Redstate

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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

A margin of 30??

Former Fredhead, Current McCainiac
absentee

(-2.75, -4.92)

http://www.redstate.com/blogs/gamecock/2008/jan/26/obamas_sc_victory_sho...

Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com

to marginalize Barack all week, think they see it happening, and lazily assume its so with an "only"? 25% Obama white vote, not bothering to notice how respectable that is when his opponents are two white people, one a first lady with the best politician alive in SC 24/7 making great speeches and the other a native!

Obama did great, and many whites in SC voted for a black man to be president. This is a great night for America.

Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com

Hope and Change are not issues.

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Hillary's "experienced change" vs. Obama's "hopeful change" vs. Edwards' "angry change." Image and marketing in a Democratic primary where everyone seems to agree on everything.

And wherever men are fighting against barbarism, tyranny, and massacre, for freedom, law, and honour, let them remember that the fame of their deeds, even though they may be exterminated, may perhaps be celebrated as long as the world rolls round. ~ Winston Churchill

I thought he was more change back to the past when Democrats turned society upside down to help unions. So from the dem perspective that might be conservative change.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

...have you noticed what Web site this is? I'm just checking.

I mean, have we bothered to do anything to the SC Democratic primary? They seem quite keen on doing it to themselves just fine without our help.

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

Its been serious times for the past 16 years. One party has completely failed to realize this and has done everything they could to polarize things. When they are broken and in the dirt then will be the time to reconcile.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

im just wondering exactly what answers any of the democratic candidates have been proposing for these "serious" times. They have yet to address the serious issue of islamo fascism, they have not answered the question as to how they would keep america economically strong, and especially Obama, has not answered anything at all other than to spout Change Change Change. Change to what and how is what I am asking him,

so if you could enlighten us as to how these democratic candidates are going to address the serious questions before us, we would appreciate it.
"Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other."

-- John Adams

Is that all the SC primary is to you, blood sport?

Yes.

Geez, I tried to be as concise as possible.

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The Red Sox Republican: Burkeanism, Baseball, and Sundries.

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

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Who are you telling it to? You think the way Hillary and Obama are going at each other on the, ahem, issues, is the doing of anyone here???

If you got a complaint about bloodsport, you're sure as hell talking to the wrong people about it, Jack. On the other hand, if that's the way they want to play it, ...what, you expect US to have a problem with it?

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"It will not be McCain."

-Taniwha

"real people voting on real issues"
"a seminal election"

Oh, fella, get OVER yourself!

Mockingly and condescendingly,
smagar

"Who will stand/On either hand/And guard this bridge with me?" (Macaulay)

All these folks are doing is picking which candidate will lose to Ron Paul in the general.

OK, I tried to do that with a straight face. But I just couldn't. Sorry.

and msm spin that Barack is now just a black candidate.

Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com

Seems to play to it. If he had of gotten 51% or at least in the region of that it would demonstrate superior crossover appeal. At some point he has to show he can win more of the White and Latino vote than Hillary. Otherwise her spin holds up.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

The msm marginalize Barack all week (forget all that), think they see it happening, and lazily assume its so with an "only"? 25% Obama white vote, not bothering to notice how respectable that is when his opponents are two white people, one a first lady with the best politician alive in SC 24/7 making great speeches and the other a native!

Obama did great, and many whites in SC voted for a black man to be president. This is a great night for America.

Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com

As well as carry the state ? Amongst democratic circles aren't his chances considered to non existent ? So what would it take to get someone out there to vote for him ?

I'll have to take your word about Hillary making great speeches. The minute I hear her voice my mind shuts down replaced by the fight or flight reflex.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

was so liberal after he got in that he didn't even try to win re-election.

Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com

SC has become. You are completely correct and that is indeed worthy of celebration. It will be a plus when we aren't talking about this as an issue at all.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

Obama winning is good? What? I want the GOP to win. Obama will defeat us, in the House and Senate as well.

Do you care about winning the White House? I do.

Are you interested in Hillary dragging down 25 House Democrats to defeat by virtue of her being at the top of the ticket? I am.

Check your head, dude.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

Old people who are worried about SS or remember FDR, public employees, (some), twenty-somethings (some), rich Yankee transplants in Hilton Head, and Blacks. I know you love and want to defend your home state, but this ain't saying what you're sayin' its sayin'. Race in The South isn't what Yankees and the MSM say it is, but this election isn't proof of it. Put a Black man or woman on the R ballot and if he or she shows well, your point is made.

In Vino Veritas

Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com

a few months a year too.

In Vino Veritas

happiness for 5 seconds before you school me from Alaska and summers.

Racism: whites won't vote for blacks

SC in 2008: whites vote for a black

duh

Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com

but it ain't epochal. It's a Democrat primary, and nobody I know down there is a Democrat anymore.

In Vino Veritas

its not! My happiness at what it is will not be diminished!

smile

Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com

In Vino Veritas

Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com

your point? You know my friend, I have lived here all my life. I was an activist and party official in SC from 1980-1998 in the party that voted tonight. Again, what is your point?

Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com

Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com

Honestly, it's good any time when a voting bloc unshackles itself from monolithic identity politics.

lesterblog.blogspot.com

voting for a black candidate is unshackling from monolithic identity politics?

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

Or to be more accurate, voting against the first black President's wife, though with the tag-team performance going on, it's not clear how many Clintons are running for President.

And Rightly So!

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

(-2.75, -4.92)

I'm clearly a McCain supporter, but I hate BHO the Arabist. Here Is Why. I think HRC is a much easier candidate to beat but if the worst happens and a Dem wins, I don't want it to be the second coming of Jimmy Carter, the Weak Little S**t. Also, I think his speeches are full of empty feel-good words. If Edwards were the 2004 version, I'd prefer him to HRC but he's gone all nutso. She's just power-hungry but she's the most pragmatic of the three. But make no mistake - I DON'T want any of the Dems to win against any GOP candidate.

John S. McCain III
We've come a long, long way together/Through the hard times and the good
I have to celebrate you, baby/I have to praise you like I should

That is quite the ignorant, pseudo racist comment there buddy. Not the kind of remarks I want to hear from anyone of any political persuasion to make.

The truth can only be found by those who seek it.

You are at serious risk of sustaining your account by calling Obama "the Arabist."

Don't do it again and don't ask why. If you don't know why, you might ought to stick around here.

Fight On!

I'm sorry, but I don't understand why this term is considered inflammatory. Back when the issue of Israel and the Arabs first started getting big - prior to the creation of the state of Israel - there were two groups in westerns governments - Zionists and Arabists. It's well known that there are a lot of Arabists in the State Dept as well as in the government of the UK. Given that Obama has many Arabists who are advising him, it seems a fair point to make. I linked to the article that points this out. Why is this not something that can be brought up?

John S. McCain III
We've come a long, long way together/Through the hard times and the good
I have to celebrate you, baby/I have to praise you like I should

Here is an example of the term in use. I don't see anything racist or improper about it. I will not continue to use if there still is an objection, but I'd like to know why.

http://www.michaeltotten.com/archives/000797.html

John S. McCain III
We've come a long, long way together/Through the hard times and the good
I have to celebrate you, baby/I have to praise you like I should

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Here was one article pointing out a large number of Arabists on BHO's team.

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/pollak/2085

John S. McCain III
We've come a long, long way together/Through the hard times and the good
I have to celebrate you, baby/I have to praise you like I should

There's been a fair bit of unsupported accusations about Barak being a secret Muslim, play on words with his middle name, etc. that has poisoned the well regarding linking him with Arabs, the Middle East, and Islam.

The word Arabist thus is probably off-limits during the campaign as most who hear it will not understand it in its proper meaning. Same problem with "fascist" and "Nazi" whose actual meaning has gotten hijacked and turned into attack phrases.

And Rightly So!

Honesty, I thought most people here would understand that I was using the original meaning of the term (at least in the political sense). I don't want to be misunderstood, so I'll refrain from using it in future. At least in regards to BHO.

John S. McCain III
We've come a long, long way together/Through the hard times and the good
I have to celebrate you, baby/I have to praise you like I should

The pro Palestinian position is normally called ... Palestinian. Arabs are a term that refers to a particular socio ethnic group in the middle east. The Iranians who are very pro Palestine/ anti Israeli, are not Arab they're Persian. Using his full initials ( pointing out the Hussein middle name) and then using the adjective "Arabist" is very suspect.

As a side note, wikipedia does not mention the definition you referenced. According to them an Arabist is simply a western Academic that studies Arab culture. Israel isn't even mentioned.

The truth can only be found by those who seek it.

For the record, I usually use initials - BHO and HRC. It's faster, that's all. I sometimes even say JSM.

John S. McCain III
We've come a long, long way together/Through the hard times and the good
I have to celebrate you, baby/I have to praise you like I should

Wouldn't it be better if we focused on the race based policies Byrd and most all dems advocate now, and have since the 60s?

Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com

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Donate to the Rs in Close Senate Races through Slatecard

n/t

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

...is going to be invaluable this go-round:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/

They have 2004 and 2000 results (in 2004, the GOP had a caucus in SC; in 2000, so did the Democrats).

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

For the turnout info and for the link

It's because of all the black voter turnout in SC, an unusually high black voter turnout for the primaries, but it's easy to see why given the presence of such a highly touted black candidate. The GOP will still carry this state easily in November. If they don't, it'll be because they're losing by historic margins nationwide (think 1964), and that just isn't going to happen.

Hang all traitors and secessionists! Hang them high!
- Me

I'm still on record predicting she buries him on Super Tuesday, making all this stuff forgotten.

We shall see.

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don't forget the 40% of the delegates that are Super-delegates -- party high Mugawumps -- guaranteeing the right candidate wins.

For them this time around. With the possible exception of Edwards.( He won't win but he will let them make legislative gains).

Of course the same may hold true for us. I don't even think we have a candidate that will let us have a pick up in the legislature.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

...are proportional and so there's no way for her to bury him a week from Sunday. Best case scenario is that she gets 10-15% in most of the big states, which still leaves her a LONG way from the nomination and may actually put John Edwards in the drivers seats where determining the ultimate winner is concerned.

More importantly, Obama received more votes than the top two Republicans combined.

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...burying Obama on Super Tuesday.

I just added it up, 1475 pledged delegates are up on 2/5 for the Democrats, with a great many of those delegates coming in non-Southern states like New York, California, and Illinois.

So let's say it splits 49-41-10 Clinton-Obama-Edwards, giving Clinton a lead approximately in line with national polling. The resulting delegate count is: 723-605-147, which uh, completely wipes out any advantage he had up until now. RCP gives him +12 among primary and caucus-selected delegates as of right now (and -85 among superdelegates, but of course that can chance).

So unless he can crack into the 'white' Democratic vote somehow, he'll fall into a hole he can't get out of. If we add that Super Tuesday count to what RCP has right now, he'll be down 969-778, trailing her by 25% of his delegates.

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...and then the delegate gap gets even closer.

He MAY end up down after next Tuesday, but it won't be a "burial".

Right now she's got the slightest edge... but only if her leads hold up.

If we split it Clinton 54-Obama 46, we get 796-679 on 2/5, and then a lead of 1042-852 for Clinton, putting her over halfway to the nomination, and again up by 22% of his delegate count.

So basically for Obama to get anywhere, you have to dump all the Edwards voters into his total AND assume the trends in states like California and New York will shift after this SC vote.

And this doesn't even address the twin issues of Florida and Michigan.

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...district, because though HRC won Nevada and New Hampshire she actually got LESS delegates in the latter and the same in the former.

See here:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D

Nevada was a fluke of parity, for crying out loud. Obama can't get that lucky.

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...even if he loses California by, say, 10%, he'll probably stay within less than 5% of the California delegate count. Time will tell. I'm just saying there's almost no possibility that HRC can bury him on the 5th.

I just expect Obama backers to see the results flood in, and start getting that sinking feeling deep in their guts that this just isn't the year.

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He's still the outside, African-American, running for the President of the United States of America... which absolutely makes him the dark horse (no ill imagery intended).

The three nominees for the Presidential candidate
were Jonathan Edwards, a former Senator and a labor socialist
Rodham Clinton, a feminist
Kucinich, again, a spaceship specialist
From Chitown came a dark horse riding up
He was Obama, Audacious with his Hope

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....from here forward.

James K Polk by They Might Be Giants, heh.

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on Super Tuesday in the non-native john edwards son states. But do I expect Hillary to ultimately prevail? yes
But tonight made that less likely not more.

Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com

Fear that he will actually happen is going to get out the vote for either Edwards or Hillary. His victory in SC and its nature will be the catalyst that takes Fear to its max. Hope that he does happen is already at max.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

...in the white male vote in SC and killed her in the white vote under 30.

Who is afraid of an Obama win? There's a REAL split in the Democratic part and despite the way our candidates played it in SC (read idiotically) its not NEARLY as muh about race as it is about age.

I believe the exit polls and the fact that there is a third candidate

http://www.redstate.com/stories/elections/2008/democrats_the_party_of_th...

There they are again. Is it despair making you forget the actual election ?
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

My despair about what?

Democrats are killing Republicans in Presidential primary turnout so far.
Republicans have 23 Senate seats to 13 Democratic seats to defend.
The Republicans have 10 open House Seats that are listed as tossups, the Democrats have none.
The Democrats are out polling Republicans in every generic party poll.
The Democrats currently have three candidates (two historic candidates) that I can support, Clinton being my least favorite, but if she won... so be it.

What do you imagine I despair about?

(Beyond the economy.)

...how Democrats are reacting to Obama?

More Democrats have voted for Obama then ANY OTHER Republican candidate.
More WHITE Iowans voted for Obama than ANY OTHER Republican candidate.

Yes there are three Democratic candidates and some people find reason to vote for all three. If YOU choose to see only race that's your problem, not mine.

You just made a comparison between a race thats pretty much a head to head contest with a spoiler vs a race that has 5 strong candidates a spoiler and two also-rans.

All we have to do is unify our party by the election. Does yours even have a hope of doing that at this point ?
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

...when you have no argument, please do not resort to telling me how I FEEL.

What, are you Kreskin, now?

All you have to do is unify the party?

OH, is THAT ALL.

You're right I'm sh-sh-shaking in my boots.

Again:

Democrats are killing Republicans in Presidential primary turnout so far.
Republicans have 23 Senate seats to 13 Democratic seats to defend.
The Republicans have 10 open House Seats that are listed as tossups, the Democrats have none.
The Democrats are out polling Republicans in every generic party poll.
The Democrats currently have three candidates (two historic candidates) that I can support, Clinton being my least favorite, but if she won... so be it.

Next time you organize a poker game, save me a seat.

You don't bluff very well and have some obvious tells so it should be fun.

Lets leave with this observation. Just why are you putting out irrelevancies ? To bolster your argument that the democrats are the powerhouse. Do you really think the extra voters that came out for hillary are going to vote for Obama in the general ? Or the black voters are going to show up and vote for Hillary ?

Oh just an upside. You will probably get your Ron Paul voters back.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

...for Hillary will absolutely show up for Barack. The other way around will require a combining of forces and/or a reconciliation, which OFTEN happens after a primary fight.

Now, the only way this DOESN'T work out is if the nominee is chosen at the convention through, say, the seating of the disputed Florida delegates.

Could happen, but that's not the state of the game so far.

Beyond that, YES, given the landscape the Democrats will retain most of the voters for the "finals" hat came out for the "semis."

The Latinos showing up to vote for Hillary will vote for Obama. The Old white women who had bad marriages are going to transfer their allegiance to Obama.

There is one thing we do agree on. I have no doubt that the Democratic party will come up with more hypocrisy and equivocation to try and plaster things over post primary.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

...I'll take any bet you want to make.

You were the one that wanted to wait for "more info".

5-10 seats in the house.
3-5 seats in the senate.

She will through her and bill's weight funds and influence towards helping the people that just spoiled their hopes.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

Current Rasmussen national tracking: Clinton 36, Obama 33, Edwards 18, Other 13.

I'm actually expecting him to fall off now that he even finished a distant third in one of his home states.

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...that Hillary Clinton is going to *lose* Florida*, California, Pennsylvania [Yes, yes, PA doesn't have it on 2/5], New Jersey, and New York? :)

Moe

*We will dispense with the polite fiction that Florida will not have its delegates seated in August.

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

...no I mean that she gets a 10-15% delegate advantage on Super Tuesday with most of those races closing fast between now and then (and him winning more states than anyone expects).

FTR, I don't expect a blowout on 2/5, either. I do expect her to prevail on the first ballot in a disputed convention, which is honestly going to be much worse for your Party.

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!