Here for the details

OH: 49-49 Tied

FL: 50-49 McCain

MO: 49-49 Tied

NC: 50-49 McCain

CO: 51-47 Obama

VA: 51-47 Obama

I think this is Fox and Rasmussen’s CYA poll. If he wins, they can say that undecideds broke for McCain and that Obama’s poll numbers were overestimated within the margin of error. Ha.

So, 48 hours from now, we should have a good idea of whether John McCain pulled off the impossible.

So how does he do that?

Let’s take a look at the “dire” RCP state averages.

If we assume McCain wins the states he is leading in, that is 185 electoral votes. This means he captures “battlegrounds” AZ, MT, GA, IN, and MO.

Further, let’s look at the close battlegrounds in which Obama is winning. I will note that, if you look at the RCP averages from 2004, Obama is underperforming in many of the battlegrounds compared to Bush. If Obama is truly ahead by 6 points nationally, should he not be overperforming Bush, a 2.5 point winner nationally, at the end of the election?

NC: O 47.8, M 47.5

How will NC turn out? Is the black vote underestimated? Can Obama really win this state without reaching 50% in polls before? I don’t think so. McCain’s support is also higher here than it is in other battlegrounds.

OH: O 48.8, M 44.6

This is a close state, but Obama still fails to get over the 50% mark. With Mason-Dixon showing McCain ahead now, I think we can say Ohio will go McCain.

NV: O 49.3, M 43.5

McCain’s support here is low, but Obama still fails to top 50%. But this one seems to be a bit out of reach for McCain.

VA: O 49.8, M 46.0

McCain’s support here, like NC, is higher than his national average and his averages in other battlegrounds. Moreover, just 10 days ago, Obama’s average in the RCP was 53, while McCain’s was 43. There’s a clear trend in McCain’s favor. I think undecideds put him over here.

FL: O 50.0, M 45.8

McCain’s not doing terribly here, but Obama is just at 50. If he underpolls as we many of us think he will, this could be pulled off. 4.2 gap is not that bad.

NM: O 50.3, M 43.0

This is much like Nevada, most likely out of reach.

CO: O 50.5, M 45.0

Of the three southwest states, McCain is in the best position here but…still probably out of reach.

Finally, the two “dream” states-

PA: O 51.3, M 44.0

Just a week ago, Obama led by 11 points here, 51.7 to 40.5. McCain’s gained about 4, but there are still quite a good number of undecideds left. I don’t think McCain can win here given this gap, but the trend is in his favor at this point which is encouraging.

NH: O 52.7, M 42.0

You tell me why McCain was in NH tonight. He’s down by over 10 points here. But hey, wasn’t Hillary?

**Bottom line: in order to win, McCain must

1) Win the states where he is leading, for a total of 185 electoral votes.
2) Win the states where he is trailing, but Obama is at or below 50% (except Nevada), for a total of 75 electoral votes. This brings him to 260.
3) Win some combination of: CO, NM, NV, PA, NH, states where he trails by 6-7 or more points but are close to the 50% mark.**

What does this mean? Well, if the 2004 election averages are indicative, this is doable.

FL: Bush was at 48.2. Obama is at 50.0. Bush won the state by five points.
OH: Bush was at 48.8. Obama is at 48.8. Bush won the state by two points.
MO: Bush was at 49.5. McCain is at 48.0. Bush won the state by nine points.
NV: Bush was at 51.0. Obama is at 49.3. Bush won the state by two points.
CO: Bush was at 50.0. Obama is at 50.5. Bush won the state by six points.

Do you see a pattern here? I do. It’s that Obama isn’t doing significantly better than Bush was doing in the battlegrounds four years ago.

I’m not sure what this means other than it’s a close election and the Democrats are doing better than in 2004. But if Obama is so far ahead nationally, why isn’t he so far ahead in these battlegrounds? Why isn’t he above 50% in many of them?

This is an uphill battle, no doubt. But the polls only bear out one truth: Obama has about 50% polling average nationally and in the battleground states. That’s enough to win…if the polls are correct and undecideds do not break decisively for McCain

Most accurate pollster in 2004 says it’s a two point race.

Obama 47, McCain 45

Fear not, my friends.

Where WAS this woman the past few weeks She needs to be doing this every day. On Fox, even going on to CNN and MSNBC and telling their people the truth.

A line that will live in infamy.

Does anyone else think that McCain should be, essentially, putting up ads showing angry/scary photos/video of Pelosi and Reid and Frank and Rangel, and connecting them to Obama?

Congress has a 10% approval rating. If McCain can effectively morph Congress and Obama together, he’ll give himself a chance.

The question is – does anyone in the campaign read RedState?

When is this campaign going to get serious and start hitting Obama on Wright in tv ads?

You know, McCain may lose regardless, but the people should be as informed about Obama as possible before they choose him.

Basically, it was a rehash of the Couric interview. Imagine the worst possible impression you could want Americans to have of Palin, and double it. That’s what it was.

The only hope I can have is that people will be appalled by how over the top SNL is going.

I feel like crying.

I think missing the debate will give the media ammo that they don’t need. If McCain goes to the debate, he can try to work in economic policy and take the credit for getting the ball rolling on the bailout plan.

Because of McCain’s bold move yesterday, more attention and pressure have been placed on Congress and the White House to “get it done.”

That’s probably the biggest indication that McCain has made a good choice. But he needs to go debate and stand up to the bully. If McCain is going to lose this election, it won’t be because of the debates. It’ll be because Obama is a Democrat and people don’t separate the two.

McCain needs to do whatever he can to make Obama small, tiny, and irrelevant. Barack “Call me if you need me” Obama already looks this way today. Tomorrow, McCain can expose the mask once and for all, when most voters are just starting to pay attention.

Four things have me thinking we can win Pennsylvania this election.

First, McCain is performing at least as well as Bush did in both Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Second, the NRA ads are killer, and they’re airing in PA starting today.

Third, Joe Biden’s gaffe today actually has real meaning, because it could cost him thousands of votes in Western PA: Biden says no to coal

Fourth, and most important, is that Obama was walloped in the primary and it’s apparent there are a lot of white Democrats who do not support him.

So am I just kidding myself here, but is PA starting to look more favorable to McCain than ever before?

Four things have me thinking we can win Pennsylvania this election.

First, McCain is performing at least as well as Bush did in both Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Second, the NRA ads are killer, and they’re airing in PA starting today.

Third, Joe Biden’s gaffe today actually has real meaning, because it could cost him thousands of votes in Western PA: http://hotair.com/archives/2008/09/23/video-on-clean-coal-biden-takes-bold-stand-against-um-obamas-position/

Fourth, and most important, is that Obama was walloped in the primary and it’s apparent there are a lot of white Democrats who do not support him.

So am I just kidding myself here, but is PA starting to look more favorable to McCain than ever before?

http://news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080921/NEWS0107/80921022

Impressive. She’ll make a great presidential candidate in 2012.

I am a second year law student. I’m a pretty good student with an interesting background, including having worked on a Senate campaign and gone to a fairly prestigious undergrad. Like all second year law students, I am searching for a job. But one thing I have to keep in mind are the type of people who go to law school, and eventually become lawyers. Overwhelmingly, lawyers tend to vote Democrat. But my resume is very clearly partisan; most of what I’ve done since becoming an adult has been political in some nature.

I am on a Republican island in a sea of Democrats at the law school. Between the liberal professors and the liberal student body, I spend my day either defending my views or running into situations that can depress any Republican. Signs are everywhere asking me if I want to help elect Obama, or if I want to protest Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell, or if I want to join the Law School Democrats. That’s fine, they have a right to free speech.

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ARG has their state poll numbers out today.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

Some people give ARG flack, but these numbers seem in-line with other polls right now.

The highlights:

CO: McCain +2
IL: Obama +6 (I can believe it, but no way McCain is this close on Election Day)
MO: McCain +5
MT: McCain +2
NV: McCain +3
NM: Obama +7
OH: McCain +6
WV: McCain +4 (seems a little closer than it should be)

So, assumming that the same pattern would hold in FL, McCain would win under these numbers, because Colorado is on his side.

Both Rasmussen and Gallup’s tracking polls have McCain up only 1% today. This is, as we all know, a slight decrease from McCain’s position just a week ago. So is McCain doing something wrong? Did Palin’s interview hurt? Is the Messiah working his magic again?

No.

We are seeing a natural tightening of the polls that is to be expected 10 days after the conventions ended. The race is returning to equilibrium. Do not be shocked if Obama regains a 2 to 3 point lead, which is where he was prior to the conventions. I don’t think we will see the same pattern as before, with Obama always ahead in the polls, but expect that most polls will show a +/-2 point lead or loss for either candidate. Going into next Friday’s debate, this race is deadlocked nationally.

The state-by-state race is similar. McCain’s campaign should be THRILLED that Ohio and Florida appear to be solidifying. Not having to spend as much time or resources there makes it more difficult for Obama to win. Given that states like PA, MI, MN are now back to just a slight Democratic advantage, this means McCain can afford to play on blue turf. If he can turn any one of those three, he wins, period.

But the state-by-state race also shows pitfalls for McCain. He needs to hold on to two of the three southwestern swing states: NV, NM, CO. Nevada appears to be a likely victory. New Mexico, who knows? Colorado really is the big kahuna, but I fear that the trends there favor Obama. Unless there REALLY is a 4-6% national deficiency in Obama’s numbers due to racism, this race nationally and in Colorado is very, very close.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/2909844/Barack-Obama-under-fire-for-ignoring-advice-on-how-to-beat-John-McCain.html

I’d like to see McCain pull away in October, but I don’t know if that will happen. The debates can (and hopefully will) change things.

With a new poll by Rasmussen out in New Mexico, I wanted to take a brief look at the electoral map as it stands today.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publiccontent/politics/election20082/2008presidentialelection/newmexico/election2008newmexicopresidentialelection

This is a six point improvement for McCain in what has generally been fairly reliable Obama territory. While some of it, like the national polls, is attributable to the “bounce,” it is an[other] encouraging sign for the McCain campaign.

First, the Kerry states. It seems fairly likely that Obama wins most, if not all, of the Kerry states. Yes, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are all in play (in order of likelihood of victory for McCain). If McCain can win any of those 4, he will almost certainly be elected President. More on that later.

Unfortunately this election has been centered largely around the Bush states, both due to the state of the race as well as the superior ability of the Obama campaign, until recently, to characterize the race as one on red territory. For instance, their laughable insistence that they could win in Georgia and North Carolina has generated buzz in the past. They also have talked about winning states like Indiana and Montana, which at one point seemed like a possibility.

In a close election, however, these states likely will not go blue, and recent polls in North Carolina and Montana confirm this. But there are still some states that Bush won which are open to assault. Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio, Nevada, Florida, and Virginia, to be specific (in terms of most likely for Obama to peel off).

Ohio is interesting and one with which I am familiar, as I live here. I never thought that Obama could win Ohio in a close race. I still don’t. There are too many factors for him to overcome. Also, recently it seems that the Obama campaign is realizing this (which is a mistake Gore made in 2000).

Virginia and Ohio will be close fights, within 2 points, but McCain probably wins them in a close national election. Florida…well, if McCain loses Florida, he’s losing a lot of other states at that point and none of this matters.

Finally, it comes down to Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada. Iowa probably goes Obama in a close election. Assuming that McCain does not win one of the Kerry states, he absolutely must win New Mexico or Nevada (most likely), and Colorado. What it all boils down to is Rocky Mountain Colorado, folks. If Obama can win there, he probably will win the Electoral College.

The McCain campaign needs to invest heavily in the Southwest (and Michigan). That is where the election will be won. Not in Ohio, not in Virginia.

Currently on Intrade, it’s 50.5 for McCain and 47.5 for Obama. What a turnaround. Just 2 weeks ago it was 63 to 37. Just 2 months ago McCain was around 35. And when Obama clinched the nomination, he was below 30.

Does this prove anything? Just that McCain’s fortunes have turned around and that this is now TRULY a close race – not the “close” race that people were talking about in July because Obama was “only” ahead by 5 points when it should have been by 15.

Whether McCain can maintain this over the next 50 plus days remains to be seen. I don’t see him LOSING any of the debates, nor do I see Palin underperforming in her debate. “Ties” are the most likely. But if either of them can pull off a win (or cause their opponent to gaffe, which, as we all know, is more likely than not with Obama and Biden), then they certainly can win this in a walk.