New York is a deep blue state, with a populace that says the nation is on the right track, and which gives Barack Obama high marks. That should be the perfect setting for Democratic incumbents to cruise to re-election, right?
…If a Democratic primary for Governor were held today, [incumbent Dem Governor David] Paterson would lose to Attorney General Andrew Cuomo by nearly four-to-one, and Paterson would be easily beaten in a general election by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani…
In a hypothetical 2010 Democratic primary for Governor, Cuomo leads Paterson 67-17 percent, up from last month?s 53-27 percent. In December Paterson led 49-26 percent. In a potential general election matchup, Giuliani beats Paterson 56-33 percent, up from 51-36 percent last month. Paterson led 51-38 percent in December. Cuomo leads Giuliani 51-41 percent, similar to last month?s 51-38 percent…
“New Yorkers, who give the President a 70-23 percent favorable rating, believe the country is headed on the right track, however, they say the Empire State is headed in the wrong direction,” Greenberg said…
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has a 26-20 percent favorable rating (down from 34-20 percent last month), with 54 percent of voters having no opinion. Former Governor George Pataki has a 49-41 percent favorable rating. While 23 percent of voters are prepared to elect Gillibrand in 2010, 37 percent prefer “someone else.? In hypothetical match-ups, Gillibrand beats Rep. Peter King 47-23 percent (up from 40-27 percent last month) and is in a dead heat (41-41 percent) against Pataki.
There are a few things to take away from this. First and foremost, the people of New York think Barack Obama is doing a bang-up job, and that he’s already got the country turned around. Yet right now Paterson and Gillibrand look extremely vulnerable even as they bask in Obama’s glow. Does anyone think Obama will have a 70 percent approval rating in New York in November 2010? If his approval rating falls, Paterson and Gillibrand could see their standing slide further.
Further, Republicans might be out-of-luck if they hope to beat Paterson in the general election; he seems to have little chance of besting Cuomo in a primary, if the state Attorney General challenges him. Still, Rudy Giuliani seems a strong contender against Paterson or Cuomo – assuming he chooses to run.
With regard to Peter King, I caution against reading too much into his relatively weak performance against Gillibrand, as his name ID in the state is quite low. (Siena doesn’t poll it.) If he runs for the Senate that will change.
Lastly, Siena doesn’t poll on Chuck Schumer’s re-election bid. It’s hard to see his race being competitive, except in a 1994-style Republican romp. Still, given the clear dissatisfaction with 2 of the 3 Democrats running statewide next year, it would be interesting to see how Schumer is doing.
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Dan McLaughlin
Neil Stevens
Daniel Horowitz
Governor's Race
Jingles (Diary) Monday, March 23rd at 4:24PM EST (link)Patterson will be crushed by Cuomo in the primary. Cuomo, for good or ill, is riding a pretty strong populist wave with the whole Merril/AIG Bonus flap. Unless he has a hooker problem, I don’t see Guiliani running. But, then again, it’s at least 3 or 4 months until the race gets real.
Interesting...
SecularRepublican Monday, March 23rd at 4:29PM EST (link)I think our best hope is that Cuomo decides to sit out leaving Patterson as a sacrificial lamb against Rudy. Rudy is incredibly popular in Upstate New York, and we know he can carry the five boroughs of NYC (something not easily done for a Republican). Depending on how the country looks in the fall of 2010, we could be looking at pick-ups in both the governor’s mansion and the junior senator’s seat. King could definitely take out Gillebrand. He should do better than most Republicans downstate as he’s from Long Island and upstate tends to be more red than blue, although it’s been trending Democratic lately. These will be two great races to watch in the future. Thanks for the update!
Carry the 5 Boroughs?
zarathustra57 Monday, March 23rd at 6:12PM EST (link)I wouldn’t be too confident of Rudy’s chances in the Bronx, Brooklyn or Manhattan. (The 1997 race was a looong time ago, with the lowest turnout in a decade, and Messinger was basically thrown to the wolves…)
The Tedisco race
paulincolo (Diary) Monday, March 23rd at 4:38PM EST (link)will give us an early indication whether or not there really is any chance for a Repub pickup in this state.
I always wonder in states that are basically one-party rule (NY, ILL, MI, CA) why individual voters don’t come to the conclusion that there can be no change when there is no fear for the incumbent of losing. Detroit is basically becoming a vast wasteland, yet the same people and party continue to win the votes. How bad does it have to get?
Are we better off with Sen. Gillibrand or Sen. Pataki?
Illinicon (Diary) Monday, March 23rd at 5:35PM EST (link)If Pataki were able to defeat King in the primary, wouldnt Gillibrand be the more conservative of the two candidates running?
My Potus shortlist
declared candidates:
1. Tim Pawlenty
2. Herman Cain
3. Gary Johnson
4. Rick Santorum
among declared and rumored candidates:
1. Rick Perry
2. Tim Pawlenty
3. Rudy Giuilani
4. Herman Cain
Make no mistake -- Gillibrand has some conservative bona fides (which is how she managed to win dist. 20 in the first place)...
randy streu (Diary) Monday, March 23rd at 5:40PM EST (link)but when push comes to shove, she votes like the democrat she is.
We need to put one of our people in.
Honestly, I don’t think Pataki can beat King in the primary.
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Pataki.
Moe Lane (Diary) Monday, March 23rd at 7:13PM EST (link)He’ll caucus with the GOP.
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My (combined) wish list.
King
Dan McLaughlin (Diary) Monday, March 23rd at 10:12PM EST (link)Yup. But I prefer King in a number of ways. And frankly I think King would be a better candidate despite being pro-life and a hard-core hawk.
“No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong.” – Winston Churchill
America's Mayor
mbauer (Diary) Monday, March 23rd at 5:33PM EST (link)He may not have been my top choice for president- but one of the things I am cheering for most is his election as governor in 2010.
I did want Rudy to run for Gov in 2010... but he's been sitting on his hands.
randy streu (Diary) Monday, March 23rd at 5:37PM EST (link)he’s been making me wonder, frankly, if he’s got the backbone I had always assumed he had.
I hope so, though. Of everyone who’s been named, he’s still by far the best choice — and our best chance.
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The thing most dont realize about NY
sconklin (Diary) Monday, March 23rd at 6:05PM EST (link)Although NY is a blue state. It is red above the Tappen Zee bridge. When Rick Lazio ran against Hillary Clinton he won over 70% of the upstate vote. Problem is Hillary won more than 70% of NYC votes. I think if Giulliani ran for Gov he would neutralize some of the NYC votes
Same goes for Illinois
Finrod (Diary) Monday, March 23rd at 7:14PM EST (link)Once you get outside of Chicagoland, Illinois is at least nominally red. Not as red as Indiana but more than Ohio, and probably comparable to Missouri.
Let’s get down to brass tacks here. How much for the ape?
And The Same Goes For CA, WA & OR
IJB Tuesday, March 24th at 1:13AM EST (link)But it doesn’t matter – the inland areas of these states, just like downstate IL, and upstate NY, are such a minority of these states’ populations that they are incapable of being political drivers for these states.
I sometimes think it would be better if they areas just succeeded from the states they’re a part of, and apply for separate statehood in The Union.
Sorta
Dan McLaughlin (Diary) Monday, March 23rd at 10:20PM EST (link)Upstate is dying, literally – the demographics are like Russia. Which leaves old folks on fixed incomes in towns with no businesses. That’s not a great landscape for Republicans.
“No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong.” – Winston Churchill
yes and no, Dan...
randy streu (Diary) Monday, March 23rd at 10:29PM EST (link)It’s true there is a growing sentiment toward big government mentality in Upstate, but it’s still pretty Conservative.
The narrative up here, for the most part though, remains that the BIG problem in Upstate IS government interference. The State won’t leave us alone. The State taxes and regulates the hell out of us. Even the farmers up here are getting sick of the lib government — they just have to be reminded that THAT’s what they’re sick of.
For all the elderly getting disillusioned up here, I think you’re also going to see a growing number of young and middle-aged who are willing to fight to keep the Nanny State out of our back yards.
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Turn NY Red!
angryred Monday, March 23rd at 6:17PM EST (link)As a lifelong Bronx resident, I like to hope one day NY will revert to some sort of sanity. Paterson wasn’t elected, so no one feels much loyalty to him. Cuomo has the family name. Giuliani has success and some left leaning social tendencies….
1-20-13 Hope for Change
I think you may be correct
tarheels23 Monday, March 23rd at 7:31PM EST (link)(liberal poster)
This state could be there for the taking, provided no trace of social conservatism finds its way onto the ballot.
The one issue for Rudy is that his somewhat nasty speech at the RNC against Obama could become a liability as long as Obama remains popular in NYC. Rudy is more widely disliked in the city now than he was a decade ago.
Should be very interesting to follow.
Yawn.
randy streu (Diary) Monday, March 23rd at 10:31PM EST (link)Bored now.
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interesting
mbauer (Diary) Monday, March 23rd at 11:04PM EST (link)I’d like to see some polling on this.
Schumer's crooked financiers
charliebravoNH (Diary) Monday, March 23rd at 7:45PM EST (link)Schumer could be vulnerable based on his contributors. The worst and most recent was Bernie Madoff. Some others on this list are
ARTHUR ANDERSEN PAC
BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION STATE AND FEDERAL PAC
ENRON CORP POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE INC.
GLOBAL CROSSING DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE
MERRILL LYNCH & CO, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE
BEAR STEARNS & CO INC POLITICAL CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE FKA BEAR STEARNS PCC
LAY, KENNETH L
SKILLING, JEFFREY K
This guy is a dirt pile. The NYGOP should dig big time.
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On NY
dld1717 (Diary) Monday, March 23rd at 8:46PM EST (link)I live in NYC Patterson is toast we can only hope a bitter nasty primary happens with some racial undertones that aren’t fully able to heal; although with Rudy the GOP nominee it would probably unite the quickly.
Gillibrand is tied to Patterson its going to be a nasty primary. It depends on who runs and how many. The more batter she is the better it is for a Peter King or Patacki.
The only thing I worry about with King is his persona its hard to take for some.
Bottom line keeping these races competitive with hopefully help us win back some congressional seats in the state we lost the past 2 cycles.
Someone with Dem ties
BlueStateSaint Tuesday, March 24th at 5:16AM EST (link)One of the guys in the deer camp I’m in (in the Adirondacks) is a big-time, true-blue Dem, and he told me that he thinks that the NY-20 race is going to go to Tedisco. Don’t know if that’s the case at the moment, but coming from him, it’s encouraging. This guy was also a big Kerry supporter in ’04, and he confided in me a few days before the election that he thought President Bush was going to win re-election. FWIW, I suppose.