and I hope you’re right about the turnout working in your favor.

You’d make a hell of a Senator.

For the record. I’m voting DeVore. I frankly think Florina is going to win, but based on the latest polling I think Campbell is going nowhere but down. Which is all that really matters, Either Chuck or Carly should beat Boxer in November. I can see DeVore coming in second ahead of Campbell, and I think he has a bright future.

Hopefully I’m wrong and Chuck pulls it off. And Campbell goes away permanently.

“with Fiorina at 37%, Campbell at 22% and DeVore at 19%, a more than doubling of support from the last poll taken in March.”

The kick in the gut truth about Republican politics in California:

Only a Republican can find a way to brag about being in last place.

Bring on the arrows, the quotes – historical and biblical, bring on the insults… but please!

good for DeVore. Hope he pulls it out and the runoff stays between him and Carly. Would make my year to put both Boxer and Campbell in the masses of the unemployed.

Being a lone conservative surrounded by liberals, I’m used to playing the contrarian, so no offense.

But let you PR people talk like that. A candidate who openly hopes for low turnout already looks a little defeated. It also looks a little und-democratic.

Your the underdog. You’ve got nothing to lose. Swing for the fences. Think big. Inspire more confidence. The end is near. Its time to go big or go home.

You cant be a stud QB and tell the world your going to win the big game becasue the other side doesnt care. You got to tell your troops and the world that your going to win because you’re the best

it’s Karl Rove who advised us to be the “go to” person in your family and that’s become the case with me.

I just got an email from the founder of the largest bay area TEA Party (said to be 10,000 strong) inviting people to come to sign waiving parties all around the bay in support of Chuck DeVore.

Go Chuck! You pull this off, we’ll make you a household name and all Californians will have heard of you by November.

A person must have belief in a sacred ideal, and have the faith in others and themselves to see it to a logical conclusion.

So far the logical conclusion is Chuck Devore being elected Senator.

I know of more than 25 people who will be voting for him outside of my own family. They in turn have spoken to others. The word has spread in the active military, retired military, hunting and fishing communities, in the construction and engineering groups. The word has spread to the medical, farming and senior communities.

This coming Tuesday feels different.

One Person. One Vote. As guaranteed by Our Sacred Ideal-
The Constitution of the United States of America

One Person. One Vote. The faith of person casting the vote and the person receiving that vote.

Belief in a better tomorrow and Faith it will happen.

This republic was not established by cowards; and cowards will not preserve it. ~~Elmer Davis

I am stone forged from the fires of creation into flesh ~~Pamela1631

The greatest civilization is one where all citizens are equally armed and can only be persuaded, never forced.~~Maj. L. Caudill, USMC (Ret.)

The Concord Project: Fighting for Freedom in the Fall

Still at it with the doubled since March? The jump from the high single digits to the mid-high teens happened six weeks ago. Ever since, Chuck has been steady in the 14-16 range, with a couple minor outliers like this 19 and the 12 from Probolsky. Maybe going up very slightly, but nothing dramatic. As long as that is the case, rising positives, while obviously a better thing to have than not, aren’t so useful if they don’t translate into increased support.

Also, its hard to square hoping to win by low turnout and doing well among those who do not typically vote. I suppose it would require not just any low-turnout election for that to help, but an extremely unusual one in which the unlikely voters show AND the likely ones don’t, and both by a very large margin.

Its hard to imagine, barring any new scandal or radically different approach, such a massive shift in the final weekend that moves Chuck from 25 points into last place to first, when for the last six weeks he has gone pretty much nowhere.

I just read a San Jose Mercury News article saying Fiorina is leading in all categories including the Tea Party groups. I had to laugh. Five minutes later I get the results of the Pleasanton Tea Party with about 10,000 emailed for the poll results 87% DeVore, 13% Fiorina, and 0% Campbell. Where do these people get their information? I don’t know one Tea Party member voting for Fiorina.

I wasn’t aware they had done another one. So scratch point one, but the rest of those things could still be true.

My experiences are a bit different, in that I meet Carly people and DeVore people, but virtually no Campbell people, even though he on paper seems to have more support than DeVore. When it comes down to it though, the science of polling is solid, and anecdote isn’t even science. I recall the old story about the liberal who was utterly shocked that Nixon won, because s/he did not know a single Nixon supporter. Even if they are geographically or socially separate, the overall levels of support are almost certainly somewhere similar to what they polls, taken together, find, although the effects of likely voter models and surprising turnout profiles (if they happen) still can shift things a little.

Polling has gotten much better over the years and generally they aren’t too far off from the final results. True, occasionally they miss a last-minute shift or surge, but usually in retrospect the evidence was there but missed because it was subtle – or the voter demographics were aberrant. I remember in the 2008 Presidential race reading here at RedState various reports from the field of a last-minute voter shift towards McCain that proved empty – the final margins were basically as predicted.

Given the polling margins and consistency, plus the size of the California electorate, it would take a truly monumentally unexpected demographic to end up nominating DeVore. Even more so with the expansion of absentee voting. I will proudly vote for Chuck on Tuesday (unlike the governor’s race which will be more a vote against Meg, though I’m becoming aware that Steve has picked up some good endorsements), but I don’t expect to prevail. I particularly hope it’s not a blowout.

But I’d sure like to be pleasantly surprised…

I still think it’s possible. Don’t discount the disgust that tea party folks and others like them are feeling right now. And I don’t think the moderates have the motivation and energy out there to get their people out to vote. I think De Vore had a better chance before Sarah Palin put her support toward Fiorina (which I’m still scratching my head over) but “it’s not over ’til it’s over”. I have my little arthritic fingers crossed for you. I wish I lived in California (on second thought…) so I could vote for Chuck. But we have our own uphill battle going on here in Connecticut, too. (Vote for Peter Schiff! He is the only true conservative running!) Good luck, kids!