 
 

Excellent post.

noufa Monday, April 20th at 11:57PM EST (link)

These pundits seem to think that party ID is static like it was in immediate post WW2 era. But partisanship is steadily declining.

Remember the vaunted independents. Most are nitwits, but both parties are eager to court their votes. With good reason, because they are growing as a political bloc.

We need to work for their votes. But we should remember that the defining characteristic of “independents” is their lack of allegiance to either political party.

“Obama is not a centrist. He was never centrist. He is a uniter. He does reach across the aisle. But he always do so in pursuit of progressive ends.”

-Jonathan Stein of Mother Jones 1/31/08

 

Sabato is wrong

Dencal26 Tuesday, April 21st at 12:32AM EST (link)

Sabato assumes liberal college kids remain liberal all their life. But they don’t. In fact the majority become more conservative as they enter the workforce and get married.
I live in the Blue State of New Jersey where 44% of us voted McCain. Its not as if we are all Southern White Males. We aren’t. Its not as if Obama won 100% of the votes inside blue states. I see more and more traditional Democrats moving over to the GOP as years go by. White Christian middle class people who see their party being taken over by militant blacks, homosexuals and ACLU Jewish Liberals. These white Christian Democrats are a people without a party. I would wager that Geraldine Ferraro voted for McCain in November. The youth vote always tends to lean left. As they age they do not remain liberals

 

Social Issues and Image

dld1717 (Diary) Tuesday, April 21st at 12:43AM EST (link)

Many of the suburbs that once voted republican for many fiscal reasons started to sway Democrat lately and many of that is due to social issues. Even people who are dismayed at Democrat always raising their taxes are not forthright to admit they would ever vote Republican because the “image” that many city people feel the Republican party is today

Many people in suburbs enjoy city life and all that entails.

Really? And They'll Still Vote Dem When They Can't Afford Their Groceries or Home Heating Oil?!

IJB Tuesday, April 21st at 1:12AM EST (link)

That’s why prognostications like Sabato’s are so asinine – they assume a totally static environment, not just politically/demographically, but economically/socially too.

What if current Dem policies lead to the crime rate skyrocketing (and there are already anecdotal signs that that very thing may be starting to happen right now) – do you think those smug comfy suburbanites will continue to pull the level for the Dems over the right to unfettered 3rd trimester abortions and gov’t subsidized condoms if their houses are getting broken into every week?! I think not!

It’s a truly idiodic thing for Sabato to say. But I’m not surprised – I don’t view either Sabato, or Charlie Cook or Stu Rothenberg as “honest brokers”. They’re as much in the tank as, say, Chuck Todd. They’re just not as overt about it.

 

I think it's more migration patterns

scarlos (Diary) Tuesday, April 21st at 1:45AM EST (link)

Most of these areas are getting lots of people from the firmly democratic inner cities moving out. I know this is the case in Oakland county, where they have essentially gotten all the Liberal whites fleeing Detroit.

It’s also pretty prevalent in the Inland Empire and the Pennsylvania suburbs, and probably many more places that I’m forgetting right now.

And anyway, if they are turned off by social issues but are still conservative on fiscal issues, they should have voted Republican in the economic-dominated 2008 elections, which they (mostly) didn’t.

Socialism is Oligarchy in disguise

 
 

Being political correct Sabato does not state the obvious

robmikpet (Diary) Tuesday, April 21st at 12:56AM EST (link)

for the first time is US political history you have a basically illegal, corrupt group -ACORN – organized to advance the fortunes of one political party by defrauding the entire electoral process. Wait til 12 to 16 million illegals get the vote with their own ACORN driver to take them to the polls. That is a situation that we cannot allow to happen.

Another way to put this is, America and everything it stands for is being slowly destroyed.

I'd quarrel with the "slowly destroyed" part. nt

Achance (Diary) Tuesday, April 21st at 6:57AM EST (link)

In Vino Veritas

 
 

Larry Sabato...

Jack (Diary) Tuesday, April 21st at 6:17AM EST (link)

is wrong more then he is right.

Jack

“If at age 20 you are conservative you have no heart. It at age 30 you are liberal you have no brains.” Sir Winston Churchill

That's funny Jack

Scope (Diary) Tuesday, April 21st at 6:40AM EST (link)

We both posted at the same time, and both used the Winston Churchill comment. I like yours better, it means common sense may happen at a younger age.

 
 

Sabato is a Liberal from Liberal UVA

Scope (Diary) Tuesday, April 21st at 6:38AM EST (link)

Sabato was the big honcho who played a major role in Hillary Clintons UVA visit during the campaign. McCain didn’t even bother to make an appearance (no loss) anywhere near the Liberal College town of Charlottesville, or at UVA. I disagree Curt that he is “usually relatively objective.” Sabato never met a camera or microphone he didn’t like. In these parts (I live about 15 miles from the University) Sabato is a known Liberal quantity, along with much of the University staff. If I am not mistaken, Janet Napolitano graduated from the JAG program at UVA. Can’t get more Liberal than that.

As to Sabato’s think about the students remaining Liberal, he missed the lesson that as people get older, start paying taxes and financing their own way in life, they start paying attention to the dollars and freedoms that are taken from them by a Liberal Government. Right now, his students are all being taught that everything in life should be “fair” and “equal”, and that there really can be that perfect utopian society. Wait until those same students find out that whatever they earn through their own accomplishments, will be taken away, so that even those that accomplish nothing will have the same, so that all can be made equal. You know it goes back to the old saying- If you are 20 and not a Liberal, you don’t have a heart. If you are 40 and not a Conservative, you don’t have a brain.

Yep

redstate_prof Tuesday, April 21st at 9:35AM EST (link)

Sabato is a big lib. Every election he predicts that the Democrat will win. He predicted Obama, Kerry, Gore, Clinton, Clinton victories. Since he is 60% correct obviously he is un biased, LOL. (I don’t know his other predictions but I can assume that they follwo the same pattern.)

I went to UVa. Sabato will say anything that he thinks will help the Democrats. He is an academic joke.

 
 

We thought Republicans were finished in 1976, too

dwarfmama (Diary) Tuesday, April 21st at 6:56AM EST (link)

After Nixon and Agnew both resigned in disgrace, and Ford pardoned Nixon, “everybody” thought the Republicans were permanently tarnished. After four years of Carter, I believe that Donald Duck could have won in 1980. Fortunately, we were offered much better than Donald Duck.

Our contest is not only whether we ourselves shall be free, but whether there shall be left to mankind an asylum on earth for civil and religious liberty. (Samuel Adams)

 

This is all fine and dandy, assuming one thing.......

Kenny Solomon (Diary) Tuesday, April 21st at 7:46AM EST (link)

We’re all assuming that we’ll still have free and open elections, regardless of groups like ACORN and the unions.

Remember, the 2010 Census, which is now controlled by The White House, takes place before the election and will have massive effects on redistricting the entire country to suit the Marxist’s needs.

You can't rig elections if you have too large a majority against you

civil truth (Diary) Tuesday, April 21st at 8:12AM EST (link)

Kenny, the rigging and census manipulation will work so long as the country remains narrowly divided, where a few percentage points will shift the election results. Should there be a widespread reactions against the leftists, then these manipulations will be inadequate.

The Democrats are hoping for continued polarization of the electorate and narrow margins in many elections so that their manipulationis can be magnified. As in how all four “close” Senate races are likely to end up with the Democratic candidates winning (three so far). And they may be correct.

However, it’s if there is a widespread reaction that things get perilous. Then the Democrats would have to get into outright repression by force or blatant cheating, hoping to intimidate the opposition.

Hard to know – the far left was fearful that the Bush admininstration would try a coup d’etat rather than give up power – and they were totally wrong. Similarly, I don’t see evidence that most Democrats would try to hold on by force against electoral defeat – they still believe in elections and vote pendulums, and thus would just lay in wait for their next opening.

The open question, though, is whether there are enough hard leftists around who can intimidate the other Democrats to keep quiet and acquiescently go along for the ride. We certainly have enough fellow-travelers (or co-conspirators) in the media who would be happy to provide cover.

The bigger problem will be the Republican’s party ability to field candidates – that is where the Democrats are already focusing their efforts – to preemptively take down possible Republican candidates.

After all, if the Republicans don’t run candidates, then it doesn’t matter how much the electorate opposes the policies of the incumbents. If there’s no credible opposition candidate in the face, then you don’ thave to cheat,

The voter registration and census manipulation are icing on the cake – an insurance policy if things are close.

The real battle in the trenches is campaign money and character assassination. The campaign against Gov. Palin was just the first example. we’ve already seen other efforts to take down opposition figures. That’s the Obama/Chicago way. (Along with the usual money and systematic corruption.)

The greatest evil…is conceived and ordered (moved, seconded, carried, and minuted) in clean, carpeted, warmed, and well-lighted offices, by quiet men with white collars and cut fingernails and smooth-shaven cheeks who do not need to raise their voice. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the offices of a thoroughly nasty business concern. -C.S. Lewis

http://www.gmsplace.com/

 
 

I think Duverger would disagree

WarEagle01 (Diary) Tuesday, April 21st at 8:39AM EST (link)

Unless our system of government drastically changes (a distinct possibility while Barry is in office), we will always have a two party system.

“A wise, doughy leg with rich tingly experiences will always reach better conclusions than will a more tanned, muscular leg that hasn’t felt those thrills.” –Chris Matthews’ Leg

“The alternative to the awful extremity of abortion is the indispensable joy of introducing this flawed world to someone who might make it better.”–John Hayward (AKA Dr. Zero)

 

Larry Sabato?

Hera Tuesday, April 21st at 9:23AM EST (link)

This is the same Larry Sabato who predicted that George W. Bush would not be reelected back in Aug 2004. This was right around the time that the swiftboat veterans came on the scene and a few months prior to Osama Bin Laden’s endorsement of John Kerry. Two years is an eternity in politics and anything can happen.Sabato certainly should know that.

Re: Larry Sabato?

WarEagle01 (Diary) Tuesday, April 21st at 11:44AM EST (link)

Yeah, it’s funny how people like Sabato get it right roughly 50 percent of the time. They’re basically guessing. And yet, they keep their jobs because the only thing they’re ever held accountable for is what they get right and their bosses just seem to forget all the times they’re wrong. That’s the kind of job I need. :)

“A wise, doughy leg with rich tingly experiences will always reach better conclusions than will a more tanned, muscular leg that hasn’t felt those thrills.” –Chris Matthews’ Leg

“The alternative to the awful extremity of abortion is the indispensable joy of introducing this flawed world to someone who might make it better.”–John Hayward (AKA Dr. Zero)