My biggest concern with the proposed $700 billion bailout of the financial system is that it might not solve the credit crunch because it provides less than sufficient means to ensure financial institutions are able to raise capital, nor does it contain enough incentives to convince financial institutions to become more willing to lend.
Five University of Chicago’s Graduate School of Business professors, Douglas Diamond, Steve Kaplan, Anil Kashyap, Raghuram Rajan and Richard Thaler, have considered the proposed $700 billion bailout of the financial system. They find it wanting and suggest some improvements that address my concerns in a much more articulate manner than I.
The professors say that any bailout ought to fulfill at least three objectives:
1) It has to have a real chance of preventing the deep and prolonged recession that is likely to ensue if the financial system is not recapitalized.
2) It should strive to achieve that first objective at the lowest possible costs to the U.S. taxpayer.
3) It should not bail out the existing investors to avoid sowing the seeds for the next crisis.
According to the professors, the proposed big bailout plan — to buy distressed securities in the marketplace — addresses only the first objective, and only indirectly.
They agree that the problem is undercapitalization. The financial system is undercapitalized because of the losses it has sustained and because of the growing risk aversion of lenders:
Undercapitalized financial institutions are forced to try to reduce their assets, and, of course, this means they will make fewer loans, even to the healthy portions of the economy.
The proposed big bailout attempts to recapitalize financial institutions in three indirect ways:
1) By paying above the market value for illiquid assets (paying the hypothetical "held-to-maturity" value), the Treasury hopes to indirectly recapitalize institutions.
2) By creating a market for illiquid assets and allowing prices to be established, it hopes other private players will enter the market, "liquifying" the market.
3) Treasury also probably hopes that once the illiquid assets are off balance sheets, institutions will be able to raise capital, and will become more willing to lend.
The professors find that there are many ways in which the proposed big bailout could go wrong, including providing less relief to the financial institutions best able to expand lending:
The institutions with the most toxic assets are the ones that have made the worst decisions, and are likely to be the closest to default. While they may get the most relief from selling assets, they are unlikely to turn around and expand their lending quickly (nor should they, given their record). In contrast, relatively healthy financial institutions that probably have the greatest ability to expand lending may not be those getting much of the additional capital in the Treasury plan for they have few illiquid assets to sell.
Improvements suggested by the professors include:
1) Use some sort of a reverse Dutch auction without any intent to overpay. That would jumpstart the market by establishing trading prices.
2) Require all regulated financial institutions to raise 2% of their assets in additional capital over a short period.
The professors effectively articulate why financial institutions should be required to raise additional capital:
Thus far banks have been urged to voluntarily go out and raise capital, and some, including Goldman Sachs on Wednesday, have. But banks, especially some of the best managed ones, have been hesitant, in part because potential investors might view a bank’s approach to the market as reflecting the bank’s expectation that it will have to bear additional losses, which will cause them to lose confidence in the bank. The value of mandating this decision is that no individual bank sends an adverse signal to the market when it goes to raise capital.
I still don’t like the idea of our tax dollars being used to bailout the folks that caused this mess. Nevertheless, I recognize the need, both economic and political, to do something. Having conceded that point, I still hope that we will at least take enough time, have enough debate, to get this big bailout as right as we can. We can start by removing the mandate, lurking in the proposed big bailout, to fund community organizer groups that have historically supported, and in return have been supported by, the Democrats.
Steve Maley
Neil Stevens
Dan
Maggie_in_Indiana (Diary) Saturday, September 27th at 12:06PM EST (link)My biggest concern of the $700 billion bail out is 700 BILLION DOLLARS.
Our money to fix their screw up,that is hurting us. Nadda.
I’m still mad!
Maggie in Indiana
ACORN OUT
Hestrold (Diary) Saturday, September 27th at 12:10PM EST (link)Please call your Congresshack and tell them NO ACORN. It’s still on the table.
Hestrold
Seems an improvement
Whitfox (Diary) Saturday, September 27th at 12:26PM EST (link)I’d really like us not to cut off debate on a bill so quickly, but this seems a good adjustment to what’s on the table.
I’d also like to emphasize the last sentence:
“And if the financial sector is to escape the excesses of regulation that are likely to follow the recent period of under-regulation, it is extremely important that any rescue been seen as fair.”
When thinking about damage to the financial markets, don’t forget about the draconian legislation that will surely be passed in ’09. The more market forces can be used productively now, the less we’ll move towards socialism then.
Nice blog Dan, but you fail to mention the NUMBER ONE item it must not include
Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Saturday, September 27th at 12:29PM EST (link)Mortgagors that bought homes gambling they would appreciate with hopes of re-fis of homes they could not afford must NOT be allowed to be saved from foreclosure. PERIOD!
The July deal allowing ARM mortgagors to re-negotiate based on the fiction they were ignorant dupes of predators was bad enough.
Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson
I'm totally against the bailout...
Red_Wing (Diary) Saturday, September 27th at 1:39PM EST (link)…and feel like maybe we could just start by lowering the mandatory amounts of money banks are required to keep on hand by the Federal Government, that would ease liquidity.
But what’s really got me pissed is that they are going to give 20% of any potential profits to ACORN the very people who got us into this mess to begin with!
WTF!!!!
“Underlying all arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself”. ~M. Friedman
Dan, I would encourage you
Mark Reiboldt (Diary) Saturday, September 27th at 2:51PM EST (link)to read through some of my posts, as I explain this issue specifically. First, let’s start with a recent post from Greg Mankiw, which I commented on yesterday, which outlines the fact that while many academic economists do not like the Paulson Plan, the majority of economists within the financial sector support it as being the best means to address the short-term liquidity needs for the crumbling credit markets. Earlier this week, I commented on the letter to Congress from the University of Chicago professors, and while this is relevant to the discussion and I respect the academic economists’ viewpoint (indeed, I am very close to some of the top ones, at least in the UK), their ability to understand what is happening in the markets at any given time is not as good as the market analysts and financial economists working in the ‘trenches’. These folks are notorious for looking at the economy from a theoretical vaccume, and again, I am not being critical, because I respect these economists very much. But, even Mankiw has agreed that the viewpoint of these individuals and those working firsthand in the markets is different. Finally, I commented on an earlier post by Doug Diamond (who I have studied extensively and who wrote the book on financial crises) that looks at why some of these events have transpired and even though they don’t like the specific plan, he and more economists would agree that a liquidity injection will be required to stabilize the markets, and whether it’s $700b or a little less or a little more, everyone knows in the end it will cost much more to resolve this crisis.
The point here, and a key distinction you leave out of your analysis is that the bailout is not meant to ‘fix’ the crisis. Again, it will end up costing much more than $700 billion and will easily be in excess of $1 trillion. However, a bailout is needed to restore stability to our financial markets and it is the Fed’s role as the central bank to intervene as a lender of last resort when the markets are on the brink of collapse. So, this is a short term liquidity injection that is focused on equilibriating the markets, not completely fixing anything. More will have to be done and indeed we are still a long ways out from turning this thing around. Crises take capital, time and changing patterns to be turned around. Don’t expect anything to fundamentally improve until at least halfway through 2009, but the first step will be stabilizing the financial markets. If we don’t do that, then the costs of systemic risk will be much greater and not only will the price go up, but the timeline will be extended as well.
Where is the Money Coming From?
Davo (Diary) Saturday, September 27th at 3:20PM EST (link)Maybe I’m missing something or just STUPID but 0.7 trillion dollars is an increase in the budget (2.65 trillion dollars) of 26.4%. How can the federal government come up with this kind of money without further devaluing the money already in circulation. I haven’t heard anyone address this issue. A 25% increase in the supply of anything is going to reduce it’s value. Isn’t that pretty basic? And let’s be honest, it’s actually going to be well over 1.0 trillion dollars. That’s more than 33%. Are we going to need suitcases full of money to buy dinner?
Never Give In, Never, Never, Never
This deal is not inevatable
Samsara (Diary) Saturday, September 27th at 4:33PM EST (link)Granted, the most conservative and the most vulnerable GOP House members will be allowed to vote against this bailout. Still, the leadership in the House will have to put the GOP seal of approval on this thing. House Republicans would love to tap into public anger on this thing. How many House Republicans will be willing to go home and justify a bailout vote?
no ACORN
Jack (Diary) Saturday, September 27th at 4:55PM EST (link)if it means bringing down the entire economy so be it. That is a non negotiable deal. ACORN has to go.
Jack
“If at age 20 you are conservative you have no heart. It at age 30 you are liberal you have no brains.” Sir Winston Churchill
In addition to CEO's...ACORN
rockshaper Saturday, September 27th at 5:10PM EST (link)I am furious that all the attention is goig to not letting CEO’s benefit, but I don’t want the unions nor ACORN to beefit from this extortion of the taxpayers. I sent these letters to my representatives for all the good it will do;
To all Washingtonians,
The current panic in Washington DC is being exploited for controversial benefits to groups like
ACORN and labor unions. Please let your representatives know what an outrage this is to
straddle the American taxpayer under extortion measures forced by crisis situations.
This message was sent to Washington State Senator Maria Cantwell by one of her constituents;
Contact Senator Cantwell about Issues by E-mail
You can e-mail Senator Cantwell about legislative issues from this page. Washington residents who include their full name and address will receive a written response. If your e-mail regards a request for help from Senator Cantwell, visit the services section. If you wish to contact an office by phone or mail, visit the office locations page.
Senator Capwell,
I am very unhappy with Congress (both Republican and Democrat) with their complicity with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac which I believe started the downward spiral that got us in this mess. I think too many legislators are influenced by the money from the likes of Goldman Sachs and AIG. I am very opposed to ACORN or the unions or CEO’s getting any benefit from this bailout.
Please Senator Cantwell, keep us taxpayers in regard to this situation rather than ACORN or the unions or the CEO’s. I am copying this e-mail and forwarding it to the media and various political forums to see if the rest of Washington agrees with me. After what happened here with ACORN, I think that there will be quite a few people that will be infuriated to find out that these groups are involved in taking billions from the mouths of our families because we are in the furor and desperation of the current crisis. It is opportunism at it’s’ worst.
Shane Davis
L*Y, WA sent on 09/27/2008
This message was sent to Congressman Norm Dicks;
Congressman Norm Dicks (D-WA),
I am very concerned with the current bailout of the financial market. I would rather see a workout that is being suggested by House Republicans. I am furious that groups like ACORN would even dare be included in any future benefit of the taxpayers sacrifice and monetary extortion. That is what this amounts to. Every man and woman in America will be forking over money to fix this monstrosity that is the result of Wall Street greed and Washington ineptitude. Do not insult and defraud us by giving away potentially billions of dollars to such controversial groups as ACORN, especially in light of the fraud they perpetrated on us Washingtonians. I will forward this e-mail to others of interest that will be looking out for the taxpayers.
Shane Davis
L*y WA sent on 09/27/2008
Solution Should Include the FairTax!
Soulsamurai Saturday, September 27th at 7:43PM EST (link)Whatever solution(s) are settled upon should include the FairTax.
What this country needs is not a massive “bailout” which amounts to financial socialism (as one Senator put it), but rather an across the board taxpayer bailout. With this looming economic crises we need an “AMERICAN” solution (pun intended) that derives from the American value of individual liberty, rather than the Marxist value of centralized control, or the archaic rule of an elite aristocratic class that knows better than the rest of us. We need a long-term solution that amounts to financial freedom. The time for the FairTax has come. HR 25 already has about 80 sponsors. Check it out:
www.fairtax.org
Http://www.greatrancheswest.com
Making a bad deal worse!
Hammer2008 (Diary) Saturday, September 27th at 8:55PM EST (link)Figures they’d find a way to tax Wall Street. Especially sneaky how they’ll leave it to the Treasury to figure out how it wants to do it.
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Too much noise! “Noise! You’ll have noise enough before long. The Regulars are coming out.” ~ Paul Revere (April 18th, 1775′s eve…)