Roll Call reports on the widely-anticipated announcement of Representative Kirsten Gillibrand’s elevation to the Senate, and the special election that is likely to follow. This looks like an excellent opportunity for a Republican pickup — as the district is reported to have a Republican advantage of roughly 3 points:
According to several political sources in upstate New York, state Sen. Betty Little (R) has begun talking to local GOP leaders about making the race.
But the Republicans could have an abundance of candidates, including Sandy Treadwell, a wealthy former New York GOP chairman who took 38 percent of the vote against Gillibrand in November. Treadwell spent almost $6 million of his own money on the race last year, and his personal wealth could give him an edge in a special election.
Former state Assembly Minority Leader John Faso (R), who was almost elected state comptroller in 2002 and was clobbered as the GOP nominee for governor in 2006, has been contemplating a political comeback and may see a race for Gillibrand’s seat as a way back in the political game.
Also mentioned is state Sen. Steven Saland (R). State legislators like Saland and Little would not have to sacrifice their seats to run in a special election.
The list of obvious potential Democratic contenders for the seat is shorter, though state Assemblyman Tim Gordon has been mentioned. Gordon, a member of the Independence Party, was elected to a GOP-leaning seat in 2006 with the support of Democrats. While he lives just outside of the 20th district, his legislative district overlaps with portions of the 20th.
It is also possible that some of the Democrats who were primary runners-up to now-Rep. Paul Tonko (D-N.Y.) in the adjoining 21st district may try their luck in the 20th. Tracey Brooks, the ambitious former Clinton Senate aide who finished second to Tonko in the primary and is close to Gillibrand’s political team, is certain to be mentioned.
Another long-shot possibility for the Democrats is former star New York Rangers goalie Mike Richter, who owns a home in the Adirondack Mountains. Richter has pondered running for Congress in Connecticut during the past few election cycles.
I note that Roll Call fails to mention the possibility that Assembly Republican Leader Jim Tedisco will run. There are already reports that Tedisco is making calls to gauge support. What do we think of Little, Faso, Tedisco, Treadwell, et al? Feedback is welcome in the comment section.
Another thing to watch for in any special election is the extent to which it smokes out possible Republican candidates for 2010. If Peter King, Rick Lazio, and potentially Rudy Giuliani have an interest in seeking statewide office in the next cycle, expect them to work for the Republican candidate in New York’s 20th district.
Steve Maley
Neil Stevens
Daniel Horowitz
so happy
angryred Friday, January 23rd at 9:07AM EST (link)Any republican elected any where in the state of NY is wonderful news. We are so far down the democratic rat hole it’s not funny.
1-20-13 Hope for Change
We can win this back
dld1717 (Diary) Friday, January 23rd at 9:07AM EST (link)We have multiple good candidates but we need to avoid a primary
Treadwell is not good choice he lost bad and spent a whole lot
Faso and Tedisco may be our best candidates although Little may be a good one too ( not too sure about her)
R+3?
BlueLandRed (Diary) Friday, January 23rd at 10:26AM EST (link)So I don’t want to be a downer, but that R+3 that Cook is using is calculated from 2004 and 2000 data, right? I suspect when they recalculate, dropping 2000 and adding in 2008, it won’t be R+3, it will be a closer to even. And Gillibrand did win by 62 to 38, so while it’s a chance to pick up a seat, it is far from a gimme.
Re: R+3
Brian Faughnan (Diary) Friday, January 23rd at 10:32AM EST (link)I suspect you’re right — that recent elections will shift that R+3 more toward a tie. That said, to the extent that the number reflects the results of recent elections, it will (God-willing) understate the ‘natural’ Republican performance in the district because of the weight it gives the last 2 Democratic landslides.
In sports they say that you’re never as good as you look when you’re winning, or as bad as you look when you’re losing. Whatever Gillibrand’s district may have done in the last few years, we can hope that the Democratic tide has subsided somewhat in a month or two, when any election is (presumably) likely to be held.
It Really Does Depend When The Special Is Held...
IJB Friday, January 23rd at 10:53AM EST (link)If the Special Election for this district is held in March, there may not be enough time for a place like NY to trend away from Obama.
But if the Special is held in more like June or July, I’d say the odds of it swinging back to the GOP increase significantly.
Patterson doesn't care....
JLenardDetroit (Diary) Friday, January 23rd at 5:39PM EST (link)IMO, it was all just his (and handlers, coat-tail leeches, etc) CYA (well, their hindsides of course) to garner (Dems, Indies, and any RINO) votes from upstate in his attempt to get elected as Governor AND that they probably think it will be easy for some Progressive to knock Kirsten off when she would have to actually get elected…. all just calculation as the vote in the Senate is not crucial now with the numbers they have….
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Republican Candidates Lining UP
dld1717 (Diary) Friday, January 23rd at 8:11PM EST (link)Little is in
Faso is in
Tedisco ( current minority leader in House) is in
Treadwell is in
We are going to have bitter primary
For the Dems:
They are looking to have Fmr Goalie for Rangers Richter to run
And also Benita Zahn, who’s a news reporter in the Albany market.
Also some Dems who ran in 21st Congressional district may run